O novo federalismo social e o Rio: desenho de programas complementares de transferência de renda condicionada

Brazilian public policy entered in the so-called new social federalism through its conditional cash transfers. States and municipalities can operate together through the nationwide platform of the Bolsa Familia Program (BFP), complementing federal actions with local innovations. The state and the city of Rio de Janeiro have created programs named, respectively, Renda Melhor (RM) and Família Carioca (FC). These programs make use of the operational structure of the BFP, which facilitates locating beneficiaries, issuing cards, synchronizing payment dates and access passwords and introducing new conditionalities. The payment system of the two programs complements the estimated permanent household income up to the poverty line established, giving more to those who have less. Similar income complementation system was subsequently adopted in the BFP and the Chilean Ingreso Ético Familiar, which also follow the principle of estimation of income used in the FC and in the RM. Instead of using the declared income, the value of the Rio cash transfers are set using the extensive collection of information obtained from the Single Registry of Social Programs (Cadastro Único): physical configuration of housing, access to public services, education and work conditions for all family members, presence of vulnerable groups, disabilities, pregnant or lactating women, children and benefits from other official transfers such as the BFP. With this multitude of assets and limitations, the permanent income of each individual is estimated. The basic benefit is defined by the poverty gap and priority is given to the poorest. These subnational programs use international benchmarks as a neutral ground between different government levels and mandates. Their poverty line is the highest of the first millennium goal of the United Nations (UN): US$ 2 per person per day adjusted for the cost of living. The other poverty line of the UN, US$ 1.25, was implicitly adopted as the national extreme poverty line in 2011. The exchange of methodologies between federal entities has happened both ways. The FC began with the 575,000 individuals living in the city of Rio de Janeiro who were on the payroll of the BFP. Its system of impact evaluation benefited from bi-monthly standardized examinations. In the educational conditionalities, the two programs reward students' progress, a potential advantage for those who most need to advance. The municipal program requires greater school attendance than that of the BFP and the presence of students’ parents at the bimonthly meetings held on Saturdays. Students must achieve a grade of 8 or improve at least 20% in each exam to receive a bi-monthly premium of R$50. In early childhood, priority is given to the poor children in the program Single Administrative Register (CadÚnico) to enroll in kindergarten, preschools and complementary activities. The state program reaches more than one million people with a payment system similar to the municipal one. Moreover, it innovates in that it transfers awards given to high school students to savings accounts. The prize increases and is paid to the student, who can withdraw up to 30% annually. The total can reach R$3,800 per low-income student. The State and the city rewarded already education professionals according to student performance, now completing the chain of demand incentives on poor students and their parents. Increased performance is higher among beneficiaries and the presence of their guardians at meetings is twice compared to non beneficiaries; The Houston program, also focuses on aligning the incentives to teachers, parents and students. In general, the plan is to explore strategic complementarities, where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The objective is to stimulate, through targets and incentives, synergies between social actors (teachers, parents, students), between areas (education, assistance, work) and different levels of government. The cited programs sum their efforts and divide labor so as to multiply interactions and make a difference in the lives of the poor.

Determinantes de uso de serviços de saúde: análise multinível da região metropolitana de São Paulo

OBJETIVO: Analisar os determinantes individuais e contextuais do uso de serviços de saúde na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados os dados do estudo São Paulo Megacity, a versão brasileira da pesquisa multicêntrica World Mental Health Survey. Foram analisados 3.588 indivíduos adultos residentes em 69 áreas da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, SP (38 municípios adjacentes e 31 subprefeituras do município de São Paulo), selecionados por meio de amostragem multiestratificada da população não institucionalizada. Foram ajustados modelos multinível logísticos Bayesianos para identificar os determinantes individuais e contextuais do uso de serviços de saúde nos últimos 12 meses e a presença de médico de referência para cuidados de rotina. RESULTADOS: As características contextuais do local de residência (desigualdade de renda, violência e renda mediana) não apresentaram associação significativa (p > 0,05) com o uso de serviços ou com a presença de médico de referência para cuidados de rotina. A única exceção foi a associação negativa entre residir em uma área com alta desigualdade de renda e a presença de médico de referência (OR 0,77; IC95% 0,60;0,99) após controle das características individuais. O estudo apontou uma forte e consistente associação entre algumas características individuais (principalmente escolaridade e presença de plano de saúde) com o uso de serviços de saúde e ter médico de referência. A presença de doenças crônicas e mentais associou-se fortemente com o uso de serviços no último ano (independentemente de características individuais), mas não com a presença de médico de referência. CONCLUSÕES: Características individuais como maior escolaridade e ter plano de saúde foram determinantes importantes do uso de serviços de saúde na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. A melhor compreensão desses determinantes é necessária para o desenvolvimento de políticas públicas que permitam o uso equitativo dos serviços de saúde.

