914 resultados para scenario-based assessment


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A Casa Grande de Romarigães terá sido erguida em 1700 em Romarigães, no concelho de Paredes de Coura, em torno da construção da capela de Nossa Senhora do Amparo, conformando a Quinta do Amparo. Terá servido de cenário literário a uma das mais simbólicas obras do escritor Aquilino Ribeiro – A Casa Grande de Romarigães, escrita entre 1950 e 1957, ano da sua publicação. A estrutura arquitectónica foi classificada como Imóvel de Interesse Público em 1986, atribuição que, apesar de demonstrar a preocupação de proteger e conservar este legado histórico e arquitectónico, ainda não derivou em nenhum estudo rigoroso sobre a sua evolução morfológica – instrumento fundamental para a coerência de futuras intervenções neste lugar. Com base nas constantes descrições na obra de Aquilino Ribeiro, e do seu confronto com a documentação histórica entretanto encontrada (escrita e gráfica, em grande parte inédita), este trabalho de investigação propõe o desenho da evolução morfológica da casa ao longo dos tempos, bem como a enunciação da influência deste solar para a organização social, cultural e económica da aldeia de Romarigães. Procura, enfim, e num sentido mais lato, indagar sobre a utilidade de um documento literário para o lançamento de hipóteses no contexto de uma investigação arquitectónica, consubstanciadas pela posterior comprovação através de fontes primárias; ABSTRACT: A Casa Grande de Romarigães (The Great House of Romarigães) was erected in early XVIII century, in Romarigães, Paredes de Coura, nearby the chapel of Nossa Senhora do Amparo, the chosen name for the villa – Quinta do Amparo. This house and villa has been the literary scene of one of the most remarkable works of the writer Aquilino Ribeiro (1885C1963) – A Casa Grande Romarigães, written between 1950 and 1957, the year of its publication. In 1986, the architectural structure is classified as cultural heritage by the Portuguese state but, despite the meaningful idea of preservation and protection of the historical legacy and architecture, there has not been an initiative to study its morphological evolution and architectural relevance – key tool for future and consistent interventions in such rich and particular scenario. Based on descriptions that can be found in the work of Aquilino Ribeiro, and supported with historical documentation research (both written and graphic, mostly unpublished), this work suggests the design of the morphological evolution of the house over the years, together with the construction of its influence on social, cultural and economic organization of the village of Romarigães. In a broader sense, this work intends to inquire about the usefulness of a literary document for launching assumptions in the context of an architectural research, substantiated by further evidence through primary sources.

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Volcanic ash fallout associated with renewal of explosive activity at Colima, represents a serious threat to the surrounding urbanized area. Here we assess the tephra fallout hazard associated with a Plinian eruption scenario. The eruptive history of Volcán de Colima shows that Plinian eruptions occur approximately every 100 years and the last eruption, the 1913, represents the largest historic eruption of this volcano. We used the last eruption as a reference to discuss volcanic hazard and risk scenarios connected with ash fallout. Tephra fallout deposits are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the advection– diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic particles. Based on a statistical study of wind profiles at Colima region, we first reconstructed ash loading maps and then computed ground load probability maps for different seasons. The obtained results show that a Plinian eruptive scenario at Volcán de Colima, could seriously damage more than 10 small towns and ranches, and potentially affect big cities located at tens of kilometers from the eruptive center. The probability maps obtained are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies

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In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) and mitigation) in order to provide assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and other VIA challenges. The scenario framework is organised around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments, comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across communities.

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The rapid growth of urban areas has a significant impact on traffic and transportation systems. New management policies and planning strategies are clearly necessary to cope with the more than ever limited capacity of existing road networks. The concept of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) arises in this scenario; rather than attempting to increase road capacity by means of physical modifications to the infrastructure, the premise of ITS relies on the use of advanced communication and computer technologies to handle today’s traffic and transportation facilities. Influencing users’ behaviour patterns is a challenge that has stimulated much research in the ITS field, where human factors start gaining great importance to modelling, simulating, and assessing such an innovative approach. This work is aimed at using Multi-agent Systems (MAS) to represent the traffic and transportation systems in the light of the new performance measures brought about by ITS technologies. Agent features have good potentialities to represent those components of a system that are geographically and functionally distributed, such as most components in traffic and transportation. A BDI (beliefs, desires, and intentions) architecture is presented as an alternative to traditional models used to represent the driver behaviour within microscopic simulation allowing for an explicit representation of users’ mental states. Basic concepts of ITS and MAS are presented, as well as some application examples related to the subject. This has motivated the extension of an existing microscopic simulation framework to incorporate MAS features to enhance the representation of drivers. This way demand is generated from a population of agents as the result of their decisions on route and departure time, on a daily basis. The extended simulation model that now supports the interaction of BDI driver agents was effectively implemented, and different experiments were performed to test this approach in commuter scenarios. MAS provides a process-driven approach that fosters the easy construction of modular, robust, and scalable models, characteristics that lack in former result-driven approaches. Its abstraction premises allow for a closer association between the model and its practical implementation. Uncertainty and variability are addressed in a straightforward manner, as an easier representation of humanlike behaviours within the driver structure is provided by cognitive architectures, such as the BDI approach used in this work. This way MAS extends microscopic simulation of traffic to better address the complexity inherent in ITS technologies.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

