Productivity, technical and efficiency change in Singapore’s services sector, 2005 to 2008

The current study was motivated by statements made by the Economic Strategies Committee that Singapore’s recent productivity levels in services were well below countries such as the US, Japan and Hong Kong. Massive employment of foreign workers was cited as the reason for poor productivity levels. To shed more light on Singapore’s falling productivity, a nonparametric Malmquist productivity index was employed which provides measures of productivity change, technical change and efficiency change. The findings reveal that growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was attributed to technical change with no improvement in efficiency change. Such results suggest that gains from TFP were input-driven rather than from a ‘best-practice’ approach such as improvements in operations or better resource allocation.

A note on the ‘Linsanity’ of measuring the relative efficiency of National Basketball Association (NBA) guards

This note examines the productive efficiency of 62 starting guards during the 2011/12 National Basketball Association (NBA) season. This period coincides with the phenomenal and largely unanticipated performance of New York Knicks’ starting point guard Jeremy Lin and the attendant public and media hype known as Linsanity. We employ a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach that includes allowance for an undesirable output, here turnovers per game, with the desirable outputs of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks per game and an input of minutes per game. The results indicate that depending upon the specification, between 29 and 42 percent of NBA guards are fully efficient, including Jeremy Lin, with a mean inefficiency of 3.7 and 19.2 percent. However, while Jeremy Lin is technically efficient, he seldom serves as a benchmark for inefficient players, at least when compared with established players such as Chris Paul and Dwayne Wade. This suggests the uniqueness of Jeremy Lin’s productive solution and may explain why his unique style of play, encompassing individual brilliance, unselfish play, and team leadership, is of such broad public appeal.

Efficiency and productivity of Singapore’s manufacturing sector 2001-2010: An analysis using Simar and Wilson’s (2007) bootstrapped truncated approach

This paper seeks to explain the lagging productivity in Singapore’s manufacturing noted in the statements of the Economic Strategies Committee Report 2010. Two methods are employed: the Malmquist productivity to measure total factor productivity change and Simar and Wilson’s (J Econ, 136:31–64, 2007) bootstrapped truncated regression approach. In the first stage, the nonparametric data envelopment analysis is used to measure technical efficiency. To quantify the economic drivers underlying inefficiencies, the second stage employs a bootstrapped truncated regression whereby bias-corrected efficiency estimates are regressed against explanatory variables. The findings reveal that growth in total factor productivity was attributed to efficiency change with no technical progress. Most industries were technically inefficient throughout the period except for ‘Pharmaceutical Products’. Sources of efficiency were attributed to quality of worker and flexible work arrangements while incessant use of foreign workers lowered efficiency.

Statistical phylogeographic tests of competing 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' in the mouth-brooding freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion (Apogonidae)

Glacial cycles during the Pleistocene reduced sea levels and created new land connections in northern Australia, where many currently isolated rivers also became connected via an extensive paleo-lake system, 'Lake Carpentaria'. However, the most recent period during which populations of freshwater species were connected by gene flow across Lake Carpentaria is debated: various 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' have been proposed. Here, we used a statistical phylogeographic approach to assess the timing of past population connectivity across the Carpentaria region in the obligate freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion. Results for this species indicate that the most recent period of genetic exchange across the Carpentaria region coincided with the mid- to late Pleistocene, a result shown previously for other freshwater and diadromous species. Based on these findings and published studies for various freshwater, diadromous and marine species, we propose a set of 'Lake Carpentaria' hypotheses to explain past population connectivity in aquatic species: (1) strictly freshwater species had widespread gene flow in the mid- to late Pleistocene before the last glacial maximum; (2) marine species were subdivided into eastern and western populations by land during Pleistocene glacial phases; and (3) past connectivity in diadromous species reflects the relative strength of their marine affinity.

Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Non-combinatorial library screening reveals subsite cooperativity and identifies new high-efficiency substrates for kallikrein-related peptidase 14

An array of substrates link the tryptic serine protease, kallikrein-related peptidase 14 (KLK14), to physiological functions including desquamation and activation of signaling molecules associated with inflammation and cancer. Recognition of protease cleavage sequences is driven by complementarity between exposed substrate motifs and the physicochemical signature of an enzyme's active site cleft. However, conventional substrate screening methods have generated conflicting subsite profiles for KLK14. This study utilizes a recently developed screening technique, the sparse matrix library, to identify five novel high-efficiency sequences for KLK14. The optimal sequence, YASR, was cleaved with higher efficiency (k(cat)/K(m)=3.81 ± 0.4 × 10(6) M(-1) s(-1)) than favored substrates from positional scanning and phage display by 2- and 10-fold, respectively. Binding site cooperativity was prominent among preferred sequences, which enabled optimal interaction at all subsites as indicated by predictive modeling of KLK14/substrate complexes. These simulations constitute the first molecular dynamics analysis of KLK14 and offer a structural rationale for the divergent subsite preferences evident between KLK14 and closely related KLKs, KLK4 and KLK5. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of binding site cooperativity in protease substrate recognition, which has implications for discovery of optimal substrates and engineering highly effective protease inhibitors.

