Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Load frequency control for rural distributed generation

In rural low-voltage networks, distribution lines are usually highly resistive. When many distributed generators are connected to such lines, power sharing among them is difficult when using conventional droop control, as the real and reactive power have strong coupling with each other. A high droop gain can alleviate this problem but may lead the system to instability. To overcome4 this, two droop control methods are proposed for accurate load sharing with frequency droop controller. The first method considers no communication among the distributed generators and regulates the output voltage and frequency, ensuring acceptable load sharing. The droop equations are modified with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ration for this purpose. The second proposed method, with minimal low bandwidth communication, modifies the reference frequency of the distributed generators based on the active and reactive power flow in the lines connected to the points of common coupling. The performance of these two proposed controllers is compared with that of a controller, which includes an expensive high bandwidth communication system through time-domain simulation of a test system. The magnitude of errors in power sharing between these three droop control schemes are evaluated and tabulated.

Community engagement and groundwater investigation in a rural/peri urban basaltic aquifier system, Tamborine Mountain, South East Queensland

The Tamborine Mt area is a popular residential and tourist area in the Gold Coast hinterland, SE Qld. The 15km2 area occurs on elevated remnant Tertiary Basalts of the Beechmont Group, which comprise a number of mappable flow units originally derived from the Tweed volcanic centre to the south. The older Albert Basalt (Tertiary), which underlies the Beechmont Basalt at the southern end of the investigation area, is thought to be derived from the Focal Peak volcanic centre to the south west. The Basalts contain a locally significant ‘un-declared’ groundwater resource, which is utilised by the Tamborine Mt community for: • domestic purposes to supplement rainwater tank supplies, • commercial scale horticulture and • commercial export off-Mountain for bottled water. There is no reticulated water supply, and all waste water is treated on-site through domestic scale WTPs. Rainforest and other riparian ecosystems that attract residents and tourist dollars to the area, are also reliant on the groundwater that discharges to springs and surface streams on and around the plateau. Issues regarding a lack of compiled groundwater information, groundwater contamination, and groundwater sustainability are being investigated by QUT, utilising funding provided by the Federal Government’s ‘Caring for our Country’ programme through SEQ Catchments Ltd. The objectives of the two year project, which started in April 2009, are to: • Characterise the nature and condition of groundwater / surface water systems in the Tamborine Mountain area in terms of the issues being raised; • Engage and build capacity within the community to source local knowledge, encourage participation, raise awareness and improve understanding of the impacts of land and water use; • Develop a stand-alone 3D Visualisation model for dissemination into the community and use as a communication tool.

Repeat participation in colorectal cancer screening utilizing fecal occult blood testing : a community-based project in a rural setting

Background and Aim: To investigate participation in a second round of colorectal cancer screening using a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) in an Australian rural community, and to assess the demographic characteristics and individual perspectives associated with repeat screening. ---------- Methods: Potential participants from round 1 (50–74 years of age) were sent an intervention package and asked to return a completed FOBT (n = 3406). Doctors of participants testing positive referred to colonoscopy as appropriate. Following screening, 119 participants completed qualitative telephone interviews. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated the association between round-2 participation and other variables.---------- Results: Round-2 participation was 34.7%; the strongest predictor was participation in round 1. Repeat participants were more likely to be female; inconsistent screeners were more likely to be younger (aged 50–59 years). The proportion of positive FOBT was 12.7%, that of colonoscopy compliance was 98.6%, and the positive predictive value for cancer or adenoma of advanced pathology was 23.9%. Reasons for participation included testing as a precautionary measure or having family history/friends with colorectal cancer; reasons for non-participation included apathy or doctors’ advice against screening.---------- Conclusion: Participation was relatively low and consistent across rounds. Unless suitable strategies are identified to overcome behavioral trends and/or to screen out ineligible participants, little change in overall participation rates can be expected across rounds.

A novel load transfer scheme for peak load management in rural areas

This paper proposes a novel peak load management scheme for rural areas. The scheme transfers certain customers onto local nonembedded generators during peak load periods to alleviate network under voltage problems. This paper develops and presents this system by way of a case study in Central Queensland, Australia. A methodology is presented for determining the best location for the nonembedded generators as well as the number of generators required to alleviate network problems. A control algorithm to transfer and reconnect customers is developed to ensure that the network voltage profile remains within specification under all plausible load conditions. Finally, simulations are presented to show the performance of the system over a typical maximum daily load profile with large stochastic load variations.

