Current account and capital mobility hypothesis: Evidence from the G-7

This paper investigates an intertemporal optimization model in order to analyze the current account of the G-7 countries, measured as the present value of the future changes in net output. The study compares observed and forecasted series, generated by the model, using Campbell & Shiller’s (1987) methodology. In the estimation process, the countries are considered separately (with OLS technique) as well as jointly (SURE approach), to capture contemporaneous correlations of the shocks in net output. The paper also proposes a note on Granger causality and its implications to the optimal current account. The empirical results are sensitive to the technique adopted in the estimation process and suggest a rejection of the model in the G-7 countries, except for the USA and Japan, according to some papers presented in the literature.

Testing the externalities hypothesis of endogenous growth using cointegration

The initial endogenous growth models emphasized the importance of externaI effects in explaining sustainable growth across time. Empirically, this hypothesis can be confirmed if the coefficient of physical capital per hour is unity in the aggregate production function. Although cross-section results concur with theory, previous estimates using time series data rejected this hypothesis, showing a small coefficient far from unity. It seems that the problem lies not with the theory but with the techniques employed, which are unable to capture low frequency movements in high frequency data. This paper uses cointegration - a technique designed to capture the existence of long-run relationships in multivariate time series - to test the externalities hypothesis of endogenous growth. The results confirm the theory' and conform to previous cross-section estimates. We show that there is long-run proportionality between output per hour and a measure of capital per hour. U sing this result, we confmn the hypothesis that the implied Solow residual can be explained by government expenditures on infra-structure, which suggests a supply side role for government affecting productivity and a decrease on the extent that the Solow residual explains the variation of output.

A new perspective on the PPP hypothesis

This paper the stastistical properties of the real exchange rates of G-5 countries for the Bretton-Woods peiod, and draw implications on the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. In contrast to most previous studies that consider only unit root and stationary process to describe the real exchange tae, this paper also considers two in-between processes, the locally persistent process ans the fractionally integrated process, to complement past studies. Seeking to be consistent with tha ample evidence of near unit in the real exchange rate movements very well. This finding implies that: 1) the real exchange movement is more persistent than the stationary case but less persistent than the unit root case; 2) the real exchange rate is non-stationary but the PPP reversion occurs and the PPP holds in the long run; 3) the real exchange rate does not exhibit the secular dependence of the fractional integration; 4) the real exchange rate evolves over time in a way that there is persistence over a range of time, but the effect of shocks will eventually disappear over time horizon longer than order O (nd), that is, at finite time horizon; 5) shocks dissipation is fasters than predicted by the fractional integracion, and the total sum of the effects of a unit innovation is finite, implying that a full PPP reversion occurs at finite horizons. These results may explain why pasrt empirical estudies could not provide a clear- conclusion on the real exchange rate processes and the PPP hypothesis.

Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models

The aim of this paper is to test whether or not there was evidence of contagion across the various financial crises that assailed some countries in the 1990s. Data on sovereign debt bonds for Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Argentina were used to implement the test. The contagion hypothesis is tested using multivariate volatility models. If there is any evidence of structural break in volatility that can be linked to financial crises, the contagion hypothesis will be confirmed. Results suggest that there is evidence in favor of the contagion hypothesis.

Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change

This paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic 1 qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.

March 4th, 1999 : the recognition-primed decision hypothesis

On March 4, 1999, the newly appointed President of the Brazilian Central Bank, Mr Armínio Fraga, raised interest rates to a staggering 45% per annum. The objective of that decision was to keep foreign investors assets in Brazil, and prevent the country from default. At the time, Brazil suffered frem an enormously intense crisis of confidence, and fears of such default were widespread. Mr Fraga was walking a very fine line when making that decision, for it could bring forth unintended effects: the market, already concerned about Brazil's sustainability, could perceive the increased rate as an irreversible step towards the abyss inevitable default. Economic theory postulates the rational actor model as the driving force behind economic decision-making. The objective of this thesis is to present and discuss the hypothesis that this particular decision, and by extension many others, are better explained threugh the recognition-primed decision mode!.

