On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework

In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. in this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Long-term Survival Model Parametrized in the Cured Fraction

The main goal of this paper is to investigate a cure rate model that comprehends some well-known proposals found in the literature. In our work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. The model is conveniently reparametrized through the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates by means of the logistic link. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in the proposed model. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Long-term facial artery catheter implantation for serial arterial blood sampling and invasive arterial blood pressure measurement in horses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Potentially modifiable predictors of mortality in patients treated with long-term oxygen therapy

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Predictors of first-year survival in patients with advanced COPD treated using long-term oxygen therapy

Little evidence-based guidance is available to aid clinicians in determining short-term prognoses in very severe COPD patients. Therefore, the present study was designed to provide a prospective assessment (1) of the mortality rates and (2) whether the baseline measurements may be determinants of 1-year mortality in hypoxemic COPD patients receiving long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT).Seventy-eight clinically stable patients with advanced COPD treated using LTOT were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Outcome variable: first-year mortality. Baseline measurements: categorical variables: age (<60 or >= 60 years); gender; body mass index (<20 or >= 20 kg/m(2)); fat-free mass (FFM) index (<16 [men] and <15kg/m(2) [women]; baseline dyspnea index (BDI) (<= 3 or >3); and corticosteroid use. Continuous variables: smoking history; lung function; FFM; fat mass; hemoglobin; hematocrit; arterial blood gases; forearm muscle strength; St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ); and comorbidity score. By the end of 1-year of follow-up, 12 patients (15.4%) had died. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that BDI <= 3 was the only variable associated with higher mortality. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that tower PaO2 and SPO2, higher PaCO2 and SGRQ scores were associated with reduced survival. In the multivariate analysis, BDI remained predictive of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31-0.81), as did PaO2 (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.95). These data suggest that readily available parameters as dyspnea intensity and hypoxemia severity may be useful in predicting first-year survival rates in advanced COPD patients receiving LTOT (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The importance of knowing the home conditions of patients receiving long-term oxygen therapy

Purpose: Long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) is one of the main treatments for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Patients receiving LTOT may have less than optimal home conditions and this may interfere with treatment. The objective of this study was, through home visits, to identify the characteristics of patients receiving LTOT and to develop knowledge regarding the home environments of these patients.Methods: Ninety-seven patients with a mean age of 69 plus or minus 10.5 years were evaluated. This study was a cross-sectional descriptive analysis. Data were collected during an initial home visit, using a questionnaire standardized for the study. The results were analyzed retrospectively.Results: Seventy-five percent of the patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 11% were active smokers. The patients' mean pulse oximetry values were 85.9% plus or minus 4.7% on room air and 92% plus or minus 3.9% on the prescribed flow of oxygen. Most of the patients did not use the treatment as prescribed and most used a humidifier. The extension hose had a mean length of 5 plus or minus 3.9 m (range, 1.5-16 m). In the year prior to the visit, 26% of the patients received emergency medical care because of respiratory problems. Few patients reported engaging in leisure activities.Conclusion: The home visit allowed us to identify problems and interventions that could improve the way LTOT is used. The most common interventions related to smoking cessation, concentrator maintenance and cleaning, use of a humidifier, and adjustments of the length of the connector hose. Therefore, the home visit is a very important tool in providing comprehensive care to patients receiving LTOT, especially those who show lack of adequate progress and those who show uncertainty about the treatment method.

Removable Partial Denture in Combination with a Milled Fixed Partial Prosthesis as Interim Restorations in Long-Term Treatment

Interim restorations are frequently used in prosthodontic treatments. Many complex situations require the combination of fixed and removable partial prostheses. An appropriate interim restoration design that accurately implements the treatment plan is necessary to prepare the oral cavity for the prostheses, and to contribute to the preservation and health of remaining natural teeth, bone support, and gingival tissues. This report describes a modified technique for construction of interim restorations with a combination of fixed and removable partial prostheses. The technique consists of the construction of a milled fixed prosthesis and removable partial denture with metallic framework for use during extensive treatment, improving masticatory function and esthetics and preserving the periodontal health of supporting structures. This interim restoration can also serve as a template for the definitive restoration, allowing patient and dentist to evaluate appearance and function and helping to ensure the success of the definitive restoration.

Long-term effect of carbodiimide on dentin matrix and resin-dentin bonds

Objectives: To characterize the interaction of 1-Ethyl-3-[3-dimethylaminopropyl] carbodiimide Hydrochloride (EDC) with dentin matrix and its effect on the resin-dentin bond. Methods: Changes to the stiffness of demineralized dentin fragments treated with EDC/N-hydroxysuccinimide (NHS) in different solutions were evaluated at different time points. The resistance against enzymatic degradation was indirectly evaluated by ultimate tensile strength (UTS) test of demineralized dentin treated or not with EDC/NHS and subjected to collagenase digestion. Short- and long-term evaluations of the strength of resin-dentin interfaces treated with EDC/NHS for 1 h were performed using microtensile bond strength (mu TBS) test. All data (MPa) were individually analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey HSD tests (alpha = 0.05). Results: The different exposure times significantly increased the stiffness of dentin (p < 0.0001, control-5.15 and EDC/NHS-29.50), while no differences were observed among the different solutions of EDC/NHS (p = 0.063). Collagenase challenge did not affect the UTS values of EDC/NHS group (6.08) (p > 0.05), while complete degradation was observed for the control group (p = 0.0008, control-20.84 and EDC/NHS-43.15). EDC/NHS treatment did not significantly increase resin-dentin mu TBS, but the values remained stable after 12 months water storage (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Biomimetic use of EDC/NHS to induce exogenous collagen cross-links resulted in increased mechanical properties and stability of dentin matrix and dentin-resin interfaces. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater 94B: 250-255, 2010.

