Twitter data analysis for financial markets

Over the time, Twitter has become a fundamental source of information for news. As a one step forward, researchers have tried to analyse if the tweets contain predictive power. In the past, in financial field, a lot of research has been done to propose a function which takes as input all the tweets for a particular stock or index s, analyse them and predict the stock or index price of s. In this work, we take an alternative approach: using the stock price and tweet information, we investigate following questions. 1. Is there any relation between the amount of tweets being generated and the stocks being exchanged? 2. Is there any relation between the sentiment of the tweets and stock prices? 3. What is the structure of the graph that describes the relationships between users?

Hydrodynamics and solid dosage form disintegration/dissolution : immediate release tablets and novel in situ polyelectrolyte gastroretentive drug delivery systems

Solid oral dosage form disintegration in the human stomach is a highly complex process dependent on physicochemical properties of the stomach contents as well as on physical variables such as hydrodynamics and mechanical stress. Understanding the role of hydrodynamics and forces in disintegration of oral solid dosage forms can help to improve in vitro disintegration testing and the predictive power of the in vitro test. The aim of this work was to obtain a deep understanding of the influence of changing hydrodynamic conditions on solid oral dosage form performance. Therefore, the hydrodynamic conditions and forces present in the compendial PhEur/USP disintegration test device were characterized using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. Furthermore, a modified device was developed and the hydrodynamic conditions present were simulated using CFD. This modified device was applied in two case studies comprising immediate release (IR) tablets and gastroretentive drug delivery systems (GRDDS). Due to the description of movement provided in the PhEur, the movement velocity of the basket-rack assembly follows a sinusoidal profile. Therefore, hydrodynamic conditions are changing continually throughout the movement cycle. CFD simulations revealed that the dosage form is exposed to a wide range of fluid velocities and shear forces during the test. The hydrodynamic conditions in the compendial device are highly variable and cannot be controlled. A new, modified disintegration test device based on computerized numerical control (CNC) technique was developed. The modified device can be moved in all three dimensions and radial movement is also possible. Simple and complex moving profiles can be developed and the influence of the hydrodynamic conditions on oral solid dosage form performance can be evaluated. Furthermore, a modified basket was designed that allows two-sided fluid flow. CFD simulations of the hydrodynamics and forces in the modified device revealed significant differences in the fluid flow field and forces when compared to the compendial device. Due to the CNC technique moving velocity and direction are arbitrary and hydrodynamics become controllable. The modified disintegration test device was utilized to examine the influence of moving velocity on disintegration times of IR tablets. Insights into the influence of moving speed, medium viscosity and basket design on disintegration times were obtained. An exponential relationship between moving velocity of the modified basket and disintegration times was established in simulated gastric fluid. The same relationship was found between the disintegration times and the CFD predicted average shear stress on the tablet surface. Furthermore, a GRDDS was developed based on the approach of an in situ polyelectrolyte complex (PEC). Different complexes composed of different grades of chitosan and carrageenan and different ratios of those were investigated for their swelling behavior, mechanical stability, and in vitro drug release. With an optimized formulation the influence of changing hydrodynamic conditions on the swelling behavior and the drug release profile was demonstrated using the modified disintegration test device. Both, swelling behavior and drug release, were largely dependent on the hydrodynamic conditions. Concluding, it has been shown within this thesis that the application of the modified disintegration test device allows for detailed insights into the influence of hydrodynamic conditions on solid oral dosage form disintegration and dissolution. By the application of appropriate test conditions, the predictive power of in vitro disintegration testing can be improved using the modified disintegration test device. Furthermore, CFD has proven a powerful tool to examine the hydrodynamics and forces in the compendial as well as in the modified disintegration test device. rn

Risk assessment in the first fifteen minutes: a prospective cohort study of a simple physiological scoring system in the emergency department

