Projecto de pré-dimensionamento de uma ETAR em Luanda - Angola

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Hidráulica

Information Society in Croatia, Landsc@pes of Knowledge for Development

Sabbatical Studies Report

Treasury bond returns and U.S. political cycles

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Relatório de estágio no Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa

This report is the outcome of an internship that took place in Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa and its completion is an essential part of the path towards obtaining the Master’s Degree in Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Nova de Lisboa. This report has been structured in two stages – firstly, the presentation of the Centro de Arbitragem Comercial, focusing on its field of expertise, organic structure, principles and advantages. Then, the description of the activities developed within the Secretariat over the several stages of the arbitration procedure – since the reception of the arbitration requirement in institutional proceedings, terms of reference in ad hoc procedures, through the monitoring of the arbitral tribunal sessions (preliminary hearings, submission of evidence and final allegations) and the notification of the arbitration award. The second stage of this report is related to the description of the functions and powers of the President of Centro de Arbitragem Comercial. Firstly, it defines those powers by analyzing the statutes and rules of proceedings of the Centro de Arbitragem, drawing comparisons between the above mention and the rules of proceedings of others arbitral institutional centres, some of them are international references. The report assesses and describes the presidential powers, such as: configuration and composition of the arbitral tribunal (including arbitrator’s replacements, excuses and refusals); deadline extensions; determination of procedural rules and decision-making on any procedural incidents which arise before the constitution of the arbitral tribunal; definition of arbitration costs and fees; joinder of parties and consolidation of proceedings admission; and appointment of an emergency arbitrator. Lastly, this report analyzes some decisions delivered by the President in the respective institutional procedures which took place in the Centre.

US fiscal dynamics in political perspective

Given the importance of fiscal balance for ensuring a sustainable fiscal policy, we conduct an empirical examination of fiscal dynamics in the United States in response to unsustainable budget deviations. We concentrate on the role of political factors, namely the Republican - Democrat presidential divide, in determining the fiscal response to budget disequilibria. Making use of an asymmetric cointegration framework, we explore politically motivated fiscal asymmetries in the US, from Eisenhower to Obama. We conclude that political factors such as the government’s political quadrant and the timing of elections are important determinants of the fiscal response to unsustainable budget deviations.

Relatório de estágio curricular no Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria portuguesa

This report is the outcome of an internship that took place in Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa and its completion is an essential part of the path towards obtaining the Master’s Degree in Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Nova de Lisboa. This report has been structured in two stages – firstly, the presentation of the Centro de Arbitragem Comercial, focusing on its field of expertise, organic structure, principles and advantages. Then, the description of the activities developed within the Secretariat over the several stages of the arbitration procedure – since the reception of the arbitration requirement in institutional proceedings, terms of reference in ad hoc procedures, through the monitoring of the arbitral tribunal sessions (preliminary hearings, submission of evidence and final allegations) and the notification of the arbitration award. The second stage of this report is related to the description of the functions and powers of the President of Centro de Arbitragem Comercial. Firstly, it defines those powers by analyzing the statutes and rules of proceedings of the Centro de Arbitragem, drawing comparisons between the above mention and the rules of proceedings of others arbitral institutional centres, some of them are international references. The report assesses and describes the presidential powers, such as: configuration and composition of the arbitral tribunal (including arbitrator’s replacements, excuses and refusals); deadline extensions; determination of procedural rules and decision-making on any procedural incidents which arise before the constitution of the arbitral tribunal; definition of arbitration costs and fees; joinder of parties and consolidation of proceedings admission; and appointment of an emergency arbitrator. Lastly, this report analyzes some decisions delivered by the President in the respective institutional procedures which took place in the Centre.

As peculiaridades da democratização da região do Cáucaso do Sul no contexto da Política Europeia de Vizinhança

O período após o colapso da União Soviética foi o tempo da procura de novas identidades na nova realidade e de escolha de novos parceiros e aliados, o tempo da construção de novos estados e de formulação das regras e normas nacionais. Após o desmoronamento da ideologia soviética - um facto reconhecido oficialmente durante o período da Perestroika –, as pessoas sentiram uma necessidade de preencher o vácuo ideológico e desenvolver uma nova identidade. Foi proclamada a rejeição da estrutura política administrativa herdada da União Soviética e do sistema de economia planificada, e desenvolvida a tendência para a construção do estado democrático fundado numa economia de mercado. As expectativas relativas às transformações no período pós-soviético estavam relacionadas com o Ocidente (EUA e UE), e a construção do estado soberano foi fundada em modelos ocidentais de estado de direito, ‘boa governança’ e a economia de mercado. A UE desempenhou um papel importante na democratização dos estados da região do Sul do Cáucaso através de vários projetos e programas bilaterais e multilaterais no âmbito da Política Europeia de Vizinhança e da Parceria Oriental. Embora as reformas democráticas tenham sido realizadas com vista ao estabelecimento de uma Constituição democrática, à implementação de eleições democráticas e ao desenvolvimento da sociedade civil, fortaleceram, também, ainda mais, a natureza autoritária do poder, impediram a criação de um estado de direito, reforçaram violação dos direitos e das liberdades humanas. (NODIYA, 2003: 30; BAKHMAN, 2003: 17; BADALOV, 2003: 20). Deste modo, o processo da promoção da democracia através das reformas nos três estados do Sul do Cáucaso conduziu à criação de estados de “conteúdo autocrático misto, mas de forma democrática” (CHETERYAN, 2003: 41). Embora seja possível identificar as semelhanças entre os três estados da região do Sul do Cáucaso nas reformas do processo de desenvolvimento, os métodos e meios de implementação de reformas nas realidades dos estados regionais pela administração nacional foram bastante diferentes, por razões associadas às especificidades de cada um (DELCOUR e WOLCZUK, 2013: 3). Cada país é caracterizado pelas suas peculiaridades ao nível da situação geopolítica e diversidade do potencial económico – fatores que definem a trajetória política e económica do estado no período pós-soviético e, em certa medida, influenciam o modo como se desenvolvem as relações com a UE e, portanto, o processo de adoção das reformas e a sua introdução a nível nacional.

The electoral dynamics of human development

This paper analyses the impact of elections on the dynamics of human development in a panel of 82 countries over the period 1980-2013. The incidence of partisan and political support effects is also taken into account. A GMM estimator is employed in the empirical analysis and the results point out to the presence of an electoral cycle in the growth rate of human development. Majority governments also influence it, but no clear evidence is found regarding partisan effects. The electoral cycles have proved to be stronger in non-OECD countries, in countries with less frequent elections, with lower levels of income and human development, in presidential and non-plurality systems and in proportional representation regimes. They have also become more intense in this millennium.

Of Coalition and Speed: Passage and Duration of Statutes in Uruguay's Parliament, 1985-2000

We report preliminary findings from analysis of a database under construction. The paper explores the legislative process in search for some of the alleged consequences of cabinet coalitions in a presidential system. Coalition effects should be less evident in the success of executive initiatives: strategic behavior hampers this intuitive measure of performance. Better measures, because less subject to strategic considerations, are the odds of passage of legislators' bills and the time proposals take to be approved. Thus measured, coalition effects are discernible. Analysis of the universe of proposals processed in the fragmented Uruguayan Parliament between 1985 and 2000 reveals that coalition, observed about half the period, swells success rates of coalition members by 60% on average (and by as much as 150% for those close to the president). Event history analysis shows that coalitions cut the wait for an executive bill by 3 months, 1/6th the average wait. The reverse effect is felt on the duration of legislators' bills.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

El naturalismo científico en la obra de John Tyndall: Fragments of science

El análisis de los ensayos de John Tyndall, Fragments of Science, permite identificar la teoría atómica, el principio de conservación de la energía y el evolucionismo darwinista como los elementos constitutivos del andamiaje teórico del naturalismo científico. Así, en su ensayo “On the Study of Physics” se resumen sus brillantes facetas como educador y divulgador científico, desarrolladas fundamentalmente en el seno de la Royal Institution. En la lectura “On Force”, Tyndall da por finalizada la controversia Joule- Mayer sobre la primacía del descubrimiento del principio de conservación de la energía, a la vez que plantea algunas de las claves de la lucha por el liderazgo en el seno de la comunidad científica. El discurso presidencial ante la British Association de 1874 en Belfast ejemplifica el coraje de Tyndall en su empeño por demarcar los territorios de la ciencia y la religión, a la luz de los nuevos desafíos científicos. En el trasfondo subyacen los procesos de secularización de la sociedad y de profesionalización de una comunidad científica heterogénea. El compromiso cívico que Tyndall demuestra en “The Belfast Address” es digno corolario de una vida y obra que permite situarlo como paradigma de lo que, en la terminología de Turner, se ha dado en denominar científico público.

A Political Agency Model of Coattail Voting

In this paper, I provide a formal justi…cation for a well-established coattail effect, when a popular candidate at one branch of government attracts votes to candidates from the same political party for other branches of government. A political agency frame- work with moral hazard is applied to analyze coattails in simultaneous presidential and congressional elections. I show that coattail voting is a natural outcome of the optimal reelection scheme adopted by a representative voter to motivate politicians' efforts in a retrospective voting environment. I assume that an office-motivated politician (executive or congressman) prefers her counterpart to be affiliated with the same political party. This correlation of incentives leads the voter to adopt a joint performance evaluation rule, which is conditioned on the politicians belonging to the same party or different parties. The two-sided coattail effects then arise. On the one hand, the executive's suc- cess/failure props up/drags down her partisan ally in congressional election, which implies presidential coattails. On the other hand, the executive's reelection itself is affected by the congressman's performance, which results in reverse coattails. JEL classi…fication: D72, D86. Keywords: Coattail voting; Presidential coattails; Reverse coattails; Simultaneous elections; Political Agency; Retrospective voting.

Une approche strategique du vote : à propos de « vote par appobation, vote par note »

Ce texte a pour ambition de revenir sur une procédure d'expérimentation destinée à tester l'impact du vote par approbation ainsi que du vote par note sur l'ampleur de ce qu'on a coutume d'appeler le vote utile. Les résultats de ces expériences, menées lors des élections présidentielles françaises de 2007 et de 2012, ont fait l'objet de deux articles publiés dans la Revue économique. Notre objectif est ici d'attirer l'attention du lecteur sur la conception implicite qui sous-tend ces expériences : le vote comme outil de dévoilement des préférences individuelles. Une telle orientation se fait au détriment d'une conception stratégique du vote, c'est-à-dire le vote comme processus de coordination. Or, il nous semble que le propre du vote utile est précisément de s'inscrire dans une dimension stratégique du vote, dimension que la procédure expérimentale mise en place tend à gommer en ne fournissant pas aux votants de repères informationnels relatifs aux choix des autres votants. On parlera à cet effet d'isolation informationnelle. This text has the ambition to return to an experimental procedure designed to test the impact of approval voting as well as evaluating voting on the scope of what is called in French vote utile (strategic voting). The results of these experiences, held during the 2007 and 2012 French presidential elections, have been the object of two papers published in the Revue économique. Our aim is to catch the attention of readers on the implicit conception inherent to these experiences: voting as a means to reveal individual preferences. Such a direction is taken at the cost of a strategic conception of voting, i.e. voting as a coordination process. Yet, it seems to us that the main characteristic of strategic voting is precisely to be strategic. The design of the experimental procedure tends to erase this dimension, by depriving the voters of information on other voter's choices. This is what we call informational isolation.

Conditional compositional biplots: theory and application

The biplot has proved to be a powerful descriptive and analytical tool in many areasof applications of statistics. For compositional data the necessary theoreticaladaptation has been provided, with illustrative applications, by Aitchison (1990) andAitchison and Greenacre (2002). These papers were restricted to the interpretation ofsimple compositional data sets. In many situations the problem has to be described insome form of conditional modelling. For example, in a clinical trial where interest isin how patients’ steroid metabolite compositions may change as a result of differenttreatment regimes, interest is in relating the compositions after treatment to thecompositions before treatment and the nature of the treatments applied. To study thisthrough a biplot technique requires the development of some form of conditionalcompositional biplot. This is the purpose of this paper. We choose as a motivatingapplication an analysis of the 1992 US President ial Election, where interest may be inhow the three-part composition, the percentage division among the three candidates -Bush, Clinton and Perot - of the presidential vote in each state, depends on the ethniccomposition and on the urban-rural composition of the state. The methodology ofconditional compositional biplots is first developed and a detailed interpretation of the1992 US Presidential Election provided. We use a second application involving theconditional variability of tektite mineral compositions with respect to major oxidecompositions to demonstrate some hazards of simplistic interpretation of biplots.Finally we conjecture on further possible applications of conditional compositionalbiplots

Policy Making in Divided Government. A Pivotal Actors Model with Party Discipline.

This article presents a formal model of policy decision-making in an institutional framework of separation of powers in which the main actors are pivotal political parties with voting discipline. The basic model previously developed from pivotal politics theory for the analysis of the United States lawmaking is here modified to account for policy outcomes and institutional performances in other presidential regimes, especially in Latin America. Legislators' party indiscipline at voting and multi-partism appear as favorable conditions to reduce the size of the equilibrium set containing collectively inefficient outcomes, while a two-party system with strong party discipline is most prone to produce 'gridlock', that is, stability of socially inefficient policies. The article provides a framework for analysis which can induce significant revisions of empirical data, especially regarding the effects of situations of (newly defined) unified and divided government, different decision rules, the number of parties and their discipline. These implications should be testable and may inspire future analytical and empirical work.