The Soviet Union, Finland and the Cold War : The Finnish Card in Soviet Foreign Policy, 1956-1959

From the Soviet point of view the actual substance of Soviet-Finnish relations in the second half of 1950s clearly differed from the contemporary and later public image, based on friendship and confidence rhetoric. As the polarization between the right and the left became more underlined in Finland in the latter half of the 1950s, the criticism towards the Soviet Union became stronger, and the USSR feared that this development would have influence on Finnish foreign policy. From the Soviet point of view, the security commitments of FCMA-treaty needed additional guarantees through control of Finnish domestic politics and economic relations, especially during international crises. In relation to Scandinavia, Finland was, from the Soviet point of view, the model country of friendship or neutrality policy. The influence of the Second Berlin Crisis or the Soviet-Finnish Night Frost Crisis in 1958-1959 to Soviet policy towards Scandinavia needs to be observed from this point of view. The Soviet Union used Finland as a tool, in agreement with Finnish highest political leadership, for weakening of the NATO membership of Norway and Denmark, and for maintaining Swedish non-alliance. The Finnish interest to EFTA membership in the summer of 1959, at the same time with the Scandinavian countries, seems to have caused a panic reaction in the USSR, as the Soviets feared that these economic arrangements would reverse the political advantages the country had received in Finland after the Night Frost Crisis. Together with history of events, this study observes the interaction of practical interests and ideologies, both in individuals and in decision-making organizations. The necessary social and ideological reforms in the Soviet Union after 1956 had influence both on the legitimacy of the regime, and led to contradictions in the argumentation of Soviet foreign policy. This was observed both in the own camp as well as in the West. Also, in Finland a breakthrough took place in the late 1950's: as the so-called counter reaction lost to the K-line, "a special relationship" developed with the Soviet Union. As a consequence of the Night Frost Crisis the Soviet relationship became a factor decisively defining the limits of domestic politics in Finland, a part of Finnish domestic political argumentation. Understood from this basis, finlandization is not, even from the viewpoint of international relations, a special case, but a domestic political culture formed by the relationship between a dominant state, a superpower, and a subordinate state, Finland.

European Union and the developing nations' external debt : EU-15's debt policy, 1960–2008

This Master's Thesis defines the debt policy of the current European Union Member States towards the developing nations. Since no official policy for debt exists in the EU, it is defined to include debt practices (loans and debt relief in development cooperation) and debt within the EU development policy framework. This study (1) describes how the issue of external debt appears in the development policy framework, (2) compares EU Member States' given loans and debt relief to grants for the developing nations (1960s to the 2000s), and (3) measures the current orientation in ODA of each EU Member State between grant aid and loan aid using the Grant-Loan Index (GLI). Theoretical aspects include reasons for selecting between loans (Bouchet 1987) and grants (Odedokun 2004, O'Brien and Williams 2007), policy context of the EU (Van Reisen 2007) and the meaning of external debt in the set-up between the North and the South. In terms of history, the events and impact of the colonial period (where loans have originated) are overviewed and compared in light of today's policies. Development assistance statistics are derived from the OECD DAC statistics portal and EU development policy framework documents from the EU portal. Methodologically, the structure of this study is from policy analysis (Barrien 1999, Hill 2008, Berndtson 2008), but it has been modified to fit the needs of studying a non-official policy. EU Member States are divided into three groups by Carbone (2007a), the Big-3, Northern and Southern donors, based on common development assistance characteristics. The Grant-Loan Index is used to compare Carbone's model, which measures quality of aid, to the GLI measuring the structure of aid. Results indicate that EU- 15 countries (active in debt practices) differ in terms of timing, stability and equality of debt practices in the long-term (1960s to the 2000s). In terms of current practices, (2000-2008), it is noted that there lies a disparity between the actual practices and the way in which external debt is represented in the development policy framework, although debt practices form a relevant portion of total ODA practices for many EU-15 Member States, the issue itself plays a minor role in development policy documents. Carbone’s group division applies well to the Grant – Loan Index’s results, indicating that countries with similar development policy behaviour have similarities in debt policy behaviour, with one exception: Greece. On the basis of this study, it is concluded that EU development policy framework content in terms of external debt and debt practices are not congruent. The understanding of this disparity between the policy outline and differences in long-term practices is relevant in both, reaching the UN’s Millennium Development Goals, and in the actual process of developing development aid.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Credit Default Swaps and Insurance: Against the Potts Opinion

