Estimation of the postmortem interval by means of ¹H MRS of decomposing brain tissue: influence of ambient temperature

Standard methods for the estimation of the postmortem interval (PMI, time since death), based on the cooling of the corpse, are limited to about 48 h after death. As an alternative, noninvasive postmortem observation of alterations of brain metabolites by means of (1)H MRS has been suggested for an estimation of the PMI at room temperature, so far without including the effect of other ambient temperatures. In order to study the temperature effect, localized (1)H MRS was used to follow brain decomposition in a sheep brain model at four different temperatures between 4 and 26°C with repeated measurements up to 2100 h postmortem. The simultaneous determination of 25 different biochemical compounds at each measurement allowed the time courses of concentration changes to be followed. A sudden and almost simultaneous change of the concentrations of seven compounds was observed after a time span that decreased exponentially from 700 h at 4°C to 30 h at 26°C ambient temperature. As this represents, most probably, the onset of highly variable bacterial decomposition, and thus defines the upper limit for a reliable PMI estimation, data were analyzed only up to this start of bacterial decomposition. As 13 compounds showed unequivocal, reproducible concentration changes during this period while eight showed a linear increase with a slope that was unambiguously related to ambient temperature. Therefore, a single analytical function with PMI and temperature as variables can describe the time courses of metabolite concentrations. Using the inverse of this function, metabolite concentrations determined from a single MR spectrum can be used, together with known ambient temperatures, to calculate the PMI of a corpse. It is concluded that the effect of ambient temperature can be reliably included in the PMI determination by (1)H MRS.

Intravaginal practices, bacterial vaginosis, and HIV infection in women: individual participant data meta-analysis

Background Identifying modifiable factors that increase women's vulnerability to HIV is a critical step in developing effective female-initiated prevention interventions. The primary objective of this study was to pool individual participant data from prospective longitudinal studies to investigate the association between intravaginal practices and acquisition of HIV infection among women in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary objectives were to investigate associations between intravaginal practices and disrupted vaginal flora; and between disrupted vaginal flora and HIV acquisition. Methods and Findings We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 13 prospective cohort studies involving 14,874 women, of whom 791 acquired HIV infection during 21,218 woman years of follow-up. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. The level of between-study heterogeneity was low in all analyses (I2 values 0.0%–16.1%). Intravaginal use of cloth or paper (pooled adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.83), insertion of products to dry or tighten the vagina (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.00–1.71), and intravaginal cleaning with soap (aHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.53) remained associated with HIV acquisition after controlling for age, marital status, and number of sex partners in the past 3 months. Intravaginal cleaning with soap was also associated with the development of intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis in women with normal vaginal flora at baseline (pooled adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% CI 1.04–1.47). Use of cloth or paper was not associated with the development of disrupted vaginal flora. Intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis were each associated with HIV acquisition in multivariable models when measured at baseline (aHR 1.54 and 1.69, p<0.001) or at the visit before the estimated date of HIV infection (aHR 1.41 and 1.53, p<0.001), respectively. Conclusions This study provides evidence to suggest that some intravaginal practices increase the risk of HIV acquisition but a direct causal pathway linking intravaginal cleaning with soap, disruption of vaginal flora, and HIV acquisition has not yet been demonstrated. More consistency in the definition and measurement of specific intravaginal practices is warranted so that the effects of specific intravaginal practices and products can be further elucidated.

Does published orthodontic research account for clustering effects during statistical data analysis?

In orthodontics, multiple site observations within patients or multiple observations collected at consecutive time points are often encountered. Clustered designs require larger sample sizes compared to individual randomized trials and special statistical analyses that account for the fact that observations within clusters are correlated. It is the purpose of this study to assess to what degree clustering effects are considered during design and data analysis in the three major orthodontic journals. The contents of the most recent 24 issues of the American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (AJODO), Angle Orthodontist (AO), and European Journal of Orthodontics (EJO) from December 2010 backwards were hand searched. Articles with clustering effects and whether the authors accounted for clustering effects were identified. Additionally, information was collected on: involvement of a statistician, single or multicenter study, number of authors in the publication, geographical area, and statistical significance. From the 1584 articles, after exclusions, 1062 were assessed for clustering effects from which 250 (23.5 per cent) were considered to have clustering effects in the design (kappa = 0.92, 95 per cent CI: 0.67-0.99 for inter rater agreement). From the studies with clustering effects only, 63 (25.20 per cent) had indicated accounting for clustering effects. There was evidence that the studies published in the AO have higher odds of accounting for clustering effects [AO versus AJODO: odds ratio (OR) = 2.17, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 1.06-4.43, P = 0.03; EJO versus AJODO: OR = 1.90, 95 per cent CI: 0.84-4.24, non-significant; and EJO versus AO: OR = 1.15, 95 per cent CI: 0.57-2.33, non-significant). The results of this study indicate that only about a quarter of the studies with clustering effects account for this in statistical data analysis.

