Simulating a latent susceptible pool to examine the impact on cardiovascular mortality

The health effects of cold and hot temperatures are strongest in the frail and elderly. A large number of deaths in this "susceptible pool" after heat waves and cold snaps can cause mortality displacement, where an immediate increase in mortality is somewhat offset by a subsequent decrease in the following weeks. There may also be longer-term implications, as reductions in the pool caused by hot summers can reduce cold-related mortality in the following winter. A state-space model was used to simulate the numbers in the susceptible pool over time. We simulated the effects of harsh winters and heat waves, and varied the size of the susceptible pool. The larger the susceptible pool the smaller the mortality displacement. When 1% of the population were susceptible a harsh winter lead to an average of just 3 months of life lost per cold-related death, whereas a pool size of 10% meant that 24 months of life were lost per death. The impact of a cold spell on months of life lost was greater when the increased risk of death also applied to healthy people. The number of deaths caused by an August heat wave were reduced when there was a prior heat wave in June which reduced the susceptible pool. We were able to mimic some observed seasonal patterns in mortality using a simple state-space model. A better understanding of the size and dynamics of the susceptible pool will improve our understanding of the health effects of temperature.

Soil carbon sequestration and associated economic costs for farming systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plain : a meta-analysis

Soil organic carbon sequestration rates over 20 years based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) methodology were combined with local economic data to determine the potential for soil C sequestration in wheat-based production systems on the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The C sequestration potential of rice–wheat systems of India on conversion to no-tillage is estimated to be 44.1 Mt C over 20 years. Implementing no-tillage practices in maize–wheat and cotton–wheat production systems would yield an additional 6.6 Mt C. This offset is equivalent to 9.6% of India's annual greenhouse gas emissions (519 Mt C) from all sectors (excluding land use change and forestry), or less than one percent per annum. The economic analysis was summarized as carbon supply curves expressing the total additional C accumulated over 20 year for a price per tonne of carbon sequestered ranging from zero to USD 200. At a carbon price of USD 25 Mg C−1, 3 Mt C (7% of the soil C sequestration potential) could be sequestered over 20 years through the implementation of no-till cropping practices in rice–wheat systems of the Indian States of the IGP, increasing to 7.3 Mt C (17% of the soil C sequestration potential) at USD 50 Mg C−1. Maximum levels of sequestration could be attained with carbon prices approaching USD 200 Mg C−1 for the States of Bihar and Punjab. At this carbon price, a total of 34.7 Mt C (79% of the estimated C sequestration potential) could be sequestered over 20 years across the rice–wheat region of India, with Uttar Pradesh contributing 13.9 Mt C.

Offsetting greenhouse gas emissions through biological carbon sequestration in North Eastern Australia

The Kyoto Protocol recognises trees as a sink of carbon and a valid means to offset greenhouse gas emissions and meet internationally agreed emissions targets. This study details biological carbon sequestration rates for common plantation species Araucaria cunninghamii (hoop pine), Eucalyptus cloeziana, Eucalyptus argophloia, Pinus elliottii and Pinus caribaea var hondurensis and individual land areas required in north-eastern Australia to offset greenhouse gas emissions of 1000tCO 2e. The 3PG simulation model was used to predict above and below-ground estimates of biomass carbon for a range of soil productivity conditions for six representative locations in agricultural regions of north-eastern Australia. The total area required to offset 1000tCO 2e ranges from 1ha of E. cloeziana under high productivity conditions in coastal North Queensland to 45ha of hoop pine in low productivity conditions of inland Central Queensland. These areas must remain planted for a minimum of 30years to meet the offset of 1000tCO 2e.

Atomistic investigations of single-crystal silicon with pre-existing defects

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been employed to investigate the single-crystal Si properties with different pre-existing cavities under nanoindentation. Cavities with different radii and positions have been considered. It is found that pre-existing cavities in the Si substrate would obviously influence the mechanical properties of Si under nanoindentation. Furthermore, pre-existing cavities would absorb part of the strain energy during loading and then release during unloading. It would decrease plastic deformation to the substrate. Particularly, the larger of the cavity or the nearer of the cavity to the substrate’s top surface, the larger decrease of Young’s modulus and hardness is usually observed. Just as expected, the larger offset of the cavity in the lateral direction, the less influence is usually seen.

