Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Trade-off between formal and informal care in Spain

The remarkable growth of older population has moved long term care to the front ranks of the social policy agenda. Understanding the factors that determine the type and amount of formal care is important for predicting use in the future and developing long-term policy. In this context we jointly analyze the choice of care (formal, informal, both together or none) as well as the number of hours of care received. Given that the number of hours of care is not independent of the type of care received, we estimate, for the first time in this area of research, a sample selection model with the particularity that the first step is a multinomial logit model. With regard to the debate about complementarity or substitutability between formal and informal care, our results indicate that formal care acts as a reinforcement of the family care in certain cases: for very old care receivers, in those cases in which the individual has multiple disabilities, when many care hours are provided, and in case of mental illness and/or dementia. There exist substantial differences in long term care addressed to younger and older dependent people and dependent women are in risk of becoming more vulnerable to the shortage of informal caregivers in the future. Finally, we have documented that there are great disparities in the availability of public social care across regions.

The determinants of the prevalence of single mothers: A cross-country analysis

This paper examines the effect of public assistance, labor market and marriage marketconditions on the prevalence of single mother families across countries and over time. Amultinomial logit derived from a random utility approach is estimated using individualleveldata for 14 countries. I find evidence that increases in the level of public support are significantly and positively associated with a higher incidence of both never marriedand divorced mothers. The results also suggest that single mothers are more prevalentwhen female wages are lower. Higher male earnings and employment opportunities in awoman s marriage market appear to lead to fewer never married mothers, but more divorced mothers. Higher child support or alimony payments are associated with a higher prevalence of divorced mothers.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the gulf region.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.

Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

The handaxe and the microscope: individual and social learning in a multidimensional model of adaptation

When individuals learn by trial-and-error, they perform randomly chosen actions and then reinforce those actions that led to a high payoff. However, individuals do not always have to physically perform an action in order to evaluate its consequences. Rather, they may be able to mentally simulate actions and their consequences without actually performing them. Such fictitious learners can select actions with high payoffs without making long chains of trial-and-error learning. Here, we analyze the evolution of an n-dimensional cultural trait (or artifact) by learning, in a payoff landscape with a single optimum. We derive the stochastic learning dynamics of the distance to the optimum in trait space when choice between alternative artifacts follows the standard logit choice rule. We show that for both trial-and-error and fictitious learners, the learning dynamics stabilize at an approximate distance of root n/(2 lambda(e)) away from the optimum, where lambda(e) is an effective learning performance parameter depending on the learning rule under scrutiny. Individual learners are thus unlikely to reach the optimum when traits are complex (n large), and so face a barrier to further improvement of the artifact. We show, however, that this barrier can be significantly reduced in a large population of learners performing payoff-biased social learning, in which case lambda(e) becomes proportional to population size. Overall, our results illustrate the effects of errors in learning, levels of cognition, and population size for the evolution of complex cultural traits. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do political factors matter in explaining under- and overweight outcomes in developing countries?

We construct a rich dataset covering 47 developing countries over the years 1990-2007, combining several micro and macro level data sources to explore the link between political factors and body mass index (BMI). We implement a heteroskedastic generalized ordered logit model allowing for different covariate effects across the BMI distribution and accounting for the unequal BMI dispersion by geographical area. We find that systems with democratic qualities are more likely to reduce under-weight, but increase overweight/obesity, whereas effective political competition does entail double-benefits in the form of reducing both under-weight and obesity. Our results are robust to the introduction of country fixed effects.

Suomi tiellä sivistyskieleksi. Suomenkielisen maantieteen sanaston kehittyminen ja kehittäminen 1800-luvulla

