Fast and accurate business process drift detection

Business processes are prone to continuous and unexpected changes. Process workers may start executing a process differently in order to adjust to changes in workload, season, guidelines or regulations for example. Early detection of business process changes based on their event logs – also known as business process drift detection – enables analysts to identify and act upon changes that may otherwise affect process performance. Previous methods for business process drift detection are based on an exploration of a potentially large feature space and in some cases they require users to manually identify the specific features that characterize the drift. Depending on the explored feature set, these methods may miss certain types of changes. This paper proposes a fully automated and statistically grounded method for detecting process drift. The core idea is to perform statistical tests over the distributions of runs observed in two consecutive time windows. By adaptively sizing the window, the method strikes a trade-off between classification accuracy and drift detection delay. A validation on synthetic and real-life logs shows that the method accurately detects typical change patterns and scales up to the extent it is applicable for online drift detection.

Social media, audiences, and audience co-creativity in contemporary performance: Restoring balance?

Producers, technicians, performers, audiences and critics are all critical components of the performing arts ecology – critical components of an ecosystem that have to come together into some sort of productive relationship if the performing arts are to be vital, viable and successful. Different performance practices developed in different times, spaces and places do, of course, connect these players in different ways as part of their attempt to achieve their own definition of success, be it based on entertainment, educational, expression, empowerment, or something else. In some contemporary performance practices, social media platforms, applications and processes are seen to have significant potential to restore balance to the relationship between performer and audience, providing audiences with more power to participate in a performance event. In this paper, I investigate prevailing assumptions about social media’s power to democratise performance practice, or, at least, develop more co-creative performance practices in which producers, performers and audiences participate actively before, during and after the event. I focus, in particular, on the use of social media as a means of developing a participatory aesthetic in which an audience member is asked to contribute to the cast of characters, plot or progression of a performance. Although diverse – from performances streamed online, to performances that offer transmedia components the audience can use to learn more about character, context and plot online, to performances that incorporate online voting, liking or linking, to performances that unfold fully online on websites, blogs, microblogs or other social media platforms – what a lot of uses of social media in contemporary performance today share is a desire to encourage audiences to reflect on their role in making, and making meaning, of the event. In this paper I interrogate if, and if so how, this democratises or develops deeper levels of co-creativity in the relationship between producers, performers and audiences.

Redefining dermatologists’ role in skin cancer early detection and follow-up care

Early diagnosis of melanoma leads to the best prognosis for patients and may be more likely achieved when those who are at high risk for melanoma undergo regular and systematic monitoring. However, many people rarely or never see a dermatologist. Risk prediction models (recently reviewed by Usher-Smith et al ) could assist to triage people into preventive care appropriate for their risk profile. Most risk prediction models contain measures of phenotype including skin, eye and hair colour as well as genetic mutations. Almost all also contain the number and size of naevi, as well as the presence of naevi with atypical features which are independently associated with melanoma risk. In the absence of formal population-based screening programs for melanoma in most countries worldwide, people with high risk phenotypes may need to consider regular monitoring or self-monitoring of their naevi , especially since the vast majority of melanomas are found by people themselves or their friend and relatives. Another group of patients that will require regular monitoring are patients who have been successfully treated for their first melanoma, whose risk to develop a second melanoma is greatly increased . In a US study of 89,515 melanoma survivors those with a previous diagnosis of melanoma had a 9-fold increased risk of developing subsequent melanoma compared with the general population, equating to a rate of 3.76 per 1000 person-years, while in an Australian study, risk of subsequent melanoma was 6 per 1000 person-years. Regular follow-up is therefore essential for melanoma survivors, especially during the first few years after initial melanoma diagnosis.

Microscopy for the detection, identification and quantification of malaria parasites on stained thick and thin blood films in research settings

Summary This manual was developed to guide a move towards common standards for undertaking and reporting research microscopy for malaria parasite detection, identification and quantification. It contains procedures based on agreed quality assurance standards for research malaria microscopy defined at a consultation of: TDR, the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases; the Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN), United Kingdom; the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND), Switzerland; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), USA; the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) and later expanded to include Amref Health Africa (Kenya); the Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit (EOCRU), Indonesia; Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (IPC); Institut de recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Senegal; the Global Good and Intellectual Ventures Laboratory (GG-IVL), USA; the Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Thailand; Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Australia, and the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit (SMRU), Thailand. These collaborating institutions commit to adhering to these standards in published research studies. It is hoped that they will form a solid basis for the wider adoption of standardized reference microscopy protocols for malaria research.

