Analysis of World Economic Variables Using Multidimensional Scaling

Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene.

A Multidimensional scaling perspective of Rostow's forecasts with the Track-record (1960s-2011) of "pioneers" and "latecomers"

Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Dynamical Systems -Theory and Applications

Massa corporal e aptidão física dos militares da Marinha Portuguesa : distribuição e tendências segundo os indicadores, prevalência e possíveis consequências do excesso de peso

RESUMO - O excesso de peso (EP) é um dos mais graves problemas de Saúde Pública deste século XXI, dada a sua elevada e crescente prevalência a nível mundial, afectando um elevado número de adultos, adolescentes e crianças, com graves consequências na saúde, sendo responsável pelo aumento das doenças crónicas e pela diminuição da duração e qualidade de vida dos indivíduos. Em Portugal, a prevalência do EP afecta mais de metade da população adulta portuguesa. No meio militar, este problema é reflexo da prevalência do EP na população em geral e, para além das consequências económicas e na saúde, prejudica a aparência militar e pode comprometer a aptidão física. Pretende-se com realizar um estudo exploratório, com vista a realizar uma primeira abordagem do conhecimento do perfil e tendências do índice de massa corporal (IMC), bem como da prevalência do EP e, ainda, de possíveis associações entre o EP e a aptidão física, numa amostra representativa de militares no activo da Marinha Portuguesa (MP). Com os resultados deste estudo pretende-se alertar, pela primeira vez, para a problemática do EP no meio militar, contribuindo também para ampliar o conhecimento da prevalência do EP em subgrupos da população nacional. Os resultados obtidos poderão servir de base para a constituição de um sistema de vigilância, para um correcto entendimento da evolução da tendência do IMC e da prevalência de EP dos militares da MP, bem como disponibilizar uma base de partida para outros estudos, focando os determinantes do EP associados a estilos de vida. ------------ABSTRACT - Overweight and obesity severe Public Health problems of the XXI Century due to its high and increasing worldwide prevalence, including Portugal, and it afects a high number of adults, adolescents and children, with serious health consequences, being responsible for the increase of chronic diseases and for lower life quality and lower life expectancy. In Portugal, overweight prevalence affects more than half of adult’s population. Among the Navy, overweight problem reflects population’s tendency, and, besides it’s economic and health consequences, can affect military image and can jeopardize physical fitness with consequences in the Navy response and performance. This study carries out an exploratory first approach of body’s mass index profile and trends, as well the prevalence of overweight in a representative sample of on duty Portuguese Navy staff, and the potential links between overweight and physical fitness among this population. It outcome seeks, for the first time, to draw attention to the overweight problematic among Navy staff, being also a way to enhance the knowledge of overweight prevalence among population sub-groups. It outcome can be a starting point for the set up of monitoring systems, for a correct understanding body’s mass index evolution trends and the prevalence Navy staff overweight, being also a foundation for other studies, foc

Clinical Outcome and Morphologic Analysis after Endovascular Aneurysm Repair Using the Excluder Endograft

OBJECTIVE: Long-term follow-up after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is very scarce, and doubt remains regarding the durability of these procedures. We designed a retrospective cohort study to assess long-term clinical outcome and morphologic changes in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) treated by EVAR using the Excluder endoprosthesis (W. L. Gore and Associates, Flagstaff, Ariz). METHODS: From 2000 to 2007, 179 patients underwent EVAR in a tertiary institution. Clinical data were retrieved from a prospective database. All patients treated with the Excluder endoprosthesis were included. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) scans were retrospectively analyzed preoperatively, at 30 days, and at the last follow-up using dedicated tridimensional reconstruction software. For patients with complications, all remaining CTAs were also analyzed. The primary end point was clinical success. Secondary end points were freedom from reintervention, sac growth, types I and III endoleak, migration, conversion to open repair, and AAA-related death or rupture. Neck dilatation, renal function, and overall survival were also analyzed. RESULTS: Included were 144 patients (88.2% men; mean age, 71.6 years). Aneurysms were ruptured in 4.9%. American Society of Anesthesiologists classification was III/IV in 61.8%. No patients were lost during a median follow-up of 5.0 years (interquartile range, 3.1-6.4; maximum, 11.2 years). Two patients died of medical complications ≤ 30 days after EVAR. The estimated primary clinical success rates at 5 and 10 years were 63.5% and 41.1%, and secondary clinical success rates were 78.3% and 58.3%, respectively. Sac growth was observed in 37 of 142 patients (26.1%). Cox regression showed type I endoleak during follow-up (hazard ratio, 3.74; P = .008), original design model (hazard ratio, 3.85; P = .001), and preoperative neck diameter (1.27 per mm increase, P = .006) were determinants of sac growth. Secondary interventions were required in 32 patients (22.5%). The estimated 10-year rate of AAA-related death or rupture was 2.1%. Overall life expectancy after AAA repair was 6.8 years. CONCLUSIONS: EVAR using the Excluder endoprosthesis provides a safe and lasting treatment for AAA, despite the need for maintained surveillance and secondary interventions. At up to 11 years, the risk of AAA-related death or postimplantation rupture is remarkably low. The incidences of postimplantation sac growth and secondary intervention were greatly reduced after the introduction of the low-permeability design in 2004.

