957 resultados para OPTIMAL CONTROL


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Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

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The RuskSkinner formalism was developed in order to give a geometrical unified formalism for describing mechanical systems. It incorporates all the characteristics of Lagrangian and Hamiltonian descriptions of these systems (including dynamical equations and solutions, constraints, Legendre map, evolution operators, equivalence, etc.). In this work we extend this unified framework to first-order classical field theories, and show how this description comprises the main features of the Lagrangian and Hamiltonian formalisms, both for the regular and singular cases. This formulation is a first step toward further applications in optimal control theory for partial differential equations. 2004 American Institute of Physics.

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The application of forced unsteady-state reactors in case of selective catalytic reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOx) with ammonia (NH3) is sustained by the fact that favorable temperature and composition distributions which cannot be achieved in any steady-state regime can be obtained by means of unsteady-state operations. In a normal way of operation the low exothermicity of the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) reaction (usually carried out in the range of 280-350°C) is not enough to maintain by itself the chemical reaction. A normal mode of operation usually requires supply of supplementary heat increasing in this way the overall process operation cost. Through forced unsteady-state operation, the main advantage that can be obtained when exothermic reactions take place is the possibility of trapping, beside the ammonia, the moving heat wave inside the catalytic bed. The unsteady state-operation enables the exploitation of the thermal storage capacity of the catalyticbed. The catalytic bed acts as a regenerative heat exchanger allowing auto-thermal behaviour when the adiabatic temperature rise is low. Finding the optimum reactor configuration, employing the most suitable operation model and identifying the reactor behavior are highly important steps in order to configure a proper device for industrial applications. The Reverse Flow Reactor (RFR) - a forced unsteady state reactor - corresponds to the above mentioned characteristics and may be employed as an efficient device for the treatment of dilute pollutant mixtures. As a main disadvantage, beside its advantages, the RFR presents the 'wash out' phenomena. This phenomenon represents emissions of unconverted reactants at every switch of the flow direction. As a consequence our attention was focused on finding an alternative reactor configuration for RFR which is not affected by the incontrollable emissions of unconverted reactants. In this respect the Reactor Network (RN) was investigated. Its configuration consists of several reactors connected in a closed sequence, simulating a moving bed by changing the reactants feeding position. In the RN the flow direction is maintained in the same way ensuring uniformcatalyst exploitation and in the same time the 'wash out' phenomena is annulated. The simulated moving bed (SMB) can operate in transient mode giving practically constant exit concentration and high conversion levels. The main advantage of the reactor network operation is emphasizedby the possibility to obtain auto-thermal behavior with nearly uniformcatalyst utilization. However, the reactor network presents only a small range of switching times which allow to reach and to maintain an ignited state. Even so a proper study of the complex behavior of the RN may give the necessary information to overcome all the difficulties that can appear in the RN operation. The unsteady-state reactors complexity arises from the fact that these reactor types are characterized by short contact times and complex interaction between heat and mass transportphenomena. Such complex interactions can give rise to a remarkable complex dynamic behavior characterized by a set of spatial-temporal patterns, chaotic changes in concentration and traveling waves of heat or chemical reactivity. The main efforts of the current research studies concern the improvement of contact modalities between reactants, the possibility of thermal wave storage inside the reactor and the improvement of the kinetic activity of the catalyst used. Paying attention to the above mentioned aspects is important when higher activity even at low feeding temperatures and low emissions of unconverted reactants are the main operation concerns. Also, the prediction of the reactor pseudo or steady-state performance (regarding the conversion, selectivity and thermal behavior) and the dynamicreactor response during exploitation are important aspects in finding the optimal control strategy for the forced unsteady state catalytic tubular reactors. The design of an adapted reactor requires knowledge about the influence of its operating conditions on the overall process performance and a precise evaluation of the operating parameters rage for which a sustained dynamic behavior is obtained. An apriori estimation of the system parameters result in diminution of the computational efforts. Usually the convergence of unsteady state reactor systems requires integration over hundreds of cycles depending on the initial guess of the parameter values. The investigation of various operation models and thermal transfer strategies give reliable means to obtain recuperative and regenerative devices which are capable to maintain an auto-thermal behavior in case of low exothermic reactions. In the present research work a gradual analysis of the SCR of NOx with ammonia process in forced unsteady-state reactors was realized. The investigation covers the presentationof the general problematic related to the effect of noxious emissions in the environment, the analysis of the suitable catalysts types for the process, the mathematical analysis approach for modeling and finding the system solutions and the experimental investigation of the device found to be more suitable for the present process. In order to gain information about the forced unsteady state reactor design, operation, important system parameters and their values, mathematical description, mathematicalmethod for solving systems of partial differential equations and other specific aspects, in a fast and easy way, and a case based reasoning (CBR) approach has been used. This approach, using the experience of past similarproblems and their adapted solutions, may provide a method for gaining informations and solutions for new problems related to the forced unsteady state reactors technology. As a consequence a CBR system was implemented and a corresponding tool was developed. Further on, grooving up the hypothesis of isothermal operation, the investigation by means of numerical simulation of the feasibility of the SCR of NOx with ammonia in the RFRand in the RN with variable feeding position was realized. The hypothesis of non-isothermal operation was taken into account because in our opinion ifa commercial catalyst is considered, is not possible to modify the chemical activity and its adsorptive capacity to improve the operation butis possible to change the operation regime. In order to identify the most suitable device for the unsteady state reduction of NOx with ammonia, considering the perspective of recuperative and regenerative devices, a comparative analysis of the above mentioned two devices performance was realized. The assumption of isothermal conditions in the beginningof the forced unsteadystate investigation allowed the simplification of the analysis enabling to focus on the impact of the conditions and mode of operation on the dynamic features caused by the trapping of one reactant in the reactor, without considering the impact of thermal effect on overall reactor performance. The non-isothermal system approach has been investigated in order to point out the important influence of the thermal effect on overall reactor performance, studying the possibility of RFR and RN utilization as recuperative and regenerative devices and the possibility of achieving a sustained auto-thermal behavior in case of lowexothermic reaction of SCR of NOx with ammonia and low temperature gasfeeding. Beside the influence of the thermal effect, the influence of the principal operating parameters, as switching time, inlet flow rate and initial catalyst temperature have been stressed. This analysis is important not only because it allows a comparison between the two devices and optimisation of the operation, but also the switching time is the main operating parameter. An appropriate choice of this parameter enables the fulfilment of the process constraints. The level of the conversions achieved, the more uniform temperature profiles, the uniformity ofcatalyst exploitation and the much simpler mode of operation imposed the RN as a much more suitable device for SCR of NOx with ammonia, in usual operation and also in the perspective of control strategy implementation. Theoretical simplified models have also been proposed in order to describe the forced unsteady state reactors performance and to estimate their internal temperature and concentration profiles. The general idea was to extend the study of catalytic reactor dynamics taking into account the perspectives that haven't been analyzed yet. The experimental investigation ofRN revealed a good agreement between the data obtained by model simulation and the ones obtained experimentally.

