Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

A Generic model for the design and analysis of production systems

This dissertation studies the process of operations systems design within the context of the manufacturing organization. Using the DRAMA (Design Routine for Adopting Modular Assembly) model as developed by a team from the IDOM Research Unit at Aston University as a starting point, the research employed empirically based fieldwork and a survey to investigate the process of production systems design and implementation within four UK manufacturing industries: electronics assembly, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering and carpet manufacturing. The intention was to validate the basic DRAMA model as a framework for research enquiry within the electronics industry, where the initial IDOM work was conducted, and then to test its generic applicability, further developing the model where appropriate, within the other industries selected. The thesis contains a review of production systems design theory and practice prior to presenting thirteen industrial case studies of production systems design from the four industry sectors. The results and analysis of the postal survey into production systems design are then presented. The strategic decisions of manufacturing and their relationship to production systems design, and the detailed process of production systems design and operation are then discussed. These analyses are used to develop the generic model of production systems design entitled DRAMA II (Decision Rules for Analysing Manufacturing Activities). The model contains three main constituent parts: the basic DRAMA model, the extended DRAMA II model showing the imperatives and relationships within the design process, and a benchmark generic approach for the design and analysis of each component in the design process. DRAMA II is primarily intended for use by researchers as an analytical framework of enquiry, but is also seen as having application for manufacturing practitioners.

A computational model of intonation for yorùbá text-to-speech synthesis:design and analysis

In this paper we present the design and analysis of an intonation model for text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis applications using a combination of Relational Tree (RT) and Fuzzy Logic (FL) technologies. The model is demonstrated using the Standard Yorùbá (SY) language. In the proposed intonation model, phonological information extracted from text is converted into an RT. RT is a sophisticated data structure that represents the peaks and valleys as well as the spatial structure of a waveform symbolically in the form of trees. An initial approximation to the RT, called Skeletal Tree (ST), is first generated algorithmically. The exact numerical values of the peaks and valleys on the ST is then computed using FL. Quantitative analysis of the result gives RMSE of 0.56 and 0.71 for peak and valley respectively. Mean Opinion Scores (MOS) of 9.5 and 6.8, on a scale of 1 - -10, was obtained for intelligibility and naturalness respectively.

Early design verification of complex assembly variability using a hybrid - model based and physical testing - methodology

Design verification in the digital domain, using model-based principles, is a key research objective to address the industrial requirement for reduced physical testing and prototyping. For complex assemblies, the verification of design and the associated production methods is currently fragmented, prolonged and sub-optimal, as it uses digital and physical verification stages that are deployed in a sequential manner using multiple systems. This paper describes a novel, hybrid design verification methodology that integrates model-based variability analysis with measurement data of assemblies, in order to reduce simulation uncertainty and allow early design verification from the perspective of satisfying key assembly criteria.

Enabling long journeys in electric vehicles:design and demonstration of an infrastructure location model

This research develops a methodology and model formulation which suggests locations for rapid chargers to help assist infrastructure development and enable greater battery electric vehicle (BEV) usage. The model considers the likely travel patterns of BEVs and their subsequent charging demands across a large road network, where no prior candidate site information is required. Using a GIS-based methodology, polygons are constructed which represent the charging demand zones for particular routes across a real-world road network. The use of polygons allows the maximum number of charging combinations to be considered whilst limiting the input intensity needed for the model. Further polygons are added to represent deviation possibilities, meaning that placement of charge points away from the shortest path is possible, given a penalty function. A validation of the model is carried out by assessing the expected demand at current rapid charging locations and comparing to recorded empirical usage data. Results suggest that the developed model provides a good approximation to real world observations, and that for the provision of charging, location matters. The model is also implemented where no prior candidate site information is required. As such, locations are chosen based on the weighted overlay between several different routes where BEV journeys may be expected. In doing so many locations, or types of locations, could be compared against one another and then analysed in relation to siting practicalities, such as cost, land permission and infrastructure availability. Results show that efficient facility location, given numerous siting possibilities across a large road network can be achieved. Slight improvements to the standard greedy adding technique are made by adding combination weightings which aim to reward important long distance routes that require more than one charge to complete.

Refinement methods for software architecture design using the software architecture model

Modern software systems are often large and complicated. To better understand, develop, and manage large software systems, researchers have studied software architectures that provide the top level overall structural design of software systems for the last decade. One major research focus on software architectures is formal architecture description languages, but most existing research focuses primarily on the descriptive capability and puts less emphasis on software architecture design methods and formal analysis techniques, which are necessary to develop correct software architecture design. ^ Refinement is a general approach of adding details to a software design. A formal refinement method can further ensure certain design properties. This dissertation proposes refinement methods, including a set of formal refinement patterns and complementary verification techniques, for software architecture design using Software Architecture Model (SAM), which was developed at Florida International University. First, a general guideline for software architecture design in SAM is proposed. Second, specification construction through property-preserving refinement patterns is discussed. The refinement patterns are categorized into connector refinement, component refinement and high-level Petri nets refinement. These three levels of refinement patterns are applicable to overall system interaction, architectural components, and underlying formal language, respectively. Third, verification after modeling as a complementary technique to specification refinement is discussed. Two formal verification tools, the Stanford Temporal Prover (STeP) and the Simple Promela Interpreter (SPIN), are adopted into SAM to develop the initial models. Fourth, formalization and refinement of security issues are studied. A method for security enforcement in SAM is proposed. The Role-Based Access Control model is formalized using predicate transition nets and Z notation. The patterns of enforcing access control and auditing are proposed. Finally, modeling and refining a life insurance system is used to demonstrate how to apply the refinement patterns for software architecture design using SAM and how to integrate the access control model. ^ The results of this dissertation demonstrate that a refinement method is an effective way to develop a high assurance system. The method developed in this dissertation extends existing work on modeling software architectures using SAM and makes SAM a more usable and valuable formal tool for software architecture design. ^

Design and testing of innovative, artificial intelligence-based techniques to model and control the combustion process and to reduce the Co2 emissions in modern, high-performance, gasoline direct injection engines

This work deals with the development of calibration procedures and control systems to improve the performance and efficiency of modern spark ignition turbocharged engines. The algorithms developed are used to optimize and manage the spark advance and the air-to-fuel ratio to control the knock and the exhaust gas temperature at the turbine inlet. The described work falls within the activity that the research group started in the previous years with the industrial partner Ferrari S.p.a. . The first chapter deals with the development of a control-oriented engine simulator based on a neural network approach, with which the main combustion indexes can be simulated. The second chapter deals with the development of a procedure to calibrate offline the spark advance and the air-to-fuel ratio to run the engine under knock-limited conditions and with the maximum admissible exhaust gas temperature at the turbine inlet. This procedure is then converted into a model-based control system and validated with a Software in the Loop approach using the engine simulator developed in the first chapter. Finally, it is implemented in a rapid control prototyping hardware to manage the combustion in steady-state and transient operating conditions at the test bench. The third chapter deals with the study of an innovative and cheap sensor for the in-cylinder pressure measurement, which is a piezoelectric washer that can be installed between the spark plug and the engine head. The signal generated by this kind of sensor is studied, developing a specific algorithm to adjust the value of the knock index in real-time. Finally, with the engine simulator developed in the first chapter, it is demonstrated that the innovative sensor can be coupled with the control system described in the second chapter and that the performance obtained could be the same reachable with the standard in-cylinder pressure sensors.

Comparative constitutional design for divided societies: a model to explain vonstitutional asymmetries

Comparative studies on constitutional design for divided societies indicate that there is no magic formula to the challenges that these societies pose, as lots of factors influence constitutional design. In the literature on asymmetric federalism, the introduction of constitutional asymmetries is considered a flexible instrument of ethnic conflict resolution, as it provides a mixture of the two main theoretical approaches to constitutional design for divided societies (i.e., integration and accommodation). Indeed, constitutional asymmetries are a complex and multifaceted phenomenon, as their degree of intensity can vary across constitutional systems, and there are both legal and extra-legal factors that may explain such differences. This thesis argues that constitutional asymmetries provide a flexible model of constitutional design and aims to explore the legal factors that are most likely to explain the different degrees of constitutional asymmetry in divided multi-tiered systems. To this end, the research adopts a qualitative methodology, i.e., Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), which allows an understanding of whether a condition or combination of conditions (i.e., the legal factors) determine the outcome (i.e., high, medium, low degree of constitutional asymmetry, or constitutional symmetry). The QCA is conducted on 16 divided multi-tiered systems, and for each case, the degree of constitutional asymmetry was analyzed by employing standardized indexes on subnational autonomy, allowing for a more precise measure of constitutional asymmetry than has previously been provided in the literature. Overall, the research confirms the complex nature of constitutional asymmetries, as the degrees of asymmetries vary substantially not only across systems but also within cases among the dimensions of subnational autonomy. The outcome of the Qualitative Comparative Analysis also confirms a path of complex causality since the different degrees of constitutional asymmetry always depend on several legal factors, that combined produce a low, medium, or high degree of constitutional asymmetry or, conversely, constitutional symmetry.

BIM-FEM model interoperability for the design of a prestressed concrete bridge deck

In questa tesi ho analizzato il passaggio dall'ambiente BIM a quello FEM di un impalcato da ponte a travata precompressa, identificando criteri e applicando una metodologia che hanno consentito lo sviluppo di un modello FEM utilizzabile per l'analisi strutturale. Nella tesi si descrive l'opera e il suo dimensionamento, con l'analisi statica e le verifiche strutturali eseguite sia a mano sia sul modello in ambiente FEM importato dall'ambiente BIM. Oltre a ciò, viene modellata l'opera nella sua interezza ed inserita in un contesto reale. La tesi discute l'interoperabilità tra i due software evidenziando vantaggi (modello geometrico di partenza in ambiente FEM, trasferimento di informazioni inserite in ambiente BIM, riduzione dei tempi di modellazione e inserimento proprietà dei materiali e caratteristiche degli oggetti, inserimento armature di precompressione) e criticità (implementazione manuale di alcuni elementi nel modello geometrico, perdita di alcune informazioni, definizione di alcuni parametri, limitata interoperabilità FEM-BIM) della metodologia applicata.

Study Of The Homogeneity Of Drug Loaded In Polymeric Films Using Near-infrared Chemical Imaging And Split-plot Design.

Split-plot design (SPD) and near-infrared chemical imaging were used to study the homogeneity of the drug paracetamol loaded in films and prepared from mixtures of the biocompatible polymers hydroxypropyl methylcellulose, polyvinylpyrrolidone, and polyethyleneglycol. The study was split into two parts: a partial least-squares (PLS) model was developed for a pixel-to-pixel quantification of the drug loaded into films. Afterwards, a SPD was developed to study the influence of the polymeric composition of films and the two process conditions related to their preparation (percentage of the drug in the formulations and curing temperature) on the homogeneity of the drug dispersed in the polymeric matrix. Chemical images of each formulation of the SPD were obtained by pixel-to-pixel predictions of the drug using the PLS model of the first part, and macropixel analyses were performed for each image to obtain the y-responses (homogeneity parameter). The design was modeled using PLS regression, allowing only the most relevant factors to remain in the final model. The interpretation of the SPD was enhanced by utilizing the orthogonal PLS algorithm, where the y-orthogonal variations in the design were separated from the y-correlated variation.

Viability of using enamel and dentin from bovine origin as a substitute for human counterparts in an intraoral erosion model

This study ascertained whether under dental erosion models that closely mimics the real-life situation enamel and root dentin from bovine origin would be reliable substitutes for human counterparts. Through a 2x2 crossover design, in a first trial, 14 volunteers wore a palatal device containing slabs of bovine and human enamel. Half of the participants ingested (4x daily, for 10 days) orange juice first, crossing over to mineral water, while the remainder received the reverse sequence. In a second trial, volunteers wore devices with slabs of bovine and human root dentin. Except for the duration of each intraoral phase, which lasted 2 rather 10 days, the experiment with root dentin run exactly as for enamel. Dental substrates were analyzed for surface microhardness. Two-way ANOVAs (α=0.05) indicated no difference between the microhardness values recorded for human and bovine enamel (p=0.1350), but bovine root dentin had lower microhardness compared to its human counterpart (p=0.0432). While bovine enamel can reliably substitute its human counterpart in in situ dental erosion models, bovine root dentin does not seem to be a viable alternative to the corresponding human tissue.

Influence of specimens' design and manufacturing process on microtensile bond strength to enamel: laboratory and FEA comparison

This study evaluated the effect of specimens' design and manufacturing process on microtensile bond strength, internal stress distributions (Finite Element Analysis - FEA) and specimens' integrity by means of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Laser Scanning Confocal Microscopy (LCM). Excite was applied to flat enamel surface and a resin composite build-ups were made incrementally with 1-mm increments of Tetric Ceram. Teeth were cut using a diamond disc or a diamond wire, obtaining 0.8 mm² stick-shaped specimens, or were shaped with a Micro Specimen Former, obtaining dumbbell-shaped specimens (n = 10). Samples were randomly selected for SEM and LCM analysis. Remaining samples underwent microtensile test, and results were analyzed with ANOVA and Tukey test. FEA dumbbell-shaped model resulted in a more homogeneous stress distribution. Nonetheless, they failed under lower bond strengths (21.83 ± 5.44 MPa)c than stick-shaped specimens (sectioned with wire: 42.93 ± 4.77 MPaª; sectioned with disc: 36.62 ± 3.63 MPa b), due to geometric irregularities related to manufacturing process, as noted in microscopic analyzes. It could be concluded that stick-shaped, nontrimmed specimens, sectioned with diamond wire, are preferred for enamel specimens as they can be prepared in a less destructive, easier, and more precise way.