Reactive power support pricing of distributed generators with primary energy source uncertainty

In this paper, a novel methodology to price the reactive power support ancillary service of Distributed Generators (DGs) with primary energy source uncertainty is shown. The proposed methodology provides the service pricing based on the Loss of Opportunity Costs (LOC) calculation. An algorithm is proposed to reduce the uncertainty present in these generators using Multiobjective Power Flows (MOPFs) implemented in multiple probabilistic scenarios through Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS), and modeling the time series associated with the generation of active power from DGs through Markov Chains (MC). © 2011 IEEE.

Pricing of reactive power support provided by distributed generators in transmission systems

Distributed Generation, microgrid technologies, two-way communication systems, and demand response programs are issues that are being studied in recent years within the concept of smart grids. At some level of enough penetration, the Distributed Generators (DGs) can provide benefits for sub-transmission and transmission systems through the so-called ancillary services. This work is focused on the ancillary service of reactive power support provided by DGs, specifically Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs), with high level of impact on transmission systems. The main objective of this work is to propose an optimization methodology to price this service by determining the costs in which a DG incurs when it loses sales opportunity of active power, i.e, by determining the Loss of Opportunity Costs (LOC). LOC occur when more reactive power is required than available, and the active power generation has to be reduced in order to increase the reactive power capacity. In the optimization process, three objectives are considered: active power generation costs of DGs, voltage stability margin of the system, and losses in the lines of the network. Uncertainties of WTGs are reduced solving multi-objective optimal power flows in multiple probabilistic scenarios constructed by Monte Carlo simulations, and modeling the time series associated with the active power generation of each WTG via Fuzzy Logic and Markov Chains. The proposed methodology was tested using the IEEE 14 bus test system with two WTGs installed. © 2011 IEEE.

A Bayesian view of the Higgs sector with higher dimensional operators

We investigate the possibilities of New Physics affecting the Standard Model (SM) Higgs sector. An effective Lagrangian with dimension-six operators is used to capture the effect of New Physics. We carry out a global Bayesian inference analysis, considering the recent LHC data set including all available correlations, as well as results from Tevatron. Trilinear gauge boson couplings and electroweak precision observables are also taken into account. The case of weak bosons tensorial couplings is closely examined and NLO QCD corrections are taken into account in the deviations we predict. We consider two scenarios, one where the coefficients of all the dimension-six operators are essentially unconstrained, and one where a certain subset is loop suppressed. In both scenarios, we find that large deviations from some of the SM Higgs couplings can still be present, assuming New Physics arising at 3 TeV. In particular, we find that a significantly reduced coupling of the Higgs to the top quark is possible and slightly favored by searches on Higgs production in association with top quark pairs. The total width of the Higgs boson is only weakly constrained and can vary between 0.7 and 2.7 times the Standard Model value within 95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI). We also observe sizeable effects induced by New Physics contributions to tensorial couplings. In particular, the Higgs boson decay width into Zγ can be enhanced by up to a factor 12 within 95% BCI. © 2013 SISSA.

Valoração de serviços ancilares de geradores distribuídos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Máquina de somar, conjuntos de Julia e fractais de Rauzy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelo epidemiológico discreto para a transmissão de Acinetobacter baumannii em UTIs brasileiras

Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB

SPECTRUM OF STOCHASTIC ADDING MACHINES AND FIBERED JULIA SETS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

STOCHASTIC ADDING MACHINE AND 2-DIMENSIONAL JULIA SETS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Anomalous couplings of the third generation in rare B decays

We study the potential effects of anomalous couplings of the third generation quarks to gauge bosons in rare B decays. We focus on the constraints from flavor changing neutral current processes such as b→sγ and b →sl+l-. We consider both dimension-four and dimension-five operators and show that the latter can give large deviations from the standard model in the still unobserved dilepton modes, even after the bounds from b→sγ and precision electroweak observables are taken into account. ©2000 The American Physical Society.

Estimação espaço-temporal das perdas não técnicas no sistema de distribuição de energia elétrica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

CONTEXT TREE SELECTION AND LINGUISTIC RHYTHM RETRIEVAL FROM WRITTEN TEXTS

The starting point of this article is the question "How to retrieve fingerprints of rhythm in written texts?" We address this problem in the case of Brazilian and European Portuguese. These two dialects of Modern Portuguese share the same lexicon and most of the sentences they produce are superficially identical. Yet they are conjectured, on linguistic grounds, to implement different rhythms. We show that this linguistic question can be formulated as a problem of model selection in the class of variable length Markov chains. To carry on this approach, we compare texts from European and Brazilian Portuguese. These texts are previously encoded according to some basic rhythmic features of the sentences which can be automatically retrieved. This is an entirely new approach from the linguistic point of view. Our statistical contribution is the introduction of the smallest maximizer criterion which is a constant free procedure for model selection. As a by-product, this provides a solution for the problem of optimal choice of the penalty constant when using the BIC to select a variable length Markov chain. Besides proving the consistency of the smallest maximizer criterion when the sample size diverges, we also make a simulation study comparing our approach with both the standard BIC selection and the Peres-Shields order estimation. Applied to the linguistic sample constituted for our case study, the smallest maximizer criterion assigns different context-tree models to the two dialects of Portuguese. The features of the selected models are compatible with current conjectures discussed in the linguistic literature.

Evolving decision trees with beam search-based initialization and lexicographic multi-objective evaluation

Decision tree induction algorithms represent one of the most popular techniques for dealing with classification problems. However, traditional decision-tree induction algorithms implement a greedy approach for node splitting that is inherently susceptible to local optima convergence. Evolutionary algorithms can avoid the problems associated with a greedy search and have been successfully employed to the induction of decision trees. Previously, we proposed a lexicographic multi-objective genetic algorithm for decision-tree induction, named LEGAL-Tree. In this work, we propose extending this approach substantially, particularly w.r.t. two important evolutionary aspects: the initialization of the population and the fitness function. We carry out a comprehensive set of experiments to validate our extended algorithm. The experimental results suggest that it is able to outperform both traditional algorithms for decision-tree induction and another evolutionary algorithm in a variety of application domains.

Geometric and Combinatorial Aspects of NonEquilibrium Statistical Mechanics

Non-Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics is a broad subject. Grossly speaking, it deals with systems which have not yet relaxed to an equilibrium state, or else with systems which are in a steady non-equilibrium state, or with more general situations. They are characterized by external forcing and internal fluxes, resulting in a net production of entropy which quantifies dissipation and the extent by which, by the Second Law of Thermodynamics, time-reversal invariance is broken. In this thesis we discuss some of the mathematical structures involved with generic discrete-state-space non-equilibrium systems, that we depict with networks in all analogous to electrical networks. We define suitable observables and derive their linear regime relationships, we discuss a duality between external and internal observables that reverses the role of the system and of the environment, we show that network observables serve as constraints for a derivation of the minimum entropy production principle. We dwell on deep combinatorial aspects regarding linear response determinants, which are related to spanning tree polynomials in graph theory, and we give a geometrical interpretation of observables in terms of Wilson loops of a connection and gauge degrees of freedom. We specialize the formalism to continuous-time Markov chains, we give a physical interpretation for observables in terms of locally detailed balanced rates, we prove many variants of the fluctuation theorem, and show that a well-known expression for the entropy production due to Schnakenberg descends from considerations of gauge invariance, where the gauge symmetry is related to the freedom in the choice of a prior probability distribution. As an additional topic of geometrical flavor related to continuous-time Markov chains, we discuss the Fisher-Rao geometry of nonequilibrium decay modes, showing that the Fisher matrix contains information about many aspects of non-equilibrium behavior, including non-equilibrium phase transitions and superposition of modes. We establish a sort of statistical equivalence principle and discuss the behavior of the Fisher matrix under time-reversal. To conclude, we propose that geometry and combinatorics might greatly increase our understanding of nonequilibrium phenomena.

Computational strategies to include protein flexibility in Ligand Docking and Virtual Screening

The dynamic character of proteins strongly influences biomolecular recognition mechanisms. With the development of the main models of ligand recognition (lock-and-key, induced fit, conformational selection theories), the role of protein plasticity has become increasingly relevant. In particular, major structural changes concerning large deviations of protein backbones, and slight movements such as side chain rotations are now carefully considered in drug discovery and development. It is of great interest to identify multiple protein conformations as preliminary step in a screening campaign. Protein flexibility has been widely investigated, in terms of both local and global motions, in two diverse biological systems. On one side, Replica Exchange Molecular Dynamics has been exploited as enhanced sampling method to collect multiple conformations of Lactate Dehydrogenase A (LDHA), an emerging anticancer target. The aim of this project was the development of an Ensemble-based Virtual Screening protocol, in order to find novel potent inhibitors. On the other side, a preliminary study concerning the local flexibility of Opioid Receptors has been carried out through ALiBERO approach, an iterative method based on Elastic Network-Normal Mode Analysis and Monte Carlo sampling. Comparison of the Virtual Screening performances by using single or multiple conformations confirmed that the inclusion of protein flexibility in screening protocols has a positive effect on the probability to early recognize novel or known active compounds.

Massenspektrometrische Wasserdampfmessung in der oberen Troposphäre und unteren Stratosphäre

Diese Arbeit beschreibt die Entwicklung des flugzeuggetragenen Atmosphärischen Ionisations-Massenspektrometers AIMS-H2O zur Messung von Wasserdampf in der oberen Troposphäre und unteren Stratosphäre (UTLS) und erste Flugzeugmessungen mit dem Instrument. Wasserdampf beeinflusst das Klima in der UTLS aufgrund seiner Strahlungseigenschaften und agiert als wichtiger Parameter bei der Bildung von Zirruswolken und Kondensstreifen. Deshalb sind genaue Wasserdampfmessungen für das Verständnis vieler atmosphärischer Prozesse unerlässlich. Instrumentenvergleiche wie sie im SPARC Report No. 2 und dem Bericht der AUQAVIT Kampagne zusammengefasst sind, haben gezeigt, dass große Abweichungen zwischen einzelnen Methoden und Instrumenten bestehen. Diese Unsicherheiten limitieren das Verständnis des Einflusses von Wasserdampf auf die Dynamik und die Strahlungseigenschaften in der UTLS. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellte Entwicklung einer neuen Messmethode für Wasserdampf mit dem Massenspektrometer AIMS-H2O ist deshalb auf die genaue Messung niedriger Wasserdampfkonzentrationen in der UTLS fokussiert. Mit AIMS H2O wird Umgebungsluft in einer neu entwickelten Gasentladungsquelle ionisiert. Durch eine Reihe von Ionen-Molekül-Reaktionen entstehen H3O+(H2O) und H3O+(H2O)2 Ionen. Diese Ionen werden genutzt, um die Wasserdampfkonzentration in der Atmosphäre zu bestimmen. Um die erforderliche hohe Genauigkeit zu erzielen, wird AIMS H2O im Flug kalibriert. In dem zu diesem Zweck aufgebauten Kalibrationsmodul wird die katalytische Reaktion von Wasserstoff und Sauerstoff auf einer Platinoberfläche genutzt, um definierte Wasserdampfkonzentrationen für die Kalibration im Flug zu erzeugen. Bei ersten Messungen auf der Falcon während der Kampagne CONCERT 2011 konnte dabei eine Genauigkeit von 8 bis 15% für die Messung der Wasserdampfkonzentration in einem Messbereich von 0,5 bis 250 ppmv erreicht werden. Die Messfrequenz betrug 4 Hz, was einer räumlichen Auflösung von etwa 50 m entspricht. Der Vergleich der Messung des Massenspektrometers mit dem Laserhygrometer Waran zeigt eine sehr gute Übereinstimmung im Rahmen der Unsicherheiten. Anhand zweier Fallstudien werden die Messungen von AIMS H2O während CONCERT 2011 detailliert analysiert. In der ersten Studie werden zwei Flüge in eine stratosphärische Intrusion über Nordeuropa untersucht. In dieser Situation wurde stratosphärische Luft bis hinunter auf 6 km Höhe transportiert und war dadurch mit der Falcon erreichbar. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass AIMS-H2O sehr gut für die genaue Messung niedriger Wasserdampfkonzentrationen, in diesem Fall bis etwa 3,5 ppmv, geeignet ist. Der Vergleich der Messung mit Analysen des ECMWF Integrated Forecast Systems zeigt eine gute Übereinstimmung der gemessenen Wasserdampfstrukturen mit der dynamischen Tropopause. Unterschiede tauchen dagegen beim Vergleich der Wasserdampfkonzentrationen in der unteren Stratosphäre auf. Hier prognostiziert das Modell deutlich höhere Feuchten. Die zweite Fallstudie beschäftigt sich mit der Verteilung der relativen Feuchte in jungen Kondensstreifen im Vergleich zu ihrer direkten Umgebung. Dabei wurde für drei Messsequenzen im Abgasstrahl von Flugzeugen beobachtet, dass die relative Feuchte innerhalb des Kondensstreifens im Vergleich zur Umgebung sowohl bei unter- als auch übersättigten Umgebungsbedingungen in Richtung Sättigung verschoben ist. Die hohe Anzahl an Eispartikeln und die damit verbundene große Eisoberfläche in jungen Kondensstreifen führt also zu einer schnellen Relaxation von Gasphase und Eis in Richtung Gleichgewicht. In der Zukunft soll AIMS-H2O auch auf HALO für die genaue Messung von Wasserdampf bei ML-CIRRUS und weiteren Kampagnen eingesetzt werden.