941 resultados para Stores or stock-room keeping.
Resumo:
One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.
Resumo:
Purpose of the study is to evaluate performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend on the performance. Theory of efficient markets states that market prices reflect all available information and that all investors share a common view of future price developments. This view gives little room for the success of active management, but the theory has been disputed – at least the level of efficiency. Behavioral finance has developed theories that identify irrational behavior patterns of investors. For example, investment decisions are not made independent of past market developments. These findings give reason to believe that also the performance of active portfolio management may depend on market developments. Performance of 16 Finnish equity funds is evaluated during the period of 2005 to 2011. In addition two sub periods are constructed, a bull market period and a bear market period. The sub periods are created by joining together the two bull market phases and the two bear market phases of the whole period. This allows for the comparison of the two different market states. Performance of the funds is measured with risk-adjusted performance by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), abnormal return over the CAPM by Jensen (1968), and market timing by Henriksson and Merton (1981). The results suggested that in average the funds are not able to outperform the market portfolio. However, the underperformance was found to be lower than the management fees in average which suggests that portfolio managers are able to do successful investment decisions to some extent. The study revealed substantial dependence on the market trend for all of the measures. The risk-adjusted performance measure suggested that in bear markets active portfolio managers in average are able to beat the market portfolio but not in bull markets. Jensen´s alpha and the market timing model also showed striking differences between the two market states. The results of these two measures were, however, somewhat problematic and reliable conclusions about the performance could not be drawn.
Resumo:
This thesis examines the stock market reactions to quarterly earnings announcements. The study covers the OMX Helsinki 25 index companies for the years 2007–2010. The stock market response to quarterly earnings announcements is tested by employing the event study –methodology and daily stock returns of Finnish listed companies. The thesis provides evidence that stock prices react to earnings announcements that exceed or fall below analyst forecasts. The most liquid stocks earn higher returns around positive earnings news than less traded stocks, which supports the evidence from previous studies. This thesis finds evidence for the authorization to sell stocks short reducing the post–earnings announcement drift induced by negative earnings news. In addition, the market’s reaction to earnings announcements seems to quicken during economic turmoil.
Resumo:
Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.
Resumo:
This thesis examines the application of data envelopment analysis as an equity portfolio selection criterion in the Finnish stock market during period 2001-2011. A sample of publicly traded firms in the Helsinki Stock Exchange is examined in this thesis. The sample covers the majority of the publicly traded firms in the Helsinki Stock Exchange. Data envelopment analysis is used to determine the efficiency of firms using a set of input and output financial parameters. The set of financial parameters consist of asset utilization, liquidity, capital structure, growth, valuation and profitability measures. The firms are divided into artificial industry categories, because of the industry-specific nature of the input and output parameters. Comparable portfolios are formed inside the industry category according to the efficiency scores given by the DEA and the performance of the portfolios is evaluated with several measures. The empirical evidence of this thesis suggests that with certain limitations, data envelopment analysis can successfully be used as portfolio selection criterion in the Finnish stock market when the portfolios are rebalanced at annual frequency according to the efficiency scores given by the data envelopment analysis. However, when the portfolios were rebalanced every two or three years, the results are mixed and inconclusive.
Resumo:
A rapidly growing gaming industry, which specializes on PC, console, online and other games, attracts attention of investors and analysts, who try to understand what drives changes of the gaming industry companies’ stock prices. This master thesis shows the evidence that, besides long-established types of events (M&A and dividend payments), the companies’ stock price changes depend on industry-specific events. I analyzed specific for gaming industry events - game releases with respect to its subdivisions: new games-sequels, games ratings and subdivision according to a developer of a game (self-developed by publisher or outsourced). The master thesis analyzes stock prices of 55 companies from gaming industry from all over the world. The research period covers 5 year, spreading from April 2008 to April 2013. Executed with an event study method, results of the research show that all the analyzed events types have significant influence on the stock prices of the gaming industry companies. The current master thesis suggests that acquisitions in the industry affect positively bidders’ and targets’ stock prices. Mergers events cause positive stock price reactions as well. But dividends payments and game releases events influence negatively on the stock prices. Game releases’ effect is up to -2.2% of cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) drop during the first ten days after the game releases. Having researched different kinds of events and identified the direction of their impact, the current paper can be of high value for investors, seeking profits in the gaming industry, and other interested parties.