Essays in recursive equilibrium and market selection hypothesis

Este trabalho consiste em estudar modelos incluindo agentes com informação completa e incompleta sobre o ambiente econômico. Prova-se a existência de equilíbrio em que esses dois agentes coexistem e sob, algumas condições, obtêm-se que esse equilíbrio é recursivo e contínuo, ou seja, pode ser implementado por uma função contínua de transição que relaciona as variáveis de equilíbrio entre dois períodos consecutivos. Mostra-se, sob algumas hipóteses, que em equilíbrios recursivos contínuos, os agentes que cometem erros persistentes nas antecipações dos preços de equilíbrio são eliminados do mercado. Finalmente, exibimos diversos exemplos numéricos, no caso de mercados incompletos e informação completa, em que os agentes com expectativas racionais são eliminados do mercado. Usam-se métodos numéricos alternativos que possibilitam computar um equilíbrio em modelos com agentes heterogêneos.

The effects of commodity dependence on the brazilian economy: a test of the dutch disease hypothesis

A doença holandesa tornou-se amplamente conhecida na década de 1960, quando a descoberta repentina de reservatórios de gás natural em território holandês, na região do mar do norte, transformou o país em uma economia rica em recursos. A desagradável consequência que proveio da recém-adquirida abundância de commodities foi o declínio da próspera indústria holandesa, que perdeu sua competitividade devido à valorização do florim holandês, como consequência do aumento do influxo de capital estrangeiro no país. Desde então este fenômeno tem sido observado em diversos países que possuem abundância de commodities. O objetivo desta tese é aplicar o modelo da doença holandesa ao Brasil, já que a maior economia da América latina poderá também ter de encarar a ameaça de se tornar prisioneira da “armadilha das commodities”, devido à sua abundância de recursos naturais. O autor revisa a bibliografia básica abordando o tema geral da doença holandesa e dá enfoque a estudos realizados anteriormente no Brasil. Além disso, os quatro maiores sintomas que caracterizam a doença holandesa são testados: (1) valorização das taxas de câmbio do real, (2) declínio do setor industrial, (3) crescimento do setor de serviços, e (4) aumento dos salários. Todos estes sintomas foram observados e podem ser comprovados através das abordagens de cointegração ou de correlação, com exceção do sintoma número dois. Ainda que estes resultados sejam significativos, há muito outros fatores determinantes que influenciam o desenvolvimento dos sintomas examinados, motivo pelo qual futuros estudos serão necessários para se obtiver conclusões definitivas sobre como o Brasil é afetado pela doença holandesa.

Ambiente institucional no crédito rural :avanços e retrocessos

This work aims to study the institucional environment for the implementation of financing policies directed to familiar agriculture. The central hypothesis is that, although all changes occured in the credit norms, in order to reduce the existing obstacles for the access of outsiders, the same institucional arrangement remains which gave support to the modernization - crystallizer of strengthening structures of this exclusion. The most relevant pressuposition is that the poor agriculturists are the most displayed to the institucional limitations. The concepts of institucional arrangements and environments used in this work had been constructed with support of the institucional school, contemplating itself the economic dimension, the organizational sociology and political science. In the relation of the institucional changes with the state performance, the theorist reading was important that reflect on the relative autonomy of the State and studious of the Brazilian State. The empirical part consisted of a research which had been applied questionnaires with benefited and non-benefited agriculturists with PRONAF B, in thirteen cities of Rio Grande do Norte. In each city, interviews with four of its main mediators had been carried out. The research results had ratified the hypothesis of the work of that the conception of the public policies does not take in account the institution role in the behavior and the choices of the individual and collective agents, inferring itself that this policy, as others, lacks of mediation that exceed the rationality of legal landmarks

A esfera como metáfora: representações do futebol no campo da literatura (leituras do tema no conto de ficção)

