Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change

This paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic 1 qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.

Testing the quick meal hypothesis: the effect of pulp on hoarding and seed predation of Hymenaea courbaril by red-rumped agoutis (Dasyprocta leporina)

Red-rumped agoutis (Dasyprocta leporina) are important seed dispersers/predators of Neotropical large-seeded plants. Several species of seeds cached by agoutis have an edible reward, in contrast to temperate rodent-dispersed diaspores. The quick meal hypothesis states that the presence of a reward such as edible pulp will enhance the efficiency of rodents as seed disperses by satiating the animal and, consequently, reducing seed predation and enhancing hoarding. In this study, this hypothesis was tested using as the reference system the pulp and seeds of Hymenaea courbaril. Seeds with and without pulp were offered to agoutis and the behaviour of each individual was recorded. Since the probability of predation and hoarding were complementary, we used the probability of predation. The proportion of agoutis that preyed on at least one seed was similar for seeds with (42.8% of individuals) and without (40.0% of individuals) pulp. In agoutis that preyed upon at least one seed, the probability that they killed a seed did not differ between seeds with (0.17 +/- 0.03) and without (0.20 +/- 0.08) pulp. Hence, these results do not support the 'quick meal hypothesis'.

Testing the ecomorphological hypothesis in a headwater riffles fish assemblage of the rio São Francisco, southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Intraspecific variability in the basal metabolic rate: Testing the food habits hypothesis

Several competing hypotheses attempt to explain how environmental conditions affect mass-independent basal metabolic rate (BMR) in mammals. One of the most inclusive and yet debatable hypotheses is the one that associates BMR with food habits, including habitat productivity. These effects have been widely investigated at the interspecific level under the assumption that for any given species all traits are fixed. Consequently, the variation among individuals is largely ignored. Intraspecific analysis of physiological traits has the potential to compensate for many of the pitfalls associated with interspecific analyses and, thus, to be a useful approach for evaluating hypotheses regarding metabolic adaptation. In this study, we investigated the effects of food quality, availability, and predictability on the BMR of the leaf-eared mouse Phyllotis darwini. BMR was measured on freshly caught animals from the field, since they experience natural seasonal variations in environmental factors ( and, hence, variations in habitat productivity) and diet quality. BMR was significantly correlated with the proportion of dietary plants and seeds. In addition, BMR was significantly correlated with monthly habitat productivity. Path analysis indicated that, in our study, habitat productivity was responsible for the observed changes in BMR, while diet per se had no effect on this variable.

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).

Schizophrenia, brain disease and meta-analyses: Integrating the pieces and testing Fusar-Poli`s hypothesis

This paper aims to discuss and test the hypothesis raised by Fusar-Poli [Fusar-Poli P. Can neuroimaging prove that schizophrenia is a brain disease? A radical hypothesis. Medical Hypotheses in press, corrected proof] that ""on the basis of the available imaging literature there is no consistent evidence to reject the radical and provocative hypothesis that schizophrenia is not a brain disease"". To achieve this goal, all meta-analyses on `fMRI and schizophrenia` published during the current decade and indexed in Pubmed were summarized, as much as some other useful information, e.g., meta-analyses on genetic risk factors. Our main conclusion is that the literature fully supports the hypothesis that schizophrenia is a syndrome (not a disease) associated with brain abnormalities, despite the fact that there is no singular and reductionist pathway from the nosographic entity (schizophrenia) to its causes. This irreducibility is due to the fact that the syndrome has more than one dimension (e.g., cognitive, psychotic and negative) and each of them is related to abnormalities in specific neuronal networks. A psychiatric diagnosis is a statistical procedure; these dimensions are not identically represented in each diagnosticated case and this explains the existence of more than one pattern of brain abnormalities related to schizophrenia. For example, chronification is associated with negativism while the first psychotic episode is not; in that sense, the same person living with schizophrenia may reveal different symptoms and fMRI patterns along the course of his life, and this is precisely what defines schizophrenia since the time when it was called Dementia Praecox (first by pick then by Kraepelin). It is notable that 100% of the collected meta-analyses on `fMRI and schizophrenia` reveal positive findings. Moreover, all meta-analyses that found positive associations between schizophrenia and genetic risk factors have to do with genes (SNPs) especially activated in neuronal tissue of the central nervous system (CNS), suggesting that, to the extent these polymorphisms are related to schizophrenia`s etiology, they are also related to abnormal brain activity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing allele homogeneity: the problem of nested hypotheses

Background: The evaluation of associations between genotypes and diseases in a case-control framework plays an important role in genetic epidemiology. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the homogeneity of both genotypic and allelic frequencies. The traditional test that is used to check allelic homogeneity is known to be valid only under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, a property that may not hold in practice. Results: We first describe the flaws of the traditional (chi-squared) tests for both allelic and genotypic homogeneity. Besides the known problem of the allelic procedure, we show that whenever these tests are used, an incoherence may arise: sometimes the genotypic homogeneity hypothesis is not rejected, but the allelic hypothesis is. As we argue, this is logically impossible. Some methods that were recently proposed implicitly rely on the idea that this does not happen. In an attempt to correct this incoherence, we describe an alternative frequentist approach that is appropriate even when Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium does not hold. It is then shown that the problem remains and is intrinsic of frequentist procedures. Finally, we introduce the Full Bayesian Significance Test to test both hypotheses and prove that the incoherence cannot happen with these new tests. To illustrate this, all five tests are applied to real and simulated datasets. Using the celebrated power analysis, we show that the Bayesian method is comparable to the frequentist one and has the advantage of being coherent. Conclusions: Contrary to more traditional approaches, the Full Bayesian Significance Test for association studies provides a simple, coherent and powerful tool for detecting associations.