Resumo:
This thesis studies the possibility of using information on insiders’ transactions to forecast future stock returns after the implementation of Sarbanes Oxley Act in July 2003. Insider transactions between July 2003 and August 2009 are analysed with regression tests to identify the relationships between insiders’ transactions and future stock returns. This analysis is complemented with rudimentary bootstrapping procedures to verify the robustness of the findings. The underlying assumption of the thesis is that insiders constantly receive pieces of information that indicate future performance of the company. They may not be allowed to trade on large and tangible pieces of information but they can trade on accumulation of smaller, intangible pieces of information. Based on the analysis in the thesis insiders’ profits were found not to differ from the returns from broad stock index. However, their individual transactions were found to be linked to future stock returns. The initial model was found to be unstable but some of the predictive power could be sacrificed to achieve greater stability. Even after sacrificing some predictive power the relationship was significant enough to allow external investors to achieve abnormal profits after transaction costs and taxes. The thesis does not go into great detail about timing of transactions. Delay in publishing insiders’ transactions is not taken into account in the calculations and the closed windows are not studied in detail. The potential effects of these phenomena are looked into and they do not cause great changes in the findings. Additionally the remuneration policy of an insider or a company is not taken into account even though it most likely affects the trading patterns of insiders. Even with the limitations the findings offer promising opportunities for investors to improve their investment processes by incorporating additional information from insiders’ transaction into their decisions. The findings also raise questions on how insider trading should be regulated. Insiders achieve greater returns than other investors based on superior information. On the other hand, more efficient information transfer could warrant more lenient regulation. The fact that insiders’ returns are dominated by the large investment stake they maintain all the time in their own companies also speaks for more leniency. As Sarbanes Oxley Act considerably modified the insider trading landscape, this analysis provides information that has not been available before. The thesis also constitutes a thorough analysis of insider trading phenomenon which has previously been somewhat separated into several studies.
Resumo:
Even though e-commerce systems are expected to have many advantages compared to the traditional ways of doing business, it is not always the reality. Lack of trust is still said to be one of the most important barriers to online shopping. In traditional stores, trust has usually been established in a direct contact between the customer and the company or its personnel. In online stores, there is no direct interaction. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the key antecedents to online trust and to distinguish between effective and ineffective practices. A model on how consumers establish initial trust towards an unknown online vendor was proposed based on previous theories. The model was tested empirically by targeting an online survey at higher degree students in Finland and in Germany. The data confirmed the proposed view that trusting intentions are affected by individual characteristics, characteristics of the company as well as characteristics of the website. Additionally national differences were found between Finnish and German respondents. The data suggested that online vendors can convey a message of trustworthiness by improving information quality and overall usefulness of the website. Perceived risk of online shopping was found to depend especially on general trust in the Internet, service quality and ease of use. A trustworthy online store should include several payment methods as well as means to access and modify given data. The vendors should also make sure that inquiries are addressed quickly, transactions are confirmed automatically and that customers have a possibility to track their order. A model that includes three different sources of trust should contribute to the theoretical understanding of trust formation in online stores. The resulting list of trust antecedents can also be used as a checklist when e-commerce practitioners wish to optimize the trust building.
Resumo:
This thesis investigates pricing of liquidity in the French stock market. The study covers 835 ordinary shares traded in the period of 1996-2014 on Paris Euronext. The author utilizes the Liquidity-Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) recently developed by Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to test whether liquidity level and risks significantly affect stock returns. Three different liquidity measures – Amihud, FHT, and PQS – are incorporated into the model to find any difference between the results they could provide. It appears that the findings largely depend on the liquidity measure used. In general the results exhibit more evidence for insignificant influence of liquidity level and risks as well as market risk on stock returns. The similar conclusion was reported earlier by Lee (2011) for several regions, including France. This finding of the thesis, however, is not consistent across all the liquidity measures. Nevertheless, the difference in the results between these measures provides new insight to the existing literature on this topic. The Amihud-based findings might indicate that market resiliency is not priced in the French stock market. At the same time the contradicting results from FHT and PQS provide some foundation for the hypothesis that one of two leftover liquidity dimensions – market depth or breadth – could significantly affect stock returns. Therefore, the thesis’ findings suggest a conjecture that different liquidity dimensions have different impacts on stock returns.