Football, understood as a phenomenon of sports practice and nearly universal coverage, can also be seen as a game whose operation circumvents the cultural universe of people who practice it. Much more than just a sport, so this game is a cultural phenomenon par excellence, bearing a communicational and aesthetic dimension whose occurrence has been spotted in various fields of scientific and cultural. Therefore, it is as game and as a phenomenon of culture, we intend to focus on football here as an object of study. Our aim is to investigate the sport in Brazil taking the Literature and Journalism as privileged instances of their representation in the media. Thus, the central idea of this research is to show when and how football has become a recurrent theme in Brazilian literature, starting with its journalistic approach until we get an overview of the aesthetic representation of the game, Literature as the main focus of attention and taking the genre of fiction story as material fact of their representation. With this approach, we intend to develop an overall view, overview of the literature about football in our country and at the same time, particularize this vision in some representative authors of it, like the writer-journalist Mario Filho (the historian, essayist on the modernization of chronic specific theme), José Lins do Rego (writer passionate about the game), Nelson Rodrigues (the esthetician that elevated the sport to the status of art by chronic), Lima Barreto (who along with Antonio de Alcantara Machado pioneered the formalized within the fiction) and the storytellers of the topic itself. In the end, we intend to infer the results of evaluations and reviews of books and authors listed, we have examined a wide sense, but also vertical (and which were focused on a socio-historical perspective and critical-aesthetic) within the assumption that seems be a homology between the way football practice amongst us will historically winning characteristics as to form a Brazilian school of football, and how our writers, journalists will be addressing the topic, which also would focus on creating a "Brazilian way" of telling literary football. The proof of this hypothesis operational work together with the development of historiography and the necessity arising from it, creating a "Guide to Reading football theme in fictional tale of Brazil" shut the focal perspective of this study

Analysis of the Coupled Stretching-Bending Problem of Stiffened Plates by a BEM Formulation Based on Reissner's Hypothesis

In this work, the plate bending formulation of the boundary element method - BEM, based on the Reissner's hypothesis, is extended to the analysis of plates reinforced by beams taking into account the membrane effects. The formulation is derived by assuming a zoned body where each sub-region defines a beam or a slab and all of them are represented by a chosen reference surface. Equilibrium and compatibility conditions are automatically imposed by the integral equations, which treat this composed structure as a single body. In order to reduce the number of degrees of freedom, the problem values defined on the interfaces are written in terms of their values on the beam axis. Initially are derived separated equations for the bending and stretching problems, but in the final system of equations the two problems are coupled and can not be treated separately. Finally are presented some numerical examples whose analytical results are known to show the accuracy of the proposed model.

Relationship Between the Prevalence of the Dentigerous Cyst and the Odontogenic Keratocyst Tumor and the Current Etiologic Hypothesis

Cysts are considered as nonneoplastic benign lesions that, when present for a long period of time, can cause some discomfort, especially related to the treatment form. Among the types of cysts of the maxilla, the dentigerous cyst (DC) presents substances between the dental follicle and the crown of the tooth with high potential for resorption, and the odontogenic keratocyst tumor (OKT) characterizes for its noticed rapid growth pattern and the possibility to develop carcinomas in the lesion wall. The DC is the most common type among the developing odontogenic cystic lesions, while the OKT represents 10% of these lesions. The prevalence of the OKT found in the current study was superior to the DC, opposing data of the evaluated literature, as well as the predominance in relation to the age group. Dentigerous cyst cases were found mostly in younger individuals, whereas the OKT was observed mainly in individuals between the third and fourth decades of life. This fact reflects the fragility of these features while establishing the presumptive diagnosis and insinuates the strong relation with a probable genetic predisposition. In relation to sex and race, the findings in this article were similar to those found in the literature, highlighting the possibility of a hormonal involvement. However, the anatomopathologic examination remains essential to define the main diagnosis of the lesions observed by means of imaging examinations, providing for safer diagnoses to plan the treatment.

Water deprivation and the double- depletion hypothesis: common neural mechanisms underlie thirst and salt appetite

Water deprivation-induced thirst is explained by the double-depletion hypothesis, which predicts that dehydration of the two major body fluid compartments, the extracellular and intracellular compartments, activates signals that combine centrally to induce water intake. However, sodium appetite is also elicited by water deprivation. In this brief review, we stress the importance of the water-depletion and partial extracellular fluid-repletion protocol which permits the distinction between sodium appetite and thirst. Consistent enhancement or a de novo production of sodium intake induced by deactivation of inhibitory nuclei (e.g., lateral parabrachial nucleus) or hormones (oxytocin, atrial natriuretic peptide), in water-deprived, extracellular-dehydrated or, contrary to tradition, intracellular-dehydrated rats, suggests that sodium appetite and thirst share more mechanisms than previously thought. Water deprivation has physiological and health effects in humans that might be related to the salt craving shown by our species.