20th century intraseasonal Asian monsoon dynamics viewed from Isomap

The Asian summer monsoon is a high dimensional and highly nonlinear phenomenon involving considerable moisture transport towards land from the ocean, and is critical for the whole region. We have used daily ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies to the seasonal cycle, over the region 50-145°E, 20°S-35°N to study the nonlinearity of the Asian monsoon using Isomap. We have focused on the two-dimensional embedding of the SLP anomalies for ease of interpretation. Unlike the unimodality obtained from tests performed in empirical orthogonal function space, the probability density function, within the two-dimensional Isomap space, turns out to be bimodal. But a clustering procedure applied to the SLP data reveals support for three clusters, which are identified using a three-component bivariate Gaussian mixture model. The modes are found to appear similar to active and break phases of the monsoon over South Asia in addition to a third phase, which shows active conditions over the Western North Pacific. Using the low-level wind field anomalies the active phase over South Asia is found to be characterised by a strengthening and an eastward extension of the Somali jet whereas during the break phase the Somali jet is weakened near southern India, while the monsoon trough in northern India also weakens. Interpretation is aided using the APHRODITE gridded land precipitation product for monsoon Asia. The effect of large-scale seasonal mean monsoon and lower boundary forcing, in the form of ENSO, is also investigated and discussed. The outcome here is that ENSO is shown to perturb the intraseasonal regimes, in agreement with conceptual ideas.

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

Children’s literature: sexual identity, gender and childhood

On the twenty-third of May 2015, Ireland became the first country to legalise same-sex marriage by popular vote. This event reversed a large part, if not all, of Ireland’s reputation for a Catholic-led conservatism concerning sexual and gender identities. I argue in this article that we can see a parallel-in-miniature to this momentous shift in something of a reversal of children’s literature’s views in this respect too, and I will concentrate on exploring what is at stake in the ways that childhood, sexual and gender identities are constructed in some recent children’s literature criticism in the light of these shifts. My interest is to consider: what is the ever-burgeoning interest in the gay, queer, cross-dressing, transsexual or transgender child precisely about? I ask this question on the grounds of not assuming that this interest in these identities arises necessarily simply out of a self-evident, progressive, liberatory impulse, and, alongside this, I also do not assume that ‘identities’ are essential, self-organised traits awaiting revelation and liberation.

'Off with his head!' : Inexplicable Faith in Bulgakov's Master and Margarita

Examining how, in the novel, Bulgakov shows the conflict between logic and faith through the actions of his characters : the characters who are logical are generally not portrayed as wise and are said to not appreciate, nor understand, faith.

Upside Down World -- the Opposition Between Light and Dark in Bulgakov's Master and Margarita

A look at the role that symbolism plays in the novel. In this case, as it is in many other great novels, we see that symbolism is used to enhance the mood and the atmosphere of the novel rather than adding anything of importance to the plot.

On the welfare costs of business cycles in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research, that the welfare cost of business cycles are relatively small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a reasonable reduced form for consumption, we computed these welfare costs for the pre- and post-WWII era, using three alternative trend-cycle decomposition methods. The post-WWII period is very era this basic result is dramatically altered. For the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition, and reasonable preference parameter and discount values, we get a compensation of about 5% of consumption, which is by all means a sizable welfare cost (about US$ 1,000.00 a year).

An essay on private equity: the history and fundamentals of fundraising in Brazil