Tutkimukseni käsittelee suomen kielen sanaston kehitystä 1800-luvulla eli aikana, jolloin suomen kielestä kehittyi monialainen sivistyskieli. Esimerkkiaineistona on yhden erikoisalan, maantieteen sanasto. Suomen kirjakieli syntyi 1500-luvulla, mutta aluksi kirjoitettua kieltä tarvittiin pääasiassa uskonnollisissa yhteyksissä. 1800-luvun aikana kielen käyttöalat monipuolistuivat ja uutta sanastoa tarvittiin monien erikoisalojen tarpeisiin. Ryhdyttiin tietoisesti kääntämään tietokirjallisuutta ja kirjoittamaan eri aiheista. Tutkimukseni selvittää maantieteen sanaston kehittymistä sadassa vuodessa erityisesti maantieteen oppikirjoissa. Tutkimus kuvaa sanaston kehitystä teoreettisesti uudenlaisista lähtökohdista tarkastelemalla leksikaalista variaatiota. Variaatiota on kuvattu tarkasti sekä yksittäisten käsitteiden nimitysten kehityksenä että ilmiönä yleisesti. Tutkimus hyödyntää myös kognitiivista lähestymistapaa, etenkin sosiokognitiivisen terminologian teoriaa. Aineiston analyysin pohjalta syntyy kuva sanaston kehityksestä ja vakiintumisesta. Tutkimus kuvaa myös tapoja, joilla uusia käsitteitä nimettiin. Se pohtii eri nimeämistapojen suhdetta sekä kirjoittajien ja aikalaisten roolia sanaston vakiintumisessa. 1800-luvun maantieteen sanastossa on runsaasti variaatiota; vain harvojen käsitteiden nimitykset ovat vakiintuneita tai vakiintuvat nopeasti. Tämän variaation kuvaaminen leksikaalisena variaationa osoittautui tutkimuksessa hyväksi metodiksi. Koska kirjakieli oli vakiintumatonta, nimityksissä esiintyy paljon kontekstuaalista variaatiota esimerkiksi sanojen kirjoitusasuissa. Kirjoittajat myös pohtivat havainnollista tapaa nimetä käsitteitä, ja tästä aiheutuu onomasiologista variaatiota. Semasiologinen variaatio taas kertoo käsitejärjestelmän vakiintumattomuudesta. Aineiston sanaston lähtökohdat ovat vanhan kirjasuomessa, mutta tältä pohjalta luodaan valtava määrä uutta sanastoa tai otetaan aiemmin kirjakielessä käytettyjä nimityksiä uuteen merkitykseen. Tärkeä rooli on sekä nimitysten muodostamisella kotoisista aineksista että kääntämisellä, jossa malli saadaan toisesta kielestä mutta nimitysten ainekset ovat omaperäisiä.

Multi-site -sertifikaatin vaatimukset ympäristöjohtamisjärjestelmän rakentamisessa

Diplomityö muodostuu kahdesta kokonaisuudesta. Työn teoriaosa kertoo mitä ympäristöjohtaminen on, millaisia ovat multi-site -organisaatio ja multi-site -johtamisjärjestelmä sekä mitä vaatimuksia nämä asettavat yritykselle. Työssä esitetään malli, jota käyttämällä kansainvälisten johtamisjärjestelmästandardien mukaan rakennetut laatu-, ympäristö-, terveys- ja turvallisuusjärjestelmät voidaan yhdistää yhdeksi kokonaisuudeksi, multi-site - johtamisjärjestelmäksi. Malli rakentuu kolmesta tasosta, joita ovat paikallinen, maakohtainen ja konsernitaso. Esimerkkien avulla kerrotaan miteneri lähtökohdista voidaan näiden tasojen kautta edetä kohti yhtä johtamiskokonaisuutta. Esille tuodaan myös multi-site -johtamisjärjestelmän käyttöönottoa puoltavat ja vastustavat näkökohdat. Työn konkreettinen osa on johtamisjärjestelmämallin paikallisen tason toteuttaminen. Ympäristöjohtamisjärjestelmän rakentaminen standardin EN ISO 14001:2004 vaatimusten mukaiseksi Kvaerner Power Oy:n Suomen toimipaikoille sekä tämän järjestelmän yhdistäminen sertifioituun EN ISO 9001 -standardin mukaiseen laatujärjestelmään. Työssä kerrotaan miten ympäristöjohtamisjärjestelmä on rakennettu ja miten laatu- ja ympäristöjärjestelmät on liitetty yhdeksi kokonaisuudeksi. Työn tuloksena syntyi malli johtamisjärjestelmien yhdistämisestä sekä sertifioitu ympäristöjohtamisjärjestelmä, jonka yhdistäminen laatujärjestelmään toteutettiin tavoitteiden mukaisesti.