Protein adducts from the anti-HIV drug abacavir – possible biomarkers of drug toxicity

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina

ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SMOKING, CRACK COCAINE ABUSE AND THE DISCONTINUATION OF COMBINATION ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY IN RECIFE, PERNAMBUCO, BRAZIL

Despite the effectiveness of combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), nonadherence to medication has become a major threat to its effectiveness. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of self-reported irregular use of antiretroviral therapy and the factors associated with such an irregularity in PLWHA. A cross-sectional study of PLWHA who attended two referral centers in the city of Recife, in Northeastern Brazil, between June 2007 and October 2009 was carried out. The study analyzed socioeconomic factors, social service support and personal habits associated with nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy, adjusted by multivariable logistic regression analysis. The prevalence of PLWHA who reported irregular use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) was 25.7%. In the final multivariate model, the irregular use of cART was associated with the following variables: being aged less than 40 years (OR = 1.66, 95%-CI: 1.29-2.13), current smokers (OR = 1.76, 95%-CI: 1.31-2.37) or former smokers (OR = 1.43, 95%-CI: 1.05-1.95), and crack cocaine users (OR = 2.79, 95%-CI: 1.24-6.32). Special measures should be directed towards each of the following groups: individuals aged less than 40 years, smokers, former smokers and crack cocaine users. Measures for giving up smoking and crack cocaine should be incorporated into HIV-control programs in order to promote greater adherence to antiretroviral drugs and thus improve the quality of life and prolong life expectancy.

MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY DUE TO AIDS: A STUDY OF BURDEN OF DISEASE AT A MUNICIPAL LEVEL

Introduction: The purpose of measuring the burden of disease involves aggregating morbidity and mortality components into a single indicator, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), to measure how much and how people live and suffer the impact of a disease. Objective: To estimate the global burden of disease due to AIDS in a municipality of southern Brazil. Methods: An ecological study was conducted in 2009 to examine the incidence and AIDS-related deaths among the population residing in the city of Tubarao, Santa Catarina State, Brazil. Data from the Mortality Information System in the National Health System was used to calculate the years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality. The calculation was based on the difference between a standardized life expectancy and age at death, with a discount rate of 3% per year. Data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases were used to calculate the years lived with disability (YLD). The DALY was estimated by the sum of YLL and YLD. Indicator rates were estimated per 100,000 inhabitants, distributed by age and gender. Results: A total of 131 records were examined, and a 572.5 DALYs were estimated, which generated a rate of 593.1 DALYs/100,000 inhabitants. The rate among men amounted to 780.7 DALYs/100,000, whereas among women the rate was 417.1 DALYs/100,000. The most affected age groups were 30-44 years for men and 60-69 years for women. Conclusion: The burden of disease due to AIDS in the city of Tubarao was relatively high when considering the global trend. The mortality component accounted for more than 90% of the burden of disease.

Atrial Septal Defects

Atrial septal defects are the third most common type of congenital heart disease. Included in this group of malformations are several types of atrial communications that allow shunting of blood between the systemic and the pulmonary circulations. Most children with isolated atrial septal defects are free of symptoms, but the rates of exercise intolerance, atrial tachyarrhythmias, right ventricular dysfunction, and pulmonary hypertension increase with advancing age and life expectancy is reduced in adults with untreated defects. The risk of development of pulmonary vascular disease, a potentially lethal complication, is higher in female patients and in older adults with untreated defects. Surgical closure is safe and effective and when done before age 25 years is associated with normal life expectancy. Transcatheter closure offers a less invasive alternative for patients with a secundum defect who fulfil anatomical and size criteria. In this Seminar we review the causes, anatomy, pathophysiology, treatment, and outcomes of atrial septal defects in children and adult patients in whom this defect is the primary cardiac anomaly.

