793 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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Timely and convenient access to primary healthcare is essential for the health of the population as delays can incur additional health and financial costs. Access to health care is under increasing scrutiny as part of the drive to contain escalating costs, while attempting to maintain equity in service provision. The objective was to compare primary care services in Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, and to report on perceived and reported access to GP services in universal access and mixed private/public systems. A questionnaire study was performed in Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI). Patients of 20 practices in the ROI and NI were contacted (n = 22,796). Main outcome measures were overall satisfaction and the access to GP services. Individual responses and scale scores were derived using the General Practice Assessment Questionnaire (G-PAQ). The response rate was 52% (n = 11,870). Overall satisfaction with GP practices was higher in ROI than in NI (84.2% and 80.9% respectively). Access scores were higher in ROI than in NI (69.2% and 57.0% respectively) Less than 1 in 10 patients in ROI waited two or more working days to see a doctor of choice (8.1%) compared to almost half (45.0%) in NI. In NI overall satisfaction decreased as practice size increased; 82.8%, 80.4%, and 75.8%. In both systems, in large practices, accessibility is reduced when compared to smaller practices. The faster access to GP services in ROI may be due to the deterrent effect of the consultation charge freeing up services although, as it is the poorest and sickest who are deterred by the charge this improved accessibility may come at a significant cost in terms of equity. The underlying concern for policy makers centres around provision of equitable services.

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The importance of establishing effective interagency working between adult mental health services and child care services in order to safeguard children has been repeatedly identified by research, policy, inquiries and inspection reports. This article reports on the evaluation of an initiative in one Health and Social Care Trust in Northern Ireland that aimed to facilitate joint working and so improve service provision and protection for children and families. The Champions Initiative involved identifying a champion in each multi-disciplinary community mental health team and in each family and child care team who would have responsibility for providing information, promoting joint working and identifying any obstacles to better co-operation. The evaluation of this initiative assessed levels of experience, training, confidence, understanding and awareness in the Champions and their team members at baseline. The Champions and their Team Leaders were then followed-up after six months to obtain their qualitative views of the impact of the initiative. The results include comparisons between mental health and child care staff, and crucially, views about whether the initiative has had any impact on working together. This study also generated recommendations for further service development in this complex and important area of practice.

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Recent literature suggests that the increasingly blurred relationship between paid employment and retirement facilitates a retirement transition period, a life course stage, which may involve a change of residence. The role of such pre-retirement age mobility in the repopulation of rural areas has, however, received relatively little academic scrutiny. This paper draws upon findings from a two-year study conducted in three UK case study areas. It examines the extent of pre-retirement age (aged 50–64) migration into remote rural communities and the impacts this type of movement has upon economic activity, social and community engagement and service provision. It is argued that while this under-researched cohort offers opportunities to support the social and economic sustainability of rural communities (at least in the short and medium term), there are notable challenges which are likely to emerge as it ages in situ. The findings are particularly relevant given national trends on population ageing.

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This manuscript describes how motor behaviour researchers who are not at the same time expert roboticists may implement an experimental apparatus, which has the ability to dictate torque fields around a single joint on one limb or single joints on multiple limbs without otherwise interfering with the inherent dynamics of those joints. Such an apparatus expands the exploratory potential of the researcher wherever experimental distinction of factors may necessitate independent control of torque fields around multiple limbs, or the shaping of torque fields of a given joint independently of its plane of motion, or its directional phase within that plane. The apparatus utilizes torque motors. The challenge with torque motors is that they impose added inertia on limbs and thus attenuate joint dynamics. We eliminated this attenuation by establishing an accurate mathematical model of the robotic device using the Box-Jenkins method, and cancelling out its dynamics by employing the inverse of the model as a compensating controller. A direct measure of the remnant inertial torque as experienced by the hand during a 50 s period of wrist oscillations that increased gradually in frequency from 1.0 to 3.8 Hz confirmed that the removal of the inertial effect of the motor was effectively complete.