Social media and niche sports: The netball ANZ championship and commonwealth games on twitter

This article analyses and compares Twitter activity for the niche sport of netball over the 2013 trans-Tasman ANZ Championship competition and the international Commonwealth Games event in 2014. Patterns within the Twitter data that were discovered through an analysis of the 2013 ANZ Championship season are considered in terms of the Commonwealth Games, and thus compared between a quasi-domestic and an international context. In particular, we highlight the extent to which niche sports such as netball attempt to capitalise on the opportunities provided by social media, and the challenges involved in coordinating event-specific hashtags, such as the #netball2014 hashtag promoted by the Commonwealth Games Federation.

#auspol: The hashtag as community, event, and material object for engaging with Australian politics

Critical, loud, highly discursive and polarised; the #auspol hashtag represents a space, an event and a network for politically involved individuals to engage in and with Australian politics and speak to, at and about a variety of involved stakeholders. Contributors declare, debate and often berate each other’s opinions about current Australian politics. The hashtag itself is an important material object and engagement event involved within this performance of political participation. As a long-standing institution in the Twittersphere, and one studied by the authors and their colleagues since its early beginnings (Bruns and Burgess, 2011; Bruns and Stieglitz, 2012; 2013), the #auspol hashtag provides a potent case study through which to explore the discursive and affective dimensions of a hashtag public. This chapter that engages both empirically and theoretically with the use of this particular hashtag on Twitter to provide a qualitatively illustrated case in point for thinking about the long-term use of political hashtags as engagement events.

Other Side of This Life : Death, Value, and Social Being in Thomas Pynchon's Fiction

This dissertation analyzes the interrelationship between death, the conditions of (wo)man s social being, and the notion of value as it emerges in the fiction of the American novelist Thomas Pynchon (1937 ). Pynchon s present work includes six novels V. (1963), The Crying of Lot 49 (1966), Gravity s Rainbow (1973), Vineland (1990), Mason & Dixon (1997), Against the Day (2006) and several short stories. Death constitues a central thematic in Pynchon s work, and it emerges through recurrent questions of mortality, suicide, mass destruction, sacrifice, afterlife, entropy, the relationship between the animate and the inanimate, and the limits of representation. In Pynchon, death is never a mere biological given (or event); it is always determined within a certain historical, cultural, and ideological context. Throughout his work, Pynchon questions the strict ontological separation of life and death by showing the relationship between this separation and social power. Conceptual divisions also reflect the relationship between society and its others, and death becomes that through which lines of social demarcation are articulated. Determined as a conceptual and social "other side", death in Pynchon forms a challenge to modern culture, and makes an unexpected return: the dead return to haunt the living, the inanimate and the animate fuse, and technoscientific attempts at overcoming and controlling death result in its re-emergence in mass destruction and ecological damage. The questioning of the ontological line also affects the structuration of Pynchon's prose, where the recurrent narrated and narrative desire to reach the limits of representation is openly associated with death. Textualized, death appears in Pynchon's writing as a sudden rupture within the textual functioning, when the "other side", that is, the bare materiality of the signifier is foregrounded. In this study, Pynchon s cultural criticism and his poetics come together, and I analyze the subversive role of death in his fiction through Jean Baudrillard s genealogy of the modern notion of death from L échange symbolique et la mort (1976). Baudrillard sees an intrinsic bond between the social repression of death in modernity and the emergence of modern political economy, and in his analysis economy and language appear as parallel systems for generating value (exchange value/ sign-value). For Baudrillard, the modern notion of death as negativity in relation to the positivity of life, and the fact that death cannot be given a proper meaning, betray an antagonistic relation between death and the notion of value. As a mode of negativity (that is, non-value), death becomes a moment of rupture in relation to value-based thinking in short, rationalism. Through this rupture emerges a form of thinking Baudrillard labels the symbolic, characterized by ambivalence and the subversion of conceptual opposites.

Sensory auditory processing and intuitive sound detection : an investigation of musical experts and nonexperts

The auditory system can detect occasional changes (deviants) in acoustic regularities without the need for subjects to focus their attention on the sound material. Deviant detection is reflected in the elicitation of the mismatch negativity component (MMN) of the event-related potentials. In the studies presented in this thesis, the MMN is used to investigate the auditory abilities for detecting similarities and regularities in sound streams. To investigate the limits of these processes, professional musicians have been tested in some of the studies. The results show that auditory grouping is already more advanced in musicians than in nonmusicians and that the auditory system of musicians can, unlike that of nonmusicians, detect a numerical regularity of always four tones in a series. These results suggest that sensory auditory processing in musicians is not only a fine tuning of universal abilities, but is also qualitatively more advanced than in nonmusicians. In addition, the relationship between the auditory change-detection function and perception is examined. It is shown that, contrary to the generally accepted view, MMN elicitation does not necessarily correlate with perception. The outcome of the auditory change-detection function can be implicit and the implicit knowledge of the sound structure can, after training, be utilized for behaviorally correct intuitive sound detection. These results illustrate the automatic character of the sensory change detection function.