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A method for dealing with monotonicity constraints in optimal control problems is used to generalize some results in the context of monopoly theory, also extending the generalization to a large family of principal-agent programs. Our main conclusion is that many results on diverse economic topics, achieved under assumptions of continuity and piecewise differentiability in connection with the endogenous variables of the problem, still remain valid after replacing such assumptions by two minimal requirements.

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Työssä rakennettiin integroitu simulointimalli sähkökäytölle, jonka mekaniikka koostuu joustava-akselisesta kaksimassa systeemistä. Lisäksi tarkasteltiin kyseiselle sähkökäytölle ominaisia piirteitä ja niiden aiheuttamia ongelmia eri sovelluksissa, sekä tutkittiin teollisuudessa yleisesti esiintyvän pyörimisnopeussäädön, PI-säädön, parametrien vaikutusta kyseisen mekaniikan omaaviin sähkökäyttöihin. Taajuusmuuttajalle kehiteltiin yksinkertaistettu simulointimalli, jolla pystytään pienentämään merkittävästi simuloinnin laskenta-aikaa. Vääntövärähtelyiden kompensointiin tutkittiin optimaalista tilasäätöä, jossa Kalman suotimella estimoidaan systeemin tilojen lisäksi myös kuormamomentti ja jossa nopeussäätö suunnitellaan lineaarisella neliöllisellä menetelmällä (Linear Quadratic).

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Työssä pyrittiin etsimään differentiaalievoluutioalgoritmilla kaksiakseliselle, välijäähdytyksellä, välipoltolla ja rekuperaattorilla varustetulle mikrokaasuturbiinille sellaiset kompressorien painesuhteet ja rekuperaattorin rekuperaatioaste, että saavutettaisiin mandollisimman hyvä osakuormahyötysuhteen säilyvyys. Osakuormatehon säätömenetelmäksi oli valittu pyörimisnopeussäädön ja turbiinien sisääntulolämpötilan alentamisen yhdistelmä, jossa generaattorilla varustetun akselin pyörimisnopeus sekä molempien turbiinien sisääntulolämpötilat olivat toisistaan riippumatta vapaasti säädettävissä. Työssä löydettiin optimaalinen säätömenetelmien yhdistelmä, jolla saavutetaan parempi osakuormahyötysuhteen säilyvyys, kuin millään käytetyistä menetelmistä yksinään. Lisäksi havaittiin, ettei optimaalinen säätömenetelmä merkittävästi riipu koneikolle valituista suunnittelupisteen parametreista. Osakuormahyötysuhteen säilyvyyden kannalta optimaalinen koneikko ei merkittävästi poikennut suunnittelupisteen hyötysuhteen kannalta optimaalisesta.

