Stochastic climate theory and modeling

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation, and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large-scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochastic components and non-Markovian (memory) terms. Stochastic approaches in numerical weather and climate prediction models also lead to the reduction of model biases. Hence, there is a clear need for systematic stochastic approaches in weather and climate modeling. In this review, we present evidence for stochastic effects in laboratory experiments. Then we provide an overview of stochastic climate theory from an applied mathematics perspective. We also survey the current use of stochastic methods in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models and show that stochastic parameterizations have the potential to remedy many of the current biases in these comprehensive models.

Plague of diagrams

Group exhibition curated by Plastique Fantastique. Organised by David Burrows and Dean Kenning in collaboration with Ami Clarke, Andrew Conio, John Cussans and David Osbaldeston. Contributors: David Burrows, Rachel Cattle & Jenna Collins, Neil Chapman & Gillian Wylde, Ami Clarke, Richard Cochrane, Andrew Conio, John Cussans, David Burrows, Benedict Drew, English Heretic, Nikolaus Gansterer, Joey Holder, Dean Kenning, Christoph Lueder, Stine Llungdalh, Adelheid Mers, Mike Nelson, Paul O'Kane, David Osbaldeston, Plastique Fantastique, Patricia Reed, John Russell, Erica Scourti, Andy Sharp, Kamini Vellodi, Martin Westwood and Carey Young.

Long-term positive effects of repeating a year in school: Six-year longitudinal study of self-beliefs, anxiety, social relations, school grades, and test scores

Consistently with a priori predictions, school retention (repeating a year in school) had largely positive effects for a diverse range of 10 outcomes (e.g., math self-concept, self-efficacy, anxiety, relations with teachers, parents and peers, school grades, and standardized achievement test scores). The design, based on a large, representative sample of German students (N = 1,325, M age = 11.75 years) measured each year during the first five years of secondary school, was particularly strong. It featured four independent retention groups (different groups of students, each repeating one of the four first years of secondary school, total N = 103), with multiple post-test waves to evaluate short- and long-term effects, controlling for covariates (gender, age, SES, primary school grades, IQ) and one or more sets of 10 outcomes realised prior to retention. Tests of developmental invariance demonstrated that the effects of retention (controlling for covariates and pre-retention outcomes) were highly consistent across this potentially volatile early-to-middle adolescent period; largely positive effects in the first year following retention were maintained in subsequent school years following retention. Particularly considering that these results are contrary to at least some of the accepted wisdom about school retention, the findings have important implications for educational researchers, policymakers and parents.

Leukotrienes Target F-actin/Cofilin-1 to Enhance Alveolar Macrophage Anti-fungal Activity

Candida albicans is the most common opportunistic fungal pathogen and causes local and systemic disease in immunocompromised patients. Alveolar macrophages (AMs) are pivotal for the clearance of C. albicans from the lung. Activated AMs secrete 5-lipoxygenase-derived leukotrienes (LTs), which in turn enhance phagocytosis and microbicidal activity against a diverse array of pathogens. Our aim was to investigate the role of LTB(4) and LTD(4) in AM antimicrobial functions against C. albicans and the signaling pathways involved. Pharmacologic and genetic inhibition of LT biosynthesis as well as receptor antagonism reduced phagocytosis of C. albicans when compared with untreated or WT controls. Conversely, exogenous LTs of both classes augmented base-line C. albicans phagocytosis by AMs. Although LTB(4) enhanced mainly mannose receptor-dependent fungal ingestion, LTD(4) enhanced mainly dectin-1 receptor-mediated phagocytosis. LT enhancement of yeast ingestion was dependent on protein kinase C-delta (PKC delta) and PI3K but not PKC alpha and MAPK activation. Both LTs reduced activation of cofilin-1, whereas they enhanced total cellular F-actin; however, LTB(4) accomplished this through the activation of LIM kinases (LIMKs) 1 and 2, whereas LTD(4) did so exclusively via LIMK-2. Finally, both exogenous LTB(4) and LTD(4) enhanced AM fungicidal activity in an NADPH oxidase-dependent manner. Our data identify LTB(4) and LTD(4) as key mediators of innate immunity against C. albicans, which act by both distinct and conserved signaling mechanisms to enhance multiple antimicrobial functions of AMs.

Luminescence studies on nitride quaternary alloys double quantum wells

We present theoretical photoluminescence (PL) spectra of undoped and p-doped Al(x)In(1-xy)Ga(y)N/Al(X)In(1) (X) (Y)Ga(Y)N double quantum wells (DQWs). The calculations were performed within the k.p method by means of solving a full eight-band Kane Hamiltonian together with the Poisson equation in a plane wave representation, including exchange-correlation effects within the local density approximation. Strain effects due to the lattice mismatch are also taken into account. We show the calculated PL spectra, analyzing the blue and red-shifts in energy as one varies the spike and the well widths, as well as the acceptor doping concentration. We found a transition between a regime of isolated quantum wells and that of interacting DQWs. Since there are few studies of optical properties of quantum wells based on nitride quaternary alloys, the results reported here will provide guidelines for the interpretation of forthcoming experiments. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of Age on Outcome of Reduced-Intensity Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Older Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia in First Complete Remission or With Myelodysplastic Syndrome

