Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Lecciones de una crisis anunciada

Resumen: El autor examina las razones de la crisis actual e identifica dos clases de causas, las próximas, relacionadas con las particularidades específicas adoptadas por los mercados financieros, y las remotas, vinculadas a las transiciones culturales que acompañaron al cambio del capitalismo industrial al financiero Entre las causas próximas identificadas se encuentran la desregulación y la falta de supervisión del sector financiero iniciadas a partir de los años 70 en los EEUU, la necesidad de rendimientos cada vez mayores generada por los fondos de pensión y la utilización de modelos con supuestos y herramientas que, en última medida, subestimaban el riesgo de las inversiones. El segundo grupo, las causas remotas, esta compuesto por aquellas que cambiaron el marco cultural de la sociedad occidental. El autor sostiene que las teorías económicas sobre el accionar humano han logrado influenciarlo y que el paradigma de sociedad esta virando hacia uno que no incluye otro valor que la eficiencia, donde la empresa no es vista como una asociación sino como una mera mercancía.

Asset pricing and systematic liquidity risk: an empirical investigation of the Spanish stock market

Systematic liquidity shocks should affect the optimal behavior of agents in financial markets. Indeed, fluctuations in various measures of liquidity are significantly correlated across common stocks. Accordingly, this paper empirically analyzes whether Spanish average returns vary cross-sectionally with betas estimated relative to two competing liquidity risk factors. The first one, proposed by Pastor and Stambaugh (2002), is associated with the strength of volume-related return reversals. Our marketwide liquidity factor is defined as the difference between returns highly sensitive to changes in the relative bid-ask spread and returns with low sensitivities to those changes. Our empirical results show that neither of these proxies for systematic liquidity risk seems to be priced in the Spanish stock market. Further international evidence is deserved.

Una valoración del sector vinícola riojano

Este trabajo es resultado de la investigación realizada en el marco de la Tesis Doctoral sobre Impacto socioeconómico del sector del vino en Rioja, que elabora M. Larreina.

Relación entre la globalización y la internacionalización financiera: el caso de las empresas vascas

[ES] Cada vez es mayor el número de empresas que optan por acudir a mercados financieros exteriores, tanto al objeto de obtener financiación en mejores condiciones, como para realizar inversiones más atractivas que las disponibles dentro de las fronteras nacionales. La decisión de internacionalizar el área financiera de la empresa puede ser el resultado de una estrategia específica orientada al aprovechamiento de las oportunidades que ofrece el proceso de globalización financiera, que se está desarrollando de forma vertiginosa los últimos años.

Balance de la política fiscal desarrollada en España en época de crisis. ¿Por qué elegir el camino contractivo?

The use of a contractive fiscal policy in times of crisis and austerity can lead to so many different opinion streams which can be, at the same time, very opposite with each other. The high budget deficit in some economies has forced the eurozone to implement austerity policies, meaning that the debate is now more alive than ever. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of the implementation of a contractive policy during a crisis considering the case of Spain. The positive effects in financial markets were noticed due to the decrease of the risk premium and the payment of interests, and also thanks to the increase of trust towards Spain. This way, the reduction of the Spanish deficit was remarkable but in any case there is still a long path until reaching the limit of 3% of the GDP. Also, in the short run it is possible to see that the consolidation had contractive effects in the economic activity but, in the long run, the debate is among the defenders of the fact that austerity is followed by a growing period and the ones opposing to it due to the drowning effect produced by it.

Etika finantzetan: ikertutako gaien analisia

Ondoren aurkezten den lana bi helburu nagusi ditu. Alde batetik, Etika Finantzarioak gaur egun duen egoera aztertzea, eta bestalde analizatzea egin diren ikerketak zertan zentratu diren. Horretarako, lan hau oinarrituko da 205 ISI artikuluetan, Leire San-José (UPV/EHU) irakasleak zuzendutako Delphi baten parte direnak. Beraz lan honen zati adierazgarriena bi bloke nagusitan bananduko da. Lehenengoan, artikuluetatik atera ahal diren datu guztiz teknikoak analizatuko dira, esate baterako: publikazio urtea, zein herrialdeetan idatzi diren, zein hizkuntzetan, etab; batez ere ondorengo galderei erantzuna eman ahal izateko: noiz ikertu da gehien? Zein herrialdeetan? Zein gaiei eman zaie garrantzia handiagoa?... Bigarren atalari dagokionez, Etika Finantzarioa osatzen duten gaien gehiengoei buruz egin diren ikerketen azalpen eta komentarioak jorratuko dira. Baina aurrekoaz aparte, mapa kontzeptual bat aurkeztuko da, gai honen azpi-gai eta kontzeptu klabe bilduz; eta horrela, modu argiago batean ikusi ahal izateko Etika Finantzarioa zertan datzan, zeintzuk diren bere barnean dauden gai garrantzitsuenak, eta zein faktore nagusiak dauden gai honetan. Azkenengoz, ondorio batzuk aurkeztuko dira, horien artean gai honek etorkizunean ikertzeko duen ibilbidea egongo delarik.

Mercados Financieros: ¿eficientes o irracionales?

[EN]When we talk about financial markets, we usually talk about falls or rises occurring in them, the earnings of enterprises and their strategic plans... Throughout history a lot of theories and studies have been carried out on them, being the Theory of Efficiency the most one accepted nowadays. But in all of this, there is a great forgotten that is not usually taken into account and that is an important factor, if not the most, in the markets, which is none other than humans. The work is based on the confrontation, practical and theoretical, between the Theory of Efficiency on financial markets and the Theory of Behavioral Finance, with the objective of generating samples in order to see if markets are efficient or irrational. After all, decisions of buying or selling, to acquire a fund or bonds are held by humans. Therefore, in the effort to understand financial markets, understanding human psychology is something essential. Inglés

Regulação financeira sistêmica no Brasil: desafios e propostas de aprimoramento institucional

A presente dissertação versa sobre o estudo da regulação financeira sistêmica brasileira e está dividida em quatro capítulos. No primeiro capítulo, descreve-se a essência das atividades financeiras e narra-se a trajetória histórica que deu ensejo à criação de Bancos Centrais e o surgimento da regulação bancária no mundo. Em seguida, discorre-se sobre o processo de expansão do sistema financeiro e sua internacionalização face à globalização financeira dos mercados. Após a exposição de razões políticas, comportamentais, econômicas e técnicas consideradas determinantes para a consumação da última crise financeira mundial (caso subprime), demonstra-se que uma regulação financeira sistêmica adequada constitui um processo complexo, dinâmico e contínuo de gestão pública com vistas a evitar ou atenuar os efeitos de crises sistêmicas. Nesse sentido, são expostos os motivos por que o Brasil enfrentou bem tal crise, através da apresentação da evolução dos processos regulatórios domésticos nos últimos anos. No segundo capítulo, utilizado o marco político-filosófico de John Rawls, sustenta-se a ideia de que a estabilidade financeira sustentável ao longo do tempo é uma questão de justiça básica que deve influenciar o desenho político-institucional em sociedades democráticas constitucionais. Nesse sentido, afirma-se a possibilidade de geração de um consenso sobreposto, segundo o ideal de razão pública, quanto à necessidade de estabelecimento de instituições, relativamente descoladas dos ciclos político-eleitorais e dotadas de especialização técnica, responsáveis pelo planejamento e acompanhamento público e transparente da sustentabilidade da execução da política monetária e da regulação financeira sistêmica propriamente dita no longo prazo. Adicionalmente, em razão da globalização financeira dos mercados, discorre-se sobre os limites e possibilidades do ideal de razão pública nos organismos financeiros internacionais (redes globais de governo), instituídos para definir padrões de regulação financeira sistêmica, e são feitos comentários acerca da existência de um Direito Administrativo Global. No terceiro capítulo, defende-se a ideia de razão prática regulatória como a diretriz adequada de atuação sustentável do Estado na economia com foco em resultados, a fim de estimular o progresso nos processos regulatórios, mediante o uso do better regulation como paradigma de análise de custos e benefícios. Após, expõe-se a noção de juridicidade administrativa como a mais compatível com a Constituição, além de defender-se a legitimidade democrática e o poder normativo das agências reguladoras financeiras. Por fim, com fundamento nas características do desenho institucional da estrutura regulatória brasileira, são formuladas propostas de aprimoramento institucional. No último capítulo, são feitos comentários sobre as vantagens, limites e riscos de judicialização dos processos regulatórios financeiros em democracias constitucionais, o que motiva a construção de parâmetros institucionais e materiais de atuação judicial, posteriormente analisados em precedentes importantes julgados no Brasil nos últimos anos.

ICTs, globalization and local diversity

This paper is based on a panel discussion at the 2002 International Conference on Information Systems in Barcelona. Three panellists responded to a set of questions on the meaning of the term globalization to them, and the role of information and communications technologies (ICTs) in globalization processes. The panellists also highlighted the importance of local diversity in understanding globalization and ICTs, drawing from their varied research in contexts such as western country financial markets, health systems in Guatemala, and e-commerce in Mexico. A further output of the panel, and this paper, is the identification of key research questions and theories for future IS research in this important area.

金融工作者的抑郁症状的影响因素及其形成机制研究

Ill-health prevails in the workplace. A key problem encountered in the area of stress management is a lack of research into the way job burnout turns into mental problems, especially depressive symptoms, the most prevalent and costly psychiatric condition in the workplace. This research belongs to a cross-discipline area of industrial psychiatry and organizational behavior, which has seldom been investigated before. This research will contribute to the theoretical development of organizational behavior, especially to stress management and industrial psychiatry. This study aims to explore etiological factors and mechanisms of depressive symptoms of workers in the financial industry. By using literature review, semi-structured interviews and surveys as the major research methods, this Ph.D. study systematically investigated the risk factors of workers’ depressive symptoms within and outside of the work area. These risk factors are worker-work environment fits, work family conflicts, and workers’ psychological vulnerabilities to depression. A thorough literature review and 20 semi-structured interviews of brokers in different kinds of financial markets show the feasibility and necessity of this Ph.D. study when it comes to the issue of financial workers’ depressive symptoms. Two surveys of workplace-etiological factors of depressive symptoms were conducted among 244 financial workers and 1024 financial workers. This cross-sample verification showed that worker-work environment fit was a good framework to study risk factors of workers’ depressive symptoms. Results revealed that job demands-abilities misfit could lead to job burnout which in turn contributed to worker’s depressive symptoms; besides this, work effort-reward imbalance could directly cause workers’ depressive symptoms. Emotional labor enhanced the positive effect of job burnout on workers’ depressive symptoms. In the third study, a prominent risk factor outside of the work area, namely work family conflict, and workers’ psychological vulnerabilities of depression were included with workplace etiological factors to investigate the overall predictive model of depressive symptoms of financial workers. The survey was conducted among the same 1024 financial workers. Results indicated that work effort-reward imbalance, job burnout and work interfering in family life were three external etiological factors of workers’ depressive symptoms. Neuroticism, autonomy and low emotional intelligence were three individual etiological factors which had a positive effect on workers’ depressive symptoms. Moreover, neuroticism enhanced the relationship between job burnout and depressive symptoms as well as between work interfering in family life and depressive symptoms. Autonomy aggravated the relationship between job burnout and depressive symptoms. However, emotional intelligence attenuated the relationship between job burnout and depressive symptoms as well as between work effort-reward imbalance and depressive symptoms. Besides, workers’ dysfunctional attitudes played a partial mediating role in the relationships between above etiological factors and depressive symptoms. In the same sample, research evidence of impairments of workers’ depressive symptoms to their work-life quality was also obtained. Specifically, depressive symptoms could predict workers’ presenteeism, absenteeism and turnover intention. Their subjective well-being was also lowered when suffering more severe depressive symptoms. This research provides a theoretical basis to management practices targeted to set up the Employee Assistance Program or even more specilised rehabilitation programs for workers with depressive symptoms so as to improve their work-life quality and and establish a harmonious enterprise.

Problemy strefy Euro

Oficjalne kredyty ratunkowe dla niektórych krajów w strefie euro nie mogą zastąpić tam reform, które – poprawiając sytuację gospodarczą – pozwolą odzyskać owym krajom zaufanie rynków finansowych. W literaturze wymienia się dwie główne strukturalne słabości wspólnej waluty (euro): 1. Jednolita polityka pieniądza nie jest w stanie uwzględnić odmienności sytuacji poszczególnych krajów, a wspólny pieniądz nie pozwala na dewaluację w obrębie strefy euro; 2. Strefa euro istnieje bez „unii politycznej”. Artykuł analizuje zasadność tych tez.

A betting market: Description and a theoretical explanation of bets in pelota matches

In pelota matches, bets are made between viewers through a middleman who receives 16% of the finally paid amount. In this paper a description of the way bets are made and an explanation of the existence of those markets is presented. Taking betting markets as a simplified analogy for financial markets we have searched for the explanation in a world where both sides of the market are not different in believes and preferences. Taking observations from actually made bets a preliminary analysis about the biases of those markets is presented.

Analyses on Gold and US Dollar in Vietnam's Transitional Economy

This paper looks into economic insights offerred by considerations of two important financial markets in Vietnam, gold and USD. In general, the paper focuses on time series properties, mainly returns at different frequencies, and test the weak-form efficient market hypothesis. All the test rejects the efficiency of both gold and foreign exchange markets. All time series exhibit strong serial correlations. ARMA-GARCH specifications appear to have performed well with different time series. In all cases the changing volatility phenomenon is strongly supported through empirical data. An additional test is performed on the daily USD return to try to capture the impacts of Asian financial crisis and daily price limits applicable. No substantial impacts of the Asian crisis and the central bank-devised limits are found to influence the risk level of daily USD return.

A Note on Studies of Monetary Policy and Implementation in Vietnam

In this short paper, we have gone through some key results of monetary policy research applied for the Vietnamese economy, over the past 20 years after Doi Moi, together with a few caveats when putting these results in use. We look at different research themes, and suggest that future research make better and more diverse choice of analytic framework, and also put macro and micro-setting connection at work, which appear to likely bring about better and more insightful results for the monetary economics literature in Vietnam.