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This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

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Les pères s’impliquent aujourd’hui davantage qu’auparavant auprès de leurs enfants. À l’âge préscolaire, les jeux physiques (incluant les jeux de bataille) sont une caractéristique distinctive du style paternel d’interaction. Quelques études tendent à suggérer un lien entre ce type de jeu et l’adaptation sociale des enfants. Cependant,des contradictions se dégagent de la littérature, notamment quant au lien entre la quantité de jeu physique père-enfant et des mesures d’adaptation sociale, quant aux différentes opérationnalisations de la qualité du jeu physique, ainsi qu’en ce qui a trait au genre de l’enfant. Il y a également un débat entourant le degré optimal de contrôle ou de mutualité) au cours du jeu, de même qu’un nombre très limité d’études sur le lien entre le jeu physique père-enfant et l’anxiété/retrait. Dans ce contexte de divergences entre les chercheurs, la présente thèse vise quatre objectifs, soit : 1)vérifier si la quantité de jeux de bataille père-enfant est liée à l’adaptation sociale des enfants d’âge préscolaire (via des mesures de compétence sociale, d’agressivité/irritabilité, d’agression physique et d’anxiété/retrait); 2) tester si des mesures de mutualité ou de contrôle modèrent la relation entre la quantité de jeux de bataille père-enfant et les mesures d’adaptation sociale; 3) explorer le rôle potentiel d’autres indices de qualité du jeu de bataille; 4) clarifier le rôle du genre de l’enfant. L’échantillon est composé de 100 dyades père-enfant de Montréal et les environs. Les résultats des analyses corrélationnelles suggèrent que la fréquence et la durée de jeu de bataille ne sont pas reliées directement à l’adaptation sociale des enfants et mettent en lumière des variables qui pourraient jouer un rôle modérateur. Les régressions pour modèles modérateurs indiquent que la mutualité père-enfant dans les initiations au jeu de bataille et la peur exprimée par l’enfant au cours de ce type de jeu modèrent la relation entre la durée des jeux de bataille et la compétence sociale de l’enfant d’âge préscolaire. La mutualité modère également le lien entre la durée du jeu et l’agressivité/irritabilité de l’enfant. Les initiations autoritaires faites par le père modèrent le lien entre la durée du jeu et les agressions physiques, alors qu’aucune variable ne modère le lien entre la durée du jeu et l’anxiété/retrait des enfants. Les analyses post-hoc donnent davantage d’informations sur la nature des liens de modération. Bien que les pères rapportent ne pas faire davantage de jeux de bataille, ni jouer plus longtemps à se batailler avec leurs garçons qu’avec leurs filles, trois modèles modérateurs sur quatre demeurent significatifs uniquement pour les garçons. Ces données sont interprétées à la lumière des théories éthologique et développementale. Il est suggéré que plutôt que de traiter l’agression et la compétence sociale comme des variables opposées de l’adaptation, une mesure de compétition permettrait peut-être de réconcilier les deux mondes.

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Nous considérons des processus de diffusion, définis par des équations différentielles stochastiques, et puis nous nous intéressons à des problèmes de premier passage pour les chaînes de Markov en temps discret correspon- dant à ces processus de diffusion. Comme il est connu dans la littérature, ces chaînes convergent en loi vers la solution des équations différentielles stochas- tiques considérées. Notre contribution consiste à trouver des formules expli- cites pour la probabilité de premier passage et la durée de la partie pour ces chaînes de Markov à temps discret. Nous montrons aussi que les résultats ob- tenus convergent selon la métrique euclidienne (i.e topologie euclidienne) vers les quantités correspondantes pour les processus de diffusion. En dernier lieu, nous étudions un problème de commande optimale pour des chaînes de Markov en temps discret. L’objectif est de trouver la valeur qui mi- nimise l’espérance mathématique d’une certaine fonction de coût. Contraire- ment au cas continu, il n’existe pas de formule explicite pour cette valeur op- timale dans le cas discret. Ainsi, nous avons étudié dans cette thèse quelques cas particuliers pour lesquels nous avons trouvé cette valeur optimale.

