Essays on Wage and Price Formation in Sweden

Study IReal Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate. Study IIIntersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. Study IIIWage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.

Author stance in doctoral dissertations of native and non-native speakers of English: a corpus-based study on epistemic adverbs

[EN]Our study concentrates on the epistemic adverbs used in conveying author stance in academic English. The Contrastive Interlanguage Analysis (Granger, 1996) was run to three sets of corpora comprising doctoral dissertations written by native and non-native academic authors of English. Epistemic adverbs occurring in the dissertations were identified through a computer programme and their frequencies were separately computed for each corpus. Lastly, a log-likelihood test was administered to see whether there is a statistically significant difference across the groups in concern concerning the use of these adverbs.

Indicatori di correlazione e di disordine basati sul concetto di entropia

The aim of this work is to carry out an applicative, comparative and exhaustive study between several entropy based indicators of independence and correlation. We considered some indicators characterized by a wide and consolidate literature, like mutual information, joint entropy, relative entropy or Kullback Leibler distance, and others, more recently introduced, like Granger, Maasoumi and racine entropy, also called Sρ, or utilized in more restricted domains, like Pincus approximate entropy or ApEn. We studied the behaviour of such indicators applying them to binary series. The series was designed to simulate a wide range of situations in order to characterize indicators limit and capability and to identify, case by case, the more useful and trustworthy ones. Our target was not only to study if such indicators were able to discriminate between dependence and independence because, especially for mutual information and Granger, Maasoumi and Racine, that was already demonstrated and reported in literature, but also to verify if and how they were able to provide information about structure, complexity and disorder of the series they were applied to. Special attention was paid on Pincus approximate entropy, that is said by the author to be able to provide information regarding the level of randomness, regularity and complexity of a series. By means of a focused and extensive research, we furthermore tried to clear the meaning of ApEn applied to a couple of different series. In such situation the indicator is named in literature as cross-ApEn. The cross-ApEn meaning and the interpretation of its results is often not simple nor univocal and the matter is scarcely delved into by literature, thereby users can easily leaded up to a misleading conclusion, especially if the indicator is employed, as often unfortunately it happens, in uncritical manner. In order to plug some cross-ApEn gaps and limits clearly brought out during the experimentation, we developed and applied to the already considered cases a further indicator we called “correspondence index”. The correspondence index is perfectly integrated into the cross-ApEn computational algorithm and it is able to provide, at least for binary data, accurate information about the intensity and the direction of an eventual correlation, even not linear, existing between two different series allowing, in the meanwhile, to detect an eventual condition of independence between the series themselves.

