Ecucational data mining (EDM) para la determinación de comportamientos en estudiantes de ingeniería en la modalidad virtual de UDE

[ES]En este artículo se describe la experiencia de la aplicación de técnicas de EDM (clustering) a un curso disponible en la plataforma Ude@ de la Universidad de Antioquia. El objetivo es clasificar los patrones de interacción de los estudiantes a partir de la información almacenada en la base de datos de la plataforma Moodle. Para ello, se generan informes sobre el uso de los recursos y la autoevaluación que permiten analizar el comportamiento y los patrones de navegación de los estudiantes durante el uso del LMS (Learning Management System).

Phenothiazine based polymers for energy and data storage application

Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit der Synthese und Charakterisierung von Polymeren mit redox-funktionalen Phenothiazin-Seitenketten. Phenothiazin und seine Derivate sind kleine Redoxeinheiten, deren reversibles Redoxverhalten mit electrochromen Eigenschaften verbunden ist. Das besondere an Phenothiazine ist die Bildung von stabilen Radikalkationen im oxidierten Zustand. Daher können Phenothiazine als bistabile Moleküle agieren und zwischen zwei stabilen Redoxzuständen wechseln. Dieser Schaltprozess geht gleichzeitig mit einer Farbveränderung an her.rnrnIm Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird die Synthese neuartiger Phenothiazin-Polymere mittels radikalischer Polymerisation beschrieben. Phenothiazin-Derivate wurden kovalent an aliphatischen und aromatischen Polymerketten gebunden. Dies erfolgte über zwei unterschiedlichen synthetischen Routen. Die erste Route beinhaltet den Einsatz von Vinyl-Monomeren mit Phenothiazin Funktionalität zur direkten Polymerisation. Die zweite Route verwendet Amin modifizierte Phenothiazin-Derivate zur Funktionalisierung von Polymeren mit Aktivester-Seitenketten in einer polymeranalogen Reaktion. rnrnPolymere mit redox-funktionalen Phenothiazin-Seitenketten sind aufgrund ihrer Elektron-Donor-Eigenschaften geeignete Kandidaten für die Verwendung als Kathodenmaterialien. Zur Überprüfung ihrer Eignung wurden Phenothiazin-Polymere als Elektrodenmaterialien in Lithium-Batteriezellen eingesetzt. Die verwendeten Polymere wiesen gute Kapazitätswerte von circa 50-90 Ah/kg sowie schnelle Aufladezeiten in der Batteriezelle auf. Besonders die Aufladezeiten sind 5-10 mal höher als konventionelle Lithium-Batterien. Im Hinblick auf Anzahl der Lade- und Entladezyklen, erzielten die Polymere gute Werte in den Langzeit-Stabilitätstests. Insgesamt überstehen die Polymere 500 Ladezyklen mit geringen Veränderungen der Anfangswerte bezüglich Ladezeiten und -kapazitäten. Die Langzeit-Stabilität hängt unmittelbar mit der Radikalstabilität zusammen. Eine Stabilisierung der Radikalkationen gelang durch die Verlängerung der Seitenkette am Stickstoffatom des Phenothiazins und der Polymerhauptkette. Eine derartige Alkyl-Substitution erhöht die Radikalstabilität durch verstärkte Wechselwirkung mit dem aromatischen Ring und verbessert somit die Batterieleistung hinsichtlich der Stabilität gegenüber Lade- und Entladezyklen. rnrnDes Weiteren wurde die praktische Anwendung von bistabilen Phenothiazin-Polymeren als Speichermedium für hohe Datendichten untersucht. Dazu wurden dünne Filme des Polymers auf leitfähigen Substraten elektrochemisch oxidiert. Die elektrochemische Oxidation erfolgte mittels Rasterkraftmikroskopie in Kombination mit leitfähigen Mikroskopspitzen. Mittels dieser Technik gelang es, die Oberfläche des Polymers im nanoskaligen Bereich zu oxidieren und somit die lokale Leitfähigkeit zu verändern. Damit konnten unterschiedlich große Muster lithographisch beschrieben und aufgrund der Veränderung ihrer Leitfähigkeit detektiert werden. Der Schreibprozess führte nur zu einer Veränderung der lokalen Leitfähigkeit ohne die topographische Beschaffenheit des Polymerfilms zu beeinflussen. Außerdem erwiesen sich die Muster als besonders stabil sowohl mechanisch als auch über die Zeit.rnrnZum Schluss wurden neue Synthesestrategien entwickelt um mechanisch stabile als auch redox-funktionale Oberflächen zu produzieren. Mit Hilfe der oberflächen-initiierten Atomtransfer-Radikalpolymerisation wurden gepfropfte Polymerbürsten mit redox-funktionalen Phenothiazin-Seitenketten hergestellt und mittels Röntgenmethoden und Rasterkraftmikroskopie analysiert. Eine der Synthesestrategien geht von gepfropften Aktivesterbürsten aus, die anschließend in einem nachfolgenden Schritt mit redox-funktionalen Gruppen modifiziert werden können. Diese Vorgehensweise ist besonders vielversprechend und erlaubt es unterschiedliche funktionelle Gruppen an den Aktivesterbürsten zu verankern. Damit können durch Verwendung von vernetzenden Gruppen neben den Redoxeigenschaften, die mechanische Stabilität solcher Polymerfilme optimiert werden. rn rn