Does pet ownership in infancy lead to asthma or allergy at school age? Pooled analysis of individual participant data from 11 European birth cohorts

Objective To examine the associations between pet keeping in early childhood and asthma and allergies in children aged 6–10 years. Design Pooled analysis of individual participant data of 11 prospective European birth cohorts that recruited a total of over 22,000 children in the 1990s. Exposure definition Ownership of only cats, dogs, birds, rodents, or cats/dogs combined during the first 2 years of life. Outcome definition Current asthma (primary outcome), allergic asthma, allergic rhinitis and allergic sensitization during 6–10 years of age. Data synthesis Three-step approach: (i) Common definition of outcome and exposure variables across cohorts; (ii) calculation of adjusted effect estimates for each cohort; (iii) pooling of effect estimates by using random effects meta-analysis models. Results We found no association between furry and feathered pet keeping early in life and asthma in school age. For example, the odds ratio for asthma comparing cat ownership with “no pets” (10 studies, 11489 participants) was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.28) (I2 = 9%; p = 0.36). The odds ratio for asthma comparing dog ownership with “no pets” (9 studies, 11433 participants) was 0.77 (0.58 to 1.03) (I2 = 0%, p = 0.89). Owning both cat(s) and dog(s) compared to “no pets” resulted in an odds ratio of 1.04 (0.59 to 1.84) (I2 = 33%, p = 0.18). Similarly, for allergic asthma and for allergic rhinitis we did not find associations regarding any type of pet ownership early in life. However, we found some evidence for an association between ownership of furry pets during the first 2 years of life and reduced likelihood of becoming sensitized to aero-allergens. Conclusions Pet ownership in early life did not appear to either increase or reduce the risk of asthma or allergic rhinitis symptoms in children aged 6–10. Advice from health care practitioners to avoid or to specifically acquire pets for primary prevention of asthma or allergic rhinitis in children should not be given.

Insights into the timing of repeated testing after treatment for Chlamydia trachomatis: data and modelling study

The objective of this study was to determine the optimal time interval for a repeated Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) test.

Analysis of pedigree and conformation data to explain genetic variability of the horse breed Franches-Montagnes

Franches-Montagnes is the only native horse breed in Switzerland, therefore special efforts should be made for ensuring its survival. The objectives of this study were to characterize the structure of this population as well as genetic variability with pedigree data, conformation traits and molecular markers. Studies were focused to clarify if this population is composed of a heavy- and a light-type subpopulation. Extended pedigree records of 3-year-old stallions (n = 68) and mares (n = 108) were available. Evaluations of body conformation traits as well as pedigree data and molecular markers did not support the two-subpopulation hypothesis. The generation interval ranged from 7.8 to 9.3 years. The complete generation equivalent was high (>12). The number of effective ancestors varied between 18.9 and 20.1, whereof 50% of the genetic variability was attributed to seven of them. Genetic contribution of Warmblood horses ranged from 36% to 42% and that of Coldblood horses from 4% to 6%. The average inbreeding coefficient reached 6%. Inbreeding effective population size was 114.5 when the average increase of the inbreeding coefficient per year since 1910 was taken. Our results suggest that bottleneck situations occurred because of selection of a small number of sire lines. Promotion of planned matings between parents that are less related is recommended in order to avoid a reduction of the genetic diversity.

Generalizations of Current Status Data With Applications

In estimation of a survival function, current status data arises when the only information available on individuals is their survival status at a single monitoring time. Here we briefly review extensions of this form of data structure in two directions: (i) doubly censored current status data, where there is incomplete information on the origin of the failure time random variable, and (ii) current status information on more complicated stochastic processes. Simple examples of these data forms are presented for motivation.

Efficiency of the Sieved-NPMLE in CAR-Missing Data Models

We consider nonparametric missing data models for which the censoring mechanism satisfies coarsening at random and which allow complete observations on the variable X of interest. W show that beyond some empirical process conditions the only essential condition for efficiency of an NPMLE of the distribution of X is that the regions associated with incomplete observations on X contain enough complete observations. This is heuristically explained by describing the EM-algorithm. We provide identifiably of the self-consistency equation and efficiency of the NPMLE in order to make this statement rigorous. The usual kind of differentiability conditions in the proof are avoided by using an identity which holds for the NPMLE of linear parameters in convex models. We provide a bivariate censoring application in which the condition and hence the NPMLE fails, but where other estimators, not based on the NPMLE principle, are highly inefficient. It is shown how to slightly reduce the data so that the conditions hold for the reduced data. The conditions are verified for the univariate censoring, double censored, and Ibragimov-Has'minski models.

