Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

A test vehicle for compliance with resilience requirements in index-based e-health systems

Increasingly, national and international governments have a strong mandate to develop national e-health systems to enable delivery of much-needed healthcare services. Research is, therefore, needed into appropriate security and reliance structures for the development of health information systems which must be compliant with governmental and alike obligations. The protection of e-health information security is critical to the successful implementation of any e-health initiative. To address this, this paper proposes a security architecture for index-based e-health environments, according to the broad outline of Australia’s National E-health Strategy and National E-health Transition Authority (NEHTA)’s Connectivity Architecture. This proposal, however, could be equally applied to any distributed, index-based health information system involving referencing to disparate health information systems. The practicality of the proposed security architecture is supported through an experimental demonstration. This successful prototype completion demonstrates the comprehensibility of the proposed architecture, and the clarity and feasibility of system specifications, in enabling ready development of such a system. This test vehicle has also indicated a number of parameters that need to be considered in any national indexed-based e-health system design with reasonable levels of system security. This paper has identified the need for evaluation of the levels of education, training, and expertise required to create such a system.

Interaction in a Paired Speaking Test : the Rater's Perspective

Paired speaking tests are increasingly used in both low-and high-stakes second language assessment contexts. Until recently, very little was known about the way in which raters interpret and apply descriptors relating to interactional competence to a performance that is co-constructed. This book presents a study which explores the interactional features of a paired speaking test that were sailient to raters and the extent to which raters viewed the performance as separable. The study shows that raters use their own frames of reference to interpret descriptors and that they viewed certain features of the performance as mutual accomplishments. The book takes us 'beyond scores', and in doing so, contributes to the growing body of research on paired speaking tests.

Journalism's screen test

I’ve been researching, teaching and writing about journalism for more than two decades. Throughout that time I’ve used feature films to illustrate howthe journalist is represented in popular culture.

Developing a research method to test a new first-order decision making model for the procurement of public sector major infrastructure

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and simultaneously delivering Value for Money (VfM). The paper begins with an update on a key development in a new early/first-order procurement decision making model that deploys production cost/benefit theory and theories concerning transaction costs from the New Institutional Economics, in order to identify a procurement mode that is likely to deliver the best ratio of production costs and transaction costs to production benefits, and therefore deliver superior VfM relative to alternative procurement modes. In doing so, the new procurement model is also able to address the uncertainty concerning the relative merits of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) and non-PPP procurement approaches. The main aim of the paper is to develop competition as a dependent variable/proxy for VfM and a hypothesis (overarching proposition), as well as developing a research method to test the new procurement model. Competition reflects both production costs and benefits (absolute level of competition) and transaction costs (level of realised competition) and is a key proxy for VfM. Using competition as a proxy for VfM, the overarching proposition is given as: When the actual procurement mode matches the predicted (theoretical) procurement mode (informed by the new procurement model), then actual competition is expected to match potential competition (based on actual capacity). To collect data to test this proposition, the research method that is developed in this paper combines a survey and case study approach. More specifically, data collection instruments for the surveys to collect data on actual procurement, actual competition and potential competition are outlined. Finally, plans for analysing this survey data are briefly mentioned, along with noting the planned use of analytical pattern matching in deploying the new procurement model and in order to develop the predicted (theoretical) procurement mode.

Israel's airstrike on Syria's Al-Kibar facility : a test case for the doctrine of pre-emptive self-defence?

This article analyses the legality of Israel’s 2007 airstrike on an alleged Syrian nuclear facility at Al-Kibar—an incident that has been largely overlooked by international lawyers to date. The absence of a threat of imminent attack from Syria means Israel’s military action was not a lawful exercise of anticipatory self-defence. Yet, despite Israel’s clear violation of the prohibition on the use of force there was remarkably little condemnation from other states, suggesting the possibility of growing international support for the doctrine of pre-emptive self-defence. This article argues that the muted international reaction to Israel’s pre-emptive action was the result of political factors, and should not be seen as endorsement of the legality of the airstrike. As such, a lack of opinio juris means the Al-Kibar episode cannot be viewed as extending the scope of the customary international law right of self-defence so as to permit the use of force against non-imminent threats. However, two features of this incident—namely, Israel’s failure to offer any legal justification for its airstrike, and the international community’s apparent lack of concern over legality—are also evident in other recent uses of force in the ‘war on terror’ context. These developments may indicate a shift in state practice involving a downgrading of the role of international law in discussions of the use of force. This may signal a declining perception of the legitimacy of the jus ad bellum, at least in cases involving minor uses of force.