Little attention has been given to the possibility that CDS transactions might be construed as insurance contracts in English law. This article challenges the widespread “Potts opinion”, which states that CDSs are not insurance, because they do not require the protection buyer to sustain a loss or to have an insurable interest in the subject matter. CDSs often do provide protection against loss that the buyer is exposed to; loss indemnity is not a necessary characterisation of an insurance contract; insurable interest does not form part of the definition of insurance, but is an additional requirement of valid insurance; and what matters is the substance not the form of the contract. The situation in the US and Australia is also briefly considered.

A heuristic clustering algorithm using union of overlapping pattern-cells

Relative geometric arrangements of the sample points, with reference to the structure of the imbedding space, produce clusters. Hence, if each sample point is imagined to acquire a volume of a small M-cube (called pattern-cell), depending on the ranges of its (M) features and number (N) of samples; then overlapping pattern-cells would indicate naturally closer sample-points. A chain or blob of such overlapping cells would mean a cluster and separate clusters would not share a common pattern-cell between them. The conditions and an analytic method to find such an overlap are developed. A simple, intuitive, nonparametric clustering procedure, based on such overlapping pattern-cells is presented. It may be classified as an agglomerative, hierarchical, linkage-type clustering procedure. The algorithm is fast, requires low storage and can identify irregular clusters. Two extensions of the algorithm, to separate overlapping clusters and to estimate the nature of pattern distributions in the sample space, are also indicated.

Application of nonlinear filtering to credit risk

Merton's model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the `Expectation-Maximization' method for estimating parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Promoting the European Union : Attitudinal stance adjectives in three genres of EU communication to the public

Målet för Pro Gradu-avhandlingen är att undersöka hur Europeiska unionen (EU) marknadsförs genom användningen av värderande adjektiv i tre genrer av skriftlig kommunikation från EU till medlemsstaternas medborgare. Undersökningen är inriktad på tre forskningsfrågor: hur marknadsföringen av EU syns i användningen av värderande adjektiv i de tre genrerna, vilka de centrala skillnaderna mellan de tre genrerna är gällande användningen av värderande adjektiv, samt på vilket sätt texterna uppfyller sitt kommunikativa syfte, nämligen att informera allmänheten om EU:s verksamhet och marknadsföra EU som en giltig och handlingskraftig union. Den teoretiska ramen för undersökningen grundar sig på genreanalys, kommunikationsteori och teorier om hur författarens värdering (stance) syns i texter. Skillnaden mellan genre, texttyp och register diskuteras, och teoridelen redogör även för begreppet diskurssamfund, dvs. den grupp personer som i ett yrkesmässigt eller institutionellt sammanhang producerar och använder sig av en genre enligt dess kommunikativa konventioner. Materialet behandlas även utgående från Egon Werlichs indelning av texttyper i deskriptiva, narrativa, expositära, argumentativa och instruktiva texter. Materialet består av tre delar som representerar var sin genre: informationsbroschyrer, pressmeddelanden och den Allmänna rapporten om Europeiska unionens verksamhet, som utges av EU varje år. Storleken på varje del av materialet varierar mellan 20 000 - 30 000 ord. Materialet har valts på basis av de teman texterna behandlar, och kriterierna för urvalet är bl.a. att texterna behandlar ämnen som har anknytning till medborgarnas vardag, att de är riktade till allmänheten, och att de finns tillgängliga på Internet. Undersökningen är genomförd som en kvalitativ genreanalys. Materialet analyseras först utgående från kontexten och det samhälleliga sammanhanget enligt Vijay K. Bhatias metodik för analys av obekanta genrer. Det kommunikativa syftet, författaren och den tilltänkta läsarkretsen, dvs. målgruppen för kommunikationen, fastställs. Värderande adjektiv som uttrycker författarens hållning har plockats ur texten manuellt och med hjälp av konkordansprogrammet AntConc, och placerats i 16 kategorier enligt de värden de uttrycker. Varje genre analyseras sedan språkligt med utgångspunkt i adjektivlistorna, varefter resultaten jämförs med varandra. Undersökningen visar att pressmeddelandena innehåller det största antalet värderande adjektiv, medan informationsbroschyrerna innehåller det minsta antalet värderande adjektiv. Den Allmänna rapporten om Europeiska unionens verksamhet innehåller delar med tätt förekommande värderande adjektiv, i synnerhet i stycken som behandlar mer kontroversiella ämnen. I alla tre genrer sammanfaller ett högt antal värderande adjektiv med argumentativ text, och argumentativ text förekommer främst då ämnet som diskuteras rör sig på en mer abstrakt nivå, t.ex. om EU:s värderingar och grundläggande principer, eller då texten behandlar sådan politik som delar allmänhetens uppfattning. För EU utgör alla tre genrer viktiga kanaler för kommunikationen till medlemsstaternas medborgare, och EU kan genom sitt informationsmaterial och sina officiella publikationer informera om, förklara och marknadsföra sin verksamhet på ett sätt som avser att upprätthålla och förbättra EU:s image. Utarbetandet av lämpliga texter är ändå krävande på grund av den heterogena målgruppen, och det är en utmaning i sig att få fram rätt budskap bland det stora utbudet information som finns tillgängligt på Internet.