Semiparametric Normal Transformation Models for Spatially Correlated Survival Data

There is an emerging interest in modeling spatially correlated survival data in biomedical and epidemiological studies. In this paper, we propose a new class of semiparametric normal transformation models for right censored spatially correlated survival data. This class of models assumes that survival outcomes marginally follow a Cox proportional hazard model with unspecified baseline hazard, and their joint distribution is obtained by transforming survival outcomes to normal random variables, whose joint distribution is assumed to be multivariate normal with a spatial correlation structure. A key feature of the class of semiparametric normal transformation models is that it provides a rich class of spatial survival models where regression coefficients have population average interpretation and the spatial dependence of survival times is conveniently modeled using the transformed variables by flexible normal random fields. We study the relationship of the spatial correlation structure of the transformed normal variables and the dependence measures of the original survival times. Direct nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation in such models is practically prohibited due to the high dimensional intractable integration of the likelihood function and the infinite dimensional nuisance baseline hazard parameter. We hence develop a class of spatial semiparametric estimating equations, which conveniently estimate the population-level regression coefficients and the dependence parameters simultaneously. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators, and show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal. The proposed method is illustrated with an analysis of data from the East Boston Ashma Study and its performance is evaluated using simulations.

Electronic medical record systems, data quality and loss to follow-up: survey of antiretroviral therapy programmes in resource-limited settings

OBJECTIVE: To describe the electronic medical databases used in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in lower-income countries and assess the measures such programmes employ to maintain and improve data quality and reduce the loss of patients to follow-up. METHODS: In 15 countries of Africa, South America and Asia, a survey was conducted from December 2006 to February 2007 on the use of electronic medical record systems in ART programmes. Patients enrolled in the sites at the time of the survey but not seen during the previous 12 months were considered lost to follow-up. The quality of the data was assessed by computing the percentage of missing key variables (age, sex, clinical stage of HIV infection, CD4+ lymphocyte count and year of ART initiation). Associations between site characteristics (such as number of staff members dedicated to data management), measures to reduce loss to follow-up (such as the presence of staff dedicated to tracing patients) and data quality and loss to follow-up were analysed using multivariate logit models. FINDINGS: Twenty-one sites that together provided ART to 50 060 patients were included (median number of patients per site: 1000; interquartile range, IQR: 72-19 320). Eighteen sites (86%) used an electronic database for medical record-keeping; 15 (83%) such sites relied on software intended for personal or small business use. The median percentage of missing data for key variables per site was 10.9% (IQR: 2.0-18.9%) and declined with training in data management (odds ratio, OR: 0.58; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.37-0.90) and weekly hours spent by a clerk on the database per 100 patients on ART (OR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90-0.99). About 10 weekly hours per 100 patients on ART were required to reduce missing data for key variables to below 10%. The median percentage of patients lost to follow-up 1 year after starting ART was 8.5% (IQR: 4.2-19.7%). Strategies to reduce loss to follow-up included outreach teams, community-based organizations and checking death registry data. Implementation of all three strategies substantially reduced losses to follow-up (OR: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.15-0.20). CONCLUSION: The quality of the data collected and the retention of patients in ART treatment programmes are unsatisfactory for many sites involved in the scale-up of ART in resource-limited settings, mainly because of insufficient staff trained to manage data and trace patients lost to follow-up.

Lipodystrophy and weight changes: data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 2000-2006