Ensaios em economia política aplicada

Esta tese é constituída por três capítulos que se enquadram na área de Microeconomia Aplicada, sendo dois deles de Economia Política Aplicada e o outro de Economia da Educação. O primeiro capítulo investiga se a eleição de mulheres para a prefeitura impacta a inserção de outras mulheres no mercado político, reduzindo-se assim uma preferência pré-estabelecida pelos eleitores de não votar em mulheres. Para realizar o exercício, utiliza-se um experimento de Regressão em Descontinuidade onde explora-se eleições em que uma mulher perdeu ou ganhou por uma margem pequena de votos para um candidato homem, a ponto do gênero eleito ser aleatório. Os resultados mostram que a eleição de uma mulher tem impacto apenas em ambientes mais propícios a eleger mulheres (o que foi mensurado aqui pelo percentual de vereadoras eleitas) ou em locais onde os candidatos tinham maior qualidade (medido pela escolaridade). O segundo artigo estima o impacto da divulgação da qualidade escolar sobre a migração dos alunos entre escolas. A ideia é que ao tornar-se público o sinal de qualidade, escolas e alunos têm incentivos para se adaptarem conforme sua demanda por qualidade. Para isso, explora-se um desenho de Regressão em Descontinuidade Fuzzy devido a um dos critérios de divulgação do IDEB ser a escola ter no mínimo 20 alunos matriculados na série avaliada. Os resultados mostram que as escolas que tiveram IDEB divulgado tiveram maior migração de alunos e, em especial, de alunos em condições de vulnerabilidade. O terceiro artigo avalia a hipótese de exogeneidade da abertura comercial brasileira, promovida no final da década de 1980 e início da de 1990. Há uma vasta literatura que explora os efeitos da abertura comercial sobre o mercado de trabalho, desigualdade de renda, pobreza e crescimento econômico. Tais trabalhos consideram o processo de liberalização brasileiro como não correlacionado com as demandas de nenhum setor de atividade econômica específico, o que justificaria utilizar o período de abertura como um instrumento para lidar com endogeneidade nas estimações. Nós apresentamos evidência de que, embora não correlacionado com nenhum setor em especial, a abertura estava correlacionada com a distribuição de capital político dos governos nesse período, e pode ter funcionado como uma estratégica clara de fortalecimento político ou, pelo menos, teve o contexto político como um facilitador do processo.

Renda e Pobreza entre Famílias no meio Rural do Nordeste

MARIANO, J. L. ; NEDER, H. D. . Renda e Pobreza entre Famílias no meio Rural do Nordeste. In: CONGRESSO DA SOCIEDADE BRASILEIRA DE ECONOMIA E SOCIOLGOGIA RURAL, 42., 2004, Cuiabá - MT. Anais... Cuiabá, 2004. Dinâmicas Setoriais e Desenvolvimento Regional.

Emprego formal na região nordeste brasileira: seus efeitos na inclusão social

This work aims to study the problem of the formal job in the Brazilian Northeast region and its effect in the social inclusion, taking for base the analysis of variables defined in the Atlas of Social Exclusion, which is based on the 2000 Brazilian Census, choosing the county as unit of analysis. As methodological options, an exploratory data analysis was performed, followed by multivariate statistical techniques, such as weighted multiple regression analysis, cluster analysis and exploratory analysis of spatial data. The results pointed out to low rates of formal job for the active age population as well as low indexes of social inclusion in the Northeast region of Brazil. A strong association of the formal job with the indicators of social inclusion under investigation, was evidenced (schooling, inequality, poverty, youth and income form government transfers), as well as a strong association of the formal job with the new index of social inclusion (IIS), modified from the IES. At the Federative Units, in which better levels of formal job had been found, good indexes of social inclusion are also observed. Highlights for the state of the Rio Grande do Norte, with the best conditions of life, and for the states of the Maranhão and Piauí, with the worst conditions. The situation of the Northeast region, facing the indicators under study, is very precarious, claiming for the necessity of emphasizing programs and governmental actions, specially directed to the raise of formal job levels of the region, reflecting, thus, in improvements on the income inequality, as well as in the social inclusion of the population of Northeastern natives.

A elasticidade da pobreza em relação ao crescimento e à desigualdade de renda no nordeste rural brasileiro de 1995 a 2009: uma análise comparativa

This work aims to analyze how the growth in average income and the change in inequality in income distribution have impacted rural poverty in the Northeast in the period 1995 to 2009. Under the approach in Kakwani (1993) e Duclos and Araar (2006), and under the assumption of log-normality of income per capita, exposed in Bourguignon (2002) and Hoffmann (2005), are calculated growth and inequality elasticities of poverty to FGT poverty measures in order to observe the behavior of the sensitivity of poverty to changes in average household income and the change in income distribution / Gini index. Concurrently, decomposes the changes in measures of poverty (proportion of poor) between growth and distribution components (first proposed by Datt and Ravallion, 1992) to assess the effect of weight change and the effect of income inequality change change on poverty. Regarding the estimation of elasticities of poverty and growth and inequality elasticities of the two methodologies used in this work - under the assumption of lognormal distribution of income and FGT measures under the by Kakwani (1993) andDuclos e Araar (2006) - though do not result in identical values, to corroborate same results, ie the long-term decline in rural poverty from 1995 to 2009 the Northeast and the greater sensitivity of the Northeast Rural Poverty, observed in this same period, income growth and change in inequality. The weight of growth and change in inequality in changing the Northeast rural poverty identified that most of the decline in rural poverty is linked to growth in average income. This result coincides with results found by Kraay (2005) for a group of countries