Testing the allegiance bias hypothesis: a meta-analysis

This meta-analysis investigated whether the association between researcher allegiance (RA) and the relative effect of two psychotherapies can be explained through the methodological weaknesses of the treatment comparisons. Seventy-nine comparisons of psychotherapies for depression or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) were included. Methodological quality (MQ) was investigated as both a moderator and a mediator of the RA-outcome association. MQ included balanced nonspecific factors, balanced specific factors, conceptual quality, patients-per-therapist ratio, randomization to conditions and outcome assessment. The RA-outcome association was stronger when the MQ was low, suggesting a buffering effect of MQ. In addition, differences in the conceptual quality of treatments mediated the effect of RA on outcome. The results support the view that RA acts as a bias in treatment comparisons.

Testing the TICT State Hypothesis: an Investigation into the Solvatochromic Behavior of 2-Naphthalenylmethylene Malononitrile

Towards the goal of investigating the possible Twisted Intramolecular Charge Transfer (TICT) state mechanism of fluorescence emission, two aromatic dicyanovinyl compounds, 2-(naphthalene-2-ylmethylene) malononitrile (DCN) and a rigidified analogue, 3,4-dihydrophenanthren-1(2H)-ylidene)malononitrile (RDCN) were synthesized and their absorption and steady-state fluorescence emission spectra characterized. The spectral characterization was divided into two studies: first, DCN and RDCN were characterized in liquid solvents of increasing polarity; second, DCN and RDCN were characterized in viscous solvents and rigid glass media. The absorption spectra for both DCN and RDCN in all solvents demonstrated little to no solvatochromism. Emission results for DCN and RDCN in liquid solvents of increasing polarity showed DCN possessing strong solvatochromism while RDCN showed much less solvatochromism. Using the Lippert-Mataga equation, the difference between the ground and excited state dipole moment for DCN was estimated to be 8.4 + 0.4 Debye and between ~3.0 to 5.0 Debye for RDCN. Quantum yield measurements for DCN and RDCN in hexane, diethyl ether and acetonitrile were less than 0.01 and independent of polarity for both both solvents, with DCN generally possessing a quantum yield 3-4 times greater than RDCN. Experiments in glass media for DCN and RDCN showed a lessening of their solvatochromic character in both polar and non-polar glasses. These data provide strong evidence for a link between molecular flexibility and solvatochromism. However, while these data are consistent with a TICT state hypothesis for the emission mechanism, an alternative mechanism proposed by Maroncelli et al.10 involving rotation about the dicyanovinyl double bond in the excited state remains a possibility as well.

Multiple Testing With an Empirical Alternative Hypothesis

An optimal multiple testing procedure is identified for linear hypotheses under the general linear model, maximizing the expected number of false null hypotheses rejected at any significance level. The optimal procedure depends on the unknown data-generating distribution, but can be consistently estimated. Drawing information together across many hypotheses, the estimated optimal procedure provides an empirical alternative hypothesis by adapting to underlying patterns of departure from the null. Proposed multiple testing procedures based on the empirical alternative are evaluated through simulations and an application to gene expression microarray data. Compared to a standard multiple testing procedure, it is not unusual for use of an empirical alternative hypothesis to increase by 50% or more the number of true positives identified at a given significance level.

Do implicit motives and basic psychological needs interact to predict well-being and flow? Testing a universal hypothesis and a matching hypothesis

Self-Determination Theory (Deci and Ryan in Intrinsic motivation and self-determination in human behavior. Plenum Press, New York, 1985) suggests that certain experiences, such as competence, are equally beneficial to everyone’s well-being (universal hypothesis), whereas Motive Disposition Theory (McClelland in Human motivation. Scott, Foresman, Glenview, IL, 1985) predicts that some people, such as those with a high achievement motive, should benefit particularly from such experiences (matching hypothesis). Existing research on motives as moderators of the relationship between basic need satisfaction and positive outcomes supports both these seemingly inconsistent views. Focusing on the achievement motive, we sought to resolve this inconsistency by considering the specificity of the outcome variables. When predicting domain-specific well-being and flow, the achievement motive should interact with felt competence. However, when it comes to predicting general well-being and flow, felt competence should unfold its effects without being moderated by the achievement motive. Two studies confirmed these assumptions indicating that the universal and matching hypotheses are complementary rather than mutually exclusive.

High-school students' need for cognition, self-control capacity, and school achievement: testing a mediation hypothesis

In the present article, we examine the hypothesis that high-school students' motivation to engage in cognitive endeavors (i.e., their need for cognition; NFC) is positively related to their dispositional self-control capacity. Furthermore, we test the prediction that the relation between NFC and school achievement is mediated by self-control capacity. A questionnaire study with grade ten high-school students (N = 604) revealed the expected relations between NFC, self-control capacity, and school achievement. Sobel tests showed that self-control capacity mediated the relation between NFC and school grades as well as grade retention.

Testing the Cambrian explosion hypothesis by using a molecular dating technique

Molecular studies have the potential to shed light on the origin of the animal phyla by providing independent estimates of the divergence times, but have been criticized for failing to account adequately for variation in rate of evolution. A method of dating divergence times from molecular data addresses the criticisms of earlier studies and provides more realistic, but wider, confidence intervals. The data are not compatible with the Cambrian explosion hypothesis as an explanation for the origin of metazoan phyla, and provide additional support for an extended period of Precambrian metazoan diversification.