Toxicological evaluation of long-term intravenous administration of amitraz in horses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aesthetic correction of a hypertrophic sinus frontalis: A long-term follow-up evaluation and refinement of the method

Two cases treated for hypertrophy of the frontal sinus are presented. In both patients, the excised frontal bone was inverted, and the resultant cavity was filled with either bone dust from the parietal region or Medpor. The first patient is shown with an excellent result after a follow-up period of 16 years. The second patient, who also achieved an excellent result, is presented after a follow-up period of 5 years. Using Medpor instead of bone dust resulted in the advantage that the operation could be performed with the patient under local anesthesia with sedation and prevention of an additional donor site. The use of Medpor has certain advantages over the use of hydroxyapatite, not least of which is its significant lower cost.

Effect of thermocycling on bond strength and elasticity of 4 long-term soft denture liners

Statement of problem. Two problems found in prostheses with soft liners are bond failure to the acrylic resin base and loss of elasticity due to material aging.Purpose. This in vitro study evaluated the effect of thermocycling on the bond strength and elasticity of 4 long-term soft denture liners to acrylic resin bases.Material and methods. Four soft lining materials (Molloplast-B, Flexor, Permasoft, and Pro Tech) and 2 acrylic resins (Classico, and Lucitone 199) were processed for testing according to manufacturers' instructions. Twenty rectangular specimens (10 X 10-mm(2) cross-sectional area) and twenty cylinder specimens (12.7-mm diameter X 19.0-mm height) for each liner/resin combination were used for the tensile and deformation tests, respectively. Specimen shape and liner thickness were standardized. Samples were divided into a test group that was thermocycled 3000 times and a control group that was stored for 24 hours in water at 37degreesC. Mean bond strength, expressed in megapascals (Wa), was determined in the tensile test with the use of a universal testing machine at a crosshead speed of 5 mm/min. Elasticity, expressed as percent of permanent deformation, was calculated with an instrument for measuring permanent deformation described in ADA/ANSI specification 18. Data from both tests were examined with 1-way analysis of variance and a Tukey test, with calculation of a Scheffe interval at a 95% confidence level.Results. In the tensile test under control conditions, Molloplast-B (1.51 +/- 0.28 MPa [mean SD]) and Pro Tech (1.44 +/- 0.27 MPa) liners had higher bond strength values than the others (P < .05). With regard to the permanent deformation test, the lowest values were observed for Molloplast-B (0.48% +/- 0.19%) and Flexor (0.44% +/- 0.14%) (P < .05). Under thermocycling conditions, the highest bond strength occurred with Molloplast-B (1.37 +/- 0.24 MPa) (P < .05) With regard to the deformation test, Flexor (0.46% +/- 0.13%) and Molloplast-B (0.44% +/- 0.17%) liners had lower deformation values than the others (P < .05).Conclusion. The results of this in vitro study indicated that bond strength and permanent deformity values of the 4 soft denture liners tested varied according to their chemical composition. These tests are not completely valid for application to dental restorations because the forces they encounter are more closely related to shear and tear. However, the above protocol serves as a good method of investigation to evaluate differences between thermocycled and control groups.

Assessment of pharmacotherapeutic safety of medical prescriptions for elderly residents in a long-term care facility

The present study aimed to estimate the prevalence of elderly using potentially inappropriate medications (PIM) and with occurrence of potentially hazardous drug interactions (PHDI), to identify the risk factors for the prescription of PIM and to evaluate the impact of pharmaceutical intervention (PI) for the prescription of safer therapeutic alternatives. Therefore, a cross-sectional study was performed in a long-term care facility in São Paulo State, between December/2010 and January/2011. The medical records of the patients >= 60 years old who took any drugs were consulted to assess the pharmacotherapeutic safety of the medical prescriptions, in order to identify PIM and PHDI, according to the Beers (2003) and World Health Organization criteria, respectively. PI consisted of a guidance letter to the physician responsible for the institution, with the suggestions of safer equivalent therapeutics. Approximately 88% of the elderly took at least one drug, and for 30% of them the PIM had been prescribed. Most of the PIM identified (53.4%) act on the central nervous system. Among the 13 different DI detected, 6 are considered PHDI. Polypharmacy was detected as a risk factor for PIM prescription. After the PI there was no change in medical prescriptions of patients who had been prescribed PIM or PHDI. The data suggests that PI performed by letter, as the only interventional, method was ineffective. To contribute it a wide dissemination of PIM and PHDI among prescriber professionals is necessary for the selection of safer treatment for elderly. Additionally, a pharmacist should be part of the health care team in order to help promote rational use of medicines.

Euro and the financial relations between Latin America and Europe: medium- and long-term implications

Includes bibliography