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Cette thèse est divisée en deux grands chapitres, dont le premier porte sur des problèmes de commande optimale en dimension un et le deuxième sur des problèmes en dimension deux ou plus. Notons bien que, dans cette thèse, nous avons supposé que le facteur temps n'intervient pas. Dans le premier chapitre, nous calculons, au début, l'équation de programmation dynamique pour la valeur minimale F de l'espérance mathématique de la fonction de coût considérée. Ensuite, nous utilisons le théorème de Whittle qui est applicable seulement si une condition entre le bruit blanc v et les termes b et q associés à la commande est satisfaite. Sinon, nous procédons autrement. En effet, un changement de variable transforme notre équation en une équation de Riccati en G= F', mais sans conditions initiales. Dans certains cas, à partir de la symétrie des paramètres infinitésimaux et de q, nous pouvons en déduire le point x' où G(x')=0. Si ce n'est pas le cas, nous nous limitons à des bonnes approximations. Cette même démarche est toujours possible si nous sommes dans des situations particulières, par exemple, lorsque nous avons une seule barrière. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous traitons les problèmes en dimension deux ou plus. Puisque la condition de Whittle est difficile à satisfaire dans ce cas, nous essayons de généraliser les résultats du premier chapitre. Nous utilisons alors dans quelques exemples la méthode des similitudes, qui permet de transformer le problème en dimension un. Ensuite, nous proposons une nouvelle méthode de résolution. Cette dernière linéarise l'équation de programmation dynamique qui est une équation aux dérivées partielles non linéaire. Il reste à la fin à trouver les conditions initiales pour la nouvelle fonction et aussi à vérifier que les n expressions obtenues pour F sont équivalentes.

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In dieser Arbeit werden nichtüberlappende Gebietszerlegungsmethoden einerseits hinsichtlich der zu lösenden Problemklassen verallgemeinert und andererseits in bisher nicht untersuchten Kontexten betrachtet. Dabei stehen funktionalanalytische Untersuchungen zur Wohldefiniertheit, eindeutigen Lösbarkeit und Konvergenz im Vordergrund. Im ersten Teil werden lineare elliptische Dirichlet-Randwertprobleme behandelt, wobei neben Problemen mit dominantem Hauptteil auch solche mit singulärer Störung desselben, wie konvektions- oder reaktionsdominante Probleme zugelassen sind. Der zweite Teil befasst sich mit (gleichmäßig) monotonen koerziven quasilinearen elliptischen Dirichlet-Randwertproblemen. In beiden Fällen wird das Lipschitz-Gebiet in endlich viele Lipschitz-Teilgebiete zerlegt, wobei insbesondere Kreuzungspunkte und Teilgebiete ohne Außenrand zugelassen sind. Anschließend werden Transmissionsprobleme mit frei wählbaren $L^{\infty}$-Parameterfunktionen hergeleitet, wobei die Konormalenableitungen als Funktionale auf geeigneten Funktionenräumen über den Teilrändern ($H_{00}^{1/2}(\Gamma)$) interpretiert werden. Die iterative Lösung dieser Transmissionsprobleme mit einem Ansatz von Deng führt auf eine Substrukturierungsmethode mit Robin-artigen Transmissionsbedingungen, bei der eine Auswertung der Konormalenableitungen aufgrund einer geschickten Aufdatierung der Robin-Daten nicht notwendig ist (insbesondere ist die bekannte Robin-Robin-Methode von Lions als Spezialfall enthalten). Die Konvergenz bezüglich einer partitionierten $H^1$-Norm wird für beide Problemklassen gezeigt. Dabei werden keine über $H^1$ hinausgehende Regularitätsforderungen an die Lösungen gestellt und die Gebiete müssen keine zusätzlichen Glattheitsvoraussetzungen erfüllen. Im letzten Kapitel werden nichtmonotone koerzive quasilineare Probleme untersucht, wobei das Zugrunde liegende Gebiet nur in zwei Lipschitz-Teilgebiete zerlegt sein soll. Das zugehörige nichtlineare Transmissionsproblem wird durch Kirchhoff-Transformation in lineare Teilprobleme mit nichtlinearen Kopplungsbedingungen überführt. Ein optimierungsbasierter Lösungsansatz, welcher einen geeigneten Abstand der rücktransformierten Dirichlet-Daten der linearen Teilprobleme auf den Teilrändern minimiert, führt auf ein optimales Kontrollproblem. Die dabei entstehenden regularisierten freien Minimierungsprobleme werden mit Hilfe eines Gradientenverfahrens unter minimalen Glattheitsforderungen an die Nichtlinearitäten gelöst. Unter zusätzlichen Glattheitsvoraussetzungen an die Nichtlinearitäten und weiteren technischen Voraussetzungen an die Lösung des quasilinearen Ausgangsproblems, kann zudem die quadratische Konvergenz des Newton-Verfahrens gesichert werden.