Nukleation pflanzlicher Mikrotubuli: Expression relevanter Gene

Die wichtigsten Bestandteile des Cytoskeletts in pflanzlichen Zellen sind die Actinfilamente und die Mikrotubuli. Die Mikrotubuli spielen in der Organisation und der Morphogenese von pflanzlichen Zellen eine wichtige Rolle. Sie sind zusammen mit den Cellulosefibrillen an der Formgebung der Pflanzenzelle beteiligt. Sie bilden das Präprophaseband, das die Zellteilungsebene bestimmt und die Mitosespindel, die für die Trennung der Chromosomen sorgt, sowie den Phragmoplasten, der die Zellwand zwischen den Tochterzellen bildet. Weiterhin geben die Mikrotubuli durch Interaktion mit den Cellulose-Synthase-Komplexen die Richtung der Zellexpansion vor (GRANGER und CYR, 2001; LLOYD und CHAN, 2002; BASKIN, 2002). Die Mikrotubuli sind auch an der Stabilisierung der Zellform und an Transportprozessen beteiligt. Als Bestandteil der Mikrotubuli-organisierenden Zentren (MTOCs) wurde das γ-Tubulin identifiziert, das sehr wahrscheinlich an der Nukleation der Mikrotubuli beteiligt ist, indem es die Assemblierung der αβ-Tubulindimere zu Mikrotubuli einleitet. In tierischen Zellen ist durch intensive Forschung inzwischen relativ viel über die Funktion von γ-Tubulin, vor allem im Verlauf der Zellteilung bekannt, wie z. B. die Lokalisation in Centrosomen mit ihren paarweise angeordneten Centriolen, die die MTOCs darstellen. In pflanzlichen Zellen sind bisher nur wenige Funktionen des Proteins hinreichend geklärt. Die höheren Pflanzen besitzen keine Centriolen und keine Centrosomen. Über die Zellteilung hinaus gibt es kaum Anhaltspunkte über das Vorhandensein oder eventuelle Aufgaben von γ-Tubulin in expandierenden und voll expandierten Zellkulturen und Pflanzengeweben. In dieser Arbeit wurde die Expression über PCR und die Messung des Proteingehalts von cytoskelett-relevanten Proteinen in den Entwicklungsstadien der Zellsuspensionskultur (BY-2) und von Blattstadien der Tabakpflanze (SR1) von Nicotiana tabacum gemessen. Primäres Ziel war es eine Aussage zu erhalten, in welchem Ausmaß γ-Tubulin in expandierenden und voll expandierten Zellen noch exprimiert wird und ob bzw. wie eine Regulation (transkriptionell oder posttranskriptionell) des γ-Tubulins in der Pflanze stattfindet. Für den Nachweis des γ-Tubulins auf der Proteinebene wurde ein pflanzenspezifischer γ-Tubulin Antikörper zu entwickelt. Bei diesem Antikörper handelte es sich um einen polyklonalen Antikörper, der spezifisch gegen eine Sequenz in pflanzlichem γ-Tubulin gerichtet ist. Dabei zeigte der in der Arbeit entwickelte Antikörper gegen die pflanzliche JOSHI-Domäne spezifische Signale. Der erfolgte Nachweis von γ-Tubulin auf der Proteinebene und der Transkripte zeigte bis in die ältesten untersuchten Stadien der Zellsuspensionskultur (BY-2) und in Geweben der Blattstadien der Tabakpflanze (SR1) deutliche Signale für γ-Tubulin. Es war somit nicht nur in meristematisch aktiven Zellen und Geweben von Nicotiana tabacum, sondern auch in nichtmitotischen Zellen und Geweben vorhanden. Hierbei war über die Phasen der Zellteilung und der Zellformgebung hinweg auf beiden Ebenen eine parallele Entwicklung mit relativ konstanten starken Signalen zu beobachten. Nach dem Einstellen der Teilungsaktivität fiel der Gehalt an mRNA deutlich ab. Dabei nahm die Konzentration des Proteins im Vergleich zur mRNA zeitlich verzögert ab. Diese Ergebnisse bei der Zellsuspensionskultur (BY-2) und Tabakpflanze (SR1) gehen mit der möglichen Nukleationstätigkeit des Proteins konform. Es waren geringere aber doch deutlichen Signale bei Absterbenden Zellen der Zellkultur, bzw. bei expandierenden und voll expandierten und seneszenten Blättern der Tabakpflanze (SR1) nachzuweisen. Dies lässt die Folgerung zu, dass die nachgewiesene mRNA von γ-Tubulin nicht posttranskriptionell reguliert wird, sondern dass das γ-Tubulin auch eine wichtige Rolle außerhalb der Zellteilung in den postmitotischen Stadien, z. B. als organisierender Faktor bei der Umgestaltung oder Stabilisierung des Mikrotubuli-Cytoskeletts, spielt. Der γ-Tubulin-Gehalt in den Geweben der SR1-Pflanze zeigte über die Zellkultur hinaus, dass die Expression von α-Tubulin nach Einstellen der Teilungsaktivität kontinuierlich abnimmt. Dieses Ergebnis legt die Vermutung nahe, dass γ-Tubulin in älteren Blattgeweben zusätzliche Aufgaben übernehmen könnte, die nicht auf eine gleichzeitige Expression von α-Tubulin angewiesen sind. So kann beispielsweise eine Beteiligung von γ-Tubulin an der Stabilisierung der Mikrotubuli, und damit einhergehend eine Abnahme der dynamischen Instabilität dieser Filamente, eine denkbare Funktion des Proteins in expandierendem und voll expandiertem Gewebe sein. Die Aufgaben von γ-Tubulin in sehr altem Gewebe mit deutlichen Anzeichen der Seneszenz können allerdings nach dem derzeitigen Stand der Forschung nicht eindeutig beantwortet werden und bedürfen weitergehenden Untersuchungen, da dadurch ein die Komplexität und die Dynamik des pflanzlichen Cytoskeletts geklärt werden kann.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Albania