How important is length? : mechanical testing and measurement of a cemented, polished, tapered femoral implant

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) has a proven clinical record for providing pain relief and return of function to patients with disabling arthritis. There are many successful options for femoral implant design and fixation. Cemented, polished, tapered femoral implants have been shown to have excellent results in national joint registries and long-term clinical series. These implants are usually 150mm long at their lateral aspect. Due to their length, these implants cannot always be offered to patients due to variations in femoral anatomy. Polished, tapered implants as short as 95mm exist, however their small proximal geometry (neck offset and body size) limit their use to smaller stature patients. There is a group of patients in which a shorter implant with a maintained proximal body size would be advantageous. There are also potential benefits to a shorter implant in standard patient populations such as reduced bone removal due to reduced reaming, favourable loading of the proximal femur, and the ability to revise into good proximal bone stock if required. These factors potentially make a shorter implant an option for all patient populations. The role of implant length in determining the stability of a cemented, polished, tapered femoral implant is not well defined by the literature. Before changes in implant design can be made, a better understanding of the role of each region in determining performance is required. The aim of the thesis was to describe how implant length affects the stability of a cemented, polished, tapered femoral implant. This has been determined through an extensive body of laboratory testing. The major findings are that for a given proximal body size, a reduction in implant length has no effect on the torsional stability of a polished, tapered design, while a small reduction in axial stability should be expected. These findings are important because the literature suggests that torsional stability is the major determinant of long-term clinical performance of a THA system. Furthermore, a polished, tapered design is known to be forgiving of cement-implant interface micromotion due to the favourable wear characteristics. Together these findings suggest that a shorter polished, tapered implant may be well tolerated. The effect of a change in implant length on the geometric characteristics of polished, tapered design were also determined and applied to the mechanical testing. Importantly, interface area does play a role in stability of the system; however it is the distribution of the interface and not the magnitude of the area that defines stability. Taper angle (at least in the range of angles seen in this work) was shown not to be a determinant of axial or torsional stability. A range of implants were tested, comparing variations in length, neck offset and indication (primary versus cement-in-cement revision). At their manufactured length, the 125mm implants were similar to their longer 150mm counterparts suggesting that they may be similarly well tolerated in the clinical environment. However, the slimmer cement-in-cement revision implant was shown to have a poorer mechanical performance, suggesting their use in higher demand patients may be hazardous. An implant length of 125mm has been shown to be quite stable and the results suggest that a further reduction to 100mm may be tolerated. However, further work is required. A shorter implant with maintained proximal body size would be useful for the group of patients who are unable to access the current standard length implants due to variations in femoral anatomy. Extending the findings further, the similar function with potential benefits of a shorter implant make their application to all patients appealing.

Exeter short stems compared with standard length Exeter stems : experience from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

The standard Exeter stem has a length of 150mm with offsets 37.5mm to 56mm. Shorter stems of lengths 95mm, 115mm and 125mm with offsets 35.5mm or less are available for patients with smaller femurs. Concern has been raised regarding the behaviour of the smaller implants. This paper analysed data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry comparing survivorship of stems of offset 35.5mm or less with the standard stems of 37.5mm offset or greater. At seven years there was no significant difference in the Cumulative Percent Revision Rate in the short stems (3.4%, 95% CI 2.4-4.8%) compared with the standard length stems (3.5%, 95% CI 3.3-3.8%) despite its use in a greater proportion of potentially more difficult developmental dysplasia of the hip cases.

