950 resultados para comprehensive model


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Industrial and domestic sewage effluents have been found to cause reproductive disorders in wild fish, often as a result of the interference of compounds in the effluents with the endocrine system. This thesis describes laboratory-based exposure experiments and a field survey that were conducted with juveniles of the three-spined stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus. This small teleost is a common fish in Swedish coastal waters and was chosen as an alternative to non-native test species commonly used in endocrine disruption studies, which allows the comparison of field data with results from laboratory experiments. The aim of this thesis was to elucidate 1) if genetic sex determination and differentiation can be disturbed by natural and synthetic steroid hormones and 2) whether this provides an endpoint for the detection of endocrine disruption, 3) to evaluate the applicability of specific estrogen- and androgen-inducible marker proteins in juvenile three-spined sticklebacks, 4) to investigate whether estrogenic and/or androgenic endocrine disrupting activity can be detected in effluents from Swedish pulp mills and domestic sewage treatment plants and 5) whether such activity can be detected in coastal waters receiving these effluents. Laboratory exposure experiments found juvenile three-spined sticklebacks to be sensitive to water-borne estrogenic and androgenic steroid substances. Intersex – the co-occurrence of ovarian and testicular tissue in gonads – was induced by 17β-estradiol (E2), 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), 17α-methyltestosterone (MT) and 5α-dihydrotestosterone (DHT). The first two weeks after hatching was the phase of highest sensitivity. MT was ambivalent by simultaneously eliciting masculinizing and feminizing effects. When applying a DNA-based method for genetic sex identification, it was found that application of MT only during the first two weeks after hatching caused total and apparently irreversible development of testis in genetic females. E2 caused gonad type reversal from male to female. E2 and EE2 induced vitellogenin - the estrogen-responsive yolk precursor protein, while DHT and MT induced spiggin – the androgen-responsive glue protein of the stickleback. None of the effluents from two pulp mills and two domestic sewage treatment plants had any estrogenic or androgenic activity. Juvenile three-spined sticklebacks were collected during four subsequent summers at the Swedish Baltic Sea coast in recipients of effluents from pulp mills and a domestic sewage treatment plant as well as remote reference sites. No sings of endocrine disruption were observed at any site, when studying gonad development or marker proteins, except for a deviation of sex ratios at a reference site. The three-spined stickleback – with focus on the juvenile stage – was found to be a sensitive species suitable for the study of estrogenic and androgenic endocrine disruption.

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In this work a multidisciplinary study of the December 26th, 2004 Sumatra earthquake has been carried out. We have investigated both the effect of the earthquake on the Earth rotation and the stress field variations associated with the seismic event. In the first part of the work we have quantified the effects of a water mass redistribution associated with the propagation of a tsunami wave on the Earth’s pole path and on the length-of-day (LOD) and applied our modeling results to the tsunami following the 2004 giant Sumatra earthquake. We compared the result of our simulations on the instantaneous rotational axis variations with some preliminary instrumental evidences on the pole path perturbation (which has not been confirmed yet) registered just after the occurrence of the earthquake, which showed a step-like discontinuity that cannot be attributed to the effect of a seismic dislocation. Our results show that the perturbation induced by the tsunami on the instantaneous rotational pole is characterized by a step-like discontinuity, which is compatible with the observations but its magnitude turns out to be almost one hundred times smaller than the detected one. The LOD variation induced by the water mass redistribution turns out to be not significant because the total effect is smaller than current measurements uncertainties. In the second part of this work of thesis we modeled the coseismic and postseismic stress evolution following the Sumatra earthquake. By means of a semi-analytical, viscoelastic, spherical model of global postseismic deformation and a numerical finite-element approach, we performed an analysis of the stress diffusion following the earthquake in the near and far field of the mainshock source. We evaluated the stress changes due to the Sumatra earthquake by projecting the Coulomb stress over the sequence of aftershocks taken from various catalogues in a time window spanning about two years and finally analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern. The analysis performed with the semi-analytical and the finite-element modeling gives a complex picture of the stress diffusion, in the area under study, after the Sumatra earthquake. We believe that the results obtained with the analytical method suffer heavily for the restrictions imposed, on the hypocentral depths of the aftershocks, in order to obtain the convergence of the harmonic series of the stress components. On the contrary we imposed no constraints on the numerical method so we expect that the results obtained give a more realistic description of the stress variations pattern.