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The accurate transport of an ion over macroscopic distances represents a challenging control problem due to the different length and time scales that enter and the experimental limitations on the controls that need to be accounted for. Here, we investigate the performance of different control techniques for ion transport in state-of-the-art segmented miniaturized ion traps. We employ numerical optimization of classical trajectories and quantum wavepacket propagation as well as analytical solutions derived from invariant based inverse engineering and geometric optimal control. The applicability of each of the control methods depends on the length and time scales of the transport. Our comprehensive set of tools allows us make a number of observations. We find that accurate shuttling can be performed with operation times below the trap oscillation period. The maximum speed is limited by the maximum acceleration that can be exerted on the ion. When using controls obtained from classical dynamics for wavepacket propagation, wavepacket squeezing is the only quantum effect that comes into play for a large range of trapping parameters. We show that this can be corrected by a compensating force derived from invariant based inverse engineering, without a significant increase in the operation time.

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We are currently at the cusp of a revolution in quantum technology that relies not just on the passive use of quantum effects, but on their active control. At the forefront of this revolution is the implementation of a quantum computer. Encoding information in quantum states as “qubits” allows to use entanglement and quantum superposition to perform calculations that are infeasible on classical computers. The fundamental challenge in the realization of quantum computers is to avoid decoherence – the loss of quantum properties – due to unwanted interaction with the environment. This thesis addresses the problem of implementing entangling two-qubit quantum gates that are robust with respect to both decoherence and classical noise. It covers three aspects: the use of efficient numerical tools for the simulation and optimal control of open and closed quantum systems, the role of advanced optimization functionals in facilitating robustness, and the application of these techniques to two of the leading implementations of quantum computation, trapped atoms and superconducting circuits. After a review of the theoretical and numerical foundations, the central part of the thesis starts with the idea of using ensemble optimization to achieve robustness with respect to both classical fluctuations in the system parameters, and decoherence. For the example of a controlled phasegate implemented with trapped Rydberg atoms, this approach is demonstrated to yield a gate that is at least one order of magnitude more robust than the best known analytic scheme. Moreover this robustness is maintained even for gate durations significantly shorter than those obtained in the analytic scheme. Superconducting circuits are a particularly promising architecture for the implementation of a quantum computer. Their flexibility is demonstrated by performing optimizations for both diagonal and non-diagonal quantum gates. In order to achieve robustness with respect to decoherence, it is essential to implement quantum gates in the shortest possible amount of time. This may be facilitated by using an optimization functional that targets an arbitrary perfect entangler, based on a geometric theory of two-qubit gates. For the example of superconducting qubits, it is shown that this approach leads to significantly shorter gate durations, higher fidelities, and faster convergence than the optimization towards specific two-qubit gates. Performing optimization in Liouville space in order to properly take into account decoherence poses significant numerical challenges, as the dimension scales quadratically compared to Hilbert space. However, it can be shown that for a unitary target, the optimization only requires propagation of at most three states, instead of a full basis of Liouville space. Both for the example of trapped Rydberg atoms, and for superconducting qubits, the successful optimization of quantum gates is demonstrated, at a significantly reduced numerical cost than was previously thought possible. Together, the results of this thesis point towards a comprehensive framework for the optimization of robust quantum gates, paving the way for the future realization of quantum computers.

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Basándose en la necesidad manifiesta de la empresa Thomas Greg & Sons de Colombia por controlar los costos en los que incurre por adoptar un Sistema de Gestión de Calidad, se realizó una investigación de los procesos que realiza la empresa a nivel productivo y el esquema de costos que utiliza a nivel organizacional, con el fin de proponer y concebir un modelo de administración de costos de la calidad y de la no calidad que sea conforme a lo esperado por la alta gerencia y que contribuya significativamente al control de costos.

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Se presenta el análisis de sensibilidad de un modelo de percepción de marca y ajuste de la inversión en marketing desarrollado en el Laboratorio de Simulación de la Universidad del Rosario. Este trabajo de grado consta de una introducción al tema de análisis de sensibilidad y su complementario el análisis de incertidumbre. Se pasa a mostrar ambos análisis usando un ejemplo simple de aplicación del modelo mediante la aplicación exhaustiva y rigurosa de los pasos descritos en la primera parte. Luego se hace una discusión de la problemática de medición de magnitudes que prueba ser el factor más complejo de la aplicación del modelo en el contexto práctico y finalmente se dan conclusiones sobre los resultados de los análisis.