Development of a model based on Bayesian networks to estimate the probability of sheep lice presence at shearing

This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

Concepts and Object-Oriented Knowledge Representation

Tutkielma käsittelee nykyisiä kognitiotieteen teorioita käsitteistä ja niiden mallintamista oliokeskeisillä tietämyksen esittämisen menetelmillä. Käsiteteorioista käsitellään klassinen, määritelmäteoria, prototyyppiteoria, duaaliteoriat, uusklassinen teoria, teoria-teoria ja atomistinen teoria. Oliokeskeiset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina jakautuneet kahden tyyppisiin kieliin: oliopohjaisiin ja luokkapohjaisiin. Uudet olio-pohjaiset olio-ohjelmointikielet antavat käsitteiden representointiin mahdollisuuksia, jotka puuttuvat aikaisemmista luokka-pohjaisista kielistä ja myös kehysmenetelmistä. Tutkielma osoittaa, että oliopohjaisten kielten uudet piirteet tarjoavat keinoja, joilla käsitteitä voidaan esittää symbolisessa muodossa paremmin kuin perinteisillä menetelmillä. Niillä pystytään simuloimaan kaikkea mitä luokkapohjaisilla kielillä voidaan, mutta ne pystyvät lisäksi simuloimaan perheyhtäläisyyskäsitteitä ja mahdollistavat olioiden dynaamisen muuttamisen ilman, että siinä rikotaan psykologisen essentialismin periaatetta. Tutkielma osoittaa lisäksi vakavia puutteitta, jotka koskevat koko oliokeskeistä menetelmää. Avainsanat: käsitteet, käsiteteoriat, tekoäly, komputationaalinen psykologia, olio-ohjelmointi, tiedon esittäminen

Exact calculations of survival probability for diffusion on growing lines, disks, and spheres: The role of dimension

Unlike standard applications of transport theory, the transport of molecules and cells during embryonic development often takes place within growing multidimensional tissues. In this work, we consider a model of diffusion on uniformly growing lines, disks, and spheres. An exact solution of the partial differential equation governing the diffusion of a population of individuals on the growing domain is derived. Using this solution, we study the survival probability, S(t). For the standard nongrowing case with an absorbing boundary, we observe that S(t) decays to zero in the long time limit. In contrast, when the domain grows linearly or exponentially with time, we show that S(t) decays to a constant, positive value, indicating that a proportion of the diffusing substance remains on the growing domain indefinitely. Comparing S(t) for diffusion on lines, disks, and spheres indicates that there are minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of zero growth and minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of fast growth. In contrast, for intermediate growth rates, we observe modest differences in S(t) between different geometries. These differences can be quantified by evaluating the exact expressions derived and presented here.

Survival probability for a diffusive process on a growing domain

We consider the motion of a diffusive population on a growing domain, 0 < x < L(t ), which is motivated by various applications in developmental biology. Individuals in the diffusing population, which could represent molecules or cells in a developmental scenario, undergo two different kinds of motion: (i) undirected movement, characterized by a diffusion coefficient, D, and (ii) directed movement, associated with the underlying domain growth. For a general class of problems with a reflecting boundary at x = 0, and an absorbing boundary at x = L(t ), we provide an exact solution to the partial differential equation describing the evolution of the population density function, C(x,t ). Using this solution, we derive an exact expression for the survival probability, S(t ), and an accurate approximation for the long-time limit, S = limt→∞ S(t ). Unlike traditional analyses on a nongrowing domain, where S ≡ 0, we show that domain growth leads to a very different situation where S can be positive. The theoretical tools developed and validated in this study allow us to distinguish between situations where the diffusive population reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ) from other situations where the diffusive population never reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ). Making this distinction is relevant to certain applications in developmental biology, such as the development of the enteric nervous system (ENS). All theoretical predictions are verified by implementing a discrete stochastic model.

A new formalism for representation of binary thermodynamic data

The applicability of a formalism involving an exponential function of composition x1 in interpreting the thermodynamic properties of alloys has been studied. The excess integral and partial molar free energies of mixing are expressed as: $$\begin{gathered} \Delta F^{xs} = a_o x_1 (1 - x_1 )e^{bx_1 } \hfill \\ RTln\gamma _1 = a_o (1 - x_1 )^2 (1 + bx_1 )e^{bx_1 } \hfill \\ RTln\gamma _2 = a_o x_1^2 (1 - b + bx_1 )e^{bx_1 } \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ The equations are used in interpreting experimental data for several relatively weakly interacting binary systems. For the purpose of comparison, activity coefficients obtained by the subregular model and Krupkowski’s formalism have also been computed. The present equations may be considered to be convenient in describing the thermodynamic behavior of metallic solutions.