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This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

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The atmosphere is a global influence on the movement of heat and humidity between the continents, and thus significantly affects climate variability. Information about atmospheric circulation are of major importance for the understanding of different climatic conditions. Dust deposits from maar lakes and dry maars from the Eifel Volcanic Field (Germany) are therefore used as proxy data for the reconstruction of past aeolian dynamics.rnrnIn this thesis past two sediment cores from the Eifel region are examined: the core SM3 from Lake Schalkenmehren and the core DE3 from the Dehner dry maar. Both cores contain the tephra of the Laacher See eruption, which is dated to 12,900 before present. Taken together the cores cover the last 60,000 years: SM3 the Holocene and DE3 the marine isotope stages MIS-3 and MIS-2, respectively. The frequencies of glacial dust storm events and their paleo wind direction are detected by high resolution grain size and provenance analysis of the lake sediments. Therefore two different methods are applied: geochemical measurements of the sediment using µXRF-scanning and the particle analysis method RADIUS (rapid particle analysis of digital images by ultra-high-resolution scanning of thin sections).rnIt is shown that single dust layers in the lake sediment are characterized by an increased content of aeolian transported carbonate particles. The limestone-bearing Eifel-North-South zone is the most likely source for the carbonate rich aeolian dust in the lake sediments of the Dehner dry maar. The dry maar is located on the western side of the Eifel-North-South zone. Thus, carbonate rich aeolian sediment is most likely to be transported towards the Dehner dry maar within easterly winds. A methodology is developed which limits the detection to the aeolian transported carbonate particles in the sediment, the RADIUS-carbonate module.rnrnIn summary, during the marine isotope stage MIS-3 the storm frequency and the east wind frequency are both increased in comparison to MIS-2. These results leads to the suggestion that atmospheric circulation was affected by more turbulent conditions during MIS-3 in comparison to the more stable atmospheric circulation during the full glacial conditions of MIS-2.rnThe results of the investigations of the dust records are finally evaluated in relation a study of atmospheric general circulation models for a comprehensive interpretation. Here, AGCM experiments (ECHAM3 and ECHAM4) with different prescribed SST patterns are used to develop a synoptic interpretation of long-persisting east wind conditions and of east wind storm events, which are suggested to lead to an enhanced accumulation of sediment being transported by easterly winds to the proxy site of the Dehner dry maar.rnrnThe basic observations made on the proxy record are also illustrated in the 10 m-wind vectors in the different model experiments under glacial conditions with different prescribed sea surface temperature patterns. Furthermore, the analysis of long-persisting east wind conditions in the AGCM data shows a stronger seasonality under glacial conditions: all the different experiments are characterized by an increase of the relative importance of the LEWIC during spring and summer. The different glacial experiments consistently show a shift from a long-lasting high over the Baltic Sea towards the NW, directly above the Scandinavian Ice Sheet, together with contemporary enhanced westerly circulation over the North Atlantic.rnrnThis thesis is a comprehensive analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns during the last glacial period. It has been possible to reconstruct important elements of the glacial paleo climate in Central Europe. While the proxy data from sediment cores lead to a binary signal of the wind direction changes (east versus west wind), a synoptic interpretation using atmospheric circulation models is successful. This shows a possible distribution of high and low pressure areas and thus the direction and strength of wind fields which have the capacity to transport dust. In conclusion, the combination of numerical models, to enhance understanding of processes in the climate system, with proxy data from the environmental record is the key to a comprehensive approach to paleo climatic reconstruction.rn

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The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.