A BAYESIAN SHRINKAGE MODEL FOR INCOMPLETE LONGITUDINAL BINARY DATA WITH APPLICATION TO THE BREAST CANCER PREVENTION TRIAL

We consider inference in randomized studies, in which repeatedly measured outcomes may be informatively missing due to drop out. In this setting, it is well known that full data estimands are not identified unless unverified assumptions are imposed. We assume a non-future dependence model for the drop-out mechanism and posit an exponential tilt model that links non-identifiable and identifiable distributions. This model is indexed by non-identified parameters, which are assumed to have an informative prior distribution, elicited from subject-matter experts. Under this model, full data estimands are shown to be expressed as functionals of the distribution of the observed data. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, we model the distribution of the observed data using a Bayesian shrinkage model. In a simulation study, we compare our approach to a fully parametric and a fully saturated model for the distribution of the observed data. Our methodology is motivated and applied to data from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial.

Index Tracking Using Data-Mining Techniques and Mixed-Binary Linear Programming

Index tracking has become one of the most common strategies in asset management. The index-tracking problem consists of constructing a portfolio that replicates the future performance of an index by including only a subset of the index constituents in the portfolio. Finding the most representative subset is challenging when the number of stocks in the index is large. We introduce a new three-stage approach that at first identifies promising subsets by employing data-mining techniques, then determines the stock weights in the subsets using mixed-binary linear programming, and finally evaluates the subsets based on cross validation. The best subset is returned as the tracking portfolio. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of out-of-sample performance and running times.

New algorithms for automated phylogenetic reconstruction using artificial intelligence and data mining techniques

