World distribution of land cover changes, model in NetCDF format

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

Water level time series and sediment grain size model

The environment of ebb-tidal deltas between barrier island systems is characterized by a complex morphology with ebb- and flood-dominated channels, shoals and swash bars connecting the ebb-tidal delta platform to the adjacent island. These morphological features reveal characteristic surface sediment grain-size distributions and are subject to a continuous adaptation to the prevailing hydrodynamic forces. The mixed-energy tidal inlet Otzumer Balje between the East Frisian barrier islands of Langeoog and Spiekeroog in the southern North Sea has been chosen here as a model study area for the identification of relevant hydrodynamic drivers of morphology and sedimentology. We compare the effect of high-energy, wave-dominated storm conditions to mid-term, tide-dominated fair-weather conditions on tidal inlet morphology and sedimentology with a process-based numerical model. A multi-fractional approach with five grain-size fractions between 150 and 450 µm allows for the simulation of corresponding surface sediment grain-size distributions. Net sediment fluxes for distinct conditions are identified: during storm conditions, bed load sediment transport is generally onshore directed on the shallower ebb-tidal delta shoals, whereas fine-grained suspended sediment bypasses the tidal inlet by wave-driven currents. During fair weather the sediment transport mainly focuses on the inlet throat and the marginal flood channels. We show how the observed sediment grain-size distribution and the morphological response at mixed-energy tidal inlets are the result of both wave-dominated less frequent storm conditions and mid-term, tide-dominant fair-weather conditions.

Adaptation to enemy shifts: rapid resistance evolution to local Vibrio spp. in invasive Pacific oysters

One hypothesis for the success of invasive species is reduced pathogen burden, resulting from a release from infections or high immunological fitness (low immunopathology) of invaders. Despite of strong selection exerted on the host, the evolutionary response of invaders to newly acquired pathogens has rarely been considered. The two independent and genetically distinct invasions of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas into the North Sea represent an ideal model system to study fast evolutionary responses of invasive populations. By exposing both invasion sources to ubiquitous and phylogenetically diverse pathogens (Vibrio spp.) we demonstrate that within a few generations hosts adapted to sympatric pathogen communities. However, this local adaptation only became apparent in selective environments, i.e. at elevated temperatures reflecting patterns of disease outbreaks in natural populations. Resistance against sympatric and allopatric Vibrio spp. strains was dominantly inherited in crosses between both invasion sources, resulting in an overall higher resistance of admixed individuals than pure lines. Therefore we suggest that a simple genetic resistance mechanism of the host is matched to a common virulence mechanism shared by local Vibrio strains. This combination might have facilitated a fast evolutionary response that can explain another dimension of why invasive species can be so successful in newly invaded ranges.

Exchange Rate Stabilization and IMF High Interest Rate Policy: A Critical Reconsideration Using a Dynamic Model

This paper examines whether the IMF high interest rate policy was suitable for crisis-ridden East Asian economies. Using an "overshoot" model similar to that of Dornbusch's (1976), it shows that this sort of policy might cause an unnecessary deflationary adjusting process and have no effect on containing the real depreciation of exchange rates in the long run. The study also demonstrates that Thai economic data coincides quite well with the model presented here. Finally, it points out that the high interest policy itself might provoke high risk-premium, the existence of which, in turn, justifies the policy. This means that the policy has a self-fulfilling property. In conclusion, a "one-size-fits-all" adaptation of high interest rate policy in a currency crisis is very dangerous in general, and was inappropriate for East Asia. The desirable policy would have been to let currencies depreciate and keep interest rates stable.

Evolvable 2D computing matrix model for intrinsic evolution in commercial FPGAs with native reconfiguration support

This paper addresses the modelling and validation of an evolvable hardware architecture which can be mapped on a 2D systolic structure implemented on commercial reconfigurable FPGAs. The adaptation capabilities of the architecture are exercised to validate its evolvability. The underlying proposal is the use of a library of reconfigurable components characterised by their partial bitstreams, which are used by the Evolutionary Algorithm to find a solution to a given task. Evolution of image noise filters is selected as the proof of concept application. Results show that computation speed of the resulting evolved circuit is higher than with the Virtual Reconfigurable Circuits approach, and this can be exploited on the evolution process by using dynamic reconfiguration

A Model of Emotion as Patterned Metacontrol

Adaptive agents use feedback as a key strategy to cope with un- certainty and change in their environments. The information fed back from the sensorimotor loop into the control subsystem can be used to change four different elements of the controller: parameters associated to the control model, the control model itself, the functional organization of the agent and the functional realization of the agent. There are many change alternatives and hence the complexity of the agent’s space of potential configurations is daunting. The only viable alternative for space- and time-constrained agents —in practical, economical, evolutionary terms— is to achieve a reduction of the dimensionality of this configuration space. Emotions play a critical role in this reduction. The reduction is achieved by func- tionalization, interface minimization and by patterning, i.e. by selection among a predefined set of organizational configurations. This analysis lets us state how autonomy emerges from the integration of cognitive, emotional and autonomic systems in strict functional terms: autonomy is achieved by the closure of functional dependency. Emotion-based morphofunctional systems are able to exhibit complex adaptation patterns at a reduced cognitive cost. In this article we show a general model of how emotion supports functional adaptation and how the emotional biological systems operate following this theoretical model. We will also show how this model is also of applicability to the construction of a wide spectrum of artificial systems1.