183 resultados para stokastinen optimointi
Resumo:
Tämä diplomityö tutkii eri elinkaarihallinnan menetelmiä ja vertaa niitä TVO:n menetelmiin. Lisäksi TVO:n prosessin ongelmakohdat tunnistetaan ja niihin esitetään ratkaisuja. Vertailukohteina toimii ydinvoimateollisuuden lisäksi vesivoima, fossiiliset voimalaitokset sekä paperiteollisuus. Sähkön hinnan jatkaessa laskuaan on elinkaariajattelusta tullut ajankohtaista myös ydinvoimayhtiöille. Ydinvoimalaitoksien pitkän suunnitellun käyttöiän ansiosta laitoksen elinkaaren aikana voi tapahtua useita asioita, jotka vaikuttavat laitoksen investointitarpeisiin. Turvallisen sähköntuotannon varmistamiseksi eri laitososia on joko muokattava tai uusittava. Elinkaariajatteluun kuuluu tehokas laitoksen kunnon valvonta, laitoksen ikääntymiseen vaikuttavien ilmiöiden tunnistaminen, sekä ikääntymistä hillitsevien toimenpiteiden pitkän tähtäimen suunnittelu. Hyvällä ennakkosuunnittelulla pyritään varmistamaan se, että laitoksella voidaan tuottaa sähköä koko sen jäljellä olevan käyttöiän aikana. Kun tarpeiden tunnistus ja suunnittelu tehdään hyvissä ajoin mahdollistetaan myös investointien optimointi. Paras hyöty pyritään saamaan ajoittamalla oikeat investoinnit oikeaan aikaan.
Resumo:
The electricity market and climate are both undergoing a change. The changes impact hydropower and provoke an interest for hydropower capacity increases. In this thesis a new methodology was developed utilising short-term hydropower optimisation and planning software for better capacity increase profitability analysis accuracy. In the methodology income increases are calculated in month long periods while varying average discharge and electricity price volatility. The monthly incomes are used for constructing year scenarios, and from different types of year scenarios a long-term profitability analysis can be made. Average price development is included utilising a multiplier. The method was applied on Oulujoki hydropower plants. It was found that the capacity additions that were analysed for Oulujoki were not profitable. However, the methodology was found versatile and useful. The result showed that short periods of peaking prices play major role in the profitability of capacity increases. Adding more discharge capacity to hydropower plants that initially bypassed water more often showed the best improvements both in income and power generation profile flexibility.
Resumo:
The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.