Cost effectiveness of mitigation measures for water security and water quality in the River Thames catchment: impacts of changing climate, land use and water scarcity

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

High night temperature induces contrasting responses for spikelet fertility, spikelet tissue temperature, flowering characteristics and grain quality in rice

Climate change is increasing night temperature (NT) more than day temperature (DT) in rice-growing areas. Effects of combinations of NT (24-35°C) from microsporogenesis to anthesis at one or more DT (30 or 35°C) at anthesis on rice spikelet fertility, temperature within spikelets, flowering pattern, grain weight per panicle, amylose content and gel consistency were investigated in contrasting rice cultivars under controlled environments. Cultivars differed in spikelet fertility response to high NT, with higher fertility associated with cooler spikelets (P < 0.01). Flowering dynamics were altered by high NT and a novel high temperature tolerance complementary mechanism, shorter flower open duration in cv. N22, was identified. High NT reduced spikelet fertility, grain weight per panicle, amylose content and gel consistency, whereas high DT reduced only gel consistency. Night temperature >27°C was estimated to reduce grain weight. Generally, high NT was more damaging to grain weight and selected grain quality traits than high DT, with little or no interaction between them. The critical tolerance and escape traits identified, i.e. spikelet cooling, relatively high spikelet fertility, earlier start and peak time of anthesis and shorter spikelet anthesis duration can aid plant breeding programs targeting resilience in warmer climates.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Transit times – the link between hydrology and water quality at the catchment scale

In spite of trying to understand processes in the same spatial domain, the catchment hydrology and water quality scientific communities are relatively disconnected and so are their respective models. This is emphasized by an inadequate representation of transport processes, in both catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. While many hydrological models at the catchment scale only account for pressure propagation and not for mass transfer, catchment scale water quality models are typically limited by overly simplistic representations of flow processes. With the objective of raising awareness for this issue and outlining potential ways forward we provide a non-technical overview of (1) the importance of hydrology-controlled transport through catchment systems as the link between hydrology and water quality; (2) the limitations of current generation catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models; (3) the concept of transit times as tools to quantify transport and (4) the benefits of transit time based formulations of solute transport for catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. There is emerging evidence that an explicit formulation of transport processes, based on the concept of transit times has the potential to improve the understanding of the integrated system dynamics of catchments and to provide a stronger link between catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models.

Impacts of climate changes on crop physiology and food quality

Carbon emissions related to human activities have been significantly contributing to the elevation of atmospheric [CO(2)] and temperature. More recently, carbon emissions have greatly accelerated, thus much stronger effects on crops are expected. Here, we revise literature data concerning the physiological effects of CO(2) enrichment and temperature rise on crop species. We discuss the main advantages and limitations of the most used CO(2)-enrichment technologies, the Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) and the Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE). Within the conditions expected for the next few years, the physiological responses of crops suggest that they will grow faster, with slight changes in development, such as flowering and fruiting, depending on the species. There is growing evidence suggesting that C(3) crops are likely to produce more harvestable products and that both C(3) and C(4) crops are likely to use less water with rising atmospheric [CO(2)] in the absence of stressful conditions. However, the beneficial direct impact of elevated [CO(2)] on crop yield can be offset by other effects of climate change, such as elevated temperatures and altered patterns of precipitation. Changes in food quality in a warmer, high-CO(2) world are to be expected, e.g., decreased protein and mineral nutrient concentrations, as well as altered lipid composition. We point out that studies related to changes in crop yield and food quality as a consequence of global climatic changes should be priority areas for further studies, particularly because they will be increasingly associated with food security. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Module property verification : A method to plan and perform quality verifications in modular architectures

Modular product architectures have generated numerous benefits for companies in terms of cost, lead-time and quality. The defined interfaces and the module’s properties decrease the effort to develop new product variants, and provide an opportunity to perform parallel tasks in design, manufacturing and assembly. The background of this thesis is that companies perform verifications (tests, inspections and controls) of products late, when most of the parts have been assembled. This extends the lead-time to delivery and ruins benefits from a modular product architecture; specifically when the verifications are extensive and the frequency of detected defects is high. Due to the number of product variants obtained from the modular product architecture, verifications must handle a wide range of equipment, instructions and goal values to ensure that high quality products can be delivered. As a result, the total benefits from a modular product architecture are difficult to achieve. This thesis describes a method for planning and performing verifications within a modular product architecture. The method supports companies by utilizing the defined modules for verifications already at module level, so called MPV (Module Property Verification). With MPV, defects are detected at an earlier point, compared to verification of a complete product, and the number of verifications is decreased. The MPV method is built up of three phases. In Phase A, candidate modules are evaluated on the basis of costs and lead-time of the verifications and the repair of defects. An MPV-index is obtained which quantifies the module and indicates if the module should be verified at product level or by MPV. In Phase B, the interface interaction between the modules is evaluated, as well as the distribution of properties among the modules. The purpose is to evaluate the extent to which supplementary verifications at product level is needed. Phase C supports a selection of the final verification strategy. The cost and lead-time for the supplementary verifications are considered together with the results from Phase A and B. The MPV method is based on a set of qualitative and quantitative measures and tools which provide an overview and support the achievement of cost and time efficient company specific verifications. A practical application in industry shows how the MPV method can be used, and the subsequent benefits

Building registration: training and housing quality

The lack of attention to quality control by house builders has been a contentious issue for more than three decades. In an attempt to improve the quality of housing, various mechanisms have been adopted and discarded by industry-based organizations and government legislation. Now that registration of builders has been achieved (since 1995) the regulating authority, the Building Commission have placed the maintenance of standards from registered builders at the forefront of their priorities. The provision of suitable training and continuing professional development programs is likely to receive greater attention over the next few years. However, a key factor that is often overlooked in the debate on quality of house construction is the use of subcontract labour by both, registered builders and owner builders. The repetitive nature of some activities ensures that tacit knowledge within the subcontract system becomes an integral part of house construction. Research by the authors into defects in housing has provided some interesting analyses from the statistic collected. This paper analyses the incidence of defects over a number of years in a range of functional elements within the house envelope and presents the results. Particular attention is paid to the incidence of defects where the licensed trades are involved compared to the non-licensed trades and elements. This work suggests where housing defects are likely to occur and the authors suggest that appropriate educational resources may be directed to areas where it will be most effective and beneficial. The authors propose a more integrated and inclusive approach.

Creating and sustaining quality e-learning environments of enduring value for teachers and learners

Australian universities continue staking a claim on the future of e-learning, acquiring Learning Management Systems (LMS) as rapidly as universities overseas. Much is published on processes and criteria for selecting the best LMS for an organisation's needs and attempts to establish training and support mechanisms for deploying these systems. Beyond initial efforts to commission these technologies, particularly in the hands of teachers and students, what should happen to ensure these commitments yield real educational value in the long term? The search for and realisation of systemic and substantial new value requires a more profound reconceptualisation of what it means to design and work within contemporary learning environments, incorporating e-learning, in support of excellence in educational outcomes. This demands the foregrounding of the role of the academic teacher in the system in relation to other parties who can make important educational contributions in support of student learning. Central to new strategies is a transformation of the role of academic teacher, but on terms understood by them and supportive of their educational values. Six areas of value creation for teachers and learners are considered in relation to this transformation.

Distribution of an alien aquatic snail in relation to flow variability, human activities and water quality

1. Disturbance and anthropogenic land use changes are usually considered to be key factors facilitating biological invasions. However, specific comparisons of invasion success between sites affected to different degrees by these factors are rare.

2. In this study we related the large-scale distribution of the invading New Zealand mud snail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) in southern Victorian streams, Australia, to anthropogenic land use, flow variability, water quality and distance from the site to the sea along the stream channel.

3. The presence of P. antipodarum was positively related to an index of flow-driven disturbance, the coefficient of variability of mean daily flows for the year prior to the study.

4. Furthermore, we found that the invader was more likely to occur at sites with multiple land uses in the catchment, in the forms of grazing, forestry and anthropogenic developments (e.g. towns and dams), compared with sites with low-impact activities in the catchment. However, this relationship was confounded by a higher likelihood of finding this snail in lowland sites close to the sea.

5. We conclude that P. antipodarum could potentially be found worldwide at sites with similar ecological characteristics. We hypothesise that its success as an invader may be related to an ability to quickly re-colonise denuded areas and that population abundances may respond to increased food resources. Disturbances could facilitate this invader by creating spaces for colonisation (e.g. a possible consequence of floods) or changing resource levels (e.g. increased nutrient levels in streams with intense human land use in their catchments).

Effect of storage on the biochemical and processing quality of Adzuki Bean (Vigna angularis)

Storage of adzuki beans and other pulse grains causes biochemical and physical changes that affect the hydration properties of the beans. This affects the quality of products made from the beans such as the Japanese bean paste “ann.” Storage, particularly under unfavourable conditions, leads to the “hard shell” phenomenon, where beans fail to imbibe water when soaked and remain hard, and the “hard-to-cook” phenomenon where the seeds hydrate normally, but the cotyledon fails to hydrate and soften during cooking. The hard shell phenomenon is attributable to impermeability of the seed coat to water, which is due to biochemical changes in the seed coat, such as the formation of protein-tannin complexes, and biophysical changes such as reduction in size or closure of the straphiole aperture in the hilum area—the main area for water entry into the adzuki bean. The hard-to-cook phenomenon is due to changes in the cotyledon tissue, which include formation of insoluble pectinates, lignification of the cell wall and middle lamella, interaction of condensed tannins with proteins and starch, and changes to the structure and functionality of the cellular proteins and starch.

Suppression of bovine viral diarrhea virus replication by small interfering RNA and short hairpin RNA-mediated RNA interference

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is a ubiquitous viral pathogen that affects cattle herds’ worldwide causing significant economic loss. The current strategies to control BVDV infection include vaccination (modified-live or killed) and control of virus spread by enhanced biosecurity management, however, the disease remains prevalent. With the discovery of the sequence-specific method of gene silencing known as RNA interference (RNAi), a new era in antiviral therapies has begun. Here we report the efficient inhibition of BVDV replication by small interfering (siRNA) and short hairpin RNA (shRNA)-mediated gene silencing. siRNAs were generated to target the 5′ non-translated (NTR) region and the regions encoding the C, NS4B and NS5A proteins of the BVDV genome. The siRNAs were first validated using an EGFP/BVDV reporter system and were then shown to suppress BVDV-induced cytopathic effects and viral titers in cell culture with surprisingly different activities compared to the reporter system. Efficient viral suppression was then achieved by bovine 7SK-expressed BVDV-specific shRNAs. Overall, our results demonstrated the use of siRNA and shRNA-mediated gene silencing to achieve efficient inhibition of the  replication of this virus in cell culture.

Incumbency Reconsidered: Prospects, Strategic Entry, and Incumbent Quality in U.S. House Elections

Efforts to estimate the magnitude of the incumbency effect in U.S. House elections and assess its political meaning have been complicated by two omitted-variables problems. First, in the absence of an adequate measure of incumbent prospects, estimates of the magnitude of the incumbency effect fail to control for selection effects associated with the decision incumbents make about whether to run for reelection. Strategic incumbents enter races they think they can win and withdraw when they expect to lose. The consequence is an upward bias in estimates of incumbents’ electoral advantages. Second, the normative implications of high reelection rates cannot be assessed without measuring incumbent quality, since a possible explanation for their electoral success is that incumbents are of high quality and doing a good job. We propose a strategy for measuring incumbent prospects and quality, demonstrate the strategic nature of incumbent and challenger entry, re-estimate the incumbency effect, and show that incumbent quality has an impact on electoral outcomes. Our conclusion is that incumbents’ advantages in House elections have been over estimated while the positive basis of incumbent safety is typically under appreciated.

Effect of diets containing n-3 fatty acids on muscle long-chain n-3 fatty acid content in lambs fed low- and medium-quality roughage diets

In two experiments, each with 32 crossbred ([Merino x Border Leicester] x Poll Dorset) wether lambs (26 to 33 kg weight range), animals were randomly assigned to one of four treatments. A mixture of lucerne chaff:oaten chaff was used as a basal diet, offered in different ratios. Animals were allowed to consume on a free-access basis in Exp. 1 or 90% of ad libitum intake in Exp. 2 in order to provide a low- (6.5 MJ ME/d) and medium- (9.5 MJ ME/d) quality basal diet, respectively. Isoenergetic amounts of lipid supplements, fish meal (80 g DM), canola meal (84 g DM), and soy meal (75 g DM) were tested in Exp. 1. In Exp. 2, fish meal (9% DM), unprotected rapeseed (7% DM), and protected canola seed (6% DM) were fed as supplements. At the end of 53-d (Exp. 1) or 46-d (Exp. 2) experimental periods, lambs were slaughtered at a commercial abattoir and at 24 h postmortem longissimus thoracis (LT) muscle was collected for the analysis of fatty acid (FA) composition of structural phospholipid and storage triglyceride fractions. Fish meal diet increased LT muscle long-chain n-3 FA content by 27% (P < 0.02) in Exp. I and 30% (P < 0.001) in Exp. 2 compared with lambs fed the basal diet, but fish meal decreased (P < 0.01) the n-6 FA content only in Exp. 1. Soy meal and protected canola seed diets increased (P < 0.01) LT muscle n-6 FA content but did not affect long-chain n-3 FA content. Longissimus thoracis muscle long-chain n-3 FA were mainly deposited in structural phospholipid, rather than in storage triglyceride. In both Exp. 1 and Exp. 2, the ratio of n-6:n-3 FA in LT muscle was lowest (P < 0.01) in lambs fed fish meal supplement compared with all other treatments. Protected canola seed diet increased the ratio of n-6:n-3 FA (P < 0.01) and PUFA:saturated fatty acid (P < 0.03) content from those animals fed the basal, fish meal, and unprotected rapeseed diets in Exp. 2. This was due to an increase in muscle n-6 FA content, mainly linoleic acid, of both phospholipid (P < 0.001) and triglyceride (P < 0.01) fractions and not to an increase in muscle n3 FA content. The results indicate that by feeding fish meal supplement, the essential n-3 FA can be increased while lowering the ratio of n-6:n-3 content in lamb meat to an extent that could affect nutritional value, attractiveness, and the economic value of meat.

Growth and product quality of European eel (Anguilla anguilla) as affected by dietary protein and lipid sources

A 12-week feeding trial was undertaken to evaluate the effects of partial replacement of marine raw materials in the diet with soybean meal and beef tallow on growth and product quality of European eel (Anguilla anguilla ). Based on growth, feed efficiency and chemical composition, soybean meal was found to be an unsuitable ingredient for eel diets as a substitute for fishmeal (25% on a protein basis), probably because of the low digestibility of its carbohydrate content. However, beef tallow can be used to replace 50% of fish oil without reduction in growth, provided that digestible carbohydrates are present in the diet. No major effects of protein and lipid sources in the diet were found on fillet chemical composition. Sensory analysis revealed no significant differences between fish fed the control and the experimental diets, with the exception of salty taste which was significantly higher in fish fed combined soybean meal and beef tallow compared with fish fed the control diet.