Coronary Revascularization Induces a Shift From Cardiac Toward Noncardiac Mortality Without Improving Survival in Vascular Surgery Patient

OBJECTIVE: Although evidence has shown that ischemic heart disease (IHD) in vascular surgery patients has a negative impact on the prognosis after surgery, it is unclear whether directed treatment of IHD may influence cause-specific and overall mortality. The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic implication of coronary revascularization (CR) on overall and cause-specific mortality in vascular surgery patients. METHODS: Patients undergoing surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm, carotid artery stenosis, or peripheral artery disease in a university hospital in The Netherlands between January 2003 and December 2011 were retrospectively included. Survival estimates were obtained by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1104 patients were included. Adjusted survival analyses showed that IHD significantly increased the risk of overall mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.87) and cardiovascular death (HR, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.76). Compared with those without CR, patients previously undergoing CR had similar overall mortality (HR, 1.38 vs 1.62; P = .274) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.83 vs 2.02; P = .656). Nonrevascularized IHD patients were more likely to die of IHD (6.9% vs 35.7%), whereas revascularized IHD patients more frequently died of cardiovascular causes unrelated to IHD (39.1% vs 64.3%; P = .018). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the significance of IHD for postoperative survival of vascular surgery patients. CR was associated with lower IHD-related death rates. However, it failed to provide an overall survival benefit because of an increased rate of cardiovascular mortality unrelated to IHD. Intensification of secondary prevention regimens may be required to prevent this shift toward non-IHD-related death and thereby improve life expectancy.

Three essays in risky behaviors

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Qualidade e satisfação do sistema de seguimento à distância de cardioversores-desfibrilhadores implantáveis

RESUMO - Com o aumento da esperança de vida e das doenças crónicas, cada vez se tem implantado mais cardioversores-desfibrilhadores (CDI) para prevenção de morte súbita. O aumento exponencial no número de implantes aumenta o número de seguimentos dos dispositivos, sobrecarregando os profissionais de saúde e comprometendo a qualidade dos serviços prestados. Segundo as recomendações internacionais, um CDI deverá ser vigiado a cada 3 meses, o que perfaz 4 consultas por ano/doente no mínimo, se não existirem episódios de “choques” ou “descompensações” clínicas, e mensalmente quando é atingido o indicador de substituição electiva do gerador. A evolução da tecnologia, de algoritmos, visualização de episódios e terapias requer recursos técnicos e humanos diferenciados e um gasto de tempo considerável no seguimento. Em países como os Estados Unidos da América, em que os doentes têm de percorrer distâncias muito grandes para aceder aos cuidados de saúde, tornou-se preemente a necessidade de um sistema de vigilância alternativo. Nesse sentido, e usando o conceito da telemedicina, foi criado o seguimento/monitorização à distância de dispositivos cardíacos. Este reduz os custos em consultas, deslocações e recursos humanos, uma vez que contempla apenas uma consulta presencial por ano. Por outro lado, aumenta a segurança do doente com a monitorização periódica e a criação de alarmes, permitindo uma assistência de qualidade e intervenção adequada imediata. Aproveitando as vantagens que este tipo de sistema de transmissão remota oferece, procedeu-se no meu serviço, à distribuição inicial de 62 comunicadores a doentes portadores de CDI´s ou com Ressincronizadores Cardíacos (TRC´s1). Apesar de ser considerada uma melhoria na qualidade dos serviços prestados, é também uma mudança importante na metodologia da consulta feita até aqui. Segundo vários autores, a avaliação da qualidade dos cuidados em saúde está intrinsecamente ligada ao grau de satisfação dos doentes com esses serviços, ou seja, à relação entre as suas expectativas e os resultados percebidos por eles, sendo considerado um importante indicador de qualidade dos serviços. Com este trabalho, pretende-se avaliar a percepção dos doentes face ao novo seguimento em termos de aceitação, satisfação, validade, segurança e confiança no novo sistema. Se este mantém os mesmos padrões de qualidade que o seguimento presencial. Trata-se de um estudo transversal com uma componente retrospectiva de avaliação da nova metodologia de consulta à distância. Para tal, foi elaborado um questionário, que foi aplicado a 40 doentes (17,5% do género feminino e 82,5% do género masculino; média de idades de 65 anos) que constituíram a amostra do estudo. Verificou-se uma média de 5 anos de tempo de implante do CDI. Dos dados obtidos, é de realçar que 70% dos inquiridos estão satisfeitos e 30% estão muito satisfeitos com esta nova metodologia de consulta e cerca 67,4% prefere a consulta à distância. Quando solicitados para comparar a qualidade do serviço prestado entre as duas consultas, 65% respondeu igual e 27,5% melhor. Todos os inquiridos responderam ter confiança e segurança com o sistema de consulta à distância. Cerca de 87,5% dos inquiridos vê-se mesmo a continuar com este tipo de consulta. Os resultados obtidos são bastante satisfatórios no que diz respeito à transição do modo como a consulta de CDI´s é feita. Reflectem também que a tecnologia não é necessariamente uma barreira no acesso aos profissionais de saúde, desde que suportada por algum contacto directo (telefone e através de uma consulta presencial por ano). 1 TRC – Terapia de Ressincronização Cardíaca

