Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.

Effects of unit - based pricing on the waste collection demand : a meta - regression analysis

We perform a meta - analysis of 21 studies that estimate the elasticity of the price of waste collection demand upon waste quantities, a prior literature review having revealed that the price elasticity differs markedly. Based on a meta - regression with a total of 65 observations, we find no indication that municipal data give higher estimates for price elasticities than those associated with household data. Furthermore, there is no evidence that treating prices as exogenous underestimates the price elasticity. We find that much of the variation can be explained by sample size, the use of a weight - based as opposed to a volume - based pricing system, and the pricing of compostable waste. We also show that price elasticities determined in the USA and point estimations of elasticities are more elastic, but these effects are not robust to the changing of model specifications. Finally, our tests show that there is no evidence of publication bias while there is some evidence of the existence of genuine empirical effect.

HIV-1 Transmission During Recent Infection and During Treatment Interruptions as Major Drivers of New Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Reducing the fraction of transmissions during recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is essential for the population-level success of "treatment as prevention". METHODS: A phylogenetic tree was constructed with 19 604 Swiss sequences and 90 994 non-Swiss background sequences. Swiss transmission pairs were identified using 104 combinations of genetic distance (1%-2.5%) and bootstrap (50%-100%) thresholds, to examine the effect of those criteria. Monophyletic pairs were classified as recent or chronic transmission based on the time interval between estimated seroconversion dates. Logistic regression with adjustment for clinical and demographic characteristics was used to identify risk factors associated with transmission during recent or chronic infection. FINDINGS: Seroconversion dates were estimated for 4079 patients on the phylogeny, and comprised between 71 (distance, 1%; bootstrap, 100%) to 378 transmission pairs (distance, 2.5%; bootstrap, 50%). We found that 43.7% (range, 41%-56%) of the transmissions occurred during the first year of infection. Stricter phylogenetic definition of transmission pairs was associated with higher recent-phase transmission fraction. Chronic-phase viral load area under the curve (adjusted odds ratio, 3; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-5.48) and time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) start (adjusted odds ratio 1.4/y; 1.11-1.77) were associated with chronic-phase transmission as opposed to recent transmission. Importantly, at least 14% of the chronic-phase transmission events occurred after the transmitter had interrupted ART. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate a high fraction of transmission during recent HIV infection but also chronic transmissions after interruption of ART in Switzerland. Both represent key issues for treatment as prevention and underline the importance of early diagnosis and of early and continuous treatment.

The environmental effects of changing speed limits: a quantile regression approach

Two speed management policies were implemented in the metropolitan area of Barcelona aimed at reducing air pollution concentration levels. In 2008, the maximum speed limit was reduced to 80 km/h and, in 2009, a variable speed system was introduced on some metropolitan motorways. This paper evaluates whether such policies have been successful in promoting cleaner air, not only in terms of mean pollutant levels but also during high and low pollution episodes. We use a quantile regression approach for fixed effect panel data. We find that the variable speed system improves air quality with regard to the two pollutants considered here, being most effective when nitrogen oxide levels are not too low and when particulate matter concentrations are below extremely high levels. However, reducing the maximum speed limit from 120/100 km/h to 80 km/h has no effect – or even a slightly increasing effect –on the two pollutants, depending on the pollution scenario. Length: 32 pages

A Hierarchical Approach for Multi-task Logistic Regression

Peer-reviewed

Aplicació web responsiva amb CodeIgniter i Bootstrap

Els objectius que es pretenen aconseguir mitjançant la realització d'aquest treball són els següents: 1. Posar en pràctica coneixements adquirits al llarg de la carrera sobre enginyeria del programari i tècniques de desenvolupament. 2. Aprofundir en tecnologies responsives per al desenvolupament de solucions de gestió, prenent com a referència una plantilla basada en Bootstrap. 3. Demostrar la validesa del paradigma MVC com a fonament arquitectural d'una aplicació de gestió. 4. Demostrar la solvència dels "frameworks" CodeIgniter i Bootstrap per a la implantació d'aquest tipus de solucions distribuïdes.