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is changing, and this may affect the type and occurrence of side effects. We examined the frequency of lipodystrophy (LD) and weight changes in relation to the use of specific drugs in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS: In the SHCS, patients are followed twice a year and scored by the treating physician as having 'fat accumulation', 'fat loss', or neither. Treatments, and reasons for change thereof, are recorded. Our study sample included all patients treated with cART between 2003 and 2006 and, in addition, all patients who started cART between 2000 and 2003. RESULTS: From 2003 to 2006, the percentage of patients taking stavudine, didanosine and nelfinavir decreased, the percentage taking lopinavir, nevirapine and efavirenz remained stable, and the percentage taking atazanavir and tenofovir increased by 18.7 and 22.2%, respectively. In life-table Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients starting cART in 2003-2006 were less likely to develop LD than those starting cART from 2000 to 2002 (P<0.02). LD was quoted as the reason for treatment change or discontinuation for 4% of patients on cART in 2003, and for 1% of patients treated in 2006 (P for trend <0.001). In univariate and multivariate regression analysis, patients with a weight gain of >or=5 kg were more likely to take lopinavir or atazanavir than patients without such a weight gain [odds ratio (OR) 2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-2.9, and OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.1, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: LD has become less frequent in the SHCS from 2000 to 2006. A weight gain of more than 5 kg was associated with the use of atazanavir and lopinavir.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Palaeohydrology, fires and vegetation succession in the southern Baltic during the last 7500 years reconstructed from a raised bog based on multi-proxy data

We present the first 7500 yr long multi-proxy record from a raised bog located at the southern Baltic coast, Poland. Testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, pollen and microscopic charcoal were used to reconstruct environmental changes in Pomerania (northern Poland, Kaszuby Lakeland) from a 7-m thick peat archive of Stążki bog dated 5500 BC–AD 1250. We obtained a record of proxies representing different spatial scales: regional vegetation changed simultaneously with local vegetation, and testate amoebae showed a pattern of change similar to that of pollen and plant macrofossils. On the basis of the combined proxies, we distinguished three hydroclimatic stages: moist conditions 5500–3450 BC, drier conditions with regionally increased fires up to 600 BC, and again moist conditions from 600 BC onward. During the drier interval, a first climatic shift to wetter conditions at 1700 BC is indicated by regional pollen as the replacement of Corylus by Carpinus, and locally by, e.g., the increase of Hyalosphenia elegans and mire plants such as Sphagnum sec. Cuspidata. Furthermore, we observed a correlation since 600 BC among the re-expansion of Carpinus (after a sudden decline ca. 950 BC), increased peat accumulation, increase of Hyalosphenia species, and fewer fires, suggesting lower evapotranspiration and a stable high water table in the bog. Fagus started to expand after AD 810 gradually replacing Carpinus, which was possibly due to a gradually more oceanic climate, though we cannot exclude human impact on the forests. Peat accumulation, determined by radiocarbon dating, varied with bog surface wetness. The hydroclimatic phases found in Stążki peatland are similar to moisture changes recorded in other sites from Poland and Europe. This is the first detailed record of hydroclimatic change during the Holocene in the southern Baltic region, so it forms a reference site for further studies on other southern Baltic bogs that are in progress.

Combining follow-up and change data is valid in meta-analyses of continuous outcomes: a meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE To investigate whether it is valid to combine follow-up and change data when conducting meta-analyses of continuous outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Meta-epidemiological study of randomized controlled trials in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee/hip, which assessed patient-reported pain. We calculated standardized mean differences (SMDs) based on follow-up and change data, and pooled within-trial differences in SMDs. We also derived pooled SMDs indicating the largest treatment effect within a trial (optimistic selection of SMDs) and derived pooled SMDs from the estimate indicating the smallest treatment effect within a trial (pessimistic selection of SMDs). RESULTS A total of 21 meta-analyses with 189 trials with 292 randomized comparisons in 41,256 patients were included. On average, SMDs were 0.04 standard deviation units more beneficial when follow-up values were used (difference in SMDs: -0.04; 95% confidence interval: -0.13, 0.06; P=0.44). In 13 meta-analyses (62%), there was a relevant difference in clinical and/or significance level between optimistic and pessimistic pooled SMDs. CONCLUSION On average, there is no relevant difference between follow-up and change data SMDs, and combining these estimates in meta-analysis is generally valid. Decision on which type of data to use when both follow-up and change data are available should be prespecified in the meta-analysis protocol.

GPS-only gravity field determination from GOCE data

The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) is now in orbit for more than four years. This is longer than the originally planned lifetime of the satellite and after three years on the same altitude the satellite has been lowered to 235 km in several steps. In the frame of the GOCE High-level Processing Facility the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) is responsible for the determination of the official Precise Science Orbit (PSO) product. Kinematic GOCE orbits are part of this product and are used by several institutions in- and outside the HPF for determining the low degrees of the Earth’s gravity field. AIUB GOCE GPS-only gravity field solutions using the Celestial Mechanics Approach and covering the Release 4 period as well as a more recent time interval at the lower orbit altitude are shown and discussed. Special attention is paid to the impact of systematic deficiencies in the kinematic orbits on the resulting gravity fields, e.g., related to the geomagnetic equator, and on possibilities to get rid of them.