Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Slow napalm

From Kurt Vonnegut to Stephen King, many novelists use metanarrative techniques to insert fictional versions of themselves in the stories they tell. The function of deploying such techniques is often to draw attention to the liminal space between the fictional constructs inherent in the novel as a form, and the real world from which the constructs draw inspiration, and indeed, are read by an audience. For emerging writers working in short form narratives, however, the structural demands of the short story or flash fiction make the use of similar techniques problematic in the level of depth to which they can be deployed. Slow Napalm, the first in series of short stories, works to overcome the structural limitations of a succinct form by developing a fractured fictional version of the author over a number of pieces and published across a range of sites. The accumulative affect is a richer metanarrative textual arrangement that also allows for the individual short stories to function independently.

The Joke

From Kurt Vonnegut to Stephen King, many novelists use metanarrative techniques to insert fictional versions of themselves in the stories they tell. The function of deploying such techniques is often to draw attention to the liminal space between the fictional constructs inherent in the novel as a form, and the real world from which the constructs draw inspiration, and indeed, are read by an audience. For emerging writers working in short form narratives, however, the structural demands of the short story or flash fiction make the use of similar techniques problematic in the level of depth to which they can be deployed. 'The Joke', the second in series of short stories, works to overcome the structural limitations of a succinct form by developing a fractured fictional version of the author over a number of pieces and published across a range of sites. The accumulative affect is a richer metanarrative textual arrangement that also allows for the individual short stories to function independently.

Experimental people

From Kurt Vonnegut to Stephen King, many novelists use metanarrative techniques to insert fictional versions of themselves in the stories they tell. The function of deploying such techniques is often to draw attention to the liminal space between the fictional constructs inherent in the novel as a form, and the real world from which the constructs draw inspiration, and indeed, are read by an audience. For emerging writers working in short form narratives, however, the structural demands of the short story or flash fiction make the use of similar techniques problematic in the level of depth to which they can be deployed. Experimental People, the third in series of short stories, works to overcome the structural limitations of a succinct form by developing a fractured fictional version of the author over a number of pieces and published across a range of sites. The accumulative affect is a richer metanarrative textual arrangement that also allows for the individual short stories to function independently.

Study of Pinna nobilis growth from inner record: How biased are posterior adductor muscle scars estimates?

Previous studies have shown that the external growth records of the posterior adductor muscle scar (PAMS) of the bivalve Pinna nobilis are incomplete and do not produce accurate age estimations. We have developed a new methodology to study age and growth using the inner record of the PAMS, which avoids the necessity of costly in situ shell measurements or isotopic studies. Using the inner record we identified the positions of PAMS previously obscured by nacre and estimated the number of missing records in adult specimens with strong abrasion of the calcite layer in the anterior portion of the shell. The study of the PAMS and inner record of two shells that were 6 years old when collected showed that only 2 and 3 PAMS were observed, while 6 inner records could be counted, thus confirming our working methodology. Growth parameters of a P. nobilis population located in Moraira, Spain (western Mediterranean) were estimated with the new methodology and compared to those obtained using PAMS data and in situ measurements. For the comparisons, we applied different models considering the data alternatively as length-at-age (LA) and tag-recapture (TR). Among every method we tested to fit the Von Bertalanffy growth model, we observed that LA data from inner record fitted to the model using non-linear mixed effects and the estimation of missing records using the calcite width was the most appropriate. The equation obtained with this method, L = 573*(1 - e(-0.16(t-0.02))), is very similar to that calculated previously from in situ measurements for the same population.