Relação entre despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações : análise da base de dados da OCDE 2012

RESUMO - Introdução: A despesa em saúde aumentou consideravelmente nas últimas décadas na maioria dos países industrializados. Por outro lado, os indicadores de saúde melhoraram. A evidência empírica sobre a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações tem sido inconclusiva. Este estudo aborda a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações através de dados agregados para 34 países para o período 1980-2010. Metodologia: Utilizou-se o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson para avaliar a correlação entre as variáveis explicativas e os indicadores de saúde. Procedeuse ainda à realização de uma regressão multivariada com dados em painel para cada indicador de saúde utilizado como variável dependente: esperança de vida à nascença e aos 65 anos para mulheres e homens, anos de vida potencialmente perdidos para mulheres e homens e mortalidade infantil. A principal variável explicativa utilizada foi a despesa em saúde, mas consideraram-se também vários fatores de confundimento, nomeadamente a riqueza, fatores estilo de vida, e oferta de cuidados. Resultados: A despesa per capita tem impacto nos indicadores de saúde mas ao adicionarmos a variável PIB per capita deixa de ser estatisticamente significativa. Outros fatores têm um impacto significativo para quase todos os indicadores de saúde utilizados: consumo de álcool e tabaco, gordura, o número de médicos e a imunização, confirmando vários resultados da literatura. Conclusão: Os resultados vão ao encontro de alguns estudos que afirmam o impacto marginal das despesas em saúde e do progresso da medicina nos resultados em saúde desde os anos 80 nos países industrializados.

Determinants of export diversification and sophistication in sub-saharan Africa

This paper studies the political and economic factors that determine successful export diversification (ED) and export sophistication (ES) strategies in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries and also the way in which successful ED and sophistication strategies contribute to explain the improving in some of the millennium development goals (MDG). We run separate regressions for the determinants of ES and ED, using disaggregated data of the 48 SSA countries, from 1960 to 2005. The results suggest that better governance is an important determinant for the success of diversification and sophistication strategies in SSA. In particular the level of corruption, transparency and accountability are important factors in limiting or promoting the scope of diversification and the level of sophistication of the exports. The results also suggest that increases in human capital in SSA countries promote both ED and ES, showing that the level of education of the workforce is positively related with ES and ED, with higher levels of education (tertiary) playing a more important role in explaining ES, while lower levels of education (primary) being more important as determinants of ED. In the second part we explore the links between ED and ES and growth presenting evidence that ED and ES are linked to growth stability in SSA. This study also suggests that the Sub-Saharan countries that were more successful in achieving ED and ES tend to be more successful in improving the living conditions of their population. Using different variables of Infant Mortality (one of the MDG) and life expectancy as dependent variables, we present evidence that suggests that in SSA higher ED and ES are associated with lower infant mortality and higher life expectancy. We show that this result is robust, presenting positive and significant results even when a large number of different control variables are introduced, or when fixed effects and instrumental variables are considered. The evidence suggests that ED and ES are part of the solution for a successful development of SSA.

Monitoring antibiotics in the environment. Study of Quinoxaline derivatives bioactivity

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Química Sustentável

Health systems efficiency after the crisis in the OECD

This work evaluates the efficiency position of the health system of each OECD country. It identifies whether, or not, health systems changed in terms of quality and performance after the financial crisis. The health systems performance was calculated by fixed-effects estimator and by stochastic frontier analysis. The results suggest that many of those countries that the crisis affected the most are more efficient than the OECD average. In addition, some of those countries even managed to reach the top decile in the efficiency ranking. Finally, we analyze the stochastic frontier efficiency scores together with other health indicators to evaluate the health systems’ overall adjustments derived from the crisis.