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Historically, the health risk of mycotoxins had been evaluated on the basis of single-chemical and single-exposure pathway scenarios. However, the co-contamination of foodstuffs with these compounds is being reported at an increasing rate and a multiple-exposure scenario for humans and vulnerable population groups as children is urgently needed. Cereals are among the first solid foods eaten by child and thus constitute an important food group of their diet. Few data are available relatively to early stages child´s exposure to mycotoxins through consumption of cereal-based foods. The present study aims to perform the cumulative risk assessment of mycotoxins present in a set of cereal-based foods including breakfast cereals (BC), processed cereal-based foods (PCBF) and biscuits (BT), consumed by children (1 to 3 years old, n=75) from Lisbon region, Portugal. Children food consumption and occurrence of 12 mycotoxins (aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, fumonisins and trichothecenes) in cereal-based foods were combined to estimate the mycotoxin daily intake, using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Different strategies were used to treat the left censored data. For aflatoxins, as carcinogenic compounds, the margin of exposure (MoE) was calculated as a ratio of BMDL (benchmark dose lower confidence limit) and aflatoxin daily exposure. For the remaining mycotoxins, the output of exposure was compared to the dose reference values (TDI) in order to calculate the hazard quotients (HQ, ratio between exposure and a reference dose). The concentration addition (CA) concept was used for the cumulative risk assessment of multiple mycotoxins. The combined margin of exposure (MoET) and the hazard index (HI) were calculated for aflatoxins and the remaining mycotoxins, respectively. Main results revealed a significant health concern related to aflatoxins and especially aflatoxin M1 exposure according to the MoET and MoE values (below 10000), respectively. HQ and HI values for the remaining mycotoxins were below 1, revealing a low concern from a public health point of view. These are the first results on cumulative risk assessment of multiple mycotoxins present in cereal-based foods consumed by children. Considering the present results, more research studies are needed to provide the governmental regulatory bodies with data to develop an approach that contemplate the human exposure and, particularly, children, to multiple mycotoxins in food. The last issue is particularly important considering the potential synergistic effects that could occur between mycotoxins and its potential impact on human and, mainly, children health.

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Recent years observed massive growth in wearable technology, everything can be smart: phones, watches, glasses, shirts, etc. These technologies are prevalent in various fields: from wellness/sports/fitness to the healthcare domain. The spread of this phenomenon led the World-Health-Organization to define the term 'mHealth' as "medical and public health practice supported by mobile devices, such as mobile phones, patient monitoring devices, personal digital assistants, and other wireless devices". Furthermore, mHealth solutions are suitable to perform real-time wearable Biofeedback (BF) systems: sensors in the body area network connected to a processing unit (smartphone) and a feedback device (loudspeaker) to measure human functions and return them to the user as (bio)feedback signal. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this transformation of the healthcare system has been dramatically accelerated by new clinical demands, including the need to prevent hospital surges and to assure continuity of clinical care services, allowing pervasive healthcare. Never as of today, we can say that the integration of mHealth technologies will be the basis of this new era of clinical practice. In this scenario, this PhD thesis's primary goal is to investigate new and innovative mHealth solutions for the Assessment and Rehabilitation of different neuromotor functions and diseases. For the clinical assessment, there is the need to overcome the limitations of subjective clinical scales. Creating new pervasive and self-administrable mHealth solutions, this thesis investigates the possibility of employing innovative systems for objective clinical evaluation. For rehabilitation, we explored the clinical feasibility and effectiveness of mHealth systems. In particular, we developed innovative mHealth solutions with BF capability to allow tailored rehabilitation. The main goal that a mHealth-system should have is improving the person's quality of life, increasing or maintaining his autonomy and independence. To this end, inclusive design principles might be crucial, next to the technical and technological ones, to improve mHealth-systems usability.