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This article analyses the dynamics of electoral competition in a multilevel setting. It is based on a content analysis of the party manifestos of the Spanish PP and PSOE in eight regional elections held between 2001 and 2003. It provides an innovative coding scheme for analysing regional party manifestos and on that basis seeks to account for inter-regional, intra-party and inter-party differences in regional campaigning. The authors have tried to explain the inter-regional variation of the issue profiles of state-wide parties in regional elections on the basis of a model with four independent variables: the asymmetric nature of the system, the electoral cycle, the regional party systems and the organisation of the state-wide parties. Three of their hypotheses are rejected, but the stronger variations in the regional issue profiles of the PSOE corroborate the assumption that parties with a more decentralised party organisation support regionally more diverse campaigning. The article concludes by offering an alternative explanation for this finding and by suggesting avenues for further research.

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Goals of the work: The aim of this study was to explore the bereaved caregivers' experience of the Hospice at Home service delivered in one region of the UK. Materials and methods: Three hundred and ten bereaved caregivers identified by the Community Specialist Palliative Care Team or Hospice at Home nurse, who met inclusion criteria, were sent a postal questionnaire to explore their views and experiences of the Hospice at Home service. Data were collected during 2002. Main results: In total, 128 caregivers responded, providing a 41% response rate. Most caregivers believed that the Hospice at Home service enabled their loved one's wish to be cared for and to die at home to be fulfilled. A number of suggestions were made relating to increased awareness of the service, training for staff, coordination of service delivery and bereavement support. Conclusions: The bereaved caregivers were thankful for the Hospice at Home service; however, the need for practical support, increased awareness of the Hospice at Home service and bereavement support were also identified. Although the bereaved caregivers provided a valuable insight in evaluating service provision, it is acknowledged that some caregivers are often so grateful for the treatment and care received that they tend to forget or ignore their less pleasant experiences. Further research is therefore required using an in-depth qualitative approach investigating on the carers' views and experiences of accessing the Hospice at Home service. © 2006 Springer-Verlag.

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Increasingly countries are turning to nonprofit organisations to provide health and social care, particularly for people with disabilities. Alongside this change, debates continue about how states should manage the relationship with such organisations. Should features of the old-style "welfare" model be retained? Should aspects of the "new public management" model be chosen to measure the impact of the work? Yet others argue that grassroots organisations should form the basis of a service provision system. In the context of these debates, Ireland serves as an interesting case study of the system of care that can emerge when the state operates a "relaxed control" approach. This paper takes the perspectives of users themselves: family carers who are accessing services for a disabled adult child, to examine the effects of this approach on the ground. We show how geography played a central role in shaping these experiences, and discuss how we can learn from the Irish context. Rather than arguing for narrowly defined contractual measures, we conclude by proposing a renewed focus on relationship building with the aim of effective system operation, in the future of care services. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

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Background: The World Health Organisation recognises palliative care as a global public health issue and this is reflected at strategic level. Despite this, palliative care may not be universally welcomed. Surveys over the last decade have suggested that the general public have a lack of knowledge and negative perceptions towards palliative care. A detailed and comprehensive understanding of public views is needed in order to target education and policy campaigns and to manage future needs, expectations and resourcing of end of life care. The aim of this study was to establish the current levels of awareness and attitudes towards palliative care among the general public in Northern Ireland.

Methods: A community-based cross-sectional survey with a population of 3,557 individuals aged over 17 years was performed. Information was collected using a structured questionnaire consisting of 17 items. Open questions were subject to content analysis; closed questions were subject to descriptive statistics with inferential testing as appropriate.

Results: A total of 600 responses were obtained (response rate 17%). Responses indicated limited knowledge about palliative care. Female gender and previous experience influenced awareness in a positive direction. Respondents who worked in healthcare themselves or who had a close relative or friend who had used a palliative care service were more aware of palliative care and the availability of different palliative care services. Findings reveal the preferred place of care was the family home. The main barriers to raising awareness were fear, lack of interaction with health services and perception of lack of resources. A number of strategies to enhance awareness, access and community involvement in palliative care were suggested.