Defending the patch : a labour geography analysis of unions’ construction of and responses to the problem of declining union membership amongst youth

If the trade union movement is to remain an influential force in the industrial, economic and socio/political arenas of industrialised nations it is vital that its recruitment of young members improve dramatically. Australian union membership levels have declined markedly over the last three decades and youth union membership levels have decreased more than any age group. Currently around 10% of young workers aged between 16-24 years are members of unions in Australia compared to 26% of workers aged 45-58 (Oliver, 2008). This decline has occurred throughout the union movement, in all states and in almost all industries and occupations. This research, which consists of interviews with union organisers and union officials, draws on perspectives from the labour geography literature to explore how union personnel located in various places, spaces and scales construct the issue of declining youth union membership. It explores the scale of connections within the labour movement and the extent to which these connections are leveraged to address the problem of youth union membership decline. To offer the reader a sense of context and perspective, the thesis firstly outlines the historical development of the union movement. It also reviews the literature on youth membership decline. Labour geography offers a rich and apposite analytical tool for investigation of this area. The notion of ‘scale’ as a dynamic, interactive, constructed and reconstructed entity (Ellem, 2006) is an appropriate lens for viewing youth-union membership issues. In this non-linear view, scale is a relational element which interplays with space, place and the environment (Howett, in Marston, 2000) rather than being ‘sequential’ and hierarchical. Importantly, the thesis investigates the notion of unions as ‘spaces of dependence’ (Cox, 1998a, p.2), organisations whose space is centred upon realising essential interests. It also considers the quality of unions’ interactions with others – their ‘spaces of engagement‘(Cox, 1998a, p.2), and the impact that this has upon their ability to recruit youth. The findings reveal that most respondents across the spectrum of the union movement attribute the decline in youth membership levels to factors external to the movement itself, such as changes to industrial relations legislation and the impact of globalisation on employment markets. However, participants also attribute responsibility for declining membership levels to the union movement itself, citing factors such as a lack of resourcing and a need to change unions’ perceived identity and methods of operation. The research further determined that networks of connections across the union movement are tenuous and, to date, are not being fully utilised to assist unions to overcome the youth recruitment dilemma. The study concludes that potential connections between unions are hampered by poor resourcing, workload issues and some deeply entrenched attitudes related to unions ‘defending (and maintaining) their patch’.

The nature of caregiving in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis from multiple sources and the associations between caregiving activities and youth adjustment overtime

This study explored youth caregiving for a parent with multiple sclerosis (MS) from multiple perspectives, and examined associations between caregiving and child negative (behavioural emotional difficulties, somatisation) and positive (life satisfaction, positive affect, prosocial behaviour) adjustment outcomes overtime. A total of 88 families participated; 85 parents with MS, 55 partners and 130 children completed questionnaires at Time 1. Child caregiving was assessed by the Youth Activities of Caregiving Scale (YACS). Child and parent questionnaire data were collected at Time 1 and child data were collected 12 months later (Time 2). Factor analysis of the child and parent YACS data replicated the four factors (instrumental, social-emotional, personal-intimate, domestic-household care), all of which were psychometrically sound. The YACS factors were related to parental illness and caregiving context variables that reflected increased caregiving demands. The Time 1 instrumental and social-emotional care domains were associated with poorer Time 2 adjustment, whereas personal-intimate was related to better adjustment and domestic-household care was unrelated to adjustment. Children and their parents exhibited highest agreement on personal-intimate, instrumental and total caregiving, and least on domestic-household and social-emotional care. Findings delineate the key dimensions of young caregiving in MS and the differential links between caregiving activities and youth adjustment.

Risk factors for fatal crashes in rural Australia

This paper presents findings from the rural and remote road safety study, conducted in Queensland, Australia, from March 2004 till June 2007, and compares fatal crashes and non-fatal but serious crashes in respect of their environmental, vehicle and operator factors. During the study period there were 613 non-fatal crashes resulting in 684 hospitalised casualties and 119 fatal crashes resulting in 130 fatalities. Additional information from police sources was available on 103 fatal and 309 non-fatal serious crashes. Over three quarters of both fatal and hospitalised casualties were male and the median age in both groups was 34 years. Fatal crashes were more likely to involve speed, alcohol and violations of road rules and fatal crash victims were 2 and a 1/2 times more likely to be unrestrained inside the vehicle than non-fatal casualties, consistent with current international evidence. After controlling for human factors, vehicle and road conditions made a minimal contribution to the seriousness of the crash outcome. Targeted interventions to prevent fatalities on rural and remote roads should focus on reducing speed and drink driving and promoting seatbelt wearing.

