Emotions and voting in EU referendums

There is an emerging scholarship on the emotional bases of political opinion and behaviour and, in particular, the contrasting implications of two distinct negative emotions - anger and anxiety. I apply the insights in this literature to the previously unresearched realm of the emotional bases of voting in EU referendums. I hypothesise that anxious voters rely on substantive EU issues and angry voters rely on second-order factors relating to domestic politics (partisanship and satisfaction with government). Focusing on the case of Irish voting in the Fiscal Compact referendum, and using data from a representative sample of voters, I find support for the hypotheses and discuss the implications of the findings for our understanding of the emotional conditionality of EU referendum voting. 

Inequality, state ownership and the European Union: How economic context and economic ideology shape support for the European Union

This article investigates the extent to which economic ideology affects people's support for European Union integration and how this is conditioned by economic context. We argue that people on the economic left who live in a country with conditions of high income inequality and little state ownership will support European integration, because more integration would move public policy in a left-wing direction. By contrast, people on the left who live in a country with conditions of low income inequality and widespread public ownership are likely to be eurosceptic, as further integration would result in a more right-wing public policy. We empirically confirm our hypotheses and discuss the implications for European Union democracy.

Molecular pedigree reconstruction and estimation of evolutionary parameters in a wild Atlantic salmon river system with incomplete sampling: a power analysis

Background: Pedigree reconstruction using genetic analysis provides a useful means to estimate fundamental population biology parameters relating to population demography, trait heritability and individual fitness when combined with other sources of data. However, there remain limitations to pedigree reconstruction in wild populations, particularly in systems where parent-offspring relationships cannot be directly observed, there is incomplete sampling of individuals, or molecular parentage inference relies on low quality DNA from archived material. While much can still be inferred from incomplete or sparse pedigrees, it is crucial to evaluate the quality and power of available genetic information a priori to testing specific biological hypotheses. Here, we used microsatellite markers to reconstruct a multi-generation pedigree of wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) using archived scale samples collected with a total trapping system within a river over a 10 year period. Using a simulation-based approach, we determined the optimal microsatellite marker number for accurate parentage assignment, and evaluated the power of the resulting partial pedigree to investigate important evolutionary and quantitative genetic characteristics of salmon in the system.

Results: We show that at least 20 microsatellites (ave. 12 alleles/locus) are required to maximise parentage assignment and to improve the power to estimate reproductive success and heritability in this study system. We also show that 1.5 fold differences can be detected between groups simulated to have differing reproductive success, and that it is possible to detect moderate heritability values for continuous traits (h(2) similar to 0.40) with more than 80% power when using 28 moderately to highly polymorphic markers.

Conclusion: The methodologies and work flow described provide a robust approach for evaluating archived samples for pedigree-based research, even where only a proportion of the total population is sampled. The results demonstrate the feasibility of pedigree-based studies to address challenging ecological and evolutionary questions in free-living populations, where genealogies can be traced only using molecular tools, and that significant increases in pedigree assignment power can be achieved by using higher numbers of markers.

Population genetic analyses reveal distinct geographical blooms of the jellyfish Rhizostoma octopus (Scyhpozoa)

Understanding the spatial integrity and connectivity of jellyfish blooms is important for ecologists and coastal stakeholders alike. Previous studies have shown that the distribution of jellyfish blooms can display a marked consistency in space and time, suggesting that such patterns cannot be attributed to passive processes alone. In the present study, we used a combination of microsatellite markers and mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I sequences to investigate genetic structuring of the scyphozoan jellyfish Rhizostoma octopus in the Irish and Celtic Seas. The mitochondrial data indicated far higher levels of population differentiation than the microsatellites: ΦST[MT] = 0.300 vs. ΦST[NUC] = 0.013. Simulation studies indicated that the low levels of nuclear differentiation were not the result of limited power because of low levels of polymorphism. These findings, supported by palaeodistribution modelling and mismatch distribution analysis, are consistent with expansion of R. octopus from a single, limited refugium after the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by subsequent isolation, and that the discrepancy between the mitochondrial and nuclear markers is a result of the nuclear loci taking longer to reach mutation–drift equilibrium following the expansion as a result of their four-fold larger effective population size. The populations studied are probably not well connected via gene flow, and thus genetically as well as geographically distinct, although our findings also highlight the need to use a combination of organellar and nuclear markers to enable a more complete understanding of population demography and structure, particularly for species with large effective population sizes.