Assessment of daily light and ultraviolet exposure in young adults

Purpose: There are some limited reports, based on questionnaire data, which suggest that outdoor activity decreases the risk of myopia in children and may offset the myopia risk associated with prolonged near work. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between near work, indoor illumination, daily sunlight and ultraviolet (UV) exposure in emmetropic and myopic University students, given that University students perform significant amounts of near work and as a group have a high prevalence of myopia. Methods: Participants were 35 students, aged 17 to 25 years who were classified as being emmetropic (n=13), or having stable (n=12) or progressing myopia (n=10). During waking hours on three separate days participants wore a light sensor data logger (HOBO) and a polysulphone UV dosimeter; these devices measured daily illuminance and accumulative UV exposure respectively; participants also completed a daily activity log. Results: No significant between group differences were observed for average daily illuminance (p=0.732), number of hours per day spent in sunlight (p=0.266), outdoor shade (p=0.726), bright indoor/dim outdoor light (p=0.574) or dim room illumination (p=0.484). Daily UV exposure was significantly different across the groups (p=0.003); with stable myopes experiencing the greatest UV exposure (versus emmetropes p=0.002; versus progressing myopes p=0.004). Conclusions: The current literature suggests there is a link between myopia protection and spending time outdoors in children. Our data provides some evidence of this relationship in young adults and highlights the need for larger studies to further investigate this relationship longitudinally.

Human papillomavirus prevalence, viral load and pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix in women initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy in South Africa : a cross-sectional study

Background Cervical cancer and infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are both important public health problems in South Africa (SA). The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs), high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), HPV viral load and HPV genotypes in HIV positive women initiating anti-retroviral (ARV) therapy. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted at an anti-retroviral (ARV) treatment clinic in Cape Town, SA in 2007. Cervical specimens were taken for cytological analysis and HPV testing. The Digene Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) test was used to detect HR-HPV. Relative light units (RLU) were used as a measure of HPV viral load. HPV types were determined using the Roche Linear Array HPV Genotyping test. Crude associations with abnormal cytology were tested and multiple logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors for abnormal cytology. Results The median age of the 109 participants was 31 years, the median CD4 count was 125/mm3, 66.3% had an abnormal Pap smear, the HR-HPV prevalence was 78.9% (Digene), the median HPV viral load was 181.1 RLU (HC2 positive samples only) and 78.4% had multiple genotypes. Among women with abnormal smears the most prevalent HR-HPV types were HPV types 16, 58 and 51, all with a prevalence of 28.5%. On univariate analysis HR-HPV, multiple HPV types and HPV viral load were significantly associated with the presence of low and high-grade SILs (LSIL/HSIL). The multivariate logistic regression showed that HPV viral load was associated with an increased odds of LSIL/HSIL, odds ratio of 10.7 (95% CI 2.0 – 57.7) for those that were HC2 positive and had a viral load of ≤ 181.1 RLU (the median HPV viral load), and 33.8 (95% CI 6.4 – 178.9) for those that were HC2 positive with a HPV viral load > 181.1 RLU. Conclusion Women initiating ARVs have a high prevalence of abnormal Pap smears and HR-HPV. Our results underscore the need for locally relevant, rigorous screening protocols for the increasing numbers of women accessing ARV therapy so that the benefits of ARVs are not partially offset by an excess risk in cervical cancer.