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This study aims at a comprehensive understanding of the effects of aerosol-cloud interactions and their effects on cloud properties and climate using the chemistry-climate model EMAC. In this study, CCN activation is regarded as the dominant driver in aerosol-cloud feedback loops in warm clouds. The CCN activation is calculated prognostically using two different cloud droplet nucleation parameterizations, the STN and HYB CDN schemes. Both CDN schemes account for size and chemistry effects on the droplet formation based on the same aerosol properties. The calculation of the solute effect (hygroscopicity) is the main difference between the CDN schemes. The kappa-method is for the first time incorporated into Abdul-Razzak and Ghan activation scheme (ARG) to calculate hygroscopicity and critical supersaturation of aerosols (HYB), and the performance of the modied scheme is compared with the osmotic coefficient model (STN), which is the standard in the ARG scheme. Reference simulations (REF) with the prescribed cloud droplet number concentration have also been carried out in order to understand the effects of aerosol-cloud feedbacks. In addition, since the calculated cloud coverage is an important determinant of cloud radiative effects and is influencing the nucleation process two cloud cover parameterizations (i.e., a relative humidity threshold; RH-CLC and a statistical cloud cover scheme; ST-CLC) have been examined together with the CDN schemes, and their effects on the simulated cloud properties and relevant climate parameters have been investigated. The distinct cloud droplet spectra show strong sensitivity to aerosol composition effects on cloud droplet formation in all particle sizes, especially for the Aitken mode. As Aitken particles are the major component of the total aerosol number concentration and CCN, and are most sensitive to aerosol chemical composition effect (solute effect) on droplet formation, the activation of Aitken particles strongly contribute to total cloud droplet formation and thereby providing different cloud droplet spectra. These different spectra influence cloud structure, cloud properties, and climate, and show regionally varying sensitivity to meteorological and geographical condition as well as the spatiotemporal aerosol properties (i.e., particle size, number, and composition). The changes responding to different CDN schemes are more pronounced at lower altitudes than higher altitudes. Among regions, the subarctic regions show the strongest changes, as the lower surface temperature amplifies the effects of the activated aerosols; in contrast, the Sahara desert, where is an extremely dry area, is less influenced by changes in CCN number concentration. The aerosol-cloud coupling effects have been examined by comparing the prognostic CDN simulations (STN, HYB) with the reference simulation (REF). Most pronounced effects are found in the cloud droplet number concentration, cloud water distribution, and cloud radiative effect. The aerosol-cloud coupling generally increases cloud droplet number concentration; this decreases the efficiency of the formation of weak stratiform precipitation, and increases the cloud water loading. These large-scale changes lead to larger cloud cover and longer cloud lifetime, and contribute to high optical thickness and strong cloud cooling effects. This cools the Earth's surface, increases atmospheric stability, and reduces convective activity. These changes corresponding to aerosol-cloud feedbacks are also differently simulated depending on the cloud cover scheme. The ST-CLC scheme is more sensitive to aerosol-cloud coupling, since this scheme uses a tighter linkage of local dynamics and cloud water distributions in cloud formation process than the RH-CLC scheme. For the calculated total cloud cover, the RH-CLC scheme simulates relatively similar pattern to observations than the ST-CLC scheme does, but the overall properties (e.g., total cloud cover, cloud water content) in the RH simulations are overestimated, particularly over ocean. This is mainly originated from the difference in simulated skewness in each scheme: the RH simulations calculate negatively skewed distributions of cloud cover and relevant cloud water, which is similar to that of the observations, while the ST simulations yield positively skewed distributions resulting in lower mean values than the RH-CLC scheme does. The underestimation of total cloud cover over ocean, particularly over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) relates to systematic defficiency of the prognostic calculation of skewness in the current set-ups of the ST-CLC scheme.rnOverall, the current EMAC model set-ups perform better over continents for all combinations of the cloud droplet nucleation and cloud cover schemes. To consider aerosol-cloud feedbacks, the HYB scheme is a better method for predicting cloud and climate parameters for both cloud cover schemes than the STN scheme. The RH-CLC scheme offers a better simulation of total cloud cover and the relevant parameters with the HYB scheme and single-moment microphysics (REF) than the ST-CLC does, but is not very sensitive to aerosol-cloud interactions.

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QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY / PRINCIPLES: Interest groups advocate centre-specific outcome data as a useful tool for patients in choosing a hospital for their treatment and for decision-making by politicians and the insurance industry. Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) requires significant infrastructure and represents a cost-intensive procedure. It therefore qualifies as a prime target for such a policy. METHODS: We made use of the comprehensive database of the Swiss Blood Stem Cells Transplant Group (SBST) to evaluate potential use of mortality rates. Nine institutions reported a total of 4717 HSCT - 1427 allogeneic (30.3%), 3290 autologous (69.7%) - in 3808 patients between the years 1997 and 2008. Data were analysed for survival- and transplantation-related mortality (TRM) at day 100 and at 5 years. RESULTS: The data showed marked and significant differences between centres in unadjusted analyses. These differences were absent or marginal when the results were adjusted for disease, year of transplant and the EBMT risk score (a score incorporating patient age, disease stage, time interval between diagnosis and transplantation, and, for allogeneic transplants, donor type and donor-recipient gender combination) in a multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate comparable quality among centres in Switzerland. They show that comparison of crude centre-specific outcome data without adjustment for the patient mix may be misleading. Mandatory data collection and systematic review of all cases within a comprehensive quality management system might, in contrast, serve as a model to ascertain the quality of other cost-intensive therapies in Switzerland.

