Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Generation next : post-cinema Australian moviemaking, innovation and implications for cultural policy

The Australian screen industries are a leading domestic creative industry sector at a crossroad. New production, distribution and exhibition technologies are challenging traditional models of ‘filmmaking’. For the screen industries to remain competitive they must renovate business models for an emerging marketplace. This paper is a preliminary examination of three key aspects of next generation filmmaking: post-cinema approaches to screen production, emerging production and business models, and issues for policy.

Post-WTO China : competition and technology transfer laws in the 'new' socialist market economy

China has been the focus of much academic and business scrutiny of late. Its economic climate is changing and its huge new market opportunities seem quite tantalizing to the would-be 'technology entrepreneur'. But China's market is a relatively immature one; it is still in the process of being opened up to real competition. The corollary of this is that, at this stage of the transitional process, there is still significant State control of market function. This article discusses Chinese competition law, the technology transfer system, how the laws are being reformed and how the technology entrepreneur fares under them. The bottom line is that while opportunities beckon, the wise entrepreneur will nevertheless continue to exercise caution.

An examination of the base rates of post-concussion symptoms : the influence of demographics and depression

Post-concussion syndrome (PCS) is a controversial constellation of cognitive, emotional, and physical symptoms that some patients experience following a mild traumatic brain injury or concussion. PCS-like symptoms are commonly found in individuals with depression, pain, and stress, as well as healthy individuals. This study investigated the base rate of PCS symptoms in a healthy sample of 96 participants and examined the relationship between these symptoms, depression, and sample demographics. PCS symptoms were assessed using the British-Columbia Post-Concussion Symptom Inventory. Depression was measured using the Beck Depression Inventory II. Results demonstrated that: The base rate of PCS was very high; there was a strong positive relationship between depression and PCS; and demographic characteristics were not related to PCS in this sample. These findings are broadly consistent with literature suggesting a significant role for non-neurological factors in the expression of PCS symptomatology. This study adds to the growing body of literature that calls for caution in the clinical interpretation of results from PCS symptom inventories.

Low sodium haemodialysis reduces interdialytic fluid consumption but paradoxically increases post-dialysis thirst

Background Interdialytic weight gain (IDWG) can be reduced by lowering the dialysate sodium concentration ([Na]) in haemodialysis patients. It has been assumed that this is because thirst is reduced, although this has been difficult to prove. We compared thirst patterns in stable haemodialysis patients with high and low IDWG using a novel technique and compared the effect of low sodium dialysis (LSD) with normal sodium dialysis (NSD). Methods Eight patients with initial high IDWG and seven with low IDWG completed hourly visual analogue ratings of thirst using a modified palmtop computer during the dialysis day and the interdialytic day. The dialysate [Na] was progressively reduced by up to 5 mmol/l over five treatments. Dialysis continued at the lowest attained [Na] for 2 weeks and the measurements were repeated. The dialysate [Na] then returned to baseline and the process was repeated. Results Baseline interdialytic day mean thirst was higher than the dialysis day mean for the high IDWG group (49.9±14.0 vs 36.2±16.6) and higher than the low weight gain group (49.9±14.0 vs 34.1±14.6). This trend persisted on LSD, but there was a pronounced increase in post-dialysis thirst scores for both groups (high IDWG: 46±13 vs 30±21; low IDWG: 48±24 vs 33±18). The high IDWG group demonstrated lower IDWG during LSD than NSD (2.23±0.98 vs 2.86±0.38 kg; P<0.05). Conclusions Our results indicate that patients with high IDWG experience more intense feelings of thirst on the interdialytic day. LSD reduces their IDWG, but paradoxically increases thirst in the immediate post-dialysis period.

Differences in post-prandial responses to fat and carbohydrate loads in habitual high and low fat consumers (phenotypes).

The present study investigated metabolic responses to fat and carbohydrate ingestion in lean male individuals consuming an habitual diet high or low in fat. Twelve high-fat phenotypes (HF) and twelve low-fat phenotypes (LF) participated in the study. Energy intake and macronutrient intake variables were assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. Resting (RMR) and postprandial metabolic rate and substrate oxidation (respiratory quotient; RQ) were measured by indirect calorimetry. HF had a significantly higher RMR and higher resting heart rate than LF. These variables remained higher in HF following the macronutrient challenge. In all subjects the carbohydrate load increased metabolic rate and heart rate significantly more than the fat load. Fat oxidation (indicated by a low RQ) was significantly higher in HF than in LF following the fat load; the ability to oxidise a high carbohydrate load did not differ between the groups. Lean male subjects consuming a diet high in fat were associated with increased energy expenditure at rest and a relatively higher fat oxidation in response to a high fat load; these observations may be partly responsible for maintaining energy balance on a high-fat (high-energy) diet. In contrast, a low consumer of fat is associated with relatively lower energy expenditure at rest and lower fat oxidation, which has implications for weight gain if high-fat foods or meals are periodically introduced to the diet.