Migration-Development Nexus in the Malawian Health Sector: European Union Blue Card – circular migration for development?

The European Union has agreed on implementing the Policy Coherence for Development (PCD) principle in all policy sectors that are likely to have a direct impact on developing countries. This is in order to take account of and support the EU development cooperation objectives and the achievement of the internationally agreed Millennium Development Goals. The common EU migration policy and the newly introduced EU Blue Card directive present an example of the implementation of the principle in practice: the directive is not only designed to respond to the occurring EU labour demand by attracting highly skilled third-country professionals, but is also intended to contribute to the development objectives of the migrant-sending developing countries, primarily through the tool of circular migration and the consequent skills transfers. My objective in this study is to assess such twofold role of the EU Blue Card and to explore the idea that migration could be harnessed for the benefit of development in conformity with the notion that the two form a positive nexus. Seeing that the EU Blue Card fails to differentiate the most vulnerable countries and sectors from those that are in a better position to take advantage of the global migration flows, the developmental consequences of the directive must be accounted for even in the most severe settings. Accordingly, my intention is to question whether circular migration, as claimed, could address the problem of brain drain in the Malawian health sector, which has witnessed an excessive outflow of its professionals to the UK during the past decade. In order to assess the applicability, likelihood and relevance of circular migration and consequent skills transfers for development in the Malawian context, a field study of a total of 23 interviews with local health professionals was carried out in autumn 2010. The selected approach not only allows me to introduce a developing country perspective to the on-going discussion at the EU level, but also enables me to assess the development dimension of the EU Blue Card and the intended PCD principle through a local lens. Thus these interviews and local viewpoints are at the very heart of this study. Based on my findings from the field, the propensity of the EU Blue Card to result in circular migration and to address the persisting South-North migratory flows as well as the relevance of skills transfers can be called to question. This is as due to the bias in its twofold role the directive overlooks the importance of the sending country circumstances, which are known to determine any developmental outcomes of migration, and assumes that circular migration alone could bring about immediate benefits. Without initial emphasis on local conditions, however, positive outcomes for vulnerable countries such as Malawi are ever more distant. Indeed it seems as if the EU internal interests in migration policy forbid the fulfilment of the PCD principle and diminish the attempt to harness migration for development to bare rhetoric.