A survey of location inference techniques on Twitter

The increasing popularity of the social networking service, Twitter, has made it more involved in day-to-day communications, strengthening social relationships and information dissemination. Conversations on Twitter are now being explored as indicators within early warning systems to alert of imminent natural disasters such earthquakes and aid prompt emergency responses to crime. Producers are privileged to have limitless access to market perception from consumer comments on social media and microblogs. Targeted advertising can be made more effective based on user profile information such as demography, interests and location. While these applications have proven beneficial, the ability to effectively infer the location of Twitter users has even more immense value. However, accurately identifying where a message originated from or author’s location remains a challenge thus essentially driving research in that regard. In this paper, we survey a range of techniques applied to infer the location of Twitter users from inception to state-of-the-art. We find significant improvements over time in the granularity levels and better accuracy with results driven by refinements to algorithms and inclusion of more spatial features.

High-resolution genetic analysis reveals extensive gene flow within the jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca (Scyphozoa) in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea

Despite the importance of gelatinous zooplankton as components of marine ecosystems, both ecologically and socio-economically, relatively little is known about population persistence or connectivity in jellyfish. In the present study, we employed a combination of nuclear microsatellite markers and sequence data from the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) gene to determine levels and patterns of population genetic structuring in the holoplanktonic jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca across the northeast Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our results indicate a high degree of connectivity in P. noctiluca, with little evidence of geographical structuring of genetic variation. A small but significant differentiation of Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean stocks was detected based on the microsatellite data, but no evidence of differentiation was observed with the mtDNA, probably due to the higher power of the microsatellites to detect low levels of genetic structuring. Two clearly distinct groups of genotypes were observed within the mtDNA COI, which probably diverged in the early Pleistocene, but with no evidence of geographical structuring. Palaeodistribution modelling of P. noctiluca at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ca. 21 KYA) indicated large areas of suitable habitat south of the species’ current-day distribution, with little reduction in area. The congruent evidence for minimal genetic differentiation from the nuclear microsatellites and the mtDNA, coupled with the results of the palaeodistribution modelling, supports the idea of long-term population stability and connectivity, thus providing key insights into the population dynamics and demography of this important species

Spatial variation in adult sex ratio across multiple scales in the invasive golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata

Adult sex ratio (ASR) has critical effects on behavior and life history and has implications for population demography, including the invasiveness of introduced species. ASR exhibits immense variation in nature, yet the scale dependence of this variation is rarely analyzed. In this study, using the generalized multilevel models, we investigated the variation in ASR across multiple nested spatial scales and analyzed the underlying causes for an invasive species, the golden apple snail Pomacea canaliculata. We partitioned the variance in ASR to describe the variations at different scales and then included the explanatory variables at the individual and group levels to analyze the potential causes driving the variation in ASR. We firstly determined there is a significant female-biased ASR for this species when accounting for the spatial and temporal autocorrelations of sampling. We found that, counter to nearly equal distributed variation at plot, habitat and region levels, ASR showed little variation at the town level. Temperature and precipitation at the region level were significantly positively associated with ASR, whereas the individual weight, the density characteristic, and sampling time were not significant factors influencing ASR. Our study suggests that offspring sex ratio of this species may shape the general pattern of ASR in the population level while the environmental variables at the region level translate the unbiased offspring sex ratio to the female-biased ASR. Future research should consider the implications of climate warming on the female-biased ASR of this invasive species and thus on invasion pattern.

Identification of diagnostic biomarkers for infection in premature neonates

Infection is a leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Premature neonates are particularly susceptible to infection because of physiologic immaturity, comorbidity, and extraneous medical interventions. Additionally premature infants are at higher risk of progression to sepsis or severe sepsis, adverse outcomes, and antimicrobial toxicity. Currently initial diagnosis is based upon clinical suspicion accompanied by nonspecific clinical signs and is confirmed upon positive microbiologic culture results several days after institution of empiric therapy. There exists a significant need for rapid, objective, in vitro tests for diagnosis of infection in neonates who are experiencing clinical instability. We used immunoassays multiplexed on microarrays to identify differentially expressed serum proteins in clinically infected and non-infected neonates. Immunoassay arrays were effective for measurement of more than 100 cytokines in small volumes of serum available from neonates. Our analyses revealed significant alterations in levels of eight serum proteins in infected neonates that are associated with inflammation, coagulation, and fibrinolysis. Specifically P- and E-selectins, interleukin 2 soluble receptor alpha, interleukin 18, neutrophil elastase, urokinase plasminogen activator and its cognate receptor, and C-reactive protein were observed at statistically significant increased levels. Multivariate classifiers based on combinations of serum analytes exhibited better diagnostic specificity and sensitivity than single analytes. Multiplexed immunoassays of serum cytokines may have clinical utility as an adjunct for rapid diagnosis of infection and differentiation of etiologic agent in neonates with clinical decompensation.

Bereavement outcomes: a quantitative survey identifying risk factors in family carers bereaved through cancer.

