Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

Estudo exploratório sobre as atitudes e os comportamentos de alunos e professores do ensino secundário

A exploração exacerbada dos recursos naturais para a satisfação das necessidades humanas e para a manutenção de certos padrões de consumo e estilos de vida provocou a exaustão dos recursos da natureza, a degradação sócio ambiental e a perda de valores na relação homem natureza. O problema não é o consumo porque somos consumidores. O presente estudo teve como objetivo principal aferir e compreender o nível de conhecimento, os comportamentos pró e pós-consumo, a natureza e a extensão das oportunidades e ameaças, bem como pontos fortes e fracos que os alunos e professores da escola secundária selecionada apresentam em relação ao consumo e sustentabilidade e a promoção de ações conducentes à sustentabilidade ambiental. Para a sua realização utilizou-se um guião de entrevistas elaborado para servir de instrumento de gestão da entrevista semi estruturada dirigida a uma amostra de 18 participantes. Os resultados indicam que a maioria dos participantes apresenta um nível de conhecimento satisfatório sobre o consumo e a sustentabilidade, embora se tenha verificado algumas discrepâncias entre os discursos ambientalmente sustentáveis e as práticas de consumo diário. As dificuldades financeiras, os preços elevados e a iliteracia ambiental são as justificativas apresentadas. Constatou-se no grupo uma consciência e sensibilidade para a proteção ambiental, aliadas a uma forte recetividade às informações veiculadas ao longo do estudo, valores que devem ser valorizados e estimulados pela educação ambiental, que deve ser transversal a toda a sociedade, pois para a sustentabilidade do planeta é necessário que todos passem por uma alfabetização ecológica.

Importância da Horticultura para a Segurança Alimentar em Cabo Verde - Estudo de Caso na Ilha do Fogo

A agricultura cabo-verdiana é caracterizada pela baixa e irregular produtividade e não consegue produzir mais do que 20% das necessidades alimentares do país, sendo que a insegurança alimentar e a pobreza estão intimamente ligadas à fraqueza da base produtiva. A horticultura é considerada como um dos sectores mais rentáveis, com um papel importante na segurança alimentar e no orçamento das famílias. A presente dissertação tem como objectivo principal o estudo da importância da horticultura no rendimento e segurança alimentar das famílias, através da venda e consumo de produtos hortícolas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso às familias com e sem produção hortícola na ilha do Fogo em Cabo Verde e verificou-se que os agregados com regadio têm um rendimento anual bastante superior aos rendimentos auferidos pelos agregados sem regadio e a horticultura teve um contributo notável na formação desse rendimento. A nível da alimentação verificou-se que os agregados com regadio tem um consumo calórico superior aos agregados sem regadio. Verificou-se igualmente que os agregados com regadio tem uma alimentação mais diversificada, quer pela frequência de consumo diária de produtos hortícolas e frutas quer pelo consumo per capita dos mesmos.

Energy as an indicator of modernisation in Latin America by 1925

In absence of comparable macroeconomic indicators for most of the Latin American economiesbeyond the 1930s, this paper presents an estimate of the apparent consumption per head of coal and petroleum for 25 countries of Latin American and the Caribbean for the year 1925, doubling the number of countries for which energy consumption estimates were previously available. Energy consumption is then used as an indicator of economic modernisation. As a result, the paper provides the basis for a quantitative comparative analysis of modernisation performance beyond the few countries for which historical national accounts are available in Latin America.

Comparison of the site distribution of melanoma in New Zealand and Canada

A comparison of the site distribution of cutaneous malignant melanoma in New Zealand and Canada was performed. This series deals with 41,331 incident cases registered between 1968 and 1990 and is the largest to date to evaluate the influence of age and gender on the site distribution of melanoma. Site-specific, age-standardized rates per unit surface area and relative tumour density were assessed by gender and country and differences compared with statistical techniques adapted to this context. The age-standardized rates for all sites were higher in New Zealand than in Canada, the ratio being 3.2 for men and 3.8 for women. Occurrence of melanoma was denser for chronically than intermittently exposed sites in both New Zealand and Canada. The highest incidence rate per unit area was for the ears in men which was more than 5 times the rate for the entire body in each country. For each gender, melanomas were relatively commoner on the trunk and the face in Canada, and on the lower limbs in New Zealand. The variations in the site distribution were similar in each country and consistent with the effect of differential patterns of sun exposure between genders. Our results show that the levels of risk of melanoma between phenotypically comparable populations exposed to different amount of UV radiation vary in a site-specific manner, especially for intermittently exposed sites. This suggests that both environmental conditions and lifestyle factors influence the site distribution of melanoma in these two populations.

Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.

Distributed Energy Production in the North-West Region of Russia

The energy system of Russia is the world's fourth largest measured by installed power. The largest are that of the the United States of America, China and Japan. After 1990, the electricity consumption decreased as a result of the Russian industry crisis. The vivid economic growth during the latest few years explains the new increase in the demand for energy resources within the State. In 2005 the consumption of electricity achieved the maximum level of 1990 and continues to growth. In the 1980's, the renewal of power facilities was already very slow and practically stopped in the 1990's. At present, the energy system can be very much characterized as outdated, inefficient and uneconomic because of the old equipment, non-effective structure and large losses in the transmission lines. The aim of Russia's energy reform, which was started in 2001, is to achieve a market based energy policy by 2011. This would thus remove the significantly state-controlled monopoly in Russia's energy policy. The reform will stimulateto decrease losses, improve the energy system and employ energy-saving technologies. The Russian energy system today is still based on the use of fossil fuels, and it almost totally ignores the efficient use of renewable sources such as wind, solar, small hydro and biomass, despite of their significant resources in Russia. The main target of this project is to consider opportunities to apply renewable energy production in the North-West Federal Region of Russia to partly solve the above mentioned problems in the energy system.

Investment Determinants and Future Shape of Russia's Power Generation

The reformation of power sector is still in the process of development. The present day situation in Russian electricity power market ischaracterized as transitional period: competitive electricity market is forming, new companies are being created and the power of government regulation is decreasing. The main aim of the reformation is to attract much-needed private investments to the power sector. The electricity consumption increases very rapidly and power sector has to cope with high demand. The goal of this master's thesis is to analyze the nowadays situation in Russian power sector, such as generation structure, condition of electricity networks, electricity price formation for end-users, shape of fuel sector and investments risks and attraction.The final result of this work is creation of scenario of Russian power sector future shape and analysis of the present day situation.

Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutussähköverkkoliiketoimintaan

Tässä diplomityössä tutkittiin ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta sähköverkkoliiketoimintaan. Ilmastonmuutosennusteet laadittiin RCAOilmastomallin antamien laskelmien perusteella. Ilmastomuuttujien ennusteet tehtiin ajanjaksolle 2016 - 2045 ja ennusteiden vertailujaksona käytettiin ajanjaksoa 1960 - 1990. Ennusteet laadittiin sadannalle, lämpötilalle, kuuraantumiselle, huurteelle, ukkoselle, routaantumiselle ja tuulisuudelle. Ilmastomuuttujien vaikutukset arvioitiin sekä tekniseltä että taloudelliselta kannalta. Ilmastonmuutoksen myötä on odotettavissa, että ilmastomuuttujien aiheuttamat rasitukset verkkoliiketoimintaa kohtaan tulevat olemaan niistä saatuja hyötyjä suuremmat. Vikamäärien kasvu on merkittävin ja haastavin ilmastonmuutoksen aiheuttama haitta. Ukkonen, lumikuormat ja tuuli tulevat aiheuttamaan nykyistä enemmän vikoja erityisesti keskijänniteverkoissa avojohdoille ellei verkkoja kehitetä vikavarmemmiksi. Lämpötilan nousun seurauksena lämmitystarve laskee ja jäähdytystarve nousee. Tämä näkyy merkittävimmin voimakkaasti lämpötilariippuvaisten käyttäjäryhmien sähkönkulutuksessa ja huippukuormissa.

Ympäristöjärjestelmän toteuttamisen edellytykset Lappeenrannan teknillisellä yliopistolla

Lappeenrannan teknilliselle yliopistolle tehtävässä ympäristösuunnitelmassa tavoitteena on selvittää Senaatti-kiinteistöjen ympäristöjärjestelmän tavoitteiden toteutettavuus yliopistolla, löytää yliopiston merkittävimmät ympäristövaikutukset sekä asettaa ympäristöasioiden hoidolle päämääriä ja tavoitteita.Diplomityön on tarkoitus toimia jatkossa tukimateriaalina ympäristöasioiden hoidon kehittämiselle. Teoriaosassa on esitetty ympäristöjärjestelmän rakentaminen ja tavoitteet sekä käyty läpi ympäristösuunnitelman toteuttamista. Tutkimusosassa laaditaan Senaatti-kiinteistön ympäristöjärjestelmän toteuttamisen esittelyn jälkeen yliopiston ympäristösuunnitelma. Yliopiston tämänhetkiset ympäristökäytännöt kartoitetaan sekä toimintaa koskevat ympäristönäkökohdat tunnistetaan ja arvotetaan. Merkittävien ympäristönäkökohtien valitsemisen jälkeen yliopistolle on laadittu ehdotukset hankintoja, jätehuoltoa ja sähkön kulutusta koskevista ympäristöohjelmista. Ympäristöohjelmissa ehdotetaan päämääriä, tavoitteita sekä käytännön ohjeita ja seurantaa toimintojen kehittämistä varten.

Pienten päivittäistavarakauppojen energiatalouden parantaminen

Työn tavoitteena oli löytää keinoja, joiden avulla kylmälaite- ja ilmanvaihtojärjestelmien toimintaa voitaisiin kehittää ja myymälöiden energiataloutta parantaa. Johtopäätökset sekä jatkotoimenpide-ehdotukset tehtiin koekohteista saatujen mittaustulosten sekä laskennallisten tavoitekulutusten perusteella. Tutkimus koski alle 400 m2 päivittäistavarakauppoja, joita Suomessa oli vuoden 2002 lopussa 3 011 kappaletta. Tutkimuksessa koekohteina toimineet kaksi Siwa-myymälää kuuluvat yli 450 Suomessa toimivan Siwan myymäläketjuun. Koekohteista saatujen tutkimustulosten pohjalta energiansäästötoimenpiteitä voidaan kohdistaa myös muihin Siwa-myymälöihin, jolloin energiansäästöt kasvavat huomattaviksi. Koekohteissa kylmälaitteiden osuus sähköenergiankulutuksesta oli merkittävin. Lämmönkulutuksissa suurten erojen syynä olivat koekohteiden erilaiset lauhdelämmöntalteenottojärjestelmät. Tehokkaalla lauhdelämmön talteenotolla onkin suuri merkitys myymälöiden energiatalouteen. Tulevaisuudessa elektronisten ohjausjärjestelmien käyttö tulee lisääntymään pienissä päivittäistavarakaupoissa. Ohjausjärjestelmällä saavutettavia etuja ovat energiankulutuksen minimointi, lämpötilojen tarkempi säätö- ja valvonta, lämpötilojen rekisteröinti ja kaukovalvonta. Muita myymälän energiatalouden kannalta tärkeitä tekijöitä ovat lauhdelämmön talteenotto, määräajoin tapahtuvat laitehuollot, kylmäntarpeen minimointi, energiatehokkaiden kylmäkalusteiden käyttö sekä kylmäkalusteet huomioiva myymäläsuunnittelu.

Kuopion Energian keskijänniteverkon kehittämissuunnitelma

Tämän työn tavoitteena oli laatia Kuopion Energian keskijänniteverkon kehittämissuunnitelma. Kehittämissuunnitelmaa varten selvitettiin ensin verkon nykytila ja toimivuus korvaustilanteissa. Tämän jälkeen laadittiin vuoteen 2020 asti ulottuvat kuormitusennusteet. Nykytilan ja kuormitusennusteiden pohjalta selvitettiin toimenpiteet, joilla Kuopion Energian keskijänniteverkko selviää tulevaisuuden vaatimuksista. Kehittämissuunnitelmassa selvitettiin alueet, joilla kuormitettavuus, korvattavuus tai oikosulkukestoisuus muodostuisi tulevaisuudessa toimivan sähkönjakelun esteeksi. Työn painopistealueiksi muodostuivat Savilahden ja Petosen alueet. Työssä selvitettiin, kuinka Petosen alueen nopean kuormituksen kasvun aiheuttama lisätehontarve saadaan hoidettua. Vaihtoehtoisina ratkaisutapoina selvitettiin lisäkapasiteetin rakentamista Petosen aluetta nykyisin syöttävälle Leväsen sähköasemalle tai uuden sähköaseman rakentamista. Savilahden alueen kasvavan tehontarpeen tyydyttämiseksi selvitettiin lisätehon saneeraamista Savilahden sähköasemalle tai vastaavasti uuden sähköaseman rakentamista Iloharjun kytkinasemalle.

Hiilidioksidipäästölaskurin kehittäminen toimistoille ja yleisötapahtumille

Diplomityössä on kehitetty websovelluksena toteutettavan ilmastolaskuripalvelun hiilidioksidipäästöjen laskentamoduulit, joiden avulla toimistot ja yleisötapahtumat voivat arvioida omasta toiminnastaan syntyviä hiilidioksidipäästöjä sähkönkulutuksen, lämmönkulutuksen, matkustamisen, kuljetusten ja paperin kulutuksen osalta. Tavoitteena oli kehittää ilmastolaskurista mahdollisimman helppokäyttöinen ja kohderyhmälle hyödyllinen websovellus. Työn kirjallisuusosiossa käsitellään toimistojen ja yleisötapahtumien ympäristövaikutuksia etenkin ilmastonmuutoksen näkökulmasta. Toimistot ja yleisötapahtumat vaikuttavat ilmastonmuutokseen pääasiassa kiinteistöjen sähkön- ja lämmönkulutuksen sekä liikenteen energiankulutuksesta syntyvien hiilidioksidipäästöjen muodossa. Rakennusten energiankulutuksen ja liikenteen yhteys kansalliseen CO2-päästötaseeseen sekä päästöjenvähennystavoitteisiin on merkittävä päästökauppadirektiivin sovellusalan ulkopuolella. Lisäksi tarkastellaan paino- ja paperituotteiden elinkaaren aikaisia ympäristövaikutuksia energiankulutuksen kannalta, sillä paperi on toimistojen ja usein myös tapahtumien merkittävin yksittäinen materiaalivirta. Ilmastolaskuriin kuuluvien hiilidioksidipäästöjen laskentamoduulien kehittämisessä pyrittiin huomioimaan mahdollisimman pitkälle käyttäjien tarpeet ja tiedonsaantimahdollisuudet. Ilmastolaskuri suunniteltiin toimistojen ja yleisötapahtumien ympäristövaikutuksia käsittelevän tutkimustiedon, ilmastolaskuriprojektissa toteutetun esimarkkinakyselyn tulosten, käyttäjähaastatteluista saadun palautteen sekä keskeisesti suunnitteluprosessissa mukana olleen asiantuntijaryhmän antamien kehitysehdotusten perusteella. Työssä on esitetty ilmastolaskurisovelluksen laadulliset kriteerit, tekninen vaatimusmäärittely sekä hiilidioksidipäästöjen laskentaosuuden toteutussuunnitelma, joka sisältää laskentamoduulien käyttöliittymämallit sekä päästölaskentaan liittyvät hiilidioksidipäästökertoimet, oletusarvot, päästölaskentakaavat ja huomautukset.

GENETIC DIVERSITY AND STRUCTURE OF Oenocarpus mapora GERMPLASM CONSERVED AT EASTERN AMAZON

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic diversity and structure in the germoplasm of Oenocarpus mapora conserved at Eastern Amazon. Thus, 88 individuals were genotyped with five microsatellite loci. These individuals belong to 24 accessions that were sampled in eight sample places of three Brazilian Amazon states conserved at the Active Germplasm Bank (AGB) of Embrapa Eastern Amazon. All loci were polymorphic and they generated 85 alleles with an average of 17 alleles per loci. Total genetic diversity (HE) was 0.48. Sample places were considered genetically distinct, with ?p = 0.354. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) identified that the genetic portion among areas was of 36.14% and within 63.86%. The Nei distances varied from 0.091 between Abaetetuba and Santo Antônio do Tauá, both in the state of Pará (PA), to 4.18, between Parintins, AM and Rio Branco, AC. By means of Bayesian analysis, it was identified nine clusters that compose the accessions of the germplasm bank, with different distributions among individuals. The study showed high fixation rates per sample area, which indicates that there may have been significant inbreeding or crossing among parental individuals. It suggests that future samples should be made of different plants in natural populations. Even though, it was verified that there is considerable genetic variation in the germplasm of O. mapora.