The main objective of this thesis is to explore the short and long run causality patterns in the finance – growth nexus and finance-growth-trade nexus before and after the global financial crisis, in the case of Albania. To this end we use quarterly data on real GDP, 13 proxy measures for financial development and the trade openness indicator for the period 1998Q1 – 2013Q2 and 1998Q1-2008Q3. Causality patterns will be explored in a VAR-VECM framework. For this purpose we will proceed as follows: (i) testing for the integration order of the variables; (ii) cointegration analysis and (iii) performing Granger causality tests in a VAR-VECM framework. In the finance-growth nexus, empirical evidence suggests for a positive long run relationship between finance and economic growth, with causality running from financial development to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have not affected the causality direction in the finance and growth nexus, thus supporting the finance led growth hypothesis in the long run in the case of Albania. In the finance-growth-trade openness nexus, we found evidence for a positive long run relationship the variables, with causality direction depending on the proxy used for financial development. When the pre-crisis sample is considered, we find evidence for causality running from financial development and trade openness to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have affected somewhat the causality direction in the finance-growth-trade nexus, which has become sensible to the proxy used for financial development. On the short run, empirical evidence suggests for a clear unidirectional relationship between finance and growth, with causality mostly running from economic growth to financial development. When we consider the per-crisis sub sample results are mixed, depending on the proxy used for financial development. The same results are confirmed when trade openness is taken into account.

Understanding the impact of Twitter on the financial market

Negli anni la funzione dei social network è cambiata molte volte. Alle origini i social network erano uno strumento di connessione tra amici, ora sono siti internet in cui le persone mettono informazioni e quando un social network ha milioni di utenti, diventa un’incredibile sorgente di dati. Twitter è uno dei siti internet più visitati, e viene descritto come “the SMS of internet”, perchè è un social network che permette ai suoi utenti di inviare e leggere messaggi corti, di 140 caratteri, chiamati “tweets”. Con il passare del tempo Twitter `e diventato una fonte fondamentale di notizie. Il suo grande numero di utenti permette alle notizie di espandersi nella rete in modo virale. Molte persone hanno cercato di analizzare il potere dei tweet, come il contenuto positivo o negativo, mentre altri hanno cercato di capire se avessero un potere predittivo. In particolare nel mondo finanziario, sono state avviate molte ricerche per verificare l’esistenza di una effettiva correlazione tra i tweets e la fluttuazione del mercato azionario. L’effettiva presenza di tale relazione unita a un modello predittivo, potrebbe portare allo sviluppo di un modello che analizzando i tweets presenti nella rete, relativi a un titolo azionario, dia informazioni sulle future variazioni del titolo stesso. La nostra attenzione si è rivolata alla ricerca e validazione statistica di tale correlazione. Sono stati effettuati test su singole azioni, sulla base dei dati disponibili, poi estesi a tutto il dataset per vedere la tendenza generale e attribuire maggior valore al risultato. Questa ricerca è caratterizzata dal suo dataset di tweet che analizza un periodo di oltre 2 anni, uno dei periodi più lunghi mai analizzati. Si è cercato di fornire maggior valore ai risultati trovati tramite l’utilizzo di validazioni statistiche, come il “permutation test”, per validare la relazione tra tweets di un titolo con i relativi valori azionari, la rimozione di una percentuale di eventi importanti, per mostrare la dipendenza o indipendenza dei dati dagli eventi più evidenti dell’anno e il “granger causality test”, per capire la direzione di una previsione tra serie. Sono stati effettuati anche test con risultati fallimentari, dai quali si sono ricavate le direzioni per i futuri sviluppi di questa ricerca.

Imagery of a moving object: the role of occipital cortex and human MT/V5+

Visual imagery – similar to visual perception – activates feature-specific and category-specific visual areas. This is frequently observed in experiments where the instruction is to imagine stimuli that have been shown immediately before the imagery task. Hence, feature-specific activation could be related to the short-term memory retrieval of previously presented sensory information. Here, we investigated mental imagery of stimuli that subjects had not seen before, eliminating the effects of short-term memory. We recorded brain activation using fMRI while subjects performed a behaviourally controlled guided imagery task in predefined retinotopic coordinates to optimize sensitivity in early visual areas. Whole brain analyses revealed activation in a parieto-frontal network and lateral–occipital cortex. Region of interest (ROI) based analyses showed activation in left hMT/V5+. Granger causality mapping taking left hMT/V5+ as source revealed an imagery-specific directed influence from the left inferior parietal lobule (IPL). Interestingly, we observed a negative BOLD response in V1–3 during imagery, modulated by the retinotopic location of the imagined motion trace. Our results indicate that rule-based motion imagery can activate higher-order visual areas involved in motion perception, with a role for top-down directed influences originating in IPL. Lower-order visual areas (V1, V2 and V3) were down-regulated during this type of imagery, possibly reflecting inhibition to avoid visual input from interfering with the imagery construction. This suggests that the activation in early visual areas observed in previous studies might be related to short- or long-term memory retrieval of specific sensory experiences.