Teledermatology: Its use in the detection and management of actinic keratosis

Teledermatology can profoundly improve access to medical services for those who may have limited access to dermatology due to workforce shortages, distance to providers, or limitations in their mobility. Two common ways of teledermatology are differentiated: life synchronous, where patient and doctor communicate directly, or store and forward asynchronous methods, where the patient and doctor provide and assess the medical information independently. Teledermatology has been tested for its safety, feasibility and accuracy for a number of dermatological conditions, including the early detection of skin cancer and is usually safe, feasible and accurate. Studies reported somewhat better results for synchronous than asynchronous methods, possibly because of loss of information if no direct patient doctor contact is feasible. However asynchronous methods are easier to organize, require less sophisticated technology and are more widely accessible, and are more convenient for both patients and doctors. No study to date focused solely on teledermatology of actinic keratosis, but such lesions are typically found during teledermatology examinations for other main target lesions. In studies where such results were reported, actinic keratoses seemed to be readily identifiable for teledermatologists and adequate management and treatment can be suggested within remote consultations.

Life events and social support among patients with major depressive disorder

The study is part of a research project of 269 psychiatric patients with major depression, Vantaa Depression Study, in the Department of Mental Health and Alcohol Research of the National Public Health Institute and the Department of Psychiatry of the Peijas Medical Care District. The aim was to study at the onset of MDE psychosocial differences in subgroups of patients and clustering of events into time before depression and its prodromal phase, to study whether more severe life events and less social support predict poorer outcome in all patients, but most among those currently in partial remission, whether social support declines as a consequence of time spent in MDE, is sensitive to improvement, and whether social support is influenced by neuroticism and extraversion. After screening, a semistructured interview (SCAN, version 2.0) was used for the presence of DSM-IV MDE, and other psychiatric diagnoses. Life events and social support were studied with semistructured methods (IRLE, Paykel 1983; IMSR, Brugha et al. 1987), perceived social support and neuroticism/extraversion with questionnaires (PSSS-R, Blumenthal et al. 1987; EPI, Eysenck and Eysenck 1964) at baseline, 6 and 18 months. At the onset of depression life events were common. No major differences between subgroups of patients were found; the younger had more events, whereas those with comorbid alcoholism and personality disorders perceived less support. Although events were distributed evenly between the time before depression, the prodromal phase and the index MDE, two thirds of the patients attributed their depression to some life event. Adversities and poor perceived support influenced the outcome of all psychiatric patients, most in the subgroup of full remission. In the partial remission group, the impact of severe events and in the MDE, perceived support was important. Low objective and subjective support were predicted by longer time spent in MDE. Along with improvement subjective support improved. Neuroticism and extraversion were associated with the size of social network and perceived support and predicted change of perceived support. In conclusion, adversities were common in all phases of depression. They may thus have many roles; before depression they may precipitate it, in the prodromal phase worsen symptoms, and during the MDE, the outcome of depression. Patients often attributed their depression to a life event. Psychosocial subgroup differences were quite small. Perceived support predicted the outcome of depression, and time spent in MDE objective and subjective support. Neuroticism and extraversion may modify the level and change particularly in perceived support, thereby indirectly effecting vulnerability to depression.

The short-term effects of a routine poisoning campaign on the movements and detectability of a social top-predator

Top-predators can be important components of resilient ecosystems, but they are still controlled in many places to mitigate a variety of economic, environmental and/or social impacts. Lethal control is often achieved through the broad-scale application of poisoned baits. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of such lethal control on subsequent movements and behaviour of survivors is an important pre-requisite for interpreting the efficacy and ecological outcomes of top-predator control. In this study, we use GPS tracking collars to investigate the fine-scale and short-term movements of dingoes (Canis lupus dingo and other wild dogs) in response to a routine poison-baiting program as an example of how a common, social top-predator can respond (behaviourally) to moderate levels of population reduction. We found no consistent control-induced differences in home range size or location, daily distance travelled, speed of travel, temporal activity patterns or road/trail usage for the seven surviving dingoes we monitored immediately before and after a typical lethal control event. These data suggest that the spatial behaviour of surviving dingoes was not altered in ways likely to affect their detectability, and if control-induced changes in dingoes' ecological function did occur, these may not be related to altered spatial behaviour or movement patterns.

Survival analysis of time-to-event data in respiratory health research studies

This article provides a review of techniques for the analysis of survival data arising from respiratory health studies. Popular techniques such as the Kaplan–Meier survival plot and the Cox proportional hazards model are presented and illustrated using data from a lung cancer study. Advanced issues are also discussed, including parametric proportional hazards models, accelerated failure time models, time-varying explanatory variables, simultaneous analysis of multiple types of outcome events and the restricted mean survival time, a novel measure of the effect of treatment.

Semantic Classes in Topic Detection and Tracking

Topic detection and tracking (TDT) is an area of information retrieval research the focus of which revolves around news events. The problems TDT deals with relate to segmenting news text into cohesive stories, detecting something new, previously unreported, tracking the development of a previously reported event, and grouping together news that discuss the same event. The performance of the traditional information retrieval techniques based on full-text similarity has remained inadequate for online production systems. It has been difficult to make the distinction between same and similar events. In this work, we explore ways of representing and comparing news documents in order to detect new events and track their development. First, however, we put forward a conceptual analysis of the notions of topic and event. The purpose is to clarify the terminology and align it with the process of news-making and the tradition of story-telling. Second, we present a framework for document similarity that is based on semantic classes, i.e., groups of words with similar meaning. We adopt people, organizations, and locations as semantic classes in addition to general terms. As each semantic class can be assigned its own similarity measure, document similarity can make use of ontologies, e.g., geographical taxonomies. The documents are compared class-wise, and the outcome is a weighted combination of class-wise similarities. Third, we incorporate temporal information into document similarity. We formalize the natural language temporal expressions occurring in the text, and use them to anchor the rest of the terms onto the time-line. Upon comparing documents for event-based similarity, we look not only at matching terms, but also how near their anchors are on the time-line. Fourth, we experiment with an adaptive variant of the semantic class similarity system. The news reflect changes in the real world, and in order to keep up, the system has to change its behavior based on the contents of the news stream. We put forward two strategies for rebuilding the topic representations and report experiment results. We run experiments with three annotated TDT corpora. The use of semantic classes increased the effectiveness of topic tracking by 10-30\% depending on the experimental setup. The gain in spotting new events remained lower, around 3-4\%. The anchoring the text to a time-line based on the temporal expressions gave a further 10\% increase the effectiveness of topic tracking. The gains in detecting new events, again, remained smaller. The adaptive systems did not improve the tracking results.

Social evolution - Has nature ever rewound the tape?

Social insects such as ants, bees, wasps and termites exhibit extreme forms of altruism where some individuals remain sterile and assist other individuals in reproduction. Hamilton's inclusive fitness theory provides a powerful framework for investigating the evolution of such altruism. Using the paper wasp Ropalidia marginata, we have quantified and delineated the role of ecological, physiological, genetic and demographic factors in social evolution. An interesting feature of the models we have developed is their symmetry so that either altruism or selfishness can evolve, depending on the numerical values of various parameters. This suggests that selfish/solitary behaviour must occasionally re-emerge even from the eusocial state, It is useful to contemplate expected intermediate states during such potential reversals. We can perhaps envisage three successive steps in such a hypothetical process: i) workers revolt against the hegemony of the queen and challenge her status as the sole reproductive, ii) workers stop producing queens and one or more of them function as egg layers (functional queen/s) capable of producing both haploid as well as diploid offspring and iii) social evolution reverses completely so that a eusocial species becomes solitary, at least facultatively. It appears that the third step, namely transition from eusociality to the solitary state, is rare and has been restricted to transitions from the primitively eusocial state only. The absence of transitions from the highly eusocial state to the solitary state may be attributed to a number of 'preventing mechanisms' such as (a) queen control of workers (b) loss of spermathecae and ability to mate (c) morphological specialization (d) caste polyethism and (e) homeostasis, which must each make the transition difficult and, taken together, perhaps very difficult. However, the discovery of a transition from the highly eusocial to the solitary state can hardly he ruled out, given that little or no effort has gone into its detection. In this paper I discuss social evolution and its possible reversal and cite potential examples of stages in the transition from the social to the solitary.

vSpeak: Edge detection based feature extraction for sign to text conversion

This paper presents 'vSpeak', the first initiative taken in Pakistan for ICT enabled conversion of dynamic Sign Urdu gestures into natural language sentences. To realize this, vSpeak has adopted a novel approach for feature extraction using edge detection and image compression which gives input to the Artificial Neural Network that recognizes the gesture. This technique caters for the blurred images as well. The training and testing is currently being performed on a dataset of 200 patterns of 20 words from Sign Urdu with target accuracy of 90% and above.