Resumo:
Online sexual solicitation (solicitation) of youth has received widespread media and research attention during the last decade. The prevalence rates of youth who have experienced solicitation or solicitation attempts vary between studies depending on the methodology used (e.g., whether youth or adults are the target study group). In studies focusing on youth victims, the prevalence of solicitation attempts made by adults during the past year is typically reported to be between 5 and 9%. Adults who solicit youth online have been found to use deception and other manipulative behaviors to gain access to sexual activities with youth. However, previous studies have lacked a control group of adults who solicit other adults online. Without this comparison, one could argue that deceiving others online about one’s identity, and engaging in manipulative behaviors, is an inherent part of most online sexual interactions with strangers. Additionally, little is known about the associations between manipulative behaviors and the solicitation outcomes. In research concerning offline sexual behaviors, it has been noted that situational factors, such as sexual arousal, may alter both sexual interest and behavior. The effects of situational factors on online sexual behaviors have been less extensively studied (especially so with a quantitative approach); no studies have to date focused on adults’ solicitation of youth. Investigating the role of a lowered sexual age preference and the role of situational factors in the soliciting adults could be an important step in order to receive deeper knowledge of the role of traits and states in the context of solicitation. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge of the effect of the age of the youth. Although previous studies on solicitation has found that older youth, compared with younger youth and children, are more often solicited, the possible reasons for this have not been investigated. Are adults who solicit youth affected by legal deterrence (through the legal age of consent), is it because older youth are more available online, or are the adults’ age preferences merely a product of a normally distributed age preference in the population? The purpose of the present thesis was fivefold: 1) to obtain an estimate of the frequency of adults’ solicitation of youth as self-reported and observed in actual behavior; 2) to explore whether the legal age of consent (LAC) affects solicitation frequency, or whether a normally distributed sexual age preference more accurately describe the proportion of solicited youth of different ages; 3) to investigate the associations of both traits (e.g., lower sexual age preference) and states (immediate situational factors, such as alcohol intoxication), and the solicitation target; 4) to explore whether adults who solicit youth and adults who solicit adults are equally deceitful and manipulative online, and whether the different solicitation outcomes are as common in both groups; and 5) to investigate whether the deceitful and manipulative behaviors engaged in had different associations with the solicitation outcomes depending on the age of the solicited. In the survey study, a convenience sample of 1393 adult participants (aged 18 years or older) self-reported any online communication with strangers during the past year. Of these, 56% (776 respondents) reported that they had solicited or attempted to solicit at least one stranger. Of the respondents, 453 (58.4%) were men, and 323 (41.6%) were women. Participants with only adult contacts (18 years or older) constituted the majority (640 respondents). In contrast, 136 individuals reported a youth contact (a 13 year old or younger, or a 14 to 17-year old). Approximately half of the participants were men in the adult contact group, while 75% of the participants were men in the youth contact group. Approximately 60% of the participants with youth contacts were recruited from two websites associated with a pedophilic sexual interest. In an online quasi-experimental study, with researchers impersonating youth of different ages (10–18 year olds) in chat rooms, 251 online conversations with chat room visitors made up the entire sample. All chat room visitors alleged to be men. The self-reported frequency of having solicited youth (0–17-year olds) during the past year was approximately 10% in our sample of adults who reported communicating with any strangers online. When we observed this behavior in chat rooms, we found that approximately 30% of the chat room visitors who believed they interacted with a 10 to 14 year old attempted to solicit the youth. We found that solicitation attempts increased equally much when increasing the age of the impersonated youth from 14 to 16, as from 16 to 18. Thus, we concluded that a normally distributed age preference in the population was a more plausible explanation to the effect of the age of the solicited, rather than the LAC (here; 15 and 16). If the chat room visitors would have been deterred only by the LAC, we would have expected that the change in amount of solicitation attempts from an illegal age group to a legal age group would have been significantly stronger than changes between age groups within illegal-illegal and legal-legal groups. Our subsample of survey participants from the pedophilia-related websites expectedly reported that they had solicited youth more often in comparison to the sample gathered through general (i.e., not associated with any particular sexual preference) websites. We also found that participants with a youth contact reported higher levels of sexual arousal and shame before the sexual interaction with their online contact, compared with participants with an adult contact. Additionally, the participants with youth contacts who reported consumption of child- and adolescent pornography also reported being more sexually aroused before the interaction, compared to the participants with youth contacts who did not report consumption of these kinds of pornography. We also found clear indications that the online sexual interaction had an alleviatory effect on reported levels of sadness, boredom and stress, independent of the age of the contact. Generally, the participants with youth and adult contacts reported deceiving their contacts as often and suggesting keeping the communication a secret from someone as often. Participants with a youth contact, however, reported using more persuasion techniques for online sexual purposes or for the purpose of an offline meeting, compared to those with an adult contact. In the chat rooms, we found that more indirect ways of future sexual communication (e.g., continuing chatting) was suggested by the chat room visitors that were under the assumption of interacting with youth aged 10 to 14, compared with more direct means (e.g., meeting offline). Survey participants with youth contacts who had used deception, suggested keeping the interactions a secret, and/or persuaded their contact by appealing to the contacts feelings of love and attachment for the participant had also more often engaged in cybersex with the contact. No other manipulative behaviors were associated with the other investigated solicitation outcomes (receiving a sexual picture, meeting offline, and engaging in sexual contact offline) within this group of participants. However, using deception, suggesting secrecy and using persuasion was also positively associated with certain solicitation outcomes within participants with an adult contact. In summary, adults’ solicitation of youth is much more frequent when observed in chat rooms than self-reported. Additionally, an underlying lowered sexual age preference seems to be a motivating factor on a group level in adults who solicit youth. We concluded that directed prevention efforts should be made on pedophiliarelated websites. Additionally, the role of situational factors, especially sexual arousal in persons with a pedo- or hebephilic sexual interest should be investigated further in the context of online sexual solicitation.