Truth, Proof and Gödelian Arguments : A Defence of Tarskian Truth in Mathematics

One of the most fundamental questions in the philosophy of mathematics concerns the relation between truth and formal proof. The position according to which the two concepts are the same is called deflationism, and the opposing viewpoint substantialism. In an important result of mathematical logic, Kurt Gödel proved in his first incompleteness theorem that all consistent formal systems containing arithmetic include sentences that can neither be proved nor disproved within that system. However, such undecidable Gödel sentences can be established to be true once we expand the formal system with Alfred Tarski s semantical theory of truth, as shown by Stewart Shapiro and Jeffrey Ketland in their semantical arguments for the substantiality of truth. According to them, in Gödel sentences we have an explicit case of true but unprovable sentences, and hence deflationism is refuted. Against that, Neil Tennant has shown that instead of Tarskian truth we can expand the formal system with a soundness principle, according to which all provable sentences are assertable, and the assertability of Gödel sentences follows. This way, the relevant question is not whether we can establish the truth of Gödel sentences, but whether Tarskian truth is a more plausible expansion than a soundness principle. In this work I will argue that this problem is best approached once we think of mathematics as the full human phenomenon, and not just consisting of formal systems. When pre-formal mathematical thinking is included in our account, we see that Tarskian truth is in fact not an expansion at all. I claim that what proof is to formal mathematics, truth is to pre-formal thinking, and the Tarskian account of semantical truth mirrors this relation accurately. However, the introduction of pre-formal mathematics is vulnerable to the deflationist counterargument that while existing in practice, pre-formal thinking could still be philosophically superfluous if it does not refer to anything objective. Against this, I argue that all truly deflationist philosophical theories lead to arbitrariness of mathematics. In all other philosophical accounts of mathematics there is room for a reference of the pre-formal mathematics, and the expansion of Tarkian truth can be made naturally. Hence, if we reject the arbitrariness of mathematics, I argue in this work, we must accept the substantiality of truth. Related subjects such as neo-Fregeanism will also be covered, and shown not to change the need for Tarskian truth. The only remaining route for the deflationist is to change the underlying logic so that our formal languages can include their own truth predicates, which Tarski showed to be impossible for classical first-order languages. With such logics we would have no need to expand the formal systems, and the above argument would fail. From the alternative approaches, in this work I focus mostly on the Independence Friendly (IF) logic of Jaakko Hintikka and Gabriel Sandu. Hintikka has claimed that an IF language can include its own adequate truth predicate. I argue that while this is indeed the case, we cannot recognize the truth predicate as such within the same IF language, and the need for Tarskian truth remains. In addition to IF logic, also second-order logic and Saul Kripke s approach using Kleenean logic will be shown to fail in a similar fashion.

Side Chain Structure Determines Unique Physiologic and Therapeutic Properties of norUrsodeoxycholic Acid in Mdr2(-/-) Mice

24-norursodeoxycholic acid (norUDCA), a side chain-modified ursodeoxycholic acid derivative, has dramatic therapeutic effects in experimental cholestasis and may be a promising agent for the treatment of cholestatic liver diseases. We aimed to better understand the physiologic and therapeutic properties of norUDCA and to test if they are related to its side chain length and/or relative resistance to amidation. For this purpose, Mdr2-/- mice, a model for sclerosing cholangitis, received either a standard diet or a norUDCA-, tauro norursodeoxycholic acid (tauro- norUDCA)-, or di norursodeoxycholic acid (di norUDCA)-enriched diet. Bile composition, serum biochemistry, liver histology, fibrosis, and expression of key detoxification and transport systems were investigated. Direct choleretic effects were addressed in isolated bile duct units. The role of Cftr for norUDCA-induced choleresis was explored in Cftr-/- mice. norUDCA had pharmacologic features that were not shared by its derivatives, including the increase in hepatic and serum bile acid levels and a strong stimulation of biliary HCO3- -output. norUDCA directly stimulated fluid secretion in isolated bile duct units in a HCO3- -dependent fashion to a higher extent than the other bile acids. Notably, the norUDCA significantly stimulated HCO 3- -output also in Cftr-/- mice. In Mdr2-/- mice, cholangitis and fibrosis strongly improved with norUDCA, remained unchanged with tauro- norUDCA, and worsened with di norUDCA. Expression of Mrp4, Cyp2b10, and Sult2a1 was increased by norUDCA and di norUDCA, but was unaffected by tauro- norUDCA. Conclusion:The relative resistance of norUDCA to amidation may explain its unique physiologic and pharmacologic properties. These include the ability to undergo cholehepatic shunting and to directly stimulate cholangiocyte secretion, both resulting in a HCO3- -rich hypercholeresis that protects the liver from cholestatic injury.

