黄骅坳陷港西开发区河流相储层构型与剩余油分布模式研究

In the production tail of oilfield, water-cut is very high in thick channel sand oil reservoir, but recovery efficiency is relative low, and recoverable remaining oil reserves is more abundant, so these reserves is potential target of additional development. The remaining oil generally distributed with accumulation in certain areas, controlled by the reservoir architecture that mainly is the lateral accretion shale beddings in the point bar, so the study of reservoir architecture and the remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by architecture are very significant. In this paper, taking the Minghuazhen formation of Gangxi oilfield as a case, using the method of hierarchy analysis, pattern fitting and multidimensional interaction, the architecture of the meandering river reservoir is precisely anatomized, and the remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by the different hierarchy architecture are summarized, which will help to guide the additional development of oil fields. Not only is the study significant to the remaining oil forecasting, but also it is important for the theory development of reservoir geology. With the knowledge of sequence correlation and fluvial correlation model, taking many factors into account, such as combination of well and seismic data, hierarchical controlling, sedimentary facies restraint, performance verification and 3-D closure, an accurate sequence frame of the study area was established. On the basis of high-resolution stratigraphic correlation, single layer and oil sand body are correlated within this frame, and four architecture hierarchies, composite channel, single channels, point bars and lateral accretion sandbody are identified, The result indicates that Minghuazhen Formation of Gangxi oilfield are dominated by meandering river deposition, including two types of channel sandbodies, narrow band and wide band channel sandbody, and each of them has different characteristics of facies variation laterally. Based on the identification of composite channel, according to the spatial combination patterns and identified signs of single channel, combined with channel sandbody distribution and tracer material data, single channel sandbodies are identified. According to empirical formula, point-bar scales of the study area are predicted, and three identification signs are summarized, that is, positive rhythm in depositional sequence, the maximum thick sand and near close to the abandoned channel, and point bars are identified. On the basis of point bar recognition, quantitative architecture models inner point bar are ascertained, taking the lateral accretion sand body and lateral accretion shale beddings in single well as foundation, and quantitative architecture models inner point bar as guidance, and result of tracer material data as controlling, the the lateral accretion sand body and lateral accretion shale beddings are forecasted interwell, so inner architecture of point bar is anatomied. 3-D structural model, 3-D facies model and 3-D petrophysical properties models are set up, spatial distribution characteristics of sedimentary facies and petrophysical properties is reappeared. On the basis of reservoir architecture analysis and performance production data, remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by different hierarchy architecture units, stacked channel, single channel and inner architecture of point bar, are summarized, which will help to guide the additional development of oil fields.

A new interatomic potential for nanoscale silica

Flikkema, Edwin; Bromley, S.T., (2003) 'A new interatomic potential for nanoscale silica', Chemical Physics Letters 378(5-6) pp.622-629 RAE2008

A novel and miniaturized 433/868MHz multi-band wireless sensor platform for body sensor network applications

Body Sensor Network (BSN) technology is seeing a rapid emergence in application areas such as health, fitness and sports monitoring. Current BSN wireless sensors typically operate on a single frequency band (e.g. utilizing the IEEE 802.15.4 standard that operates at 2.45GHz) employing a single radio transceiver for wireless communications. This allows a simple wireless architecture to be realized with low cost and power consumption. However, network congestion/failure can create potential issues in terms of reliability of data transfer, quality-of-service (QOS) and data throughput for the sensor. These issues can be especially critical in healthcare monitoring applications where data availability and integrity is crucial. The addition of more than one radio has the potential to address some of the above issues. For example, multi-radio implementations can allow access to more than one network, providing increased coverage and data processing as well as improved interoperability between networks. A small number of multi-radio wireless sensor solutions exist at present but require the use of more than one radio transceiver devices to achieve multi-band operation. This paper presents the design of a novel prototype multi-radio hardware platform that uses a single radio transceiver. The proposed design allows multi-band operation in the 433/868MHz ISM bands and this, together with its low complexity and small form factor, make it suitable for a wide range of BSN applications.

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Corporeal prisons: dynamics of body and mise-en-scène in three films by Paul Schrader

This thesis focuses on the complex relationship between representations of the human body and the formal processes of mise-en-scène in three consecutive films by the writer-director Paul Schrader: American Gigolo (1980), Cat People (1982) and Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters (1985). While Schrader’s work has typically been critiqued under the broad category of masculinity in crisis (and often as a subset of the films of his more famous long-time collaborator, Martin Scorsese), I focus on a fiveyear early period of his filmography when he sought to explore his key themes of bodily crisis, fragmentation and alienation through an unusually intense focus upon the expressive potential of film form, specifically via the combined elements of colour, lighting, camerawork and production design. By approaching these three films as corporeal character studies of troubled figures whose emotional and psychosexual neurosis is experienced in and through the body, I will locate Schrader’s filmmaking process and style within the thematic and aesthetic contexts of both his own early film criticism and the European and Japanese art cinemas that he claims as his primary influence. In doing so, I will establish Schrader’s position as a director whose literary and theological background differentiated him from his peers of the postclassical Hollywood generation, and who thus continually sought to develop his own visual literacy through his relationship with the camera and his collaborations with more overtly style-oriented film artists. But instead of merely focusing on mise-en-scène to gain a formalist appreciation of these films, I mobilise stylistic analysis as a new critical approach towards the problematic discourses of identity and embodiment that have haunted Schrader’s career from the beginning. In particular, I argue that paying closer attention to Schrader’s formal choices sheds new light on how these films – which he approached as exercises in style – repeatedly deal with the volatile and unavoidably body-oriented categories of race, gender and sexuality. In the process, I argue that a formalist attentiveness to mise-en-scène can also provide valuable cultural insights into Schrader’s oeuvre.

Nutrition, growth and body composition in infancy

This thesis is presented in two parts. Data for this research is from the Cork BASELINE (Babies after SCOPE, Evaluating Longitudinal Impact using Neurological and Nutritional Endpoints) Birth Cohort Study (n = 2137). In this prospective birth cohort study, pediatric follow-up with in-person appointments were repeated from the time of birth through to 2, 6 and 12 months, and at 2 years. Body composition was measured by air displacement plethysmography at birth and at 2 months using the PEA POD Infant Body Composition Tracking System. This thesis provides the first extensive report on the study’s 2 year assessment. In part one, the aims were to investigate potential early-life risk factors for childhood overweight and obesity, including rapid growth and body composition in infancy and umbilical cord concentrations of leptin and high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin. This research is the first to describe rapid growth in early infancy in terms of changes in direct measures of body composition. These are also the first data to examine associations between umbilical cord leptin and HMW adiponectin concentrations and changes in fat and lean mass in early infancy. These data provide additional insight into characterising the growth trajectory in infancy and into the role of perinatal factors in determining infant growth and subsequent overweight/obesity risk. In part two of this thesis, the aims were to quantify vitamin D intake and status at 2 years and to investigate whether 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations in early pregnancy and in umbilical cord blood are associated with infant growth and body composition. There was a low prevalence of vitamin D deficiency among Irish 2 year olds (n = 742) despite a high prevalence of inadequate intakes and high latitude (51°N). Maternal 25(OH)D concentrations at 15 weeks gestation and cord 25(OH)D concentrations at delivery were not associated with infant growth or adiposity.

Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Adaptive stereotactic body radiation therapy planning for lung cancer.

PURPOSE: To investigate the dosimetric effects of adaptive planning on lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Forty of 66 consecutive lung SBRT patients were selected for a retrospective adaptive planning study. CBCT images acquired at each fraction were used for treatment planning. Adaptive plans were created using the same planning parameters as the original CT-based plan, with the goal to achieve comparable comformality index (CI). For each patient, 2 cumulative plans, nonadaptive plan (PNON) and adaptive plan (PADP), were generated and compared for the following organs-at-risks (OARs): cord, esophagus, chest wall, and the lungs. Dosimetric comparison was performed between PNON and PADP for all 40 patients. Correlations were evaluated between changes in dosimetric metrics induced by adaptive planning and potential impacting factors, including tumor-to-OAR distances (dT-OAR), initial internal target volume (ITV1), ITV change (ΔITV), and effective ITV diameter change (ΔdITV). RESULTS: 34 (85%) patients showed ITV decrease and 6 (15%) patients showed ITV increase throughout the course of lung SBRT. Percentage ITV change ranged from -59.6% to 13.0%, with a mean (±SD) of -21.0% (±21.4%). On average of all patients, PADP resulted in significantly (P=0 to .045) lower values for all dosimetric metrics. ΔdITV/dT-OAR was found to correlate with changes in dose to 5 cc (ΔD5cc) of esophagus (r=0.61) and dose to 30 cc (ΔD30cc) of chest wall (r=0.81). Stronger correlations between ΔdITV/dT-OAR and ΔD30cc of chest wall were discovered for peripheral (r=0.81) and central (r=0.84) tumors, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Dosimetric effects of adaptive lung SBRT planning depend upon target volume changes and tumor-to-OAR distances. Adaptive lung SBRT can potentially reduce dose to adjacent OARs if patients present large tumor volume shrinkage during the treatment.

The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Sea Urchin Body Plan Development and Evolution: An Integrative Transcriptomic Approach

My dissertation work integrates comparative transcriptomics and functional analyses to investigate gene expression changes underlying two significant aspects of sea urchin evolution and development: the dramatic developmental changes associated with an ecologically significant shift in life history strategy and the development of the unusual radial body plan of adult sea urchins.

In Chapter 2, I investigate evolutionary changes in gene expression underlying the switch from feeding (planktotrophic) to nonfeeding (lecithotrophic) development in sea urchins. In order to identify these changes, I used Illumina RNA-seq to measure expression dynamics across 7 developmental stages in three sea urchin species: the lecithotroph Heliocidaris erythrogramma, the closely related planktotroph Heliocidaris tuberculata, and an outgroup planktotroph Lytechinus variegatus. My analyses draw on a well-characterized developmental gene regulatory network (GRN) in sea urchins to understand how the ancestral planktotrophic developmental program was altered during the evolution of lecithotrophic development. My results suggest that changes in gene expression profiles occurred more frequently across the transcriptome during the evolution of lecithotrophy than during the persistence of planktotrophy. These changes were even more pronounced within the GRN than across the transcriptome as a whole, and occurred in each network territory (skeletogenic, endomesoderm and ectoderm). I found evidence for both conservation and divergence of regulatory interactions in the network, as well as significant changes in the expression of genes with known roles in larval skeletogenesis, which is dramatically altered in lecithotrophs. I further explored network dynamics between species using coexpression analyses, which allowed me to identify novel players likely involved in sea urchin neurogenesis and endoderm patterning.

In Chapter 3, I investigate developmental changes in gene expression underlying radial body plan development and metamorphosis in H. erythrogramma. Using Illumina RNA-seq, I measured gene expression profiles across larval, metamorphic, and post-metamorphic life cycle phases. My results present a high-resolution view of gene expression dynamics during the complex transition from pre- to post-metamorphic development and suggest that distinct sets of regulatory and effector proteins are used during different life history phases.

Collectively, my investigations provide an important foundation for future, empirical studies to investigate the functional role of gene expression change in the evolution of developmental differences between species and also for the generation of the unusual radial body plan of sea urchins.

Empirical measurement of illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines.

Cigarette smuggling reduces the price of cigarettes, thwarts youth access restrictions, reduces government revenue, and undercuts the ability of taxes to reduce consumption. The tobacco industry often opposes increases to tobacco taxes on the claim that greater taxes induce more smuggling. To date, little is known about the magnitude of smuggling in the Philippines. his information is necessary to effectively address illicit trade and to measure the impacts of tax changes and the introduction of secure tax markings on illicit trade. This study employs two gap discrepancy methods to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in cigarettes for the Philippines between 1994 and 2009. First, domestic consumption is compared with tax-paid sales to measure the consumption of illicit cigarettes. Second, imports recorded by the Philippines are compared with exports to the Philippines by trade partners to measure smuggling. Domestic consumption fell short of tax-paid sales for all survey years. The magnitude of these differences and a comparison with a prevalence survey for 2009 suggest a high level of survey under-reporting of smoking. In the late 1990s and the mid 2000s, the Philippines experienced two sharp declines in trade discrepancies, from a high of $750 million in 1995 to a low of $133.7 million in 2008. Discrepancies composed more than one-third of the domestic market in 1995, but only 10 percent in 2009. Hong Kong, Singapore, and China together account for more than 80 percent of the cumulative discrepancies over the period and 74 percent of the discrepancy in 2009. The presence of large discrepancies supports the need to implement an effective tax marking and tobacco track and trace system to reduce illicit trade and support tax collection. The absence of a relation between tax changes and smuggling suggests that potential increases in the excise tax should not be discouraged by illicit trade. Finally, the identification of specific trade partners as primary sources for illicit trade may facilitate targeted efforts in cooperation with these governments to reduce illicit trade.

Continuing Professional Development: rhetoric and practice in the NHS

This article explores the experience of Continuing Professional Development (CPD) by supervisory-level clinical staff in the National Health Service. Four main themes are highlighted in the literature, namely the nature and experience of CPD, its relationship with human resource management practices and in particular in career development and planning. These themes are examined utilising sources of (triangulated) empirical data based on a 2500 sample survey conducted across five NHS Trusts. A key finding was that responsibility for learning and development was perceived as belonging to the individual rather than the organisation. Other findings concern a lack of resource-based commitment by the organisation to CPD for clinical staff undertaking supervisory-level roles and evidence of 'credentialism' with its emphasis on seeking certificated qualifications. The findings raise concerns about the potential for clinical staff to become disillusioned and to perceive a potential breach in their psychological contract because of problems in reconciling their own interests with those of their professional body, and that of their employer in relation to CPD.

Evaluation of Serious Games: A Holistic Approach

Digital games constitute a major emerging technology that is expected to enter mainstream educational use within a few years. The highly engaging and motivating character of such games bears great potential to support immersive, meaningful, and situated learning experiences. To seize this potential, meaningful quality and impact measurements are indispensible. Although there is a growing body of evidence on the efficacy of games for learning, evaluation is often poorly designed, incomplete, biased, if not entirely absent. Well-designed evaluations demonstrating the educational effect as well as the return on investment of serious games may foster broader adoption by educational institutions and training providers, and support the development of the serious game industry. The European project RAGE introduces a comprehensive and multi-perspective framework for serious game evaluation, which is presented in this paper.

Empirically modelling the potential effects of changes in temperature and prey availability on the growth of cod larvae in UK shelf seas

It has been hypothesized that changes in zooplankton community structure over the past four decades led to reduced growth and survival of prerecruit Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and that this was a key factor underlying poor year classes, contributing to stock collapse, and inhibiting the recovery of stocks around the UK. To evaluate whether observed changes in plankton abundance, species composition and temperature could have led to periods of poorer growth of cod larvae, we explored the effect of prey availability and temperature on early larval growth using an empirical trophodynamic model. Prey availability was parameterized using species abundance data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Our model suggests that the observed changes in plankton community structure in the North Sea may have had less impact on cod larval growth, at least for the first 40 days following hatching, than previously suggested. At least in the short term, environmental and prey conditions should be able to sustain growth of cod larvae and environmental changes acting on this early life stage should not limit stock recovery.

Prey landscapes help identify potential foraging habitats for leatherback turtles in the NE Atlantic

Identifying key marine megavertebrate habitats has become ever more important as concern increases regarding global fisheries bycatch and accelerated climate change. This will be aided by a greater understanding of the patterns and processes determining the spatiotemporal distribution of species of conservation concern. We identify probable foraging grounds for leatherback turtles in the NE Atlantic using monthly landscapes of gelatinous organism distribution constructed from Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey data. Using sightings data (n = 2013 records, 1954 to 2003) from 9 countries (UK, Ireland, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Norway and Sweden), we show sea surface temperatures of approximately 10 to 12 degree C most likely indicate the lower thermal threshold for accessible habitats during seasonal foraging migrations to high latitudes. Integrating maps of gelatinous plankton as a possible indicator of prey distribution with thermal tolerance parameters demonstrates the dynamic (spatial and temporal) nature of NE Atlantic foraging habitats. We highlight the importance of body size- related thermal constraints in structuring leatherback foraging populations and demonstrate a latitudinal gradient in body size (Bergmann's rule) where smaller animals are excluded from higher latitude foraging areas. We highlight the marine area of the European continental shelf edge as being both thermally accessible and prey rich, and therefore potentially supporting appreciable densities of foraging leatherbacks, with some suitable areas not yet extensively surveyed.