Conclusions: Public awareness of the concept of palliative care and of service availability remains insufficient for widespread effective and appropriate palliative care to be accepted as the norm. In particular, those without
previous family-related experiences lack awareness. This has implications for palliative care service provision and policy. An increased awareness of palliative care is needed, in order to improve knowledge of and access to services when required, empower individuals, involve communities and ultimately to realise the objectives contained within international strategies for palliative and end-of-life care.

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The recent growth in bioenergy crop cultivation, stimulated by the need to implement measures to reduce net CO emissions, is driving major land-use changes with consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Although the type of bioenergy crop and its associated management is likely to affect biodiversity at the local (field) scale, landscape context and its interaction with crop type may also influence biodiversity on farms. In this study, we assessed the impact of replacing conventional agricultural crops with two model bioenergy crops (either oilseed rape Brassica napus or Miscanthus × giganteus) on vascular plant, bumblebee, solitary bee, hoverfly and carabid beetle richness, diversity and abundance in 50 sites in Ireland. We assessed whether within-field biodiversity was also related to surrounding landscape structure. We found that local- and landscape-scale variables correlated with biodiversity in these agricultural landscapes. Overall, the differences between the bioenergy crops and the conventional crops on farmland biodiversity were mostly positive (e.g. higher vascular plant richness in Miscanthus planted on former conventional tillage, higher solitary bee abundance and richness in Miscanthus and oilseed rape compared with conventional crops) or neutral (e.g. no differences between crop types for hoverflies and bumblebees). We showed that these crop type effects were independent of (i.e. no interactions with) the surrounding landscape composition and configuration. However, surrounding landscape context did relate to biodiversity in these farms, negatively for carabid beetles and positively for hoverflies. Although we conclude that the bioenergy crops compared favourably with conventional crops in terms of biodiversity of the taxa studied at the field scale, the effects of large-scale planting in these landscapes could result in very different impacts. Maintaining ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services will require a greater understanding of impacts at the landscape scale to ensure the sustainable development of climate change mitigation measures.

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Recent literature suggests that the increasingly blurred relationship between paid employment and retirement facilitates a retirement transition period, a life course stage which may involve a change of residence. The role of pre-retirement mobility in the repopulation of rural areas has, however, received relatively little academic scrutiny from UK geographers. This article draws upon findings from a two-year study conducted in three UK case study areas. It examines the extent of pre-retirement age (aged 50-64) migration into rural communities and the impacts this type of movement has upon economic activity, social and community engagement and service provision. It is argued that while this under-researched group offers significant potential to support the social and economic sustainability of rural communities (at least in the short and medium term), there are notable regional variations which are likely to have important long term implications for rural communities as this cohort ages in situ.

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Research aims: 
To describe service provision for the transition from children’s to adult services for young people with life-limiting conditions in Northern Ireland, and to identify organisational factors that promote or inhibit effective transition. 
Study population
Health, social, educational and charitable organisations providing transition services to young people with life-limiting conditions in Northern Ireland. 
Study design and methods: 
A questionnaire has been developed by the research team drawing on examples from the literature and the advice of an expert advisory group. The questionnaire was piloted with clinicians,academics and researchers in June 2013. The questionnaire focuses on components of practice which may promote continuity in the transition from child to adult care for young people with a life-limiting condition. The survey will be distributed throughout Northern Ireland to an estimated 75 organisations, following the Dillman total design survey method. Numerical data will be analysed using PASW Statistical software to generate descriptive statistics along with a thematic analysis of data generated by open-ended questions. 
Results and interpretations: 
The survey will provide a description of services, transition policies, approaches to managing transition, categories of service users, the ages at which transition starts and completes, experiences with minority ethnic groups, the input of service users to the process, organisational factors promoting or hindering effective transition, links between services, and service providers’ recommendations for improvements in services.The outcomes will be an overview of the transition services currently provided in Northern Ireland identifying models of good practice and the key factors influencing the quality, safety and continuity of care. Survey results are due early in 2014.