Gottschalk children at swim club forming a pyramid; Hannover, Germany.

Seated on grass Kurt Godshaw; left to right Walter, Freddy, Ursula; seated on ball Hal Godshaw

Gottschalk children at swim club forming a pyramid; Hannover, Germany.

Seated on grass Kurt Godshaw; left to right Walter, Freddy, Ursula; seated on ball Hal Godshaw

Fritz Gottschalk and his children boating on a mountain lake; Titisee, Germany.

From left to right: Ursula, Walter, Hal, Kurt, Fritz, and Elizabeth Gottschalk; the lake is probably the Titisee near the Swiss border in the Black Forest, Germany

Therese Godshaw's nee Molling 70th birthday party at the Krakauer home; Boston Portraits Family

Left to right behind table: John Krakauer, Donald, Michael and Robert Godshaw (Children of Hal and Anne), Grandma Therese Godshaw nee Molling, Julius Pick (Grandfather of Robert, Michael and Donald). In front of table: Wendy and Gerry Godshaw (children of Kurt and Edith.

Outdoor family portrait after the memorial services for Therese Godshaw nee Molling at Hal Godshaws house; Argonne Drive, Kenmore, New York.

Front row from left to right: Robert Godshaw, Wendy Godshaw, Rosel Pick (Anne Godshaw's mother), Debbie Godshaw born Mariner, Hal Godshaaw, Francis Schlosstein; 2nd row from left to right: David Dysert, Mickey Sloan born McMath, Edith Godshaw nee Osterer, baby (probably Gary Godshaw), Anne Godshaw born Pick, Julius Pick (Anne's father), Ursula Schlosstein born Gottschalk, Elizabeth Krakauer nee Gottschalk, Michael Godshaw; back row from left to right: Charles (Karl-Hermann Solomon) Sloan, Gerald Godshaw (partially hidden), unknown (probably Peter Godshaw), Kurt Godshaw, John Krakauer, Donald Godshaw, Tom Krakauer, Ralph Schlosstein, John Schlosstein.

Outdoor family portrait after the memorial services for Therese Godshaw nee Molling at Hal Godshaws house; Argonne Drive, Kenmore, New York.

Front row from left to right: Robert Godshaw, Wendy Godshaw, Rosel Pick (Anne Godshaw's mother), Debbie Godshaw born Mariner, Hal Godshaaw, Francis Schlosstein; 2nd row from left to right: David Dysert, Mickey Sloan born McMath, Edith Godshaw nee Osterer, baby (probably Gary Godshaw), Anne Godshaw born Pick, Julius Pick (Anne's father), Ursula Schlosstein born Gottschalk, Elizabeth Krakauer nee Gottschalk, Michael Godshaw; back row from left to right: Charlie Sloan, Gerald Godshaw (partially hidden), unknown, Kurt Godshaw, John Krakauer, Donald Godshaw, Tom Krakauer, Ralph Schlosstein, John Schlosstein.

Gottschalk family in the park; Hannover, Germany. Portraits Family

Left to right: Therese Godshaw (Gottschalk) nee Molling, Walter, Freddy, Grandmother Henriette Gottschalk nee Rothschild, Ursula, Hal and Kurt

The Gottschalk family seated around the dining table; Seelhorst Strasse 26, Hannover Portraits Family

From left to right: Kurt, Therese nee Molling, Ursula, the maid, Elizabeth and Hal,