Post-tensioning and its effect on multi-level formwork load distribution

Multi-level concrete buildings requrre substantial temporary formwork structures to support the slabs during construction. The primary function of this formwork is to safely disperse the applied loads so that the slab being constructed, or the portion of the permanent structure already constructed, is not overloaded. Multi-level formwork is a procedure in which a limited number of formwork and shoring sets are cycled up the building as construction progresses. In this process, each new slab is supported by a number of lower level slabs. The new slab load is, essentially, distributed to these supporting slabs in direct proportion to their relative stiffness. When a slab is post-tensioned using draped tendons, slab lift occurs as a portion of the slab self-weight is balanced. The formwork and shores supporting that slab are unloaded by an amount equivalent to the load balanced by the post-tensioning. This produces a load distribution inherently different from that of a conventionally reinforced slab. Through , theoretical modelling and extensive on-site shore load measurement, this research examines the effects of post-tensioning on multilevel formwork load distribution. The research demonstrates that the load distribution process for post-tensioned slabs allows for improvements to current construction practice. These enhancements include a shortening of the construction period; an improvement in the safety of multi-level form work operations; and a reduction in the quantity of form work materials required for a project. These enhancements are achieved through the general improvement in safety offered by post-tensioning during the various formwork operations. The research demonstrates that there is generally a significant improvement in the factors of safety over those for conventionally reinforced slabs. This improvement in the factor of safety occurs at all stages of the multi-level formwork operation. The general improvement in the factors of safety with post-tensioned slabs allows for a shortening of the slab construction cycle time. Further, the low level of load redistribution that occurs during the stripping operations makes post-tensioned slabs ideally suited to reshoring procedures. Provided the overall number of interconnected levels remains unaltered, it is possible to increase the number of reshored levels while reducing the number of undisturbed shoring levels without altering the factors of safety, thereby, reducing the overall quantity of formwork and shoring materials.

The development of science concepts emergent from science museum and post-visit activity experiences : students' construction of knowledge

This research investigated students' construction of knowledge about the topics of magnetism and electricity emergent from a visit to an interactive science centre and subsequent classroom-based activities linked to the science centre exhibits. The significance of this study is that it analyses critically an aspect of school visits to informal learning centres that has been neglected by researchers in the past, namely the influence of post-visit activities in the classroom on subsequent learning and knowledge construction. Employing an interpretive methodology, the study focused on three areas of endeavour. Firstly, the establishment of a set of principles for the development of post-visit activities, from a constructivist framework, to facilitate students' learning of science. Secondly, to describe and interpret students' scientific understandings : prior t o a visit t o a science museum; following a visit t o a science museum; and following post-visit activities that were related to their museum experiences. Finally, to describe and interpret the ways in which students constructed their understandings: prior to a visit to a science museum; following a visit to a science museum; and following post-visit activities directly related to their museum experiences. The study was designed and implemented in three stages: 1) identification and establishment of the principles for design and evaluation of post-visit activities; 2) a pilot study of specific post-visit activities and data gathering strategies related to student construction of knowledge; and 3) interpretation of students' construction of knowledge from a visit to a science museum and subsequent completion of post-visit activities, which constituted the main study. Twelve students were selected from a year 7 class to participate in the study. This study provides evidence that the series of post-visit activities, related to the museum experiences, resulted in students constructing and reconstructing their personal knowledge of science concepts and principles represented in the science museum exhibits, sometimes towards the accepted scientific understanding and sometimes in different and surprising ways. Findings demonstrate the interrelationships between learning that occurs at school, at home and in informal learning settings. The study also underscores for teachers and staff of science museums and similar centres the importance of planning pre- and post-visit activities, not only to support the development of scientific conceptions, but also to detect and respond to alternative conceptions that may be produced or strengthened during a visit to an informal learning centre. Consistent with contemporary views of constructivism, the study strongly supports the views that : 1) knowledge is uniquely structured by the individual; 2) the processes of knowledge construction are gradual, incremental, and assimilative in nature; 3) changes in conceptual understanding are can be interpreted in the light of prior knowledge and understanding; and 4) knowledge and understanding develop idiosyncratically, progressing and sometimes appearing to regress when compared with contemporary science. This study has implications for teachers, students, museum educators, and the science education community given the lack of research into the processes of knowledge construction in informal contexts and the roles that post-visit activities play in the overall process of learning.