Dronedarone in high-risk permanent atrial fibrillation

Dronedarone restores sinus rhythm and reduces hospitalization or death in intermittent atrial fibrillation. It also lowers heart rate and blood pressure and has antiadrenergic and potential ventricular antiarrhythmic effects. We hypothesized that dronedarone would reduce major vascular events in high-risk permanent atrial fibrillation.

Change mechanisms of schema-centered group psychotherapy with personality disorder patients

Background This study addressed the temporal properties of personality disorders and their treatment by schema-centered group psychotherapy. It investigated the change mechanisms of psychotherapy using a novel method by which psychotherapy can be modeled explicitly in the temporal domain. Methodology and Findings 69 patients were assigned to a specific schema-centered behavioral group psychotherapy, 26 to social skills training as a control condition. The largest diagnostic subgroups were narcissistic and borderline personality disorder. Both treatments offered 30 group sessions of 100 min duration each, at a frequency of two sessions per week. Therapy process was described by components resulting from principal component analysis of patients' session-reports that were obtained after each session. These patient-assessed components were Clarification, Bond, Rejection, and Emotional Activation. The statistical approach focused on time-lagged associations of components using time-series panel analysis. This method provided a detailed quantitative representation of therapy process. It was found that Clarification played a core role in schema-centered psychotherapy, reducing rejection and regulating the emotion of patients. This was also a change mechanism linked to therapy outcome. Conclusions/Significance The introduced process-oriented methodology allowed to highlight the mechanisms by which psychotherapeutic treatment became effective. Additionally, process models depicted the actual patterns that differentiated specific diagnostic subgroups. Time-series analysis explores Granger causality, a non-experimental approximation of causality based on temporal sequences. This methodology, resting upon naturalistic data, can explicate mechanisms of action in psychotherapy research and illustrate the temporal patterns underlying personality disorders.

ESTIMATING TEMPORAL ASSOCIATIONS IN ELECTROCORTICOGRAPHIC (ECoG) TIME SERIES WITH FIRST ORDER PRUNING

Granger causality (GC) is a statistical technique used to estimate temporal associations in multivariate time series. Many applications and extensions of GC have been proposed since its formulation by Granger in 1969. Here we control for potentially mediating or confounding associations between time series in the context of event-related electrocorticographic (ECoG) time series. A pruning approach to remove spurious connections and simultaneously reduce the required number of estimations to fit the effective connectivity graph is proposed. Additionally, we consider the potential of adjusted GC applied to independent components as a method to explore temporal relationships between underlying source signals. Both approaches overcome limitations encountered when estimating many parameters in multivariate time-series data, an increasingly common predicament in today's brain mapping studies.

What Limits Bacterial Production in the Suboxic Region of Permanently Ice-Covered Lake Bonney, Antarctica?

Bacterial production assays (thymidine incorporation rates) were used to evaluate the activity of heterotrophic bacteria at the chemocline region in both the East (ELB) and West (WLB) Lobes of permanently ice-covered Lake Bonney, in the Taylor Valley of Antarctica. The magnitude of activity varied dramatically within the depth interval of 1 to 2 m from moderate to very low levels below the chemocline, especially in the East Lobe, where chemical distributions indicate the absence of a normally functioning nitrogen cycle. Several parameters (e.g. addition of nutrients or chelators, dilution) were manipulated in incubation experiments in order to identify factors that would enhance activity in the suboxic deep waters of the East Lobe. Activity, in terms of thymidine incorporation, was consistently detected in the deep-water communities, implying that, although the water may be 'toxic', the cells remain viable. None of the treatments resulted in consistent enhancement of thymidine incorporation rates in samples from below the chemocline. Bacterial populations above the chemocline appear to be phosphorus-limited. The nature of the limitation, toxicity or inhibition that limits bacterial activity in the suboxic waters has not been identified.

Denitrification in the Hypolimnion of Permanently Ice-Covered Lake Bonney, Antarctica

The distribution of denitrification was investigated in the hypolimnion of the east and west lobes of permanently ice-covered Lake Bonney, Taylor Valley, Antarctica. Anomalously high concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; nitrate, nitrite, ammonium and nitrous oxide) in the oxygen-depleted hypolimnion of the east lobe of the Lake implied that denitrification is or was active in the west, but not in the east lobe. While previous investigations reported no detectable denitrification in the east lobe, we measured active denitrification in samples from both the east and west lobes. In the west lobe, measured denitrification rates exhibited a maximum at the depth of the chemocline and denitrification was not detectable in either the oxic surface waters or in the deep water where nitrate was absent. In the east lobe, denitrification was detected below the chemocline, at the depths where ammonium, nitrate, nitrite and nitrous oxide are all present at anomalously high levels, Trace metal availability was manipulated in incubation experiments in order to determine whether trace metal toxicity in the east lobe could explain the difference in nitrogen cycling between the 2 lobes. There were no consistent stimulatory effects of metal chelators or nutrient addition on the rate of denitrification in either lobe, so that the mechanisms underlying the unusual N cycle of the east lobe remain unknown. We conclude that all the ingredients necessary to allow denitrification to occur are present in the east lobe. However, even though denitrification could be detected under certain conditions in incubations, denitrification is inhibited under the in situ conditions of the lake.

Dynamic directed interictal connectivity in left and right temporal lobe epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE There is increasing evidence that epileptic activity involves widespread brain networks rather than single sources and that these networks contribute to interictal brain dysfunction. We investigated the fast-varying behavior of epileptic networks during interictal spikes in right and left temporal lobe epilepsy (RTLE and LTLE) at a whole-brain scale using directed connectivity. METHODS In 16 patients, 8 with LTLE and 8 with RTLE, we estimated the electrical source activity in 82 cortical regions of interest (ROIs) using high-density electroencephalography (EEG), individual head models, and a distributed linear inverse solution. A multivariate, time-varying, and frequency-resolved Granger-causal modeling (weighted Partial Directed Coherence) was applied to the source signal of all ROIs. A nonparametric statistical test assessed differences between spike and baseline epochs. Connectivity results between RTLE and LTLE were compared between RTLE and LTLE and with neuropsychological impairments. RESULTS Ipsilateral anterior temporal structures were identified as key drivers for both groups, concordant with the epileptogenic zone estimated invasively. We observed an increase in outflow from the key driver already before the spike. There were also important temporal and extratemporal ipsilateral drivers in both conditions, and contralateral only in RTLE. A different network pattern between LTLE and RTLE was found: in RTLE there was a much more prominent ipsilateral to contralateral pattern than in LTLE. Half of the RTLE patients but none of the LTLE patients had neuropsychological deficits consistent with contralateral temporal lobe dysfunction, suggesting a relationship between connectivity changes and cognitive deficits. SIGNIFICANCE The different patterns of time-varying connectivity in LTLE and RTLE suggest that they are not symmetrical entities, in line with our neuropsychological results. The highest outflow region was concordant with invasive validation of the epileptogenic zone. This enhanced characterization of dynamic connectivity patterns could better explain cognitive deficits and help the management of epilepsy surgery candidates.

Altered directed functional connectivity in temporal lobe epilepsy in the absence of interictal spikes: A high density EEG study.

OBJECTIVE In patients with epilepsy, seizure relapse and behavioral impairments can be observed despite the absence of interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs). Therefore, the characterization of pathologic networks when IEDs are not present could have an important clinical value. Using Granger-causal modeling, we investigated whether directed functional connectivity was altered in electroencephalography (EEG) epochs free of IED in left and right temporal lobe epilepsy (LTLE and RTLE) compared to healthy controls. METHODS Twenty LTLE, 20 RTLE, and 20 healthy controls underwent a resting-state high-density EEG recording. Source activity was obtained for 82 regions of interest (ROIs) using an individual head model and a distributed linear inverse solution. Granger-causal modeling was applied to the source signals of all ROIs. The directed functional connectivity results were compared between groups and correlated with clinical parameters (duration of the disease, age of onset, age, and learning and mood impairments). RESULTS We found that: (1) patients had significantly reduced connectivity from regions concordant with the default-mode network; (2) there was a different network pattern in patients versus controls: the strongest connections arose from the ipsilateral hippocampus in patients and from the posterior cingulate cortex in controls; (3) longer disease duration was associated with lower driving from contralateral and ipsilateral mediolimbic regions in RTLE; (4) aging was associated with a lower driving from regions in or close to the piriform cortex only in patients; and (5) outflow from the anterior cingulate cortex was lower in patients with learning deficits or depression compared to patients without impairments and to controls. SIGNIFICANCE Resting-state network reorganization in the absence of IEDs strengthens the view of chronic and progressive network changes in TLE. These resting-state connectivity alterations could constitute an important biomarker of TLE, and hold promise for using EEG recordings without IEDs for diagnosis or prognosis of this disorder.

Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.