Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Determinants of credit risk in secured loans – Evidence from the auto loan industry

The purpose of this study is to examine attributes which have explanation power to the probability of default or serious overdue in secured auto loans. Another goal is to find out differences between defaulted loans and loans which have had payment difficulties but survived without defaulting. 19 independent variables used in this study reflect information available at the time of credit decision. These variables were tested with logistic regression and backward elimination procedure. The data includes 8931 auto loans from a Finnish finance company. 1118 of the contracts were taken by company customers and 7813 by private customers. 130 of the loans defaulted and 584 had serious payment problems but did not default. The maturities of those loans were from one month to 60 months and they have ended during year 2011. The LTV (loan-to-value) variable was ranked as the most significant explainer because of its strong positive relationship with probability of payment difficulties. Another important explainer in this study was the credit rating variable which got a negative relationship with payment problems. Also maturity and car age performed well having both a positive relationship with the probability of payment problems. When compared default and serious overdue situations, the most significant differences were found in the roles of LTV, Maturity and Gender variables.

Return and Volatility spillovers among stock and Foreign Exchange Markets: Empirical Evidence from selected African Markets

Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.

Uma avaliação das contribuições de Stiglitz à teoria dos mercados financeiros

The objective and originality of this paper lie in identifying Stiglitz's main theoretical contributions to Financial Economics and in briefly portraying the contemporary economic thought out of which these contributions emerged as well as in suggesting their connections with the subsequent economic thought. Grounded on a detailed analysis of Stiglitz's works on finance, his most important theoretical findings are singled out and gathered into four issues: (1) the conditions under which the Modigliani-Miller theorem is valid; (2) the inconsistency inherent to the efficient market hypothesis; (3) the microeconomic effects of asymmetrical information in financial markets; and (4) its real macroeconomic effects. In all of these topics, the focal point of Stiglitz's theoretical research is the unrealistic underpinnings on which the Arrow-Debreu competitive equilibrium model relies. It is also emphasised that this same perspective he coherently followed to construct a fully-fledged theoretical framework would be preserved in his empirical investigations, notably about developing countries, on which he has concentrated effort since the beginnings of the nineties.

Inovações financeiras e institucionais do sistema de financiamento residencial americano

This article has the gold of summarize the institutional modifications of the US housing finance system between the 60's and the end of the 90's. Those changes narrowed the bonds between this segment of the credit market and the securitized financial markets, encouraging the foundation and diffusion of financial innovations that are in the core of the current financial crises.

Essays in open economy macroeconomics with borrowing frictions

Cette thèse comporte trois essais en macroéconomie en économie ouverte et commerce international. Je considère tour à tour les questions suivantes: sous quelles conditions est-il optimal pour un pays de former une union économique? (essai 1); l'augmentation de la dispersion transversale des avoirs extérieurs nets des pays est-elle compatible avec une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement? (essai 2); le risque de perte de marché à l'exportation du fait de l'existence des zones de commerce préférentiel joue t-il un rôle dans la décision des pays exclus de négocier des accords commerciaux à leur tour? (essai 3). Le premier essai examine les conditions d'optimalité d'une union économique. Il s'intéresse à une motivation particulière: le partage du risque lié aux fluctuations du revenu. Dans la situation initiale, les pays ont très peu d'opportunités pour partager le risque à cause des frictions: les marchés financiers internationaux sont incomplets et il n'y pas de mécanisme pour faire respecter les contrats de crédit entre pays. Dans ce contexte, une union économique apparait comme un arrangement qui pallie à ces frictions entre les pays membres seulement. Cependant, l'union dans son ensemble continue de faire face à ces frictions lorsqu'elle échange avec le reste du monde. L'arbitrage clé dans le modèle est le suivant. D'un coté, l'intégration économique permet un meilleur partage du risque entre pays membres et la possibilité pour le partenaire pauvre d'utiliser la ligne de crédit du partenaire riche en cas de besoin. De l'autre coté, l'union peut faire face à une limite de crédit plus restrictive parce que résilier la dette extérieure est moins coûteux pour les membres l'union. De plus, le fait que le partenaire pauvre peut utiliser la limite de crédit du partenaire riche génère une externalité négative pour ce dernier qui se retrouve plus fréquemment contraint au niveau des marchés internationaux des capitaux. En conformité avec les faits observés sur l'intégration économique, le modèle prédit que les unions économiques sont relativement peu fréquentes, sont plus susceptibles d'être créées parmi des pays homogènes, et généralement riches. Le deuxième essai porte sur la dispersion des avoirs extérieurs nets et la relation avec la dispersion des taux d'investissement. Au cours des récentes décennies, la dispersion croissante des déséquilibres extérieurs et les niveaux record atteints par certaines grandes économies ont reçu une attention considérable. On pourrait attribuer ce phénomène à une réduction des barrières aux mouvements internationaux des capitaux. Mais dans ce cas, il est légitime de s'attendre à une augmentation de la dispersion au niveau des taux d'investissement; ceci, parce que le financement des besoins en investissements constitue une raison fondamentale pour laquelle les pays échangent les capitaux. Les données indiquent cependant que la dispersion des taux d'investissement est restée relativement stable au cours des récentes décennies. Pour réconcilier ces faits, je construis un modèle d'équilibre général dynamique et stochastique où les pays sont hétérogènes en raison des chocs idiosyncratiques à leurs niveaux de productivité totale des facteurs. Au niveau des marchés internationaux des capitaux, le menu des actifs disponibles est restreint à une obligation sans risque et il n'y a pas de mécanisme pour faire respecter les contrats de crédit entre pays. A tout moment, un pays peut choisir de résilier sa dette extérieure sous peine d'exclusion financière et d'un coût direct. Ce coût direct reflète les canaux autres que l'exclusion financière à travers lesquels les pays en défaut sont pénalisés. Lorsque le modèle est calibré pour reproduire l'évolution de la dispersion transversale des avoirs extérieurs nets, il produit une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement. La raison principale est que les incitations que les pays ont à investir sont liées à la productivité. Avec l'intégration financière, même si les opportunités d'emprunt se sont multipliées, les incitations à investir n'ont pas beaucoup changé. Ce qui permet de générer une dispersion accrue de la position des avoirs extérieurs nets des pays avec une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement. Le troisième essai analyse un aspect de l'interdépendance dans la formation des accords commerciaux préférentiels: j'examine empiriquement si le risque de diversion des exportations en faveur des pays membres des zones de commerce préférentiel est un facteur déterminant dans la décision des pays exclus de ces accords de négocier un accord à leur tour. Je construis un indicateur qui mesure le potentiel de diversion des exportations auquel font face les pays et estime un modèle probit de formation des zones de commerce préférentiel créées entre 1961 et 2005. Les résultats confirment que les pays confrontés à un plus grand potentiel de détournement des échanges sont plus susceptibles de former une zone de commerce préférentiel à leur tour.

L’affaire BCE et les devoirs des administrateurs lors d’une prise de contrôle

Depuis les dernières années, les marchés financiers ont été marqués par une volonté des investisseurs, dont les fonds d’investissement privés, de privatiser des sociétés publiques. Plusieurs fermetures de capital se sont matérialisées par des acquisitions par voie d’emprunt (aussi connues sous le nom « leverage buy-out »), en raison notamment des taux d’intérêt peu élevés, d’un crédit plus accessible et d’un certain resserrement de la réglementation applicable aux sociétés publiques. S’inscrivant dans ce contexte, le présent mémoire de maîtrise s’intéresse particulièrement à l’impact des jugements rendus dans le cadre du litige relatif à l’offre d’acquisition par voie d’emprunt de BCE inc. sur les conceptions traditionnelles des devoirs des administrateurs. Dans cette affaire, les détenteurs de débentures de la filiale à part entière de BCE inc., Bell Canada, se sont vigoureusement opposés à cette acquisition. Cette transaction, d’une envergure sans précédent dans l’histoire du Canada, a été scrutée jusqu’à la plus haute instance décisionnelle au pays quant à son caractère raisonnable et équitable et à son effet potentiellement oppressif envers les détenteurs de débentures. Cette étude abordera d’abord l’évolution de la jurisprudence du Delaware sur les devoirs des administrateurs, dans le contexte d’un changement de contrôle, juridiction phare en droit des sociétés aux États-Unis et source d’inspiration marquée en droit canadien. Ensuite, nous nous attarderons sur la position du droit canadien et sur un arrêt marquant rendu par la Cour suprême du Canada, dans l’affaire Peoples. Sur cette toile de fond, cette analyse sera complétée par un examen des motifs des décisions rendues par les trois instances judiciaires dans l’affaire BCE et une réflexion sur l’impact de ces décisions sur le droit des sociétés au Canada.

A Study Of Chit Finance In Kerala With Special Emphasis On Kerala State Financial Enterprises Ltd.

Chit funds contribute to the value of financial markets in India particularly in Kerala. Chit finances with its unique features are of great significance especially as a savings cum borrowing avenue. The present study entitled “A Study of chit Finance in Kerala with special emphasis on Kerala State Financial Enterprises Ltd.” examines the socio-economic aspects of Chit schemes run by the private Chit Funds, KSFE, co-operatives, and informal Chit Funds. The study is an attempt to find the reasons for the growing popularity of Chit Funds as savings cum borrowings avenues even in the presence of various other avenues of savings and borrowings and also to understand how the Chit subscribers utilize the funds. The objectives of the present study are to examine the trends and pattern of growth of Chit Funds in the formal sector in Kerala, performance of KSFE as the only public sector Chit Fund company in India, preference for joining Chit Funds, estimate the cost and return on Chit Funds etc. is an indigenous financial instrument is complementary to modern financial techniques of savings and borrowings. KSFE is the dominant foremen in the chit business in Kerala, its weaknesses result in the non-attainment of certain objectives. Driven by the growing trend of privatization, KSFE needs to be innovative and competitive. It is also necessary that KSFE continue its leadership role by being more effective in being the harbinger of more efficiency, professionalism and good governance in the Chit Fund Industry. The growth and development of chit business by protecting the interests of both the subscribers and the foremen will therefore be most beneficial for any growing economy.

Financial crisis: theory and practice

In the last 50 years, we have had approximately 40 events with characteristics related to financial crisis. The most severe crisis was in 1929, when the financial markets plummet and the US gross domestic product decline in more than 30 percent. Recently some years ago, a new crisis developed in the United States, but instantly caused consequences and effects in the rest of the world. This new economic and financial crisis has increased the interest and motivation for the academic community, professors and researchers, to understand the causes and effects of the crisis, to learn from it. This is the one of the main reasons for the compilation of this book, which begins with a meeting of a group of IAFI researchers from the University of Barcelona, where researchers form Mexico and Spain, explain causes and consequences of the crisis of 2007. For that reason, we believed this set of chapters related to methodologies, applications and theories, would conveniently explained the characteristics and events of the past and future financial crisis This book consists in 3 main sections, the first one called "State of the Art and current situation", the second named "Econometric applications to estimate crisis time periods" , and the third one "Solutions to diminish the effects of the crisis". The first section explains the current point of view of many research papers related to financial crisis, it has 2 chapters. In the first one, it describe and analyzes the models that historically have been used to explain financial crisis, furthermore, it proposes to used alternative methodologies such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. On the other hand , Chapter 2 , explains the characteristics and details of the 2007 crisis from the US perspective and its comparison to 1929 crisis, presenting some effects in Mexico and Latin America. The second section presents two econometric applications to estimate possible crisis periods. For this matter, Chapter 3, studies 3 Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil and Peru in the 1994 crisis and estimates the multifractal characteristics to identify financial and economic distress. Chapter 4 explains the crisis situations in Argentina (2001), Mexico (1994) and the recent one in the United States (2007) and its effects in other countries through a financial series methodology related to the stock market. The last section shows an alternative to prevent the effects of the crisis. The first chapter explains the financial stability effects through the financial system regulation and some globalization standards. Chapter 6, study the benefits of the Investor activism and a way to protect personal and national wealth to face the financial crisis risks.

Análisis de la crisis financiera de estados unidos (2007-2008) y la crisis de deuda (2011): su relación e impacto sobre uno de los fundamentales de la economía colombiana, la tasa de cambio

Este documento presenta una perspectiva de como una economía pequeña y abierta (en temas comerciales y de inversión) como la colombiana, se ve afectada por choques que sufren economías grandes como la estadounidense. Durante el periodo de estudio la economía de Estados Unidos sufrió dos choques: primero la crisis de las hipotecas subprime en los años 2007-2008; luego la crisis de deuda soberana de Estados Unidos en 2011. Estos dos choques afectaron la economía colombiana. En ambos casos, se puede establecer un hecho clave que detonó las crisis. En el primero, la entrada en el capítulo 11 de protección a bancarrotas por parte de Lehman Brothers, el 15 de septiembre de 2008. En el segundo, el detonante fue la baja de la calificación de la deuda soberana de Estados Unidos por parte de Standard and Poor´s el 5 de agosto de 2011. Estos días claves en las crisis, afectaron los principales índices de la bolsa de Estados Unidos, especialmente los relacionados con la actividad financiera, luego es de suponer que posiblemente también afectaron fundamentales de la economía colombiana como lo es la tasa de cambio peso-dólar (USD/COP). Este documento tiene como objeto principal, establecer el impacto de las crisis Norteamericana de 2007-2008 y de 2011, sobre la economía colombiana, específicamente sobre la tasa de cambio USD/COP. El documento también, analiza las causas que generaron dichas crisis en Estados Unidos, haciendo énfasis en la falta de regulación y control por parte de las instituciones del gobierno en la crisis de las hipotecas subprime. De igual forma se analiza el papel de las firmas calificadoras de riesgo, en la crisis de deuda estadounidense.

Metodologías de valoración de empresas

La valoración de una empresa como sistema dinámico es bastante compleja, los diferentes modelos o métodos de valoración son una aproximación teórica y por consiguiente simplificadora de la realidad. Dichos modelos, se aproximan mediante supuestos o premisas estadísticas que nos permiten hacer dicha simplificación, ejemplos de estos, son el comportamiento del inversionista o la eficiencia del mercado. Bajo el marco de un mercado emergente, este proceso presenta de indistinta forma retos paracualquier método de valoración, dado a que el mercado no obedece a los paradigmas tradicionales. Lo anterior hace referencia a que la valoración es aún más compleja, dado que los inversionistas se enfrentan a mayores riesgos y obstáculos. Así mismo, a medida que las economías se globalizan y el capital es más móvil, la valoración tomaráaún más importancia en el contexto citado. Este trabajo de gradopretende recopilar y analizar los diferentes métodos de valoración, además de identificar y aplicar aquellos que se reconocen como “buenas prácticas”. Este proceso se llevó a cabo para una de las empresas más importantes de Colombia, donde fundamentalmente se consideró el contexto de mercado emergente y específicamente el sector petrolero, como criterios para la aplicación del tradicional DCF y el práctico R&V.

Modelación estocástica y trading algorítmico del spread entre acciones mediante procesos de reversión a la media

Las estrategias de inversión pairs trading se basan en desviaciones del precio entre pares de acciones correlacionadas y han sido ampliamente implementadas por fondos de inversión tomando posiciones largas y cortas en las acciones seleccionadas cuando surgen divergencias y obteniendo utilidad cerrando la posición al converger. Se describe un modelo de reversión a la media para analizar la dinámica que sigue el diferencial del precio entre acciones ordinarias y preferenciales de una misma empresa en el mismo mercado. La media de convergencia en el largo plazo es obtenida con un filtro de media móvil, posteriormente, los parámetros del modelo de reversión a la media se estiman mediante un filtro de Kalman bajo una formulación de estado espacio sobre las series históricas. Se realiza un backtesting a la estrategia de pairs trading algorítmico sobre el modelo propuesto indicando potenciales utilidades en mercados financieros que se observan por fuera del equilibrio. Aplicaciones de los resultados podrían mostrar oportunidades para mejorar el rendimiento de portafolios, corregir errores de valoración y sobrellevar mejor periodos de bajos retornos.

¿Complicamos demasiado las cosas en los contratos financieros internacionales? (Tema Central)

Este es un momento de gran agitación dentro de los mercados de crédito. Durante los últimos seis meses, decenas de billones de dólares de inversiones en papeles o instrumentos de deuda han tenido que ser castigados. Poderosas instituciones financieras han caído. Algunas de ellas se han visto obligadas a vender importantes porciones de su participación accionarial a inversionistas no convencionales con el fin de mantener los porcentajes mínimos de capital requerido.

The impact of 9/11 on US REIT returns: fundamental or financial?

Following the attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11 volatility of daily returns of the US stock market rose sharply. This increase in volatility may reflect fundamental changes in the economic determinants of prices such as expected earnings, interest rates, real growth and inflation. Alternatively, the increase in volatility may simply reflect the effects of increased uncertainty in the financial markets. This study therefore sets out to determine if the effects of the attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11 had a fundamental or purely financial impact on US real estate returns. In order to do this we compare pre- and post-9/11 crisis returns for a number of US REIT indexes using an approach suggested by French and Roll (1986), as extended by Tuluca et al (2003). In general we find no evidence that the effects of 9/11 had a fundamental effect on REIT returns. In other words, we find that the effect of the attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11 had only a financial effect on REIT returns and therefore was transitory.

The impact of corporate social performance on financial risk and utility: a longitudinal analysis

This study focuses on the wealth-protective effects of socially responsible firm behavior by examining the association between corporate social performance (CSP) and financial risk for an extensive panel data sample of S&P 500 companies between the years 1992 and 2009. In addition, the link between CSP and investor utility is investigated. The main findings are that corporate social responsibility is negatively but weakly related to systematic firm risk and that corporate social irresponsibility is positively and strongly related to financial risk. The fact that both conventional and downside risk measures lead to the same conclusions adds convergent validity to the analysis. However, the risk-return trade-off appears to be such that no clear utility gain or loss can be realized by investing in firms characterized by different levels of social and environmental performance. Overall volatility conditions of the financial markets are shown to play a moderating role in the nature and strength of the CSP-risk relationship.