Resumo:
This thesis examines whether or not Finnish stock markets has herding behavior. Sample data is from 2004 to 2013. Including total of 2516 market days. Market wide herding, up and down market herding, extreme price movement herding and turnover volume herding are measured in this thesis. Methods used in this thesis are cross-sectional absolute dispersion and cross-sectional standard deviation. This thesis found no signs of herding in the Finnish stock market.
Resumo:
Tässä diplomityössä tutkitaan, miten verkkokaupan kävijävirran käyttäytymistä analysoimalla voidaan tehdä perusteltuja, tarkoituksenmukaisiin nimikkeisiin ja niiden parametreihin kohdistuvia päätöksiä tilanteessa, jossa laajamittaisemmat historiatiedot toteutuneesta myynnistä puuttuvat. Teoriakatsauksen perusteella muodostettiin ratkaisumalli, joka perustuu potentiaalisten kysyntäajurien muodostamiseen ja testaamiseen. Testisarjan perusteella valittavaa ajuria käytetään estimoimaan nimikkeiden kysyntää, jolloin sitä voidaan käyttää toteutuneen myynnin sijasta esimerkiksi Pareto-analyysissä. Näin huomio on mahdollista keskittää rajattuun määrään merkitykseltään suuria nimikkeitä ja niiden yksityiskohtaisiin parametreihin, joilla on merkitystä asiakkaan ostopäätöstilanteissa. Lisäksi voidaan tunnistaa nimikkeitä, joiden ongelmana on joko huono verkkonäkyvyys tai yhteensopimattomuus asiakastarpeiden kanssa. Ajurien testaamisperiaatteena käytetään kertymäfunktioiden yhdenmukaisuustarkastelua, joka rakentuu kolmesta peräkkäisestä vaiheesta; visuaalisesta tarkastelusta, kahden otoksen 2-suuntaisesta Kolmogorov-Smirnov-yhteensopivuustestistä ja Pearsonin korrelaatiotestistä. Mallia ja sen avulla tuotettua kysynnän ajuria testattiin veneilyalan kuluttaja-asiakkaille suunnatussa verkkokaupassa, jossa sillä tunnistettiin Pareto-jakauman alkupäästä runsaasti nimikkeitä, joiden parametreissa oli myynnin kannalta epäedullisia tekijöitä. Jakauman toisessa päässä tunnistettiin satoja nimikkeitä, joiden ongelmana on ilmeisesti joko huono verkkonäkyvyys tai nimikkeiden yhteensopimattomuus asiakastarpeiden kanssa.
Resumo:
Early identification of patients who need hospitalization or patients who should be discharged would be helpful for the management of acute asthma in the emergency room. The objective of the present study was to examine the clinical and pulmonary functional measures used during the first hour of assessment of acute asthma in the emergency room in order to predict the outcome. We evaluated 88 patients. The inclusion criteria were age between 12 and 55 years, forced expiratory volume in the first second below 50% of predicted value, and no history of chronic disease or pregnancy. After baseline evaluation, all patients were treated with 2.5 mg albuterol delivered by nebulization every 20 min in the first hour and 60 mg of intravenous methylprednisolone. Patients were reevaluated after 60 min of treatment. Sixty-five patients (73.9%) were successfully treated and discharged from the emergency room (good responders), and 23 (26.1%) were hospitalized or were treated and discharged with relapse within 10 days (poor responders). A predictive index was developed: peak expiratory flow rates after 1 h <=0% of predicted values and accessory muscle use after 1 h. The index ranged from 0 to 2. An index of 1 or higher presented a sensitivity of 74.0, a specificity of 69.0, a positive predictive value of 46.0, and a negative predictive value of 88.0. It was possible to predict outcome in the first hour of management of acute asthma in the emergency room when the index score was 0 or 2.
Resumo:
This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.
Resumo:
The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.