BabelFuse data fusion unit with precision wireless clock synchronisation

A significant issue encountered when fusing data received from multiple sensors is the accuracy of the timestamp associated with each piece of data. This is particularly important in applications such as Simultaneous Localisation and Mapping (SLAM) where vehicle velocity forms an important part of the mapping algorithms; on fastmoving vehicles, even millisecond inconsistencies in data timestamping can produce errors which need to be compensated for. The timestamping problem is compounded in a robot swarm environment due to the use of non-deterministic readily-available hardware (such as 802.11-based wireless) and inaccurate clock synchronisation protocols (such as Network Time Protocol (NTP)). As a result, the synchronisation of the clocks between robots can be out by tens-to-hundreds of milliseconds making correlation of data difficult and preventing the possibility of the units performing synchronised actions such as triggering cameras or intricate swarm manoeuvres. In this thesis, a complete data fusion unit is designed, implemented and tested. The unit, named BabelFuse, is able to accept sensor data from a number of low-speed communication buses (such as RS232, RS485 and CAN Bus) and also timestamp events that occur on General Purpose Input/Output (GPIO) pins referencing a submillisecondaccurate wirelessly-distributed "global" clock signal. In addition to its timestamping capabilities, it can also be used to trigger an attached camera at a predefined start time and frame rate. This functionality enables the creation of a wirelessly-synchronised distributed image acquisition system over a large geographic area; a real world application for this functionality is the creation of a platform to facilitate wirelessly-distributed 3D stereoscopic vision. A ‘best-practice’ design methodology is adopted within the project to ensure the final system operates according to its requirements. Initially, requirements are generated from which a high-level architecture is distilled. This architecture is then converted into a hardware specification and low-level design, which is then manufactured. The manufactured hardware is then verified to ensure it operates as designed and firmware and Linux Operating System (OS) drivers are written to provide the features and connectivity required of the system. Finally, integration testing is performed to ensure the unit functions as per its requirements. The BabelFuse System comprises of a single Grand Master unit which is responsible for maintaining the absolute value of the "global" clock. Slave nodes then determine their local clock o.set from that of the Grand Master via synchronisation events which occur multiple times per-second. The mechanism used for synchronising the clocks between the boards wirelessly makes use of specific hardware and a firmware protocol based on elements of the IEEE-1588 Precision Time Protocol (PTP). With the key requirement of the system being submillisecond-accurate clock synchronisation (as a basis for timestamping and camera triggering), automated testing is carried out to monitor the o.sets between each Slave and the Grand Master over time. A common strobe pulse is also sent to each unit for timestamping; the correlation between the timestamps of the di.erent units is used to validate the clock o.set results. Analysis of the automated test results show that the BabelFuse units are almost threemagnitudes more accurate than their requirement; clocks of the Slave and Grand Master units do not di.er by more than three microseconds over a running time of six hours and the mean clock o.set of Slaves to the Grand Master is less-than one microsecond. The common strobe pulse used to verify the clock o.set data yields a positive result with a maximum variation between units of less-than two microseconds and a mean value of less-than one microsecond. The camera triggering functionality is verified by connecting the trigger pulse output of each board to a four-channel digital oscilloscope and setting each unit to output a 100Hz periodic pulse with a common start time. The resulting waveform shows a maximum variation between the rising-edges of the pulses of approximately 39¥ìs, well below its target of 1ms.

Risks of Carbon Fraud

Carbon credit markets are in the early stages of development and media headlines such as these illustrate emerging levels of concern and foreboding over the potential for fraudulent crime within these markets. Australian companies are continuing to venture into the largely unregulated voluntary carbon credit market to offset their emissions and / or give their customers the opportunity to be ‘carbon neutral’. Accordingly, the voluntary market has seen a proliferation of carbon brokers that offer tailored offset carbon products according to need and taste. With the instigation of the Australian compliance market and with pressure increasing for political responses to combat climate change, we would expect Australian companies to experience greater exposure to carbon products in both compliance and voluntary markets. This paper examines the risks of carbon fraud in these markets by reviewing cases of actual fraud and analysing and identifying contexts where risks of carbon fraud are most likely.

Innovative hybrid composite floor plate system

New materials technology has provided the potential for the development of an innovative Hybrid Composite Floor Plate System (HCFPS) with many desirable properties, such as light weight, easy to construct, economical, demountable, recyclable and reusable. Component materials of HCFPS include a central Polyurethane (PU) core, outer layers of Glass-fibre Reinforced Cement (GRC) and steel laminates at tensile regions. HCFPS is configured such that the positive inherent properties of individual component materials are combined to offset any weakness and achieve optimum performance. Research has been carried out using extensive Finite Element (FE) computer simulations supported by experimental testing. Both the strength and serviceability requirements have been established for this lightweight floor plate system. This paper presents some of the research towards the development of HCFPS along with a parametric study to select suitable span lengths.