Avaliação dos impactos do programa bolsa família na renda, na educação e no mercado de trabalho das famílias pobres do Brasil

This study aims to verify the impact of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) in income and school attendance of poor Brazilian families. It is intended to also check the existence of a possible negative effect of the program on the labor market, titled as sloth effect. For such, microdata from the IBGE Census sample in 2010 were used. Seeking to purge possible selection biases, methodology of Quantilic Treatment Effect (QTE) was applied, in particular the estimator proposed by Firpo (2007), which assumes an exogenous and non-conditional treatment. Moreover, Foster- Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index was calculated to check if there are fewer households below the poverty line, as well as if the inequality among the poor decreases. Human Opportunity Index (HOI) was also calculated to measure the access of young people / children education. Results showed that BFP has positively influenced the family per capita income and education (number of children aged 5-17 years old attending school). As for the labor market (worked hours and labor income), the program showed a negative effect. Thus, when compared with not benefiting families, those families who receive the BFP have: a) a higher family income (due to the shock of the transfer budget money) b) more children attending school (due to the conditionality imposed by the program); c) less worked hours (due to sloth effect in certain family groups) and d) a lower income from work. All these effects were potentiated separating the sample in the five Brazilian regions, being observed that the BFP strongly influenced the Northeast, showing a greater decrease in income inequality and poverty, and at the same time, achieved a greater negative impact on the labor market

Diferenciais de rendimentos por gênero: uma análise dos efeitos composição e estrutura salarial no Brasil (1976, 1987, 1996 e 2009)

This study aims to analyze the income differentials by gender in Brazil, in the years 1976, 1987, 1996 and 2009. Specifically, there are two objectives. First, attempt to analyze the importance of the effects of composition and wage structure in the job market. In the second, to verify which socioeconomic variables explain the effects of composition and wage structure in the job market. The information in this study was obtained from the microdata of Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) regarding the respective years. In the first stage of the methodology we used: the index of income distribution Theil-T; the income gap decompositions proposed by Oaxaca (1973) and Blinder (1973); and Firpo et al. (2007). In the second stage we applied the RIF regression method (Recentered Influence Function) of Firpo et al. (2007). The results show that income inequality is higher among men than among women in the country. It was observed that the component of inequality between people of the same gender represented the largest share in the decomposition of income inequality between genders. It was found, in the decomposition of the average income, a downward trend of income gap, but the differential remains favorable to the men. We noticed that the impact of the composition effect in reducing the gap was offset by the positive effect of wage structure. Regarding the distribution quantis, income differential between genres appeared greater at the bottom, in the years 1976, 1987 and 2009; and at the top of the distribution, in 1996 featuring, respectively, the sticky floor and glass ceiling effects in Brazil. As for the decomposition of the RIF, it turns out that the composition effect assisted in the downfall of the income gap between 1976 and 2009, but was offset by the positive effect of the wage structure in quantis 10th, 50th, and 90th. The main socioeconomic variables influenced the drop in income gap were: the composition effect, the manual labor occupations, service sector and low-grade and high school, and the wage structure effect, schooling low and high experience professional and technical occupations and urban centers

Delays in stabilization or in reforms? The debt crisis

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s' debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long-run approach. Revising this long-run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade-policy reforms, with a model in which terms-of-trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.

Migração e seletividade na região nordeste: um estudo a partir dos dados do censo demográfico de 2010

The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of migration on the income differential between northeastern migrants and nonmigrants and there by verify that the immigrants make up a group or not positively selected. The assumption that will be tested is that the presence of these immigrants affects income inequality in the region receptor, which may explain part of the high-stopping inequality in the Brazilian Northeast. The study is based on the literature selectivity migration introduced by Roy (1951), Borjas (1987) and Chiswick (1999). Does the estimated wage equation Mincer (1974) through the method of OLS, using information from the microdata sample of the 2010 Census, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The results which correspond to the comparison of socioeconomic profile, showed that immigrants are more qualified and, on average, better paid than non-migrants. With the estimation of the model, it was found that, keeping all other variables constant, the income that immigrants earn is 14.43% higher than that of non-migrants. Thus, there was existence of positive selectivity in migration directed to the Northeast

Social Panorama of Latin America 2005

Includes bibliography

Globalization and development

Includes bibliography

Macroeconomic success and social vulnerability: lessons for Latin America from the Celtic Tiger

Includes bibliography

Sustainable development of human settlements: achievements and challenges in housing and urban policy in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

A poverty profile and functional aspects of Brazilian labour markets

Includes bibliography