Parental perceptions of residential location : impacts on children's health

This study explored families’ views and experiences of their residential location in relation to their children's health. Thematic analysis of interviews with mothers revealed that decisions to live in an outer Melbourne municipality were strongly influenced by ideals around children however; all spoke of experiencing difficulties in raising children in terms of accessing services, recreation facilities, transport and work. Analysis of these findings using Bronfenbrenner's Social Ecology Model revealed how factors could interact to affect children's health and wellbeing. The study findings highlight the importance of parental perceptions of residential location in understanding the relationship between children's health and place.

A probabilistic movement model for shortest path formation in virtual ant-like agents

We propose a probabilistic movement model for controlling ant-like agents foraging between two points. Such agents are all identical, simple, autonomous and can only communicate indirectly through the environment. These agents secrete two types of pheromone, one to mark trails towards the goal and another to mark trails back to the starting point. Three pheromone perception strategies are proposed (Strategy A, B and C). Agents that use strategy A perceive the desirability of a neighbouring location as the difference between levels of attractive and repulsive pheromone in that location. With strategy B, agents perceive the desirability of a location as the quotient of levels of attractive and repulsive pheromone. Agents using strategy C determine the product of the levels of attractive pheromone with the complement of levels of repulsive pheromone. We conduct experiments to confirm directionality as emergent property of trails formed by agents that use each strategy. In addition, we compare path formation speed and the quality of the formed path under changes in the environment. We also investigate each strategy's robustness in environments that contain obstacles. Finally, we investigate how adaptive each strategy is when obstacles are eventually removed from the scene and find that the best strategy of these three is strategy A. Such a strategy provides useful guidelines to researchers in further applications of swarm intelligence metaphors for complex problem solving.

Mortality disparities between geographic regions : results from a risk percentiles model for coronary heart disease

Background: Planning of disease prevention strategies requires information regarding the distribution of absolute risk in the population to allow targeting of people at high disease risk. It is well known that death rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) are higher in remote areas of Australia compared with major cities. Less well understood is the distribution of the absolute risk of CHD death within the different geographic regions. We present a mathematical model of CHD which projects the lifetime risk of death among individuals in different percentiles of CHD risk. We apply this to model the distribution of CHD risk within different geographic regions.

Methods: Using information from the Framingham1, MRFIT2 and AusDiab3 studies, the Australian population was divided into percentiles of CHD risk within age and gender groups by geographic location. Absolute mortality risk was determined at each percentile using current Australian mortality data. Survival curves were generated for each percentile using these risk estimates. Approximate confidence intervals were derived using bootstrap methods.

Conclusions: The difference in life expectancy at age 25 between those in the lowest decile of CHD risk compared to the highest was 5.8 years (95%CI:4.7,6.7) in major cities compared to 8.5 years (95%CI:7.6,9.7) in remote areas. The difference in risk of premature death (before age 75) was 12% (95%CI:10%,14%) in major cities compared to 33% (95%CI:28%,38%) in remote areas.

Victims' perceptions of a new model of sexual assault investigation adopted by Victoria Police

This paper evaluates a method of operation for sexual assault investigation recently developed by Victoria Police (Australia). The model (which is new to Victoria) is characterised by two core components: the establishment of specialist teams of investigators (responsible for investigation and victim support) and service sites referred to as ‘Multidisciplinary Centres’ where all key services are provided to victims in a single location separate from police stations. The approach consisted of in-depth interviews with 25 victims of sexual assault aged between 15 and 54 years. The overriding theme to arise from the interviews was the importance to victims of being treated with dignity and respect; six elements were highlighted by victims as assisting this. These elements are presented along with evidence to demonstrate that the police response to victims has become more victim-centred under the new model of service delivery.

Hybrid neural network—finite element river flow model

Results obtained from a hybrid neural network—finite element model are reported in this paper. The hybrid model incorporates artificial neural network (ANN) nodes into a numerical scheme, which solves the two-dimensional shallow water equations using finite elements (FE). First, numerical computations are carried out on the entire numerical model, using a larger mesh. The results from this computation are then used to train several preselected ANN nodes. The ANN nodes model the response for a part of the entire numerical model by transferring the system reaction to the location where both models are connected in real time. This allows a smaller mesh to be used in the hybrid ANN-FE model, resulting in savings in computation time. The hybrid model was developed for a river application, using the computational nodes located at the open boundaries to be the ANN nodes for the ANN-FE hybrid model. Real-time coupling between the ANN and FE models was achieved, and a reduction is CPU time of more than 25% was obtained.