Introduction The survival of patients admitted to an emergency department is determined by the severity of acute illness and the quality of care provided. The high number and the wide spectrum of severity of illness of admitted patients make an immediate assessment of all patients unrealistic. The aim of this study is to evaluate a scoring system based on readily available physiological parameters immediately after admission to an emergency department (ED) for the purpose of identification of at-risk patients. Methods This prospective observational cohort study includes 4,388 consecutive adult patients admitted via the ED of a 960-bed tertiary referral hospital over a period of six months. Occurrence of each of seven potential vital sign abnormalities (threat to airway, abnormal respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, low Glasgow Coma Scale and seizures) was collected and added up to generate the vital sign score (VSS). VSSinitial was defined as the VSS in the first 15 minutes after admission, VSSmax as the maximum VSS throughout the stay in ED. Occurrence of single vital sign abnormalities in the first 15 minutes and VSSinitial and VSSmax were evaluated as potential predictors of hospital mortality. Results Logistic regression analysis identified all evaluated single vital sign abnormalities except seizures and abnormal respiratory rate to be independent predictors of hospital mortality. Increasing VSSinitial and VSSmax were significantly correlated to hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) 2.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.50 to 3.14, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial; OR 2.36, 95% CI 2.15 to 2.60, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). The predictive power of VSS was highest if collected in the first 15 minutes after ED admission (log rank Chi-square 468.1, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial;,log rank Chi square 361.5, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). Conclusions Vital sign abnormalities and VSS collected in the first minutes after ED admission can identify patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Prediction and prevention of schizophrenia: what has been achieved and where to go next?

In modern medicine, vigorous efforts are being made in the prediction and prevention of diseases. Mental disorders are suitable candidates for the application of this program. The currently known neurobiological and psychosocial risk indicators for schizophrenia do not have a predictive power sufficient for selective prevention in asymptomatic patients at risk. However, once predictive basic and later pre-psychotic high risk symptoms of psychosis develop into the five-year initial prodrome, the impending outbreak of the disease can be predicted with high accuracy. Research findings suggest a differential strategy of indicated prevention with cognitive behavioral therapy in early initial prodromal states and low dosage atypical antipsychotics in late initial prodromal states. The most important future tasks are the improvement of the predictive power by risk enrichment and stratification, as well as the confirmation of the existing and the development of new prevention strategies, with a stronger focus on the etiology of the disorder. In addition, the prediction and prevention approach would benefit from the inclusion of risk symptoms in the DSM-5 criteria.

A closer look at the high affinity benzodiazepine binding site on GABAA receptors

Ligands of the benzodiazepine binding site of the GABA(A) receptor come in three flavors: positive allosteric modulators, negative allosteric modulators and antagonists all of which can bind with high affinity. The GABA(A) receptor is a pentameric protein which forms a chloride selective ion channel and ligands of the benzodiazepine binding site stabilize three different conformations of this protein. Classical benzodiazepines exert a positive allosteric effect by increasing the apparent affinity of channel opening by the agonist γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). We concentrate here on the major adult isoform, the α(1)β(2)γ(2) GABA(A) receptor. The classical binding pocket for benzodiazepines is located in a subunit cleft between α(1) and γ(2) subunits in a position homologous to the agonist binding site for GABA that is located between β(2) and α(1) subunits. We review here approaches to this picture. In particular, point mutations were performed in combination with subsequent analysis of the expressed mutant proteins using either electrophysiological techniques or radioactive ligand binding assays. The predictive power of these methods is assessed by comparing the results with the predictions that can be made on the basis of the recently published crystal structure of the acetylcholine binding protein that shows homology to the N-terminal, extracellular domain of the GABA(A) receptor. In addition, we review an approach to the question of how the benzodiazepine ligands are positioned in their binding pocket. We also discuss a newly postulated modulatory site for benzodiazepines at the α(1)/β(2) subunit interface, homologous to the classical benzodiazepine binding pocket.

Proteins encoded in genomic regions associated with immune-mediated disease physically interact and suggest underlying biology

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have defined over 150 genomic regions unequivocally containing variation predisposing to immune-mediated disease. Inferring disease biology from these observations, however, hinges on our ability to discover the molecular processes being perturbed by these risk variants. It has previously been observed that different genes harboring causal mutations for the same Mendelian disease often physically interact. We sought to evaluate the degree to which this is true of genes within strongly associated loci in complex disease. Using sets of loci defined in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and Crohn's disease (CD) GWAS, we build protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks for genes within associated loci and find abundant physical interactions between protein products of associated genes. We apply multiple permutation approaches to show that these networks are more densely connected than chance expectation. To confirm biological relevance, we show that the components of the networks tend to be expressed in similar tissues relevant to the phenotypes in question, suggesting the network indicates common underlying processes perturbed by risk loci. Furthermore, we show that the RA and CD networks have predictive power by demonstrating that proteins in these networks, not encoded in the confirmed list of disease associated loci, are significantly enriched for association to the phenotypes in question in extended GWAS analysis. Finally, we test our method in 3 non-immune traits to assess its applicability to complex traits in general. We find that genes in loci associated to height and lipid levels assemble into significantly connected networks but did not detect excess connectivity among Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) loci beyond chance. Taken together, our results constitute evidence that, for many of the complex diseases studied here, common genetic associations implicate regions encoding proteins that physically interact in a preferential manner, in line with observations in Mendelian disease.