O impacto positivo dos investimentos de Private Equity e Venture Capital (PE/VC) na economia e no mercado de capitais está amplamente documentado pela literatura acadêmica internacional. Nos últimos 40 anos, diversos autores têm estudado a influência desta classe de ativos na criação, no desenvolvimento e na transformação de milhares de empresas ao redor do mundo, especialmente nos Estados Unidos. Entretanto, os estudos sobre os determinantes da captação de recursos de PE/VC têm se desenvolvido apenas mais recentemente, e seus resultados estão longe de ser uma unanimidade. No Brasil, a pesquisa sobre a indústria de PE/VC ainda é escassa. Embora a indústria local venha crescendo rapidamente desde 2006, tendo alcançado US$36,1 bilhões em capital comprometido em 2009, ainda não há estudos sobre as variáveis que influenciam na alocação de capital pelos investidores nesta modalidade de investimento no Brazil. Entender esta dinâmica é importante para o equilíbrio e a eficiência de mercado. Baseado no trabalho de Gompers e Lerner (1998) sobre os determinantes da indústria de PE/VC nos Estados Unidos, este trabalho contribui com a literatura de PE/VC ao: (i) revisitar o começo desta indústria no Brasil; e (ii) identificar quais as variáveis influenciam no desenvolvimento da indústria de PE/VC local. Os resultados deste estudo contribuem para o desenvolvimento acadêmico da indústria de PE/VC no Brasil. Além disso, as discussões aqui apresentadas poderão impactar outras áreas de estudo que são permeadas pelo tema, tais como Gestão de Investimentos, Governança Corporativa, Empreendedorismo e Estratégia. Profissionais de mercado também deverão se interessar no trabalho. As discussões sobre a história e os fundamentos da indústria fornecem aos investidores, empreendedores, gestores de investimentos e formuladores de políticas públicas, entre outros, um melhor entendimento sobre como o ecossistema de PE/VC funciona no Brasil.

Dentistry in Brazil: Its History and Current Trends

The objectives of this article are to provide a short history of dentistry and dental education in Brazil and to analyze the nature of its development to date. The databases consulted are those provided by the Brazilian Federal Council of Dentistry, Brazilian Ministry of Health, Brazilian Ministry of Education, National Institute of Studies and Educational Research Anisio Teixeira, and Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Formal dental education in Brazil started in the late nineteenth century with the creation of courses annexed to existing schools of medicine in Rio de Janeiro and Bahia. Today, there are 191 institutions of higher education nationwide granting degrees in dentistry (137 private [71.7 percent] and fifty-four public [28.3 percent]), with a total of 17,157 student positions offered annually. These schools graduate around 10,000 professionals per year-one of the highest rates in the world. Both the distribution of schools of dentistry and of dentists varies among the regions of the country, with the greatest concentrations in major metropolitan centers with high population density, resulting in limited coverage in the more deprived regions. A review of epidemiological data for oral health and distribution of dentists in Brazil indicates that there is a lack of systematic planning for the allocation of the dental workforce and a lack of consideration of regional needs in the development of dental training programs in Brazil today.

Epigramas de Marcial traduzidos por José Feliciano de Castilho: edição, notas e comentários

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A América Latina, de Manoel Bomfim, e Ariel, de José Enrique Rodó: ensaios de interpretação latino-americana

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A ironia nas Terceiras estórias: Tutaméia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Consciência e crítica da linguagem: Graciliano Ramos / Language awareness and criticism: Graciliano Ramos

Uma leitura atenta da ficção de Graciliano Ramos pode revelar uma forma aguda de refletir o mundo através de uma reflexão anterior sobre a própria linguagem da literatura e da sociedade. É uma leitura desse teor que se pretende mostrar, apoiada na conhecida teoria das funções da linguagem de Jakobson. Num jogo constante entre as funções fática e metalingüística, Graciliano Ramos demonstra visível consciência dos problemas de linguagem, cujo tratamento moderno aponta uma postura bastante crítica (via linguagem) perante o homem e a vida. An attentive of Graciliano Ramos’ fiction reveals a deep form of reflection on the world thorough a previous reflection on the very language of literature and society. Such a reading is here attempted based on Jakobson’s well known theory of language functions. In a constante play between the fatic and the metalinguistic function, Graciliano Ramos demonstrates a clear awareness of the problems of language, whose modern treatment points at a very critical poise (via language) before man and life.

Diversity, natural history, and geographic distribution of snakes in the Caatinga, Northeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)