Analytical model to locate the fluidisation interface in a solid-gas vacuum fluidised bed

Vacuum fluidised beds have a distinct advantage of being operated with reduced mass consumption of the fluidising media. However, a low quality of fluidisation reduces the opportunity to utilise the bubbling regime in vacuum fluidised beds. Fluidisation maps are often used to depict the interface between the quiescent, bubbling and slugging regimes inside a fluidised bed. Such maps have been obtained by visual observations of the fluidisation interface in transparent fluidised beds. For beds which are visually inaccessible fluidisation maps are difficult to obtain. The present work therefore attempts to model the interface travel in a vacuum fluidised bed. The pressure gradient due to the bed weight has been determined to be a main contributor for fluidisation/defluidisation under vacuum. A simple analytical model based on the pressure gradient (PG model) is developed to predict the interface location in a vacuum fluidised bed. For a segregated bed, the Gibilaro-Rowe (GR) model is modified and used to predict the jetsam layer growth along with the fluidisation interface. The predictions are compared with the experimental data for minimally and highly segregated particles and it is seen that for non-segregated powders the predictions are quite accurate. Lack of sufficient knowledge of bubble characteristics, however, impeded accurate prediction of the jetsam growth especially at high flow rates. However, an approximate complete fluidisation interface is successfully predicted using the GR-PG model. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Exploring spatiotemporal trends in commercial fishing effort of an abalone fishing zone: a GIS-based hotspot model

Assessing patterns of fisheries activity at a scale related to resource exploitation has received particular attention in recent times. However, acquiring data about the distribution and spatiotemporal allocation of catch and fishing effort in small scale benthic fisheries remains challenging. Here, we used GIS-based spatio-statistical models to investigate the footprint of commercial diving events on blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) stocks along the south-west coast of Victoria, Australia from 2008 to 2011. Using abalone catch data matched with GPS location we found catch per unit of fishing effort (CPUE) was not uniformly spatially and temporally distributed across the study area. Spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis revealed significant spatiotemporal clusters of CPUE (with distance thresholds of 100's of meters) among years, indicating the presence of CPUE hotspots focused on specific reefs. Cumulative hotspot maps indicated that certain reef complexes were consistently targeted across years but with varying intensity, however often a relatively small proportion of the full reef extent was targeted. Integrating CPUE with remotely-sensed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) derived bathymetry data using generalized additive mixed model corroborated that fishing pressure primarily coincided with shallow, rugose and complex components of reef structures. This study demonstrates that a geospatial approach is efficient in detecting patterns and trends in commercial fishing effort and its association with seafloor characteristics.

A graph-based model for context-aware recommendation using implicit feedback data

Recommender systems have been successfully dealing with the problem of information overload. However, most recommendation methods suit to the scenarios where explicit feedback, e.g. ratings, are available, but might not be suitable for the most common scenarios with only implicit feedback. In addition, most existing methods only focus on user and item dimensions and neglect any additional contextual information, such as time and location. In this paper, we propose a graph-based generic recommendation framework, which constructs a Multi-Layer Context Graph (MLCG) from implicit feedback data, and then performs ranking algorithms in MLCG for context-aware recommendation. Specifically, MLCG incorporates a variety of contextual information into a recommendation process and models the interactions between users and items. Moreover, based on MLCG, two novel ranking methods are developed: Context-aware Personalized Random Walk (CPRW) captures user preferences and current situations, and Semantic Path-based Random Walk (SPRW) incorporates semantics of paths in MLCG into random walk model for recommendation. The experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Continuous discovery of co-location contexts from Bluetooth data

The discovery of contexts is important for context-aware applications in pervasive computing. This is a challenging problem because of the stream nature of data, the complexity and changing nature of contexts. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model for the detection of co-location contexts from Bluetooth signals. By using an Indian buffet process as the prior distribution, the model can discover the number of contexts automatically. We introduce a novel fixed-lag particle filter that processes data incrementally. This sampling scheme is especially suitable for pervasive computing as the computational requirements remain constant in spite of growing data. We examine our model on a synthetic dataset and two real world datasets. To verify the discovered contexts, we compare them to the communities detected by the Louvain method, showing a strong correlation between the results of the two methods. Fixed-lag particle filter is compared with Gibbs sampling in terms of the normalized factorization error that shows a close performance between the two inference methods. As fixed-lag particle filter processes a small chunk of data when it comes and does not need to be restarted, its execution time is significantly shorter than that of Gibbs sampling.

Effect Of Different Hydrological Model Structures On The Assimilation Of Distributed Uncertain Observations

The reliable evaluation of the flood forecasting is a crucial problem for assessing flood risk and consequent damages. Different hydrological models (distributed, semi-distributed or lumped) have been proposed in order to deal with this issue. The choice of the proper model structure has been investigated by many authors and it is one of the main sources of uncertainty for a correct evaluation of the outflow hydrograph. In addition, the recent increasing of data availability makes possible to update hydrological models as response of real-time observations. For these reasons, the aim of this work it is to evaluate the effect of different structure of a semi-distributed hydrological model in the assimilation of distributed uncertain discharge observations. The study was applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, located in Italy. The first methodological step was to divide the basin in different sub-basins according to topographic characteristics. Secondly, two different structures of the semi-distributed hydrological model were implemented in order to estimate the outflow hydrograph. Then, synthetic observations of uncertain value of discharge were generated, as a function of the observed and simulated value of flow at the basin outlet, and assimilated in the semi-distributed models using a Kalman Filter. Finally, different spatial patterns of sensors location were assumed to update the model state as response of the uncertain discharge observations. The results of this work pointed out that, overall, the assimilation of uncertain observations can improve the hydrologic model performance. In particular, it was found that the model structure is an important factor, of difficult characterization, since can induce different forecasts in terms of outflow discharge. This study is partly supported by the FP7 EU Project WeSenseIt.