A comparison of methods for classifying clinical samples based on proteomics data : a case study for statistical and machine learning approaches

The discovery of protein variation is an important strategy in disease diagnosis within the biological sciences. The current benchmark for elucidating information from multiple biological variables is the so called “omics” disciplines of the biological sciences. Such variability is uncovered by implementation of multivariable data mining techniques which come under two primary categories, machine learning strategies and statistical based approaches. Typically proteomic studies can produce hundreds or thousands of variables, p, per observation, n, depending on the analytical platform or method employed to generate the data. Many classification methods are limited by an n≪p constraint, and as such, require pre-treatment to reduce the dimensionality prior to classification. Recently machine learning techniques have gained popularity in the field for their ability to successfully classify unknown samples. One limitation of such methods is the lack of a functional model allowing meaningful interpretation of results in terms of the features used for classification. This is a problem that might be solved using a statistical model-based approach where not only is the importance of the individual protein explicit, they are combined into a readily interpretable classification rule without relying on a black box approach. Here we incorporate statistical dimension reduction techniques Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) followed by both statistical and machine learning classification methods, and compared them to a popular machine learning technique, Support Vector Machines (SVM). Both PLS and SVM demonstrate strong utility for proteomic classification problems.

A review of current statistical methodologies for in storage sampling and surveillance in the grains industry

Effective, statistically robust sampling and surveillance strategies form an integral component of large agricultural industries such as the grains industry. Intensive in-storage sampling is essential for pest detection, Integrated Pest Management (IPM), to determine grain quality and to satisfy importing nation’s biosecurity concerns, while surveillance over broad geographic regions ensures that biosecurity risks can be excluded, monitored, eradicated or contained within an area. In the grains industry, a number of qualitative and quantitative methodologies for surveillance and in-storage sampling have been considered. Primarily, research has focussed on developing statistical methodologies for in storage sampling strategies concentrating on detection of pest insects within a grain bulk, however, the need for effective and statistically defensible surveillance strategies has also been recognised. Interestingly, although surveillance and in storage sampling have typically been considered independently, many techniques and concepts are common between the two fields of research. This review aims to consider the development of statistically based in storage sampling and surveillance strategies and to identify methods that may be useful for both surveillance and in storage sampling. We discuss the utility of new quantitative and qualitative approaches, such as Bayesian statistics, fault trees and more traditional probabilistic methods and show how these methods may be used in both surveillance and in storage sampling systems.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Assessing efficiency of a transit oriented development by comparative analysis

TOD: - A fully planned, mixed use development equipped with good quality transit service and infrastructure for walking and cycling Hypothesis: -TOD will help to reduce urban transport congestion Method: -Comparison of a TOD with non TOD urban environments -Residents’ trip characteristics

Spectrum sensing, detection and optimisation in cognitive radio for non-stationary primary user signals

Cognitive radio is an emerging technology proposing the concept of dynamic spec- trum access as a solution to the looming problem of spectrum scarcity caused by the growth in wireless communication systems. Under the proposed concept, non- licensed, secondary users (SU) can access spectrum owned by licensed, primary users (PU) so long as interference to PU are kept minimal. Spectrum sensing is a crucial task in cognitive radio whereby the SU senses the spectrum to detect the presence or absence of any PU signal. Conventional spectrum sensing assumes the PU signal as ‘stationary’ and remains in the same activity state during the sensing cycle, while an emerging trend models PU as ‘non-stationary’ and undergoes state changes. Existing studies have focused on non-stationary PU during the transmission period, however very little research considered the impact on spectrum sensing when the PU is non-stationary during the sensing period. The concept of PU duty cycle is developed as a tool to analyse the performance of spectrum sensing detectors when detecting non-stationary PU signals. New detectors are also proposed to optimise detection with respect to duty cycle ex- hibited by the PU. This research consists of two major investigations. The first stage investigates the impact of duty cycle on the performance of existing detec- tors and the extent of the problem in existing studies. The second stage develops new detection models and frameworks to ensure the integrity of spectrum sensing when detecting non-stationary PU signals. The first investigation demonstrates that conventional signal model formulated for stationary PU does not accurately reflect the behaviour of a non-stationary PU. Therefore the performance calculated and assumed to be achievable by the conventional detector does not reflect actual performance achieved. Through analysing the statistical properties of duty cycle, performance degradation is proved to be a problem that cannot be easily neglected in existing sensing studies when PU is modelled as non-stationary. The second investigation presents detectors that are aware of the duty cycle ex- hibited by a non-stationary PU. A two stage detection model is proposed to improve the detection performance and robustness to changes in duty cycle. This detector is most suitable for applications that require long sensing periods. A second detector, the duty cycle based energy detector is formulated by integrat- ing the distribution of duty cycle into the test statistic of the energy detector and suitable for short sensing periods. The decision threshold is optimised with respect to the traffic model of the PU, hence the proposed detector can calculate average detection performance that reflect realistic results. A detection framework for the application of spectrum sensing optimisation is proposed to provide clear guidance on the constraints on sensing and detection model. Following this framework will ensure the signal model accurately reflects practical behaviour while the detection model implemented is also suitable for the desired detection assumption. Based on this framework, a spectrum sensing optimisation algorithm is further developed to maximise the sensing efficiency for non-stationary PU. New optimisation constraints are derived to account for any PU state changes within the sensing cycle while implementing the proposed duty cycle based detector.