Representation and properties of para-Bose oscillator operators. II. Coherent states and the minimum uncertainty states

The energy, position, and momentum eigenstates of a para-Bose oscillator system were considered in paper I. Here we consider the Bargmann or the analytic function description of the para-Bose system. This brings in, in a natural way, the coherent states ||z;alpha> defined as the eigenstates of the annihilation operator ?. The transformation functions relating this description to the energy, position, and momentum eigenstates are explicitly obtained. Possible resolution of the identity operator using coherent states is examined. A particular resolution contains two integrals, one containing the diagonal basis ||z;alpha><−z;alpha||. We briefly consider the normal and antinormal ordering of the operators and their diagonal and discrete diagonal coherent state approximations. The problem of constructing states with a minimum value of the product of the position and momentum uncertainties and the possible alpha dependence of this minimum value is considered. Journal of Mathematical Physics is copyrighted by The American Institute of Physics.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders’ bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder’s probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

On the probability of dizygotic twins being concordant for two alleles at multiple polymorphic loci

Accurate determination of same-sex twin zygosity is important for medical, scientific and personal reasons. Determination may be based upon questionnaire data, blood group, enzyme isoforms and fetal membrane examination, but assignment of zygosity must ultimately be confirmed by genotypic data. Here methods are reviewed for calculating average probabilities of correctly concluding a twin pair is monozygotic, given they share the same genotypes across all loci for commonly utilized multiplex short tandem repeat (STR) kits.

Representation of Stereoisomers in ALWIN

Tlhe well-known Cahn-lngold-Prelog method of specifying the stereoisomers is introduced within the framework of ALWIN-Algorithmic Wiswesser Notation. Given the structural diagram, the structural ALWIN is first formed; the speclflcation symbols are then introduced at the appropriate places to describe the stereoisomers.

On Random Planar Curves and Their Scaling Limits

Planar curves arise naturally as interfaces between two regions of the plane. An important part of statistical physics is the study of lattice models. This thesis is about the interfaces of 2D lattice models. The scaling limit is an infinite system limit which is taken by letting the lattice mesh decrease to zero. At criticality, the scaling limit of an interface is one of the SLE curves (Schramm-Loewner evolution), introduced by Oded Schramm. This family of random curves is parametrized by a real variable, which determines the universality class of the model. The first and the second paper of this thesis study properties of SLEs. They contain two different methods to study the whole SLE curve, which is, in fact, the most interesting object from the statistical physics point of view. These methods are applied to study two symmetries of SLE: reversibility and duality. The first paper uses an algebraic method and a representation of the Virasoro algebra to find common martingales to different processes, and that way, to confirm the symmetries for polynomial expected values of natural SLE data. In the second paper, a recursion is obtained for the same kind of expected values. The recursion is based on stationarity of the law of the whole SLE curve under a SLE induced flow. The third paper deals with one of the most central questions of the field and provides a framework of estimates for describing 2D scaling limits by SLE curves. In particular, it is shown that a weak estimate on the probability of an annulus crossing implies that a random curve arising from a statistical physics model will have scaling limits and those will be well-described by Loewner evolutions with random driving forces.

Multiple instance dictionary learning for activity representation

This paper presents an effective feature representation method in the context of activity recognition. Efficient and effective feature representation plays a crucial role not only in activity recognition, but also in a wide range of applications such as motion analysis, tracking, 3D scene understanding etc. In the context of activity recognition, local features are increasingly popular for representing videos because of their simplicity and efficiency. While they achieve state-of-the-art performance with low computational requirements, their performance is still limited for real world applications due to a lack of contextual information and models not being tailored to specific activities. We propose a new activity representation framework to address the shortcomings of the popular, but simple bag-of-words approach. In our framework, first multiple instance SVM (mi-SVM) is used to identify positive features for each action category and the k-means algorithm is used to generate a codebook. Then locality-constrained linear coding is used to encode the features into the generated codebook, followed by spatio-temporal pyramid pooling to convey the spatio-temporal statistics. Finally, an SVM is used to classify the videos. Experiments carried out on two popular datasets with varying complexity demonstrate significant performance improvement over the base-line bag-of-feature method.

Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

New light on the optical equivalence theorem and a new type of discrete diagonal coherent state representation

In many instances we find it advantageous to display a quantum optical density matrix as a generalized statistical ensemble of coherent wave fields. The weight functions involved in these constructions turn out to belong to a family of distributions, not always smooth functions. In this paper we investigate this question anew and show how it is related to the problem of expanding an arbitrary state in terms of an overcomplete subfamily of the overcomplete set of coherent states. This provides a relatively transparent derivation of the optical equivalence theorem. An interesting by-product is the discovery of a new class of discrete diagonal representations.