Academic and industrial research in the late 90s have brought about an exponential explosion of DNA sequence data. Automated expert systems are being created to help biologists to extract patterns, trends and links from this ever-deepening ocean of information. Two such systems aimed on retrieving and subsequently utilizing phylogenetically relevant information have been developed in this dissertation, the major objective of which was to automate the often difficult and confusing phylogenetic reconstruction process. ^ Popular phylogenetic reconstruction methods, such as distance-based methods, attempt to find an optimal tree topology (that reflects the relationships among related sequences and their evolutionary history) by searching through the topology space. Various compromises between the fast (but incomplete) and exhaustive (but computationally prohibitive) search heuristics have been suggested. An intelligent compromise algorithm that relies on a flexible “beam” search principle from the Artificial Intelligence domain and uses the pre-computed local topology reliability information to adjust the beam search space continuously is described in the second chapter of this dissertation. ^ However, sometimes even a (virtually) complete distance-based method is inferior to the significantly more elaborate (and computationally expensive) maximum likelihood (ML) method. In fact, depending on the nature of the sequence data in question either method might prove to be superior. Therefore, it is difficult (even for an expert) to tell a priori which phylogenetic reconstruction method—distance-based, ML or maybe maximum parsimony (MP)—should be chosen for any particular data set. ^ A number of factors, often hidden, influence the performance of a method. For example, it is generally understood that for a phylogenetically “difficult” data set more sophisticated methods (e.g., ML) tend to be more effective and thus should be chosen. However, it is the interplay of many factors that one needs to consider in order to avoid choosing an inferior method (potentially a costly mistake, both in terms of computational expenses and in terms of reconstruction accuracy.) ^ Chapter III of this dissertation details a phylogenetic reconstruction expert system that selects a superior proper method automatically. It uses a classifier (a Decision Tree-inducing algorithm) to map a new data set to the proper phylogenetic reconstruction method. ^

A Comparison of different Uncertainty Activation Cross-Section Data Libraries: Application to the Prediction Uncertainty in Tritium Production

T actitivity in LiPb LiPb mock-up material irradiated in Frascati: measurement and MCNP results

Generation of Fission Yield covariance data and application to Fission Pulse Decay Heat calculations

Generation of Fission Yield covariance data and application to Fission Pulse Decay Heat calculations

Event-based time series data preprocessing: application to traffic flow time series

Traffic flow time series data are usually high dimensional and very complex. Also they are sometimes imprecise and distorted due to data collection sensor malfunction. Additionally, events like congestion caused by traffic accidents add more uncertainty to real-time traffic conditions, making traffic flow forecasting a complicated task. This article presents a new data preprocessing method targeting multidimensional time series with a very high number of dimensions and shows its application to real traffic flow time series from the California Department of Transportation (PEMS web site). The proposed method consists of three main steps. First, based on a language for defining events in multidimensional time series, mTESL, we identify a number of types of events in time series that corresponding to either incorrect data or data with interference. Second, each event type is restored utilizing an original method that combines real observations, local forecasted values and historical data. Third, an exponential smoothing procedure is applied globally to eliminate noise interference and other random errors so as to provide good quality source data for future work.

Towards a model-driven engineering approach of data mining

Nowadays, data mining is based on low-level specications of the employed techniques typically bounded to a specic analysis platform. Therefore, data mining lacks a modelling architecture that allows analysts to consider it as a truly software-engineering process. Here, we propose a model-driven approach based on (i) a conceptual modelling framework for data mining, and (ii) a set of model transformations to automatically generate both the data under analysis (via data-warehousing technology) and the analysis models for data mining (tailored to a specic platform). Thus, analysts can concentrate on the analysis problem via conceptual data-mining models instead of low-level programming tasks related to the underlying-platform technical details. These tasks are now entrusted to the model-transformations scaffolding.

Integrating the development of data mining and data warehouses via model-driven engineering

Data mining is one of the most important analysis techniques to automatically extract knowledge from large amount of data. Nowadays, data mining is based on low-level specifications of the employed techniques typically bounded to a specific analysis platform. Therefore, data mining lacks a modelling architecture that allows analysts to consider it as a truly software-engineering process. Bearing in mind this situation, we propose a model-driven approach which is based on (i) a conceptual modelling framework for data mining, and (ii) a set of model transformations to automatically generate both the data under analysis (that is deployed via data-warehousing technology) and the analysis models for data mining (tailored to a specific platform). Thus, analysts can concentrate on understanding the analysis problem via conceptual data-mining models instead of wasting efforts on low-level programming tasks related to the underlying-platform technical details. These time consuming tasks are now entrusted to the model-transformations scaffolding. The feasibility of our approach is shown by means of a hypothetical data-mining scenario where a time series analysis is required.