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No-tillage mulch-based (NTM) cropping systems have been widely adopted by farmers in the Brazilian savanna region (Cerrado biome). We hypothesized that this new type of management should have a profound impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) at regional scale and consequently on climate change mitigation. The objective of this study was thus to quantify the SOC storage potential of NTM in the oxisols of the Cerrado using a synchronic approach that is based on a chronosequence of fields of different years under NTM. The study consisted of three phases: (1) a farm/cropping system survey to identify the main types of NTM systems to be chosen for the chronosequence; (2) a field survey to identify a homogeneous set of situations for the chronosequence and (3) the characterization of the chronosequence to assess the SOC storage potential. The main NTM system practiced by farmers is an annual succession of soybean (Glycine max)or maize (Zea mays) with another cereal crop. This cropping system covers 54% of the total cultivated area in the region. At the regional level, soil organic C concentrations from NTM fields were closely correlated with clay + silt content of the soil (r(2) = 0.64). No significant correlation was observed (r(2) = 0.07), however, between these two variables when we only considered the fields with a clay + silt content in the 500-700 g kg(-1) range. The final chronosequence of NTM fields was therefore based on a subsample of eight fields, within this textural range. The SOC stocks in the 0-30 cm topsoil layer of these selected fields varied between 4.2 and 6.7 kg C m(-2) and increased on average (r(2) = 0.97) with 0.19 kg C m(-2) year(-1). After 12 years of NTM management, SOC stocks were no longer significantly different from the stocks under natural Cerrado vegetation (p < 0.05), whereas a 23-year-old conventionally tilled and cropped field showed SOC stocks that were about 30% below this level. Confirming our hypotheses, this study clearly illustrated the high potential of NTM systems in increasing SOC storage under tropical conditions, and how a synchronic approach may be used to assess efficiently such modification on farmers` fields, identifying and excluding non desirable sources of heterogeneity (management, soils and climate). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objective: Postural assessment through photography is a simple method that allows the acquisition of quantitative values to define the alignment of body segments. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively assess the postural alignment of several body segments in standing through anterior, posterior, and lateral views. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 122 subjects were initially evaluated. Seven subjects were excluded from the study after cluster analysis. The final sample had 115 subjects, 75% women with a mean age of 26 + 7 years. Photographs were taken from anterior, posterior, and lateral views after placement of markers on specific anatomical points. Photographs were analyzed using free Postural Analysis Software/Software of Postural Analysis (PAS/SAPO). Quantitative values for postural analysis variables were ascertained for head, upper and lower limbs, and trunk, along with the frequency of inclinations to the left and to the right. Results: Regarding the head, 88% of the sample presented some inclination, 67% of which was to the right. There was a predominance of right inclination of the shoulder and pelvis in 68% and 43% of study subjects, respectively. Lower limbs presented mean alignment of 178 in the anterior view, and the trunk showed predominant right inclination in 66% of participants. Conclusion: Small asymmetries were observed in anterior and posterior views. This study suggests that there is no symmetry in postural alignment and that small asymmetries represent the normative standard for posture in standing. (J Manipulative Physiol Ther 2011;34:371-380)

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In the last decades, the air traffic system has been changing to adapt itself to new social demands, mainly the safe growth of worldwide traffic capacity. Those changes are ruled by the Communication, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) paradigm, based on digital communication technologies (mainly satellites) as a way of improving communication, surveillance, navigation and air traffic management services. However, CNS/ATM poses new challenges and needs, mainly related to the safety assessment process. In face of these new challenges, and considering the main characteristics of the CNS/ATM, a methodology is proposed at this work by combining ""absolute"" and ""relative"" safety assessment methods adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in ICAO Doc.9689 [14], using Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets (FSPN) as the modeling formalism, and compares the safety metrics estimated from the simulation of both the proposed (in analysis) and the legacy system models. To demonstrate its usefulness, the proposed methodology was applied to the ""Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcasting"" (ADS-B) based air traffic control system. As conclusions, the proposed methodology assured to assess CNS/ATM system safety properties, in which FSPN formalism provides important modeling capabilities, and discrete event simulation allowing the estimation of the desired safety metric. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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An efficient expert system for the power transformer condition assessment is presented in this paper. Through the application of Duval`s triangle and the method of the gas ratios a first assessment of the transformer condition is obtained in the form of a dissolved gas analysis (DGA) diagnosis according IEC 60599. As a second step, a knowledge mining procedure is performed, by conducting surveys whose results are fed into a first Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (T2-FLS), in order to initially evaluate the condition of the equipment taking only the results of dissolved gas analysis into account. The output of this first T2-FLS is used as the input of a second T2-FLS, which additionally weighs up the condition of the paper-oil system. The output of this last T2-FLS is given in terms of words easily understandable by the maintenance personnel. The proposed assessing methodology has been validated for several cases of transformers in service. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization`s vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In 2002, an integrated basic science course was introduced into the Bachelor of Dental Sciences programme at the University of Queensland, Australia. Learning activities for the Metabolism and Nutrition unit within this integrated course included lectures, problem-based learning tutorials, computer-based self-directed learning exercises and practicals. To support student learning and assist students to develop the skills necessary to become lifelong learners, an extensive bank of formative assessment questions was set up using the commercially available package, WebCT®. Questions included short-answer, multiple-choice and extended matching questions. As significant staff time was involved in setting up the question database, the extent to which students used the formative assessment and their perceptions of its usefulness to their learning were evaluated to determine whether formative assessment should be extended to other units within the course. More than 90% of the class completed formative assessment tasks associated with learning activities scheduled in the first two weeks of the block, but this declined to less than 50% by the fourth and final week of the block. Patterns of usage of the formative assessment were also compared in students who scored in the top 10% for all assessment for the semester with those who scored in the lowest 10%. High-performing students accessed the Web-based formative assessment about twice as often as those who scored in the lowest band. However, marks for the formative assessment tests did not differ significantly between the two groups. In a questionnaire that was administered at the completion of the block, students rated the formative assessment highly, with 80% regarding it as being helpful for their learning. In conclusion, although substantial staff time was required to set up the question database, this appeared to be justified by the positive responses of the students.