Social cognition as a mediator variable between neurocognition and functional outcome in schizophrenia: empirical review and new results by structural equation modeling

Cognitive impairments are currently regarded as important determinants of functional domains and are promising treatment goals in schizophrenia. Nevertheless, the exact nature of the interdependent relationship between neurocognition and social cognition as well as the relative contribution of each of these factors to adequate functioning remains unclear. The purpose of this article is to systematically review the findings and methodology of studies that have investigated social cognition as a mediator variable between neurocognitive performance and functional outcome in schizophrenia. Moreover, we carried out a study to evaluate this mediation hypothesis by the means of structural equation modeling in a large sample of 148 schizophrenia patients. The review comprised 15 studies. All but one study provided evidence for the mediating role of social cognition both in cross-sectional and in longitudinal designs. Other variables like motivation and social competence additionally mediated the relationship between social cognition and functional outcome. The mean effect size of the indirect effect was 0.20. However, social cognitive domains were differentially effective mediators. On average, 25% of the variance in functional outcome could be explained in the mediation model. The results of our own statistical analysis are in line with these conclusions: Social cognition mediated a significant indirect relationship between neurocognition and functional outcome. These results suggest that research should focus on differential mediation pathways. Future studies should also consider the interaction with other prognostic factors, additional mediators, and moderators in order to increase the predictive power and to target those factors relevant for optimizing therapy effects.

Inbreeding and selection on sex ratio in the bark beetle Xylosandrus germanus

Background Local Mate Competition (LMC) theory predicts a female should produce a more female-biased sex ratio if her sons compete with each other for mates. Because it provides quantitative predictions that can be experimentally tested, LMC is a textbook example of the predictive power of evolutionary theory. A limitation of many earlier studies in the field is that the population structure and mating system of the studied species are often estimated only indirectly. Here we use microsatellites to characterize the levels of inbreeding of the bark beetle Xylosandrus germanus, a species where the level of LMC is expected to be high. Results For three populations studied, genetic variation for our genetic markers was very low, indicative of an extremely high level of inbreeding (FIS = 0.88). There was also strong linkage disequilibrium between microsatellite loci and a very strong genetic differentiation between populations. The data suggest that matings among non-siblings are very rare (3%), although sex ratios from X. germanus in both the field and the laboratory have suggested more matings between non-sibs, and so less intense LMC. Conclusions Our results confirm that caution is needed when inferring mating systems from sex ratio data, especially when a lack of biological detail means the use of overly simple forms of the model of interest.

Intra-tumoral budding in preoperative biopsy specimens predicts lymph node and distant metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer

Tumor budding, a histological hallmark of epithelial-mesenchymal transition in colorectal cancer, is a parameter of tumor progression and according to the International Union Against Cancer/American Joint Committee on Cancer an 'additional' prognostic factor. The current definition of tumor budding is reserved for the invasive tumor front of colorectal cancer (so called peri-tumoral budding), but tumor buds can also be observed in small preoperative biopsy specimens. Whereas the prognostic value of peri-tumoral budding assessed in resection specimens has found wide acceptance, the value of budding in preoperative biopsies, which normally do not encompass the invasive tumor margin and hence can be called intra-tumoral budding, has not been systematically investigated yet. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess the predictive value of intra-tumoral budding for lymph node and distant metastasis in preoperative biopsies. Preoperative biopsy samples and consecutive resection specimens from 72 patients with pathological information on TNM stage, vascular, lymphatic and perineural invasion, and tumor border configuration were used to evaluate intra-tumoral budding and peri-tumoral budding. Both parameters were scored semiquantitatively as 'high' (detectable at low power magnification × 2.5) and 'low' (occasional budding at intermediate magnification × 10, difficult to find or absent). In biopsy samples high intra-tumoral budding was observed in 12/72 patients (17%) and associated with high peri-tumoral budding in the corresponding resection specimens (P=0.008). Additionally, there was a correlation between high intra-tumoral budding and lymph node metastasis (P=0.034), distant metastasis (P=0.007) and higher tumor grade (P=0.025). Peri-tumoral budding was associated with higher N stage (P=0.004), vascular (P=0.046) and lymphatic invasion (P=0.019) as well as with an infiltrating tumor border (P<0.001), reflecting the predictive power of peri-tumoral budding for tumor progression. High intra-tumoral budding in preoperative biopsy samples of colorectal cancer patients predicts high peri-tumoral budding at the invasive margin and lymph node metastasis in the corresponding resection specimens as well as distant metastasis.