Hydropower Energy Simulation Using Mike 11 Model; A Case Study In South Germany's Small Run-Of-River Hydropower Plants

Renewable energy production is a basic supplement to stabilize rapidly increasing global energy demand and skyrocketing energy price as well as to balance the fluctuation of supply from non-renewable energy sources at electrical grid hubs. The European energy traders, government and private company energy providers and other stakeholders have been, since recently, a major beneficiary, customer and clients of Hydropower simulation solutions. The relationship between rainfall-runoff model outputs and energy productions of hydropower plants has not been clearly studied. In this research, association of rainfall, catchment characteristics, river network and runoff with energy production of a particular hydropower station is examined. The essence of this study is to justify the correspondence between runoff extracted from calibrated catchment and energy production of hydropower plant located at a catchment outlet; to employ a unique technique to convert runoff to energy based on statistical and graphical trend analysis of the two, and to provide environment for energy forecast. For rainfall-runoff model setup and calibration, MIKE 11 NAM model is applied, meanwhile MIKE 11 SO model is used to track, adopt and set a control strategy at hydropower location for runoff-energy correlation. The model is tested at two selected micro run-of-river hydropower plants located in South Germany. Two consecutive calibration is compromised to test the model; one for rainfall-runoff model and other for energy simulation. Calibration results and supporting verification plots of two case studies indicated that simulated discharge and energy production is comparable with the measured discharge and energy production respectively.

Brazilian international and inter-state trade flows: an exploratory analysis using the gravity model

Recent efforts toward a world with freer trade, like WTO/GATT or regional Preferential Trade Agreements(PTAs), were put in doubt after McCallum's(1995) finding of a large border effect between US and Canadian provinces. Since then, there has been a great amount of research on this topic employing the gravity equation. This dissertation has two goals. The first goal is to review comprehensively the recent literature about the gravity equation, including its usages, econometric specifications, and the efforts to provide it with microeconomic foundations. The second goal is the estimation of the Brazilian border effect (or 'home-bias trade puzzle') using inter-state and international trade flow data. It is used a pooled cross-section Tobit model. The lowest border effect estimated was 15, which implies that Brazilian states trade among themselves 15 times more than they trade with foreign countries. Further research using industry disaggregated data is needed to qualify the estimated border effect with respect to which part of that effect can be attributed to actual trade costs and which part is the outcome of the endogenous location problem of the firm.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

Breadcrumbs: location and context aware mobile platform for story sharing

With the current proliferation of sensor equipped mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets, location aware services are expanding beyond the mere efficiency and work related needs of users, evolving in order to incorporate fun, culture and the social life of users. Today people on the move have more and more connectivity and are expected to be able to communicate with their usual and familiar social networks. That means communications not only with their peers and colleagues, friends and family but also with unknown people that might share their interests, curiosities or happen to use the same social network. Through social networks, location aware blogging, cultural mobile applications relevant information is now available at specific geographical locations and open to feedback and conversations among friends as well as strangers. In fact, nowadays smartphone technologies aloud users to post and retrieve content while on the move, often relating to specific physical landmarks or locations, engaging and being engaged in conversations with strangers as much as their own social network. The use of such technologies and applications while on the move can often lead people to serendipitous discoveries and interactions. Throughout our thesis we are engaging on a two folded investigation: how can we foster and support serendipitous discoveries and what are the best interfaces for it? In fact, to read and write content while on the move is a cognitively intensive task. While the map serves the function of orienting the user, it also absorbs most of the user’s concentration. In order to address this kind of cognitive overload issue with Breadcrumbs we propose a 360 degrees interface that enables the user to find content around them by means of scanning the surrounding space with the mobile device. By using a loose metaphor of a periscope, harnessing the power of the smartphone sensors we designed an interactive interface capable of detecting content around the users and display it in the form of 2 dimensional bubbles which diameter depends on their distance from the users. Users will navigate the space in relation to the content that they are curious about, rather than in relation to the traditional geographical map. Through this model we envisage alleviating a certain cognitive overload generated by having to continuously confront a two dimensional map with the real three dimensional space surrounding the user, but also use the content as a navigational filter. Furthermore this alternative mean of navigating space might bring serendipitous discovery about places that user where not aware of or intending to reach. We hence conclude our thesis with the evaluation of the Breadcrumbs application and the comparison of the 360 degrees interface with a traditional 2 dimensional map displayed on the devise screen. Results from the evaluation are compiled in findings and insights for future use in designing and developing context aware mobile applications.

Improved Fault Location on Distribution Feeders Based on Matching During-Fault Voltage Sags

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)