Predicting single-vehicle fatal crashes for two-lane rural highways in Southeastern United States

The rural two-lane highway in the southeastern United States is frequently associated with a disproportionate number of serious and fatal crashes and as such remains a focus of considerable safety research. The Georgia Department of Transportation spearheaded a regional fatal crash analysis to identify various safety performances of two-lane rural highways and to offer guidance for identifying suitable countermeasures with which to mitigate fatal crashes. The fatal crash data used in this study were compiled from Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The database, developed for an earlier study, included 557 randomly selected fatal crashes from 1997 or 1998 or both (this varied by state). Each participating state identified the candidate crashes and performed physical or video site visits to construct crash databases with enhance site-specific information. Motivated by the hypothesis that single- and multiple-vehicle crashes arise from fundamentally different circumstances, the research team applied binary logit models to predict the probability that a fatal crash is a single-vehicle run-off-road fatal crash given roadway design characteristics, roadside environment features, and traffic conditions proximal to the crash site. A wide variety of factors appears to influence or be associated with single-vehicle fatal crashes. In a model transferability assessment, the authors determined that lane width, horizontal curvature, and ambient lighting are the only three significant variables that are consistent for single-vehicle run-off-road crashes for all study locations.

Punitiveness and the criminalisation of the other : State wards, unlawful non-citizens and Indigenous youth

This paper explores the genealogies of bio-power that cut across punitive state interventions aimed at regulating or normalising several distinctive ‘problem’ or ‘suspect’ deviant populations, such as state wards, non-lawful citizens and Indigenous youth. It begins by making some general comments about the theoretical approach to bio-power taken in this paper. It then outlines the distinctive features of bio-power in Australia and how these intersected with the emergence of penal welfarism to govern the unruly, unchaste, unlawful, and the primitive. The paper draws on three examples to illustrate the argument – the gargantuan criminalisation rates of Aboriginal youth, the history of incarcerating state wards in state institutions, and the mandatory detention of unlawful non-citizens and their children. The construction of Indigenous people as a dangerous presence, alongside the construction of the unruly neglected children of the colony — the larrikin descendants of convicts as necessitating special regimes of internal controls and institutions, found a counterpart in the racial and other exclusionary criteria operating through immigration controls for much of the twentieth century. In each case the problem child or population was expelled from the social body through forms of bio-power, rationalised as strengthening, protecting or purifying the Australian population.

Review of 'Laying Down the Criminal Law : A Handbook for Youth Workers'

This third edition of Laying down the criminal law: A handbook for youth workers is essential to understanding young people’s experiences with criminal justice in Queensland. The text comprises detailed scenarios of situations where a young person would have contact with the system, and young people ‘in trouble’ (for example, being excluded from school). The text discusses how workers support the young person in talking to police, going to court, or being a victim of crime. One scenario notes how a youth worker responds to 15 year old Stephen staying at a youth shelter after leaving home and having contact with police. Scenarios are supplemented with information about confidentiality and negligence, and how workers consider these concepts supporting young people...

Expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in youth

This review assembles pedometry literature focused on youth, with particular attention to expected values for habitual, school day, physical education class, recess, lunch break, out-of-school, weekend, and vacation activity. From 31 studies published since 1999, we constructed a youth habitual activity step-curve that indicates: (a) from ages 6 to 18 years, boys typically take more steps per day than girls; (b) for both sexes the youngest age groups appear to take fewer steps per day than those immediately older; and (c) from a young age, boys decline more in steps per day to become move consistent with girls at older ages. Additional studies revealed that boys take approximately 42-49% of daily steps during the school day; girls take 41-47%. Steps taken during physical education class contribute to total steps per day by 8.7-23.7% in boys and 11.4-17.2% in girls. Recess represents 8-11% and lunch break represents 15-16% of total steps per day. After-school activity contributes approximately 47-56% of total steps per day for boys and 47-59% for girls. Weekdays range from approximately 12,000 to 16,000 steps per day in boys and 10,000 to 14,000 steps per day in girls. The corresponding values for weekend days are 12,000-13,000 steps per day in boys and 10,000-12,000 steps per day in girls.

Pedometry methods for assessing free-living youth

The purpose of this review is to integrate and summarize specific measurement topics (instrument and metric choice, validity, reliability, how many and what types of days, reactivity, and data treatment) appropriate to the study of youth physical activity. Research quality pedometers are necessary to aid interpretation of steps per day collected in a range of young populations under a variety of circumstances. Steps per day is the most appropriate metric choice, but steps per minute can be used to interpret time-in-intensity in specifically delimited time periods (e.g., physical education class). Reported intraclass correlations (ICC) have ranged from .65 over 2 days (although higher values also have been reported for 2 days) to .87 over 8 days (although higher values have been reported for fewer days). Reported ICCs are lower on weekend days (.59) versus weekdays (.75) and lower over vacation days (.69) versus school days (.74). There is no objective evidence of reactivity at this time. Data treatment includes (a) identifying and addressing missing values, (b) identifying outliers and reducing data appropriately if necessary, and (c) transforming the data as required in preparation for inferential analysis. As more pedometry studies in young populations are published, these preliminary methodological recommendations should be modified and refined.

Response to "a step in the right direction : commentary on expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in youth"

The figure Beets took exception to displays sex‐ and age‐specific median values of aggregated published expected values for pedometer determined physical activity.