Role of PheE15 gate in ligand entry and nitric oxide detoxification function of Mycobacterium tuberculosis truncated hemoglobin N

The truncated hemoglobin N, HbN, of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is endowed with a potent nitric oxide dioxygenase (NOD) activity that allows it to relieve nitrosative stress and enhance in vivo survival of its host. Despite its small size, the protein matrix of HbN hosts a two-branched tunnel, consisting of orthogonal short and long channels, that connects the heme active site to the protein surface. A novel dual-path mechanism has been suggested to drive migration of O(2) and NO to the distal heme cavity. While oxygen migrates mainly by the short path, a ligand-induced conformational change regulates opening of the long tunnel branch for NO, via a phenylalanine (PheE15) residue that acts as a gate. Site-directed mutagenesis and molecular simulations have been used to examine the gating role played by PheE15 in modulating the NOD function of HbN. Mutants carrying replacement of PheE15 with alanine, isoleucine, tyrosine and tryptophan have similar O(2)/CO association kinetics, but display significant reduction in their NOD function. Molecular simulations substantiated that mutation at the PheE15 gate confers significant changes in the long tunnel, and therefore may affect the migration of ligands. These results support the pivotal role of PheE15 gate in modulating the diffusion of NO via the long tunnel branch in the oxygenated protein, and hence the NOD function of HbN.

Crassostrea patagonica (d'Orbigny, 1842) shell concentrations from the late Miocene Rio Negro province, NE Patagonia, Argentina

The Río Negro Formation (late Miocene-early Pliocene) mainly consists of continental deposits, but it contains a middle member of marine origin. It represents a transgressive-regressive sequence that can be seen at several outcrops along the N Patagonian coast. The taphonomical approach to the El Espigón marine deposits permits the identification of four main layers containing different kinds of skeletal accumulation, which mainly consist of oyster shells [Crassostrea patagonica (D'Orbigny, 1842)]. These concentrations display three different morphologies (pouches, pavements and bouquets) with a different taphonomic signature. These deposits were formed in shallow marine environments influenced by wave activity that produced valve concentrations of different entities. They contain several shell beds that represent event, composite, hiatal to lag skeletal concentrations. Traces of bioturbation in the sediment (Thalassinoides, Teichichnus) and bioerosion on the shells (Entobia, Gastrochaeonolites, Caulostrepsis), and encrusters (cirripeds, bryozoans), are also abundant in the outcrop and consititue common components of these Miocene materials. Layers 1 and 2 of the sequence were deposited in shoreface/foreshore environments at the beginning of a highstand systems tract, while layers 3 and 4 were deposited at the end, or at the beginning of a forced regression, in foreshore environments. A final erosional episode cut the top of the layer 4, which truncated the abundant bioturbaation developed there.

Regression analysis of compositional data when both the dependent variable and independent variable are components

It is well known that regression analyses involving compositional data need special attention because the data are not of full rank. For a regression analysis where both the dependent and independent variable are components we propose a transformation of the components emphasizing their role as dependent and independent variables. A simple linear regression can be performed on the transformed components. The regression line can be depicted in a ternary diagram facilitating the interpretation of the analysis in terms of components. An exemple with time-budgets illustrates the method and the graphical features

The causal factors of international inequality in CO2 emissions per capita: a regression-based inequality decomposition analysis

This paper uses the possibilities provided by the regression-based inequality decomposition (Fields, 2003) to explore the contribution of different explanatory factors to international inequality in CO2 emissions per capita. In contrast to previous emissions inequality decompositions, which were based on identity relationships (Duro and Padilla, 2006), this methodology does not impose any a priori specific relationship. Thus, it allows an assessment of the contribution to inequality of different relevant variables. In short, the paper appraises the relative contributions of affluence, sectoral composition, demographic factors and climate. The analysis is applied to selected years of the period 1993–2007. The results show the important (though decreasing) share of the contribution of demographic factors, as well as a significant contribution of affluence and sectoral composition.

Optimization of wood flour acetylation by factorial design and partial least squares regression

Acetylation was performed to reduce the polarity of wood and increase its compatibility with polymer matrices for the production of composites. These reactions were performed first as a function of acetic acid and anhydride concentration in a mixture catalyzed by sulfuric acid. A concentration of 50%/50% (v/v) of acetic acid and anhydride was found to produced the highest conversion rate between the functional groups. After these reactions, the kinetics were investigated by varying times and temperatures using a 3² factorial design, and showed time was the most relevant parameter in determining the conversion of hydroxyl into carbonyl groups.