Background: Enabling patients to die in their preferred place is important but achieving preferred place of death may increase the informal carer’s risk into bereavement. Aim: to determine risk factors of family carers bereaved through cancer in Northern Ireland. Design: These results form part of a larger QUALYCARE-NI study which used postal questionnaires to capture quantitative data on carer’s bereavement scores using the Texas Revised Inventory of Grief. Setting/participants: Participants were individuals who: registered the death of a person between 1st December 2011 and 31st May 2012; where cancer (defined by ICD10 codes C00-D48) was the primary cause; where the deceased was over 18 years of age and death occurred at home, hospice, nursing home or hospital in Northern Ireland. Participants were approached in confidence by the Demography and Methodology Branch of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. Those wishing to decline participation were invited to return the reply slip. Non-responders received a second questionnaire six weeks after initial invitation. Results indicated that risk factors positively influencing bereavement outcomes included patients having no preference for place of death and carers remaining in employment pre or post bereavement. In contrast, patients dying in hospital, carers stopping work, being of lower socio-economic status and close kinship to the deceased negatively impacted on bereavement scores. Family carers should be adequately supported to continue in employment; priority should be given to assessing the financial needs of families from lower socio-economic areas; and bereavement support should focus on close relatives of the deceased.

Quem cuida do cuidador?: o custo invisível do acto de cuidar

O envelhecimento da população será um dos fenómenos mais importantes das próximas décadas, afectando as estruturas de apoio aos idosos assim como às suas famílias. É um fenómeno importante porque pessoas de diferentes idades, com diferentes capacidades, interesses e necessidades apresentam diferentes problemas de saúde e necessitam diferentes soluções e abordagens. Assim um cenário denominado de demografia da idade, ou gray power, emergiu no último século. Da literatura emerge a importância da família na resposta às necessidades e dependências de um ente querido idoso. Porém os cuidadores informais envolvem-se totalmente no cuidado sem possuírem o adestramento técnico, o que potencia situações de stress para o cuidador e mesmo para o idoso receptor de cuidados. Na recolha da amostra, foi utilizada a entrevista e o exame físico na aplicação de inquérito. (81 idosos e 86 cuidadores). Foi utilizada a análise de conteúdo nas respostas abertas e análise quantitativa de carácter estatístico, descritivo e inferencial, para o tratamento dos dados. Os resultados sugerem que: a) ambas as amostras manifestam problemas de saúde, porém os idosos apresentam situações mais graves; b) os familiares dos idosos, pelo acto de cuidar possuem elevados padrões de stress; c) os cuidadores informais necessitam de apoio técnico para desempenharem as suas funções. Como conclusão refere-se que o stress vivido pelo cuidador interfere na sua saúde e qualidade de vida, necessitando em consequência de apoio emocional e institucional; para muitos idosos dependentes existe a real necessidade dos Cuidados Continuados de proximidade e de Cuidados Paliativos.

Convergência regional na União Europeia: evidência para o período 1990-2001

Tendo em conta que um dos principais objectivos da União Europeia é a aproximação dos níveis de vida dos cidadãos europeus, este trabalho testa a hipótese de convergência entre as regiões NUTS II da União Europeia no período de 1990 a 2001, através da análise da dispersão e estimação de regressões “tipo Barro” que relacionam o crescimento com o nível de rendimento inicial e outras variáveis. Identifica os factores que explicam as diferenças regionais no produto per capita, produtividade e produto por pessoa com idade para trabalhar, mostrando as diferenças de resultados consoante a variável utilizada. Os resultados mostram a existência de convergência do produto per capita e do produto por trabalhador, mas não do produto por pessoa com idade para trabalhar, uma vez que a evolução da demografia tem-se mostrado favorável à redução das disparidades, mas o emprego não. Procura também avaliar se a eligibilidade das regiões como “objectivo 1”, no âmbito da política comunitária, permitiu um maior crescimento das mesmas. Encontra ainda evidência de convergência condicional entre as regiões da UE, com o dinamismo das regiões vizinhas a terem um impacto positivo na velocidade de convergência regional, mostrando-nos a importância do investimento em acessibilidades que tornem as regiões periféricas cada vez mais próximas dos grandes centros económicos.

O ensino e a aprendizagem militares em Portugal e no Império, de D. João III a D. Sebastião : a arte portuguesa da guerra

Tese de doutoramento, História (História dos Descobrimentos e da Expansão), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Letras, 2014

The Gendered Effects of Marriage on Health in Japan: Structure, Role Expectations, and Outcomes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Role of the wider Azores region as a nursery ground for North Atlantic blue shark (Prionace glauca)

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Ecologia Marinha)