Purpose Acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) primarily afflict older individuals. Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is generally not offered because of concerns of excess morbidity and mortality. Reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens allow increased use of allogeneic HCT for older patients. To define prognostic factors impacting long-term outcomes of RIC regimens in patients older than age 40 years with AML in first complete remission or MDS and to determine the impact of age, we analyzed data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR). Patients and Methods We reviewed data reported to the CIBMTR (1995 to 2005) on 1,080 patients undergoing RIC HCT. Outcomes analyzed included neutrophil recovery, incidence of acute or chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), nonrelapse mortality (NRM), relapse, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS). Results Univariate analyses demonstrated no age group differences in NRM, grade 2 to 4 acute GVHD, chronic GVHD, or relapse. Patients age 40 to 54, 55 to 59, 60 to 64, and >= 65 years had 2-year survival rates as follows: 44% (95% Cl, 37% to 52%), 50% (95% Cl, 41% to 59%), 34% (95% Cl, 25% to 43%), and 36% (95% Cl, 24% to 49%), respectively, for patients with AML (P = .06); and 42% (95% Cl, 35% to 49%), 35% (95% Cl, 27% to 43%), 45% (95% Cl, 36% to 54%), and 38% (95% Cl, 25% to 51%), respectively, for patients with MDS (P = .37). Multivariate analysis revealed no significant impact of age on NRM, relapse, DFS, or OS (all P>.3). Greater HLA disparity adversely affected 2-year NRM, DFS, and OS. Unfavorable cytogenetics adversely impacted relapse, DFS, and OS. Better pre-HCT performance status predicted improved 2-year OS. Conclusion With these similar outcomes observed in older patients, we conclude that older age alone should not be considered a contraindication to HCT.

What do they expect? : A case study on the work expectations of the working German Generation Y

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the expectations of the workingGerman Generation Y regarding its current work and employer. As a result, the mainelements which could be considered by companies to retain the Generation Y inGermany will be pointed out and discussed.Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews were used in order toexplore the work expectations of this young generation within a German company. Anon-probability and purposive sample was used and six respondents part of theGeneration Y and working in the same company were interviewed. Furthermore, aseventh interview was conducted with the HMR of the company.Findings – Several findings are consistent with previous results of Gen Y from othernationalities than Germany such as the importance of varied tasks, opportunities forself-development, responsibilities and a pleasant working atmosphere. However,differences were found in particular regarding the importance of the work-life balanceand new expectations such as trust, autonomy and internationality have been broughtto light. Furthermore, several findings are also consistent with other studies aboutemployee retention, commitment and job satisfaction.Originality/value – This research extended previous studies of the expectations of theGeneration Y by providing firstly findings for Germany, a country where such studieshave not been conducted yet and secondly by focusing on the Generation Y who isalready working and therefore not studying anymore.

Pedagogia crítica e o uso de filmes de longa metragem em sala de aula

A utilização de filmes de longa metragem no ensino de Administração vem recebendo crescente atenção de professores e pesquisadores. Diversos trabalhos científicos apontam tal uso como recurso pedagógico complementar ao uso de textos didáticos, estudos de casos e outros recursos. Entretanto, a literatura disponível parece adotar uma postura conservadora e conformista: em geral, os textos científicos registram e recomendam o uso de filmes comerciais norte-americanos para ilustrar conceitos da literatura gerencialista. Este trabalho toma como ponto de partida a discussão da crise no ensino de gestão e trata da questão do uso de filmes de longa metragem a partir de uma perspectiva crítica sobre a pedagogia e os conteúdos. Como ilustração, é discutida a utilização de Cidadão Kane , filme de Orson Welles, e Terra em Transe , filme de Glauber Rocha, em aulas de pós-graduação em Administração. O artigo trata das principais questões envolvendo o uso de filmes e traz pontos de reflexão para professores interessados em aperfeiçoar o uso desse recurso em sala de aula.

Efeitos da baixa liquidez em posições compradas em relação às posições vendidas sobre o desempenho de fundos long short em situação de crise sistêmica (2008)

Diversos estudos sobre investimentos em Ações e Fundos de Investimentos no Brasil, mais especificamente sobre Fundos Multimercados Long-Short, focam em sua neutralidade em relação ao Ibovespa bem como na performance de seus gestores e de suas respectivas estratégias, como Penna (2007) e Gomes e Cresto (2010). Com ênfase na comparação entre a liquidez da posição comprada e a da posição vendida em ações, foi verificado o comportamento de fundos long-short em situações normais e de crise, do período que vai de 2007 a 2009. Foram encontrados fortes indícios de que houve perda maior em momentos de estresse por parte de fundos que carregavam ações menos líquidas em suas carteiras na posição comprada em relação a posição vendida, apesar do número reduzido de fundos estudados e também de ter sido utilizado periodicidade mensal. Encontrou-se um retorno médio em 2008 de 11,1% para uