Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis:a study of Eastern European stock markets

This paper assesses the extent to which the equity markets of Hungary, Poland the Czech Republic and Russia have become less segmented. Using a variety of tests it is shown there has been a consistent increase in the co-movement of some Eastern European markets and developed markets. Using the variance decompositions from a vector autoregressive representation of returns it is shown that for Poland and Hungary global factors are having an increasing influence on equity returns, suggestive of increased equity market integration. In this paper we model a system of bivariate equity market correlations as a smooth transition logistic trend model in order to establish how rapidly the countries of Eastern Europe are moving away from market segmentation. We find that Hungary is the country which is becoming integrated the most quickly. © 2005 ELsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A cost Malmquist productivity index

This paper develops a productivity index applicable when producers are cost minimisers and input prices are known. The index is inspired by the Malmquist index as extended to productivity measurement. The index developed here is defined in terms of input cost rather than input quantity distance functions. Hence, productivity change is decomposed into overall efficiency and cost technical change. Furthermore, overall efficiency change is decomposed into technical and allocative efficiency change and cost technical change into a part capturing shifts of input quantities and shifts of relative input prices. These decompositions provide a clearer picture of the root sources of productivity change. They are illustrated here in a sample of hospitals; results are computed using non-parametric mathematical programming. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earnings differences between Chinese and Indian wage earners, 1987-2004

This paper is one of the first comprehensive attempts to compare earnings in urban China and India over the recent period. While both economies have grown considerably, we illustrate significant cross-country differences in wage growth since the late 1980s. For this purpose, we make use of comparable datasets, estimate Mincer equations and perform Oaxaca–Blinder decompositions at the mean and at different points of the wage distribution. The initial wage differential in favor of Indian workers, observed in the middle and upper part of the distribution, partly disappears over time. While the 1980s Indian premium is mainly due to higher returns to education and experience, a combination of price and endowment effects explains why Chinese wages have caught up, especially since the mid-1990s. The price effect is only partly explained by the observed convergence in returns to education; the endowment effect is driven by faster increase in education levels in China and significantly accentuates the reversal of the wage gap in favor of this country for the first half of the wage distribution.

Managing performance of organisational units with PIMsoft:a new DEA software

DEA literature continues apace but software has lagged behind. This session uses suitably selected data to present newly developed software which includes many of the most recent DEA models. The software enables the user to address a variety of issues not frequently found in existing DEA software such as: -Assessments under a variety of possible assumptions of returns to scale including NIRS and NDRS; -Scale elasticity computations; -Numerous Input/Output variables and truly unlimited number of assessment units (DMUs) -Panel data analysis -Analysis of categorical data (multiple categories) -Malmquist Index and its decompositions -Computations of Supper efficiency -Automated removal of super-efficient outliers under user-specified criteria; -Graphical presentation of results -Integrated statistical tests

Changes in the comovement of european equity markets

This paper investigates the impact that the removal of exchange controls within major European economies has had on the interdependence of European equity markets. For five years prior to the removal of exchange controls and five years following their removal, we use impulse responses and variance decompositions from vector autoregressions to illustrate that European equity markets have become substantially more integrated after the removal of exchange controls. We undertake further tests that demonstrate that, even if we allow for parallel macroeconomic harmonization, the removal of exchange controls has been a major cause of increased equity market integration within Europe.

Price discovery for Chinese shares cross-listed in multiple markets

In this article we study the relationship between security returns cross-listed on the A share market of China and the H share market at the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK). Most of these securities are also cross-listed on other markets. An important feature of this article is that we focus on the multilateral relationships between all cross-listed markets rather than concentrating only on the bi-lateral relationship between A and Hong Kong H shares. Using the impulse response functions and the variance decompositions from a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) process we show that the returns to the A share market are almost exclusively determined by domestic factors. In contrast, we find that the H share market is influenced by both the A share market within China and foreign stock markets elsewhere in the world. Impulse response functions suggest that innovations to the A share market and the Hong Kong H share market are partly transmitted to each other and to stock markets outside China. We show that liquidity has an important role to play in determining the impact that the home market has on cross-listed variance decompositions. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Decomposition of Boolean Functions – Recognizing a Good Solution by Traces

The problem of sequent two-block decomposition of a Boolean function is regarded in case when a good solution does exist. The problem consists mainly in finding an appropriate weak partition on the set of arguments of the considered Boolean function, which should be decomposable at that partition. A new fast heuristic combinatorial algorithm is offered for solving this task. At first the randomized search for traces of such a partition is fulfilled. The recognized traces are represented by some "triads" - the simplest weak partitions corresponding to non-trivial decompositions. After that the whole sought-for partition is restored from the discovered trace by building a track initialized by the trace and leading to the solution. The results of computer experiments testify the high practical efficiency of the algorithm.

Herz-Type Hardy Spaces for the Dunkl Operator on the Real Line

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 46F12, Secondary 44A15, 44A35

Large scale data processing using MapReduce

As massive data sets become increasingly available, people are facing the problem of how to effectively process and understand these data. Traditional sequential computing models are giving way to parallel and distributed computing models, such as MapReduce, both due to the large size of the data sets and their high dimensionality. This dissertation, as in the same direction of other researches that are based on MapReduce, tries to develop effective techniques and applications using MapReduce that can help people solve large-scale problems. Three different problems are tackled in the dissertation. The first one deals with processing terabytes of raster data in a spatial data management system. Aerial imagery files are broken into tiles to enable data parallel computation. The second and third problems deal with dimension reduction techniques that can be used to handle data sets of high dimensionality. Three variants of the nonnegative matrix factorization technique are scaled up to factorize matrices of dimensions in the order of millions in MapReduce based on different matrix multiplication implementations. Two algorithms, which compute CANDECOMP/PARAFAC and Tucker tensor decompositions respectively, are parallelized in MapReduce based on carefully partitioning the data and arranging the computation to maximize data locality and parallelism.

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

Functional alkali tantalate 2D structures for microelectronics and related applications

Alkali tantalates and niobates, including K(Ta / Nb)O3, Li(Ta / Nb)O3 and Na(Ta / Nb)O3, are a very promising ferroic family of lead-free compounds with perovskite-like structures. Their versatile properties make them potentially interesting for current and future application in microelectronics, photocatalysis, energy and biomedics. Among them potassium tantalate, KTaO3 (KTO), has been raising interest as an alternative for the well-known strontium titanate, SrTiO3 (STO). KTO is a perovskite oxide with a quantum paraelectric behaviour when electrically stimulated and a highly polarizable lattice, giving opportunity to tailor its properties via external or internal stimuli. However problems related with the fabrication of either bulk or 2D nanostructures makes KTO not yet a viable alternative to STO. Within this context and to contribute scientifically to the leverage tantalate based compounds applications, the main goals of this thesis are: i) to produce and characterise thin films of alkali tantalates by chemical solution deposition on rigid Si based substrates, at reduced temperatures to be compatible with Si technology, ii) to fulfil scientific knowledge gaps in these relevant functional materials related to their energetics and ii) to exploit alternative applications for alkali tantalates, as photocatalysis. In what concerns the synthesis attention was given to the understanding of the phase formation in potassium tantalate synthesized via distinct routes, to control the crystallization of desired perovskite structure and to avoid low temperature pyrochlore or K-deficient phases. The phase formation process in alkali tantalates is far from being deeply analysed, as in the case of Pb-containing perovskites, therefore the work was initially focused on the process-phase relationship to identify the driving forces responsible to regulate the synthesis. Comparison of phase formation paths in conventional solid-state reaction and sol-gel method was conducted. The structural analyses revealed that intermediate pyrochlore K2Ta2O6 structure is not formed at any stage of the reaction using conventional solid-state reaction. On the other hand in the solution based processes, as alkoxide-based route, the crystallization of the perovskite occurs through the intermediate pyrochlore phase; at low temperatures pyrochlore is dominant and it is transformed to perovskite at >800 °C. The kinetic analysis carried out by using Johnson-MehlAvrami-Kolmogorow model and quantitative X-ray diffraction (XRD) demonstrated that in sol-gel derived powders the crystallization occurs in two stages: i) at early stage of the reaction dominated by primary nucleation, the mechanism is phase-boundary controlled, and ii) at the second stage the low value of Avrami exponent, n ~ 0.3, does not follow any reported category, thus not permitting an easy identification of the mechanism. Then, in collaboration with Prof. Alexandra Navrotsky group from the University of California at Davis (USA), thermodynamic studies were conducted, using high temperature oxide melt solution calorimetry. The enthalpies of formation of three structures: pyrochlore, perovskite and tetragonal tungsten bronze K6Ta10.8O30 (TTB) were calculated. The enthalpies of formation from corresponding oxides, ∆Hfox, for KTaO3, KTa2.2O6 and K6Ta10.8O30 are -203.63 ± 2.84 kJ/mol, - 358.02 ± 3.74 kJ/mol, and -1252.34 ± 10.10 kJ/mol, respectively, whereas from elements, ∆Hfel, for KTaO3, KTa2.2O6 and K6Ta10.8O30 are -1408.96 ± 3.73 kJ/mol, -2790.82 ± 6.06 kJ/mol, and -13393.04 ± 31.15 kJ/mol, respectively. The possible decomposition reactions of K-deficient KTa2.2O6 pyrochlore to KTaO3 perovskite and Ta2O5 (reaction 1) or to TTB K6Ta10.8O30 and Ta2O5 (reaction 2) were proposed, and the enthalpies were calculated to be 308.79 ± 4.41 kJ/mol and 895.79 ± 8.64 kJ/mol for reaction 1 and reaction 2, respectively. The reactions are strongly endothermic, indicating that these decompositions are energetically unfavourable, since it is unlikely that any entropy term could override such a large positive enthalpy. The energetic studies prove that pyrochlore is energetically more stable phase than perovskite at low temperature. Thus, the local order of the amorphous precipitates drives the crystallization into the most favourable structure that is the pyrochlore one with similar local organization; the distance between nearest neighbours in the amorphous or short-range ordered phase is very close to that in pyrochlore. Taking into account the stoichiometric deviation in KTO system, the selection of the most appropriate fabrication / deposition technique in thin films technology is a key issue, especially concerning complex ferroelectric oxides. Chemical solution deposition has been widely reported as a processing method to growth KTO thin films, but classical alkoxide route allows to crystallize perovskite phase at temperatures >800 °C, while the temperature endurance of platinized Si wafers is ~700 °C. Therefore, alternative diol-based routes, with distinct potassium carboxylate precursors, was developed aiming to stabilize the precursor solution, to avoid using toxic solvents and to decrease the crystallization temperature of the perovskite phase. Studies on powders revealed that in the case of KTOac (solution based on potassium acetate), a mixture of perovskite and pyrochlore phases is detected at temperature as low as 450 °C, and gradual transformation into monophasic perovskite structure occurs as temperature increases up to 750 °C, however the desired monophasic KTaO3 perovskite phase is not achieved. In the case of KTOacac (solution with potassium acetylacetonate), a broad peak is detected at temperatures <650 °C, characteristic of amorphous structures, while at higher temperatures diffraction lines from pyrochlore and perovskite phases are visible and a monophasic perovskite KTaO3 is formed at >700 °C. Infrared analysis indicated that the differences are due to a strong deformation of the carbonate-based structures upon heating. A series of thin films of alkali tantalates were spin-coated onto Si-based substrates using diol-based routes. Interestingly, monophasic perovskite KTaO3 films deposited using KTOacac solution were obtained at temperature as low as 650 °C; films were annealed in rapid thermal furnace in oxygen atmosphere for 5 min with heating rate 30 °C/sec. Other compositions of the tantalum based system as LiTaO3 (LTO) and NaTaO3 (NTO), were successfully derived as well, onto Si substrates at 650 °C as well. The ferroelectric character of LTO at room temperature was proved. Some of dielectric properties of KTO could not be measured in parallel capacitor configuration due to either substrate-film or filmelectrode interfaces. Thus, further studies have to be conducted to overcome this issue. Application-oriented studies have also been conducted; two case studies: i) photocatalytic activity of alkali tantalates and niobates for decomposition of pollutant, and ii) bioactivity of alkali tantalate ferroelectric films as functional coatings for bone regeneration. Much attention has been recently paid to develop new type of photocatalytic materials, and tantalum and niobium oxide based compositions have demonstrated to be active photocatalysts for water splitting due to high potential of the conduction bands. Thus, various powders of alkali tantalates and niobates families were tested as catalysts for methylene blue degradation. Results showed promising activities for some of the tested compounds, and KNbO3 is the most active among them, reaching over 50 % degradation of the dye after 7 h under UVA exposure. However further modifications of powders can improve the performance. In the context of bone regeneration, it is important to have platforms that with appropriate stimuli can support the attachment and direct the growth, proliferation and differentiation of the cells. In lieu of this here we exploited an alternative strategy for bone implants or repairs, based on charged mediating signals for bone regeneration. This strategy includes coating metallic 316L-type stainless steel (316L-SST) substrates with charged, functionalized via electrical charging or UV-light irradiation, ferroelectric LiTaO3 layers. It was demonstrated that the formation of surface calcium phosphates and protein adsorption is considerably enhanced for 316L-SST functionalized ferroelectric coatings. Our approach can be viewed as a set of guidelines for the development of platforms electrically functionalized that can stimulate tissue regeneration promoting direct integration of the implant in the host tissue by bone ingrowth and, hence contributing ultimately to reduce implant failure.

Asymptotic preserving and time diminishing schemes for rarefied gas dynamic

In this work, we introduce a new class of numerical schemes for rarefied gas dynamic problems described by collisional kinetic equations. The idea consists in reformulating the problem using a micro-macro decomposition and successively in solving the microscopic part by using asymptotic preserving Monte Carlo methods. We consider two types of decompositions, the first leading to the Euler system of gas dynamics while the second to the Navier-Stokes equations for the macroscopic part. In addition, the particle method which solves the microscopic part is designed in such a way that the global scheme becomes computationally less expensive as the solution approaches the equilibrium state as opposite to standard methods for kinetic equations which computational cost increases with the number of interactions. At the same time, the statistical error due to the particle part of the solution decreases as the system approach the equilibrium state. This causes the method to degenerate to the sole solution of the macroscopic hydrodynamic equations (Euler or Navier-Stokes) in the limit of infinite number of collisions. In a last part, we will show the behaviors of this new approach in comparisons to standard Monte Carlo techniques for solving the kinetic equation by testing it on different problems which typically arise in rarefied gas dynamic simulations.

Smallest disentangling state spaces for general entangled bipartite quantum states

Entangled quantum states can be given a separable decomposition if we relax the restriction that the local operators be quantum states. Motivated by the construction of classical simulations and local hidden variable models, we construct `smallest' local sets of operators that achieve this. In other words, given an arbitrary bipartite quantum state we construct convex sets of local operators that allow for a separable decomposition, but that cannot be made smaller while continuing to do so. We then consider two further variants of the problem where the local state spaces are required to contain the local quantum states, and obtain solutions for a variety of cases including a region of pure states around the maximally entangled state. The methods involve calculating certain forms of cross norm. Two of the variants of the problem have a strong relationship to theorems on ensemble decompositions of positive operators, and our results thereby give those theorems an added interpretation. The results generalise those obtained in our previous work on this topic [New J. Phys. 17, 093047 (2015)].

Flow around a hemisphere-cylinder at high angle of attack and low Reynolds number. Part I: Experimental and numerical investigation

Three-dimensional Direct Numerical Simulations combined with Particle Image Velocimetry experiments have been performed on a hemisphere-cylinder at Reynolds number 1000 and angle of attack 20◦. At these flow conditions, a pair of vortices, so-called “horn” vortices, are found to be associated with flow separation. In order to understand the highly complex phenomena associated with this fully threedimensional massively separated flow, different structural analysis techniques have been employed: Proper Orthogonal and Dynamic Mode Decompositions, POD and DMD, respectively, as well as criticalpoint theory. A single dominant frequency associated with the von Karman vortex shedding has been identified in both the experimental and the numerical results. POD and DMD modes associated with this frequency were recovered in the analysis. Flow separation was also found to be intrinsically linked to the observed modes. On the other hand, critical-point theory has been applied in order to highlight possible links of the topology patterns over the surface of the body with the computed modes. Critical points and separation lines on the body surface show in detail the presence of different flow patterns in the base flow: a three-dimensional separation bubble and two pairs of unsteady vortices systems, the horn vortices, mentioned before, and the so-called “leeward” vortices. The horn vortices emerge perpendicularly from the body surface at the separation region. On the other hand, the leeward vortices are originated downstream of the separation bubble, as a result of the boundary layer separation. The frequencies associated with these vortical structures have been quantified.

On polynomials with given Hilbert function and applications

Using Macaulay's correspondence we study the family of Artinian Gorenstein local algebras with fixed symmetric Hilbert function decomposition. As an application we give a new lower bound for the dimension of cactus varieties of the third Veronese embedding. We discuss the case of cubic surfaces, where interesting phenomena occur.