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The UK government introduced the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and, latterly, the Local Improvement Finance Trust (LIFT) in an attempt to improve public service provision. As a variant of PFI, LIFT seeks to create a framework for the effective provision of primary care facilities. Like conventional PFI procurement, LIFT projects involve long-term contracts, complex multi-party interactions and thus create various risks to public sector clients. This paper investigates the advantages and disadvantages of LIFT with a focus on how this approach facilitates or impedes risk management from the public sector client perspective. Our paper concludes that LIFT has a potential for creating additional problems, including the further reduction of public sector control, conflicts of interest, the inappropriate use of enabling funds, and higher than market rental costs affecting the uptake of space in the buildings by local health care providers. However, there is also evidence that LIFT has facilitated new investment and that Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) have themselves started addressing some of the weaknesses of this procurement format through the bundling of projects and other forms of regional co-operation.

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In the UK it is estimated that over 33% of psychiatric patients with enduring mental illness have a substance misuse problem, whilst over 50 % of clients currently accessing drug and alcohol services have a mental health problem. Between 2003 and 2013 in Northern Ireland, there were 741 recorded suicides by patients who were in contact with mental health services. Of this number, 68% (n=501) had a history of either alcohol or drug misuse or both, resulting in an average of 46 patient suicides per year associated with dual diagnosis (University of Manchester 2015).
The current evaluation examined staff attitudes towards working with dual diagnosis (co-existing difficulties) issues, staff confidence in working with clients with dual diagnosis, workers’ perceptions of the South Eastern dual diagnosis strategy and service user perspectives of dual diagnosis service provision.
The purpose of the evaluation was to provide evidence regarding the following in accordance with the current dual diagnosis strategy;
Staff understanding of the concept of dual diagnosis,
Staff attitudes towards working with dual diagnosis,
Staff confidence in working with individuals, who present with dual diagnosis,
Service users’ perspectives of SE Trust provision for dual diagnosis.
Staff views on the South Eastern Trust Dual Diagnosis Strategy.

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Objectives:
The process evaluation will consider the views of the appointed SUN workers and representatives from selected service user groups as regards the setting up and maintenance of the SUN network. This component of the evaluation will also examine the perceptions of stakeholders from a number of relevant organisations.

The outcome evaluation will assess the effectiveness of the SUN project in achieving the intended outcomes as outlined in the original Action Plans.
The following outcomes will be evaluated:
To ascertain the level to which the SUN has provided support, information and advice to existing service user groups.
To examine the SUN co-ordination of Trust and regional networks of service user groups.
To consider how the SUN assists organisations to establish and maintain service user groups.
To examine the level of current and future membership of service users on relevant groups, with a particular focus on engagement of hard to reach populations.
To gauge service user perceptions of the Service User Network.
To examine the levels of training provided and consider the efficacy of training.

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This study attempts to implement a hydrodynamic operational model which can ultimately be used for projecting oil spill dispersal patterns and also sewage, pollution and can also be used in wave forecasting. A two layer nested model was created using MOHID Water, which is powerful ocean modelling software. The first layer (father) is used to impose the boundary conditions for the second layer (son). This was repeated for two different wind dominant regimes, Easterly and Westerly winds respectively. A qualitative comparison was done between measured tidal data and the tidal output. Sea surface temperature was also qualitatively compared with the model’s results. The results from both simulations were analysed and compared to historical literature. The comparison was done at the surface layer, 100 metre depth and at 800m depth. In the surface layer the first simulation generated an upwelling event near Cape St. Vincent and within the Algarve. The second simulation generated a non-upwelling event within which the surface was flow reversed and the warm water mass was along the Algarve coastline and evening turning clockwise around Cape St. Vincent. At the 100 metre depth for both simulations, velocity vortexes were observed near Cape St. Vincent travelling northerly and southerly at various instances. At 800metre depth a strong oceanic flow was observed moving north westerly along the continental shelf.