Isolated vertebral fractures give elevated serum protein S-100B levels

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Serum protein S-100B determinations have been widely proposed in the past as markers of traumatic brain injury and used as a predictor of injury severity and outcome. The purpose of this prospective observational case series was therefore to determine S-100B serum levels in patients with isolated injuries to the back. METHODS: Between 1 February and 1 May 2008, serum samples for S-100B analysis were obtained within 1 hour of injury from 285 trauma patients. All patients with a head injury, polytrauma, and intoxicated patients were excluded to select isolated injuries to the spine. 19 patients with isolated injury of the back were included. Serum samples for S-100B analysis and CT spine were obtained within 1 hours of injury. RESULTS: CT scans showed vertebral fractures in 12 of the 19 patients (63%). All patients with fractures had elevated S-100B levels. Amongst the remaining 7 patients without a fracture, only one patient with a severe spinal contusion had an S-100B concentration above the reference limit. The mean S-100B value of the group with fractures was more than 4 times higher than in the group without fractures (0.385 vs 0.087 mug/L, p = 0.0097). CONCLUSION: Our data, although limited due to a very small sample size, suggest that S-100B serum levels might be useful for the diagnosis of acute vertebral body and spinal cord injury with a high negative predictive power. According to the literature, the highest levels of serum S-100B are found when large bones are fractured. If a large prospective study confirms our findings, determining the S-100B level may contribute to more selective use of CT and MRI in spinal trauma.

Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The model’s potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.

Molecular phylogenetic analyses identify Alpine differentiation and dysploid chromosome number changes as major forces for the evolution of the European endemic Phyteuma (Campanulaceae)

Phyteuma is a chromosomally and ecologically diverse vascular plant genus and constitutes an excellent system for studying both the role of chromosomal change for species diversification and the evolution of high-mountain biota. This kind of research is, however, hampered by the lack of a sound phylogenetic framework exacerbated by the notoriously low predictive power of traditional taxonomy with respect to phylogenetic relationships in Campanulaceae. Based on a comprehensive taxon sampling and analyses of nuclear and plastid sequence and AFLP fingerprint data, Phyteuma is confirmed as a monophyletic group sister to the monotypic Physoplexis, which is in line with their peculiar flower morphologies. Within Phyteuma two clades, largely corresponding to previously recognized sections, are consistently found. The traditional circumscription of taxonomic series is largely rejected. Whereas distinctness of the currently recognized species is mostly corroborated, some interspecific relationships remain ambiguous due to incongruences between nuclear and plastid data. Major forces for diversification and evolution of Phyteuma are descending dysploidy (i.e., a decrease in chromosome base number) as well as allopatric and ecological differentiation within the Alps, the genus' center of species diversity. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Morphology–elasticity relationships using decreasing fabric information of human trabecular bone from three major anatomical locations

With improving clinical CT scanning technology, the accuracy of CT-based finite element (FE) models of the human skeleton may be ameliorated by an enhanced description of apparent level bone mechanical properties. Micro-finite element (μFE) modeling can be used to study the apparent elastic behavior of human cancellous bone. In this study, samples from the femur, radius and vertebral body were investigated to evaluate the predictive power of morphology–elasticity relationships and to compare them across different anatomical regions. μFE models of 701 trabecular bone cubes with a side length of 5.3 mm were analyzed using kinematic boundary conditions. Based on the FE results, four morphology–elasticity models using bone volume fraction as well as full, limited or no fabric information were calibrated for each anatomical region. The 5 parameter Zysset–Curnier model using full fabric information showed excellent predictive power with coefficients of determination ( r2adj ) of 0.98, 0.95 and 0.94 of the femur, radius and vertebra data, respectively, with mean total norm errors between 14 and 20%. A constant orthotropy model and a constant transverse isotropy model, where the elastic anisotropy is defined by the model parameters, yielded coefficients of determination between 0.90 and 0.98 with total norm errors between 16 and 25%. Neglecting fabric information and using an isotropic model led to r2adj between 0.73 and 0.92 with total norm errors between 38 and 49%. A comparison of the model regressions revealed minor but significant (p<0.01) differences for the fabric–elasticity model parameters calibrated for the different anatomical regions. The proposed models and identified parameters can be used in future studies to compute the apparent elastic properties of human cancellous bone for homogenized FE models.