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ThioTEPA, an alkylating agent with anti-tumor activity, has been used as an effective anticancer drug since the 1950s. However, a complete understanding of how its alkylating activity relates to clinical efficacy has not been achieved, the total urinary excretion of thioTEPA and its metabolites is not resolved, and the mechanism of formation of the potentially toxic metabolites S-carboxymethylcysteine (SCMC) and thiodiglycolic acid (TDGA) remains unclear. In this study, the metabolism of thioTEPA in a mouse model was comprehensively investigated using ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray ionization quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-ESI-QTOFMS) based-metabolomics. The nine metabolites identified in mouse urine suggest that thioTEPA underwent ring-opening, N-dechloroethylation, and conjugation reactions in vivo. SCMC and TDGA, two downstream thioTEPA metabolites, were produced from thioTEPA from two novel metabolites 1,2,3-trichloroTEPA (VII) and dechloroethyltrichloroTEPA (VIII). SCMC and TDGA excretion were increased about 4-fold and 2-fold, respectively, in urine following the thioTEPA treatment. The main mouse metabolites of thioTEPA in vivo were TEPA (II), monochloroTEPA (III) and thioTEPA-mercapturate (IV). In addition, five thioTEPA metabolites were detected in serum and all shared similar disposition. Although thioTEPA has a unique chemical structure which is not maintained in the majority of its metabolites, metabolomic analysis of its biotransformation greatly contributed to the investigation of thioTEPA metabolism in vivo, and provides useful information to understand comprehensively the pharmacological activity and potential toxicity of thioTEPA in the clinic.

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OBJECTIVE: To describe a new disaggregate surveillance system covering key diagnosed sexually transmitted infections in a UK locality. METHODS: The Avon System for Surveillance of Sexually Transmitted Infections (ASSIST) collects computerised person- and episode-based information about laboratory-diagnosed sexually transmitted infections from genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics, the Avon Brook Clinic, and the Health Protection Agency and trust laboratories in primary care trusts in Avon. The features of the system are illustrated here, by describing chlamydia-testing patterns according to the source of test, age and sex, and by mapping the distribution of chlamydia across Bristol, UK. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2004, there were 821,685 records of tests for sexually transmitted infections, with 23,542 positive results. The proportion of tests and positive results for chlamydia and gonorrhoea sent from general practice increased over time. Most chlamydia tests in both GUM and non-specialist settings were performed on women aged >25 years, but positivity rates were highest in women aged <25 years. The positivity rate remained stable between 2000 and 2004. Including data from all diagnostic settings, chlamydia rates were about twice as high as those estimated only from genitourinary clinic cases. CONCLUSIONS: The ASSIST model could be a promising new tool for planning and measuring sexual health services in England if it can become sustainable and provide more timely data using fewer resources. Collecting denominator data and including infections diagnosed in primary care are essential for meaningful surveillance.

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Drug-induced respiratory depression is a common side effect of the agents used in anesthesia practice to provide analgesia and sedation. Depression of the ventilatory drive in the spontaneously breathing patient can lead to severe cardiorespiratory events and it is considered a primary cause of morbidity. Reliable predictions of respiratory inhibition in the clinical setting would therefore provide a valuable means to improve the safety of drug delivery. Although multiple studies investigated the regulation of breathing in man both in the presence and absence of ventilatory depressant drugs, a unified description of respiratory pharmacodynamics is not available. This study proposes a mathematical model of human metabolism and cardiorespiratory regulation integrating several isolated physiological and pharmacological aspects of acute drug-induced ventilatory depression into a single theoretical framework. The description of respiratory regulation has a parsimonious yet comprehensive structure with substantial predictive capability. Simulations relative to the synergistic interaction of the hypercarbic and hypoxic respiratory drive and the global effect of drugs on the control of breathing are in good agreement with published experimental data. Besides providing clinically relevant predictions of respiratory depression, the model can also serve as a test bed to investigate issues of drug tolerability and dose finding/control under non-steady-state conditions.

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For a fluid dynamics experimental flow measurement technique, particle image velocimetry (PIV) provides significant advantages over other measurement techniques in its field. In contrast to temperature and pressure based probe measurements or other laser diagnostic techniques including laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and phase Doppler particle analysis (PDPA), PIV is unique due to its whole field measurement capability, non-intrusive nature, and ability to collect a vast amount of experimental data in a short time frame providing both quantitative and qualitative insight. These properties make PIV a desirable measurement technique for studies encompassing a broad range of fluid dynamics applications. However, as an optical measurement technique, PIV also requires a substantial technical understanding and application experience to acquire consistent, reliable results. Both a technical understanding of particle image velocimetry and practical application experience are gained by applying a planar PIV system at Michigan Technological University’s Combustion Science Exploration Laboratory (CSEL) and Alternative Fuels Combustion Laboratory (AFCL). Here a PIV system was applied to non-reacting and reacting gaseous environments to make two component planar PIV as well as three component stereographic PIV flow field velocity measurements in conjunction with chemiluminescence imaging in the case of reacting flows. This thesis outlines near surface flow field characteristics in a tumble strip lined channel, three component velocity profiles of non-reacting and reacting swirled flow in a swirl stabilized lean condition premixed/prevaporized-fuel model gas turbine combustor operating on methane at 5-7 kW, and two component planar PIV measurements characterizing the AFCL’s 1.1 liter closed combustion chamber under dual fan driven turbulent mixing flow.