Quantitative assessment of fault tolerant precision timing for electricity substations

Advanced substation applications, such as synchrophasors and IEC 61850-9-2 sampled value process buses, depend upon highly accurate synchronizing signals for correct operation. The IEEE 1588 Precision Timing Protocol (PTP) is the recommended means of providing precise timing for future substations. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of PTP reliability using Fault Tree Analysis. Two network topologies are proposed that use grandmaster clocks with dual network connections and take advantage of the Best Master Clock Algorithm (BMCA) from IEEE 1588. The cross-connected grandmaster topology doubles reliability, and the addition of a shared third grandmaster gives a nine-fold improvement over duplicated grandmasters. The performance of BMCA mediated handover of the grandmaster role during contingencies in the timing system was evaluated experimentally. The 1 µs performance requirement of sampled values and synchrophasors are met, even during network or GPS antenna outages. Slave clocks are shown to synchronize to the backup grandmaster in response to degraded performance or loss of the main grandmaster. Slave disturbances are less than 350 ns provided the grandmaster reference clocks are not offset from one another. A clear understanding of PTP reliability and the factors that affect availability will encourage the adoption of PTP for substation time synchronization.

Time-varying bispectral analysis of visually evoked multi-channel EEG

Theoretical foundations of higher order spectral analysis are revisited to examine the use of time-varying bicoherence on non-stationary signals using a classical short-time Fourier approach. A methodology is developed to apply this to evoked EEG responses where a stimulus-locked time reference is available. Short-time windowed ensembles of the response at the same offset from the reference are considered as ergodic cyclostationary processes within a non-stationary random process. Bicoherence can be estimated reliably with known levels at which it is significantly different from zero and can be tracked as a function of offset from the stimulus. When this methodology is applied to multi-channel EEG, it is possible to obtain information about phase synchronization at different regions of the brain as the neural response develops. The methodology is applied to analyze evoked EEG response to flash visual stimulii to the left and right eye separately. The EEG electrode array is segmented based on bicoherence evolution with time using the mean absolute difference as a measure of dissimilarity. Segment maps confirm the importance of the occipital region in visual processing and demonstrate a link between the frontal and occipital regions during the response. Maps are constructed using bicoherence at bifrequencies that include the alpha band frequency of 8Hz as well as 4 and 20Hz. Differences are observed between responses from the left eye and the right eye, and also between subjects. The methodology shows potential as a neurological functional imaging technique that can be further developed for diagnosis and monitoring using scalp EEG which is less invasive and less expensive than magnetic resonance imaging.

Scheduling decisions and their dynamic consequences on construction performance

Construction practitioners often experience unexpected results of their scheduling-related decisions. This is mainly due to lack of understanding of the dynamic nature of construction system. However, very little attention has been given to its significant importance and few empirical studies have been undertaken on this issue. This paper, therefore, analyzes the effect of aggressive scheduling, overtime, resource adding, and schedule slippage on construction performance, focusing on workers’ reactions to those scheduling decisions. Survey data from 102 construction practitioners in 38 construction sites are used for the analysis. The results indicate that efforts to increase work rate by working overtime, resource adding, and aggressive scheduling can be offset due to losses in productivity and quality. Based on the research findings, practical guidelines are then discussed to help site managers to effectively deal with the dynamics of scheduling and improve construction performance.

Effects of schedule pressure on construction performance

Accelerating a project can be rewarding. The consequences, however, can be troublesome if productivity and quality are sacrificed for the sake of remaining ahead of schedule, such that the actual schedule benefits are often barely worth the effort. The tradeoffs and paths of schedule pressure and its causes and effects are often overlooked when schedule decisions are being made. This paper analyses the effects that schedule pressure has on construction performance, and focuses on tradeoffs in scheduling. A research framework has been developed using a causal diagram to illustrate the cause-and-effect analysis of schedule pressure. An empirical investigation has been performed by using survey data collected from 102 construction practitioners working in 38 construction sites in Singapore. The results of this survey data analysis indicate that advantages of increasing the pace of work—by working under schedule pressure—can be offset by losses in productivity and quality. The negative effects of schedule pressure arise mainly by working out of sequence, generating work defects, cutting corners, and losing the motivation to work. The adverse effects of schedule pressure can be minimized by scheduling construction activities realistically and planning them proactively, motivating workers, and by establishing an effective project coordination and communication mechanism.