Developing a predictive contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) for construction projects

Over the last few decades, construction project performance has been evaluated due to the increase of delays, cost overruns and quality failures. Growing numbers of disputes, inharmonious working environments, conflict, blame cultures, and mismatches of objectives among project teams have been found to be contributory factors to poor project performance. Performance measurement (PM) approaches have been developed to overcome these issues, however, the comprehensiveness of PM as an overall approach is still criticised in terms of the iron triangle; namely time, cost, and quality. PM has primarily focused on objective measures, however, continuous improvement requires the inclusion of subjective measures, particularly contractor satisfaction (Co-S). It is challenging to deal with the two different groups of large and small-medium contractor satisfaction as to date, Co-S has not been extensively defined, primarily in developing countries such as Malaysia. Therefore, a Co-S model is developed in this research which aims to fulfil the current needs in the construction industry by integrating performance measures to address large and small-medium contractor perceptions. The positivist paradigm used in the research was adhered to by reviewing relevant literature and evaluating expert discussions on the research topic. It yielded a basis for the contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) development which consists of three elements: contractor satisfaction (Co-S) dimensions; contributory factors and characteristics (project and participant). Using valid questionnaire results from 136 contractors in Malaysia lead to the prediction of several key factors of contractor satisfaction and to an examination of the relationships between elements. The relationships were examined through a series of sequential statistical analyses, namely correlation, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), t-tests and multiple regression analysis (MRA). Forward and backward MRAs were used to develop Co-S mathematical models. Sixteen Co-S models were developed for both large and small-medium contractors. These determined that the large contractor Malaysian Co-S was most affected by the conciseness of project scope and quality of the project brief. Contrastingly, Co-S for small-medium contractors was strongly affected by the efficiency of risk control in a project. The results of the research provide empirical evidence in support of the notion that appropriate communication systems in projects negatively contributes to large Co-S with respect to cost and profitability. The uniqueness of several Co-S predictors was also identified through a series of analyses on small-medium contractors. These contractors appear to be less satisfied than large contractors when participants lack effectiveness in timely authoritative decision-making and communication between project team members. Interestingly, the empirical results show that effective project health and safety measures are influencing factors in satisfying both large and small-medium contractors. The perspectives of large and small-medium contractors in respect to the performance of the entire project development were derived from the Co-S models. These were statistically validated and refined before a new Co-S model was developed. Developing such a unique model has the potential to increase project value and benefit all project participants. It is important to improve participant collaboration as it leads to better project performance. This study may encourage key project participants; such as client, consultant, subcontractor and supplier; to increase their attention to contractor needs in the development of a project. Recommendations for future research include investigating other participants‟ perspectives on CoSMo and the impact of the implementation of CoSMo in a project, since this study is focused purely on the contractor perspective.

The Impact of Indigenous status on adult sentencing : a review of the statistical research literature.

The gross overrepresentation of Indigenous peoples in prison populations suggests that sentencing may be a discriminatory process. Using findings from recent (1991–2011) multivariate statistical sentencing analyses from the United States, Canada, and Australia, we review the 3 key hypotheses advanced as plausible explanations for baseline sentencing discrepancies between Indigenous and non-Indigenous adult criminal defendants: (a) differential involvement, (b) negative discrimination, and (c) positive discrimination. Overall, the prior research shows strong support for the differential involvement thesis and some support for the discrimination theses (positive and negative). We argue that where discrimination is found, it may be explained by the lack of a more complete set of control variables in researchers’ multivariate models and/or differing political and social contexts.