IMPROVING QUANTITATIVE TREATMENT RESPONSE MONITORING WITH DEFORMABLE IMAGE REGISTRATION

Quantitative imaging with 18F-FDG PET/CT has the potential to provide an in vivo assessment of response to radiotherapy (RT). However, comparing tissue tracer uptake in longitudinal studies is often confounded by variations in patient setup and potential treatment induced gross anatomic changes. These variations make true response monitoring for the same anatomic volume a challenge, not only for tumors, but also for normal organs-at-risk (OAR). The central hypothesis of this study is that more accurate image registration will lead to improved quantitation of tissue response to RT with 18F-FDG PET/CT. Employing an in-house developed “demons” based deformable image registration algorithm, pre-RT tumor and parotid gland volumes can be more accurately mapped to serial functional images. To test the hypothesis, specific aim 1 was designed to analyze whether deformably mapping tumor volumes rather than aligning to bony structures leads to superior tumor response assessment. We found that deformable mapping of the most metabolically avid regions improved response prediction (P<0.05). The positive predictive power for residual disease was 63% compared to 50% for contrast enhanced post-RT CT. Specific aim 2 was designed to use parotid gland standardized uptake value (SUV) as an objective imaging biomarker for salivary toxicity. We found that relative change in parotid gland SUV correlated strongly with salivary toxicity as defined by the RTOG/EORTC late effects analytic scale (Spearman’s ρ = -0.96, P<0.01). Finally, the goal of specific aim 3 was to create a phenomenological dose-SUV response model for the human parotid glands. Utilizing only baseline metabolic function and the planned dose distribution, predicting parotid SUV change or salivary toxicity, based upon specific aim 2, became possible. We found that the predicted and observed parotid SUV relative changes were significantly correlated (Spearman’s ρ = 0.94, P<0.01). The application of deformable image registration to quantitative treatment response monitoring with 18F-FDG PET/CT could have a profound impact on patient management. Accurate and early identification of residual disease may allow for more timely intervention, while the ability to quantify and predict toxicity of normal OAR might permit individualized refinement of radiation treatment plan designs.

Temporal lobe white matter asymmetry and language laterality in epilepsy patients.

Recent studies using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) have advanced our knowledge of the organization of white matter subserving language function. It remains unclear, however, how DTI may be used to predict accurately a key feature of language organization: its asymmetric representation in one cerebral hemisphere. In this study of epilepsy patients with unambiguous lateralization on Wada testing (19 left and 4 right lateralized subjects; no bilateral subjects), the predictive value of DTI for classifying the dominant hemisphere for language was assessed relative to the existing standard-the intra-carotid Amytal (Wada) procedure. Our specific hypothesis is that language laterality in both unilateral left- and right-hemisphere language dominant subjects may be predicted by hemispheric asymmetry in the relative density of three white matter pathways terminating in the temporal lobe implicated in different aspects of language function: the arcuate (AF), uncinate (UF), and inferior longitudinal fasciculi (ILF). Laterality indices computed from asymmetry of high anisotropy AF pathways, but not the other pathways, classified the majority (19 of 23) of patients using the Wada results as the standard. A logistic regression model incorporating information from DTI of the AF, fMRI activity in Broca's area, and handedness was able to classify 22 of 23 (95.6%) patients correctly according to their Wada score. We conclude that evaluation of highly anisotropic components of the AF alone has significant predictive power for determining language laterality, and that this markedly asymmetric distribution in the dominant hemisphere may reflect enhanced connectivity between frontal and temporal sites to support fluent language processes. Given the small sample reported in this preliminary study, future research should assess this method on a larger group of patients, including subjects with bi-hemispheric dominance.