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The three-step test is central to the regulation of copyright limitations at the international level. Delineating the room for exemptions with abstract criteria, the three-step test is by far the most important and comprehensive basis for the introduction of national use privileges. It is an essential, flexible element in the international limitation infrastructure that allows national law makers to satisfy domestic social, cultural, and economic needs. Given the universal field of application that follows from the test’s open-ended wording, the provision creates much more breathing space than the more specific exceptions recognized in international copyright law. EC copyright legislation, however, fails to take advantage of the flexibility inherent in the three-step test. Instead of using the international provision as a means to open up the closed EC catalogue of permissible exceptions, offer sufficient breathing space for social, cultural, and economic needs, and enable EC copyright law to keep pace with the rapid development of the Internet, the Copyright Directive 2001/29/EC encourages the application of the three-step test to further restrict statutory exceptions that are often defined narrowly in national legislation anyway. In the current online environment, however, enhanced flexibility in the field of copyright limitations is indispensable. From a social and cultural perspective, the web 2.0 promotes and enhances freedom of expression and information with its advanced search engine services, interactive platforms, and various forms of user-generated content. From an economic perspective, it creates a parallel universe of traditional content providers relying on copyright protection, and emerging Internet industries whose further development depends on robust copyright limita- tions. In particular, the newcomers in the online market – social networking sites, video forums, and virtual worlds – promise a remarkable potential for economic growth that has already attracted the attention of the OECD. Against this background, the time is ripe to debate the introduction of an EC fair use doctrine on the basis of the three-step test. Otherwise, EC copyright law is likely to frustrate important opportunities for cultural, social, and economic development. To lay groundwork for the debate, the differences between the continental European and the Anglo-American approach to copyright limitations (section 1), and the specific merits of these two distinct approaches (section 2), will be discussed first. An analysis of current problems that have arisen under the present dysfunctional EC system (section 3) will then serve as a starting point for proposing an EC fair use doctrine based on the three-step test (section 4). Drawing conclusions, the international dimension of this fair use proposal will be considered (section 5).

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The extracellular matrix molecule tenascin-C (TNC) is a major component of the cancer-specific matrix, and high TNC expression is linked to poor prognosis in several cancers. To provide a comprehensive understanding of TNC's functions in cancer, we established an immune-competent transgenic mouse model of pancreatic β-cell carcinogenesis with varying levels of TNC expression and compared stochastic neuroendocrine tumor formation in abundance or absence of TNC. We show that TNC promotes tumor cell survival, the angiogenic switch, more and leaky vessels, carcinoma progression, and lung micrometastasis. TNC downregulates Dickkopf-1 (DKK1) promoter activity through the blocking of actin stress fiber formation, activates Wnt signaling, and induces Wnt target genes in tumor and endothelial cells. Our results implicate DKK1 downregulation as an important mechanism underlying TNC-enhanced tumor progression through the provision of a proangiogenic tumor microenvironment.

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Getting evidence-based sexual health education activities into schools can be a complicated process. Working models that assist our educational system in the selection, implementation, and maintenance of effective school-based adolescent health programs are needed. Replicating sexual health programs in school-based settings: A model for schools provides a comprehensive and applied approach that engages all of the important stakeholders within a school district. The results from this study hold much potential to inform Texas and the nation about how a coordinated and practical model can assist school districts to increase the use of evidence-based programs addressing teen pregnancy prevention and sexual health issues.

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Objective: The "Hamburg model" designates an integrated care model for severely ill patients with psychotic disorders financed by the health insurance system in accordance with § 140 SGB V.Methods: It comprises comprehensive and long-term treatment within a regional network of the psychosis center of the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE) and private psychiatrists. The treatment model consists of therapeutic assertive community treatment (ACT) provided by a highly specialized treatment team and need-adapted in- and outpatient care.Results and conclusions: The present article summarizes the disease- and treatment-specific rationales for the model development as well as the model structure and treatment contents. The article further summarizes the effectiveness and efficiency results of a study comparing the Hamburg model and treatment as usual (without ACT) within a 12-month follow-up study (ACCESS trial).