Tietojärjestelmäinvestoinnin jälkitarkkailumalli

Tämän työn ensisijaisena tavoitteena oli kehittää tietojärjestelmähankkeiden investointiprosessia luomalla kohdeyritykseen yhtenäinen toimintatapa hankkeiden jälkitarkkailuun. Tavoiteltu muutos koskee järjestelmäinvestointien arviointiperusteita sekä niiden käyttöönoton jälkeistä seurantaa. Jälkitarkkailumalli on rakennettu tasapainotettujen mittaristojen viitekehyksestä mittaamalla onnistumista johdon, loppukäyttäjän sekä projektin näkökulmasta. Työn tuloksena on Excel -sovellus sekä toimintatapa sovelluksen käytölle. Esimerkki-investoinnista kerätyn kokemuksen perusteella malli tukee investointiin liittyvien sidosryhmien sitoutumista yhteisiin tavoitteisiin sekä selkeyttää roolijakoa IT - vetoisen projektiryhmän ja yrityksen liiketoiminnallisen johdon välillä. Lisäksi mallin koettiin tukevan käyttöönotetun järjestelmän tavoitelähtöistä johtamista. Käytön laajentuessa mallilla uskotaan olevan yksittäistenhankkeiden lisäksi positiivinen vaikutus myös yrityksen tietojärjestelmähankkeiden investointiprosessiin.

Innovaation alkupään johtaminen

Työn tavoitteena oli selventää innovaatioketjun alkupään liittyviä keskeisiä käsitteitä, menetelmiä ja toimintamalleja sekä laatia innovaation alkupään ja kyvykkyyden arviointi- ja johtamismallit. Innovaatio on määritelmänsä mukaisesti uusi keksintö, joka on sovellettu käytäntöön ja se luo yritykselle lisäarvoa. Innovaatio on uusi malli, käytäntö tai konsepti, joka muuttaa vallitsevia käytäntöjä siten, että teknologinen ja taloudellinen suorituskyky paranee. Keskeinen kysymys on kirkastaa sumea etupää (Fuzzy Front End) uusiksi liiketoiminta-mahdollisuuksiksi. Innovaation tietolähteet: hiljaiset signaalit, trendit, kilpailija- ja asiakastieto, nousevat uudet teknologiat, tuotepalaute sekä tutkimus-, patentti- ja lisensiointi-informaatio, tarjoavat yrityksille mahdollisuuksia mm. tuote-, prosessi-, palvelu- ja liiketoimintainnovaatioksi. Tulevaisuuden näkeminen alkaa tietämisestä miten hallitsemme signaaleita, jotka ovat olemassa tänään, mutta niitä ei ole tunnistettu. Taitavissa innovaatioyrityksissä tulevaisuuden etsiminen on avainprioriteetti. Mullistavia uusia teknologioita otetaan käyttöön kaikilla teollisuuden aloilla. Näitä mahdollisuuksia on jatkuvasti ja systemaattisesti monitoroitava ja hyödynnettävä. Innovaatiot ja luovuus liittyvät läheisesti toisiinsa. Yrityksen innovatiivisuuden kehittämiseen liittyy sekä organisaatio- että yksilötason jatkuvaa kehittämistä. Yksilöt ovat organisaatiossa ideoiden lähde, mutta sen kehittäminen innovaatioksi on koko organisaation vastuulla. Innovatiivinen organisaatio on aina myös luova, koska luovuus on innovaation lähde. Luovuuden avulla tuotetaan uusia ja hyödyllisiä ideoita ja toimeenpanokyky sisältää ideoiden kehittämisen ja hyödyntämisen liiketoiminnassa. Innovaatiot edellyttävät myös uutta ajattelua. Rationaalinen ajattelu on jopa innovatiivisuuden este. Ajattelukyvykkyyden kehittäminen johtaa tutkimuksien mukaan tehokkaampaan kommunikointiin ja tuloksekkaampaan tiimityöhön. Innovaatiot syntyvät usein vuorovaikutuksessa poikkiorganisatorisissa tiimeissä Innovaatiot eivät synny sattumalta vaan johtamisen tuloksena. Luovuuden ja kyvykkyyksien johtaminen on innovatiivisen organisaation peruselementtejä. Innovaatiokyvykkyyden osatekijöitä ovat innovaation tietolähteiden hyödyntäminen, toimialan osaaminen, innovaatioita tukevat johtamis- ja tietojärjestelmät, innovaatiokulttuuri, prosessilähtöisyys ja dynaaminen kyvykkyys. Innovaatioiden johtaminenon strategialähtöistä, innovaatioprosessien implementointia, työkalujen ja menetelmien hallintaa sekä innovatiivisuuden kehittämistä.