934 resultados para small area estimation
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Syria has been a major producer and exporter of fresh fruit and vegetables (FFV) in the Arabic region. Prior to 2011, Syrian FFV were mainly exported to the neighbouring countries, the Gulf States and Northern Africa as well as to Eastern European countries. Although the EU is potentially one of the most profitable markets of high quality FFV (such as organic ones) in the world, Syrian exports of FFV to Western European countries like Germany have been small. It could be a lucrative opportunity for Syrian growers and exporters of FFV to export organic products to markets such as Germany, where national production is limited to a few months due to climatic conditions. Yet, the organic sector in Syria is comparatively young and only a very small area of FFV is certified according to EU organic regulations. Up to the author’s knowledge, little was known about Syrian farmers’ attitudes towards organic FFV production. There was also no study so far that explored and analysed the determining factors for organic FFV adoption among Syrian farmers as well as the exports of these products to the EU markets. The overarching aim of the present dissertation focused on exploring and identifying the market potential of Syrian exports of organic FFV to Germany. The dissertation was therefore concerned with three main objectives: (i) to explore if German importers and wholesalers of organic FFV see market opportunities for Syrian organic products and what requirements in terms of quality and quantity they have, (ii) to determine the obstacles Syrian producers and exporters face when exporting agricultural products to Germany, and (iii) to investigate whether Syrian farmers of FFV can imagine converting their farms to organic production as well as the underlying reasons why they do so or not. A twofold methodological approach with expert interviews and a farmer survey were used in this dissertation to address the abovementioned objectives. While expert interviews were conducted with German and Syrian wholesalers of (organic) FFV in 2011 (9 interviews each), the farmer survey was administrated with 266 Syrian farmers of FFV in the main region for the production of FFV (i.e. the coastal region) from November 2012 till May 2013. For modelling farmers’ decisions to adopt organic farming, the Theory of Planned Behaviour as theoretical framework and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling as the main method for data analysis were used in this study. The findings of this dissertation yield implications for the different stakeholders (governmental institutions and NGOs, farmers, exporters, wholesalers, etc.) who are interested in prompting the Syrian export of organic products. Based on the empirical results and a literature review, an action plan to promote Syrian production and export of organic products was developed which can help in the post-war period in Syria at improving the organic sector.
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[EN] The Giant Lizard of El Hierro, Gallotia simonyi is one of the most endangered reptile species of the world (Corbett 1989, 1993, Machado et al. 1985). The first scientific news about a living population of G. simonyi dates back to 1975 (Böhme & Bings 1975, 1977; see also Bischoff et al. 1979). The giant lizard, widely distributed in El Hierro in the past (Böhme et al. 1981) is presently restricted to a small area of the Fuga de Gorreta (fig. 1).
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The effects of partial removal of epididymal (EPI) and retroperitoneal (RET) adipose tissues (partial lipectomy) on the triacylglycerol deposition of high fat diet induced obese rats were analyzed, aiming to challenge the hypothesized body fat regulatory system. Male 28-day-old wistar rats received a diet enriched with peanuts, milk chocolate and sweet biscuits during the experimental period. At the 90th day of life, rats were submitted to either lipectomy (L) or sham surgery. After 7 or 30 days, RET, EPI, liver, brown adipose tissue (BAT), blood and carcass were obtained and analyzed. Seven days following surgery, liver lipogenesis rate and EPI relative weight were increased in L. After 30 days, L, RET and EPI presented increased lipogenesis, lipolysis and percentage of small area adipocytes. L rats also presented increased liver malic enzyme activity, BAT lipogenesis, and triacylglycerol and corticosterone serum levels. The partial removal of visceral fat pads affected the metabolism of high fat diet obese rats, which leads to excised tissue re-growth and possibly compensatory growth of non-excised depots at a later time.
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We analyzed the effects of partial fat pad removal on retroperitoneal and epididymal fat depots and carcass metabolism of control (C) and MSG-obese (M) rats. Three-month-old C and M male Wistar rats were submitted to either partial surgical excision of epididymal and retroperitoneal fat tissue (lipectomy, L) or sham surgery (S) and studied after 7 or 30 days. Retroperitoneal and epididymal tissue re-growth after lipectomy was not observed, as indicated by the low pads weight of the L groups. The lipolysis rate was stimulated in LC7 and LM7, probably due to surgical stress and low insulin levels. In LM7, but not in LC7, in vivo lipogenesis rate increased in retroperitoneal and epididymal fat tissue, as did the diet-derived lipid accumulation in epididymal fat tissue. Although these local increases were no longer present in LM30, this group showed a large increase in the percentage of small area adipocytes in both pads as well as increased carcass lipogenesis rate. The present data showed that the partial removal of fat depots affected the metabolism of control and MSG-obese rats differently. In the obese animals only, it stimulated both local and carcass lipogenesis rate as well as adipocyte differentiation, i.e. responses likely to favor excised tissue re-growth and/or compensatory growth of non-excised depots.
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The occurrence frequency of failure events serve as critical indexes representing the safety status of dam-reservoir systems. Although overtopping is the most common failure mode with significant consequences, this type of event, in most cases, has a small probability. Estimation of such rare event risks for dam-reservoir systems with crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation techniques requires a prohibitively large number of trials, where significant computational resources are required to reach the satisfied estimation results. Otherwise, estimation of the disturbances would not be accurate enough. In order to reduce the computation expenses and improve the risk estimation efficiency, an importance sampling (IS) based simulation approach is proposed in this dissertation to address the overtopping risks of dam-reservoir systems. Deliverables of this study mainly include the following five aspects: 1) the reservoir inflow hydrograph model; 2) the dam-reservoir system operation model; 3) the CMC simulation framework; 4) the IS-based Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation framework; and 5) the overtopping risk estimation comparison of both CMC and ISMC simulation. In a broader sense, this study meets the following three expectations: 1) to address the natural stochastic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system, such as the reservoir inflow rate; 2) to build up the fundamental CMC and ISMC simulation frameworks of the dam-reservoir system in order to estimate the overtopping risks; and 3) to compare the simulation results and the computational performance in order to demonstrate the ISMC simulation advantages. The estimation results of overtopping probability could be used to guide the future dam safety investigations and studies, and to supplement the conventional analyses in decision making on the dam-reservoir system improvements. At the same time, the proposed methodology of ISMC simulation is reasonably robust and proved to improve the overtopping risk estimation. The more accurate estimation, the smaller variance, and the reduced CPU time, expand the application of Monte Carlo (MC) technique on evaluating rare event risks for infrastructures.
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Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Geografia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia, 2015.
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Ex-situ conservation and the in-situ conservation of natural habitats are the tools to conserve biodiversity. Habitats and ecosystems have been becoming altered by human activities and a growing number of species requires form of management to ensure their survival. Conservation queries become more complex and urgent. Developing scientifically based and innovative approaches to ex-situ conservation is necessary. Recent studies underline importance of gut microbiome in animal health with implications for animal conservation and management. Animal and human studies have demonstrated that environmental factors can impact gut microbiome composition. Within this scenario, the present work focused on species belonging to different taxa, reptiles and mammals: Aldabrachelys gigantea, the giant tortoise of the Seychelles islands and Indri indri, the greatest leaving lemur of Madagascar. The Seychelles giant tortoise is vulnerable species with declining population, whereas the indri is a critically endangered species that could reach the extinction within 25 years. Both need research to help them to survive. Tortoises live for very long time and to observe how they can afford the environmental changes is very difficult. Indris, instead, are able to survive only in a small area of the Madagascar forest, with a very strong link between the species’ survival and the environment. The obtained results underline importance of environmental factors, both in-situ and ex-situ, for species conservation. Microbiome could help the organisms to respond on a short timescale and cope with, environmental changes. However, species with long generation time might not be able to adapt to fast changes but bacteria with a short generation time can adapt on a shorter timescale allowing the host to cope with fluctuating environment. Gut microbiome plays an important role in an animal’s health and has the potential to improve the management of individuals under human care for conservation purposes.
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Interfacing materials with different intrinsic chemical-physical characteristics allows for the generation of a new system with multifunctional features. Here, this original concept is implemented for tailoring the functional properties of bi-dimensional black phosphorus (2D bP or phosphorene) and organic light-emitting transistors (OLETs). Phosphorene is highly reactive under atmospheric conditions and its small-area/lab-scale deposition techniques have hampered the introduction of this material in real-world applications so far. The protection of 2D bP against the oxygen by means of functionalization with alkane molecules and pyrene derivatives, showed long-term stability with respect to the bare 2D bP by avoiding remarkable oxidation up to 6 months, paving the way towards ultra-sensitive oxygen chemo-sensors. A new approach of deposition-precipitation heterogeneous reaction was developed to decorate 2D bP with Au nanoparticles (NP)s, obtaining a “stabilizer-free” that may broaden the possible applications of the 2D bP/Au NPs interface in catalysis and biodiagnostics. Finally, 2D bP was deposited by electrospray technique, obtaining oxidized-phosphorous flakes as wide as hundreds of µm2 and providing for the first time a phosphorous-based bidimensional system responsive to electromechanical stimuli. The second part of the thesis focuses on the study of organic heterostructures in ambipolar OLET devices, intriguing optoelectronic devices that couple the micro-scaled light-emission with electrical switching. Initially, an ambipolar single-layer OLET based on a multifunctional organic semiconductor, is presented. The bias-depending light-emission shifted within the transistor channel, as expected in well-balanced ambipolar OLETs. However, the emitted optical power of the single layer-based device was unsatisfactory. To improve optoelectronic performance of the device, a multilayer organic architecture based on hole-transporting semiconductor, emissive donor-acceptor blend and electron-transporting semiconductor was optimized. We showed that the introduction of a suitable electron-injecting layer at the interface between the electron-transporting and light-emission layers may enable a ≈ 2× improvement of efficiency at reduced applied bias.
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The knowledge of soil water storage (SWS) of soil profiles is crucial for the adoption of vegetation restoration practices. With the aim of identifying representative sites to obtain the mean SWS of a watershed, a time stability analysis of neutron probe evaluations of SWS was performed by the means of relative differences and Spearman rank correlation coefficients. At the same time, the effects of different neutron probe calibration procedures were explored on time stability analysis. mean SWS estimation. and preservation of the spatial variability of SWS. The selected watershed, with deep gullies and undulating slopes which cover an area of 20 ha, is characterized by an Ust-Sandiic Entisol and an Aeolian sandy soil. The dominant vegetation species are bunge needlegrass (Stipa bungeana Trim) and korshinsk peashrub (Carugano Korshinskii kom.). From June 11, 2007 to July 23,2008, SWS of the top1 m soil layer was evaluated for 20 dates, based on neutron probe data of 12 sampling sites. Three calibration procedures were employed: type 1, most complete, with each site having its own linear calibration equation (TrE); type II. with TrE equations extended over the whole field: and type III, with one single linear calibration curve for the whole field (UnE) and also correcting its intercept based on site specific relative difference analysis (RdE) and on linear fitting of data (RcE), both maintaining the same slope. A strong time stability of SWS estimated by TrE equations was identified. Soil particle size and soil organic matter content were recognized as the influencing factors for spatial variability of SWS. Land use influenced neither the spatial variability nor the time stability of SWS. Time stability analysis identified one site to represent the mean SWS of the whole watershed with mean absolute percentage errors of less than 10%, therefore. this site can be used as a predictor for the mean SWS of the watershed. Some equations of type II were found to be unsatisfactory to yield reliable mean SWS values or in preserving the associated soil spatial variability. Hence, it is recommended to be cautious in extending calibration equations to other sites since they might not consider the field variability. For the equations with corrected intercept (type III), which consider the spatial variability of calibration in a different way in relation to TrE, it was found that they can yield satisfactory means and standard deviation of SWS, except for the RdE equations, which largely leveled off the SWS values in the watershed. Correlation analysis showed that the neutron probe calibration was linked to soil bulk density and to organic matter content. Therefore, spatial variability of soil properties should be taken into account during the process of neutron probe calibration. This study provides useful information on the mean SWS observation with a time stable site and on distinct neutron probe calibration procedures, and it should be extended to soil water management studies with neutron probes, e.g., the process of vegetation restoration in wider area and soil types of the Loess Plateau in China. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The leaf area index (LAI) of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations is highly dynamic both seasonally and interannually, and is spatially variable depending on pedo-climatic conditions. LAI is very important in determining the carbon and water balance of a stand, but is difficult to measure during a complete stand rotation and at large scales. Remote-sensing methods allowing the retrieval of LAI time series with accuracy and precision are therefore necessary. Here, we tested two methods for LAI estimation from MODIS 250m resolution red and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance time series. The first method involved the inversion of a coupled model of leaf reflectance and transmittance (PROSPECT4), soil reflectance (SOILSPECT) and canopy radiative transfer (4SAIL2). Model parameters other than the LAI were either fixed to measured constant values, or allowed to vary seasonally and/or with stand age according to trends observed in field measurements. The LAI was assumed to vary throughout the rotation following a series of alternately increasing and decreasing sigmoid curves. The parameters of each sigmoid curve that allowed the best fit of simulated canopy reflectance to MODIS red and NIR reflectance data were obtained by minimization techniques. The second method was based on a linear relationship between the LAI and values of the GEneralized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (GESAVI), which was calibrated using destructive LAI measurements made at two seasons, on Eucalyptus stands of different ages and productivity levels. The ability of each approach to reproduce field-measured LAI values was assessed, and uncertainty on results and parameter sensitivities were examined. Both methods offered a good fit between measured and estimated LAI (R(2) = 0.80 and R(2) = 0.62 for model inversion and GESAVI-based methods, respectively), but the GESAVI-based method overestimated the LAI at young ages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
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This paper is inspired by articles in the last decade or so that have argued for more attention to theory, and to empirical analysis, within the well-known, and long-lasting, contingency framework for explaining the organisational form of the firm. Its contribution is to extend contingency analysis in three ways: (a) by empirically testing it, using explicit econometric modelling (rather than case study evidence) involving estimation by ordered probit analysis; (b) by extending its scope from large firms to SMEs; (c) by extending its applications from Western economic contexts, to an emerging economy context, using field work evidence from China. It calibrates organizational form in a new way, as an ordinal dependent variable, and also utilises new measures of familiar contingency factors from the literature (i.e. Environment, Strategy, Size and Technology) as the independent variables. An ordered probit model of contingency was constructed, and estimated by maximum likelihood, using a cross section of 83 private Chinese firms. The probit was found to be a good fit to the data, and displayed significant coefficients with plausible interpretations for key variables under all the four categories of contingency analysis, namely Environment, Strategy, Size and Technology. Thus we have generalised the contingency model, in terms of specification, interpretation and applications area.
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Properties of GMM estimators for panel data, which have become very popular in the empirical economic growth literature, are not well known when the number of individuals is small. This paper analyses through Monte Carlo simulations the properties of various GMM and other estimators when the number of individuals is the one typically available in country growth studies. It is found that, provided that some persistency is present in the series, the system GMM estimator has a lower bias and higher efficiency than all the other estimators analysed, including the standard first-differences GMM estimator.
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The analyses of the ectoparasite species associated with a small mammal community on Ilha Grande, a coastal island in southern of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, evaluated the level of host-ectoparasite specificity. Was used the Jaccard index for qualitative data to analyse the similarity. The lowest value of similarity occurred between Proechimys iheringi and Marmosops incanus and between Sciurus aestuans and Nectomys squamipes (Cj = 0.08) and the highest between P. iheringi and Oxymycterus sp. (Cj = 0.33). This index showed a low value of similarity across the ectoparasite community. The only exception from this pattern of high host specificity occurred with P. iheringi and Oxymycterus sp., which shared five species of ectoparasites. The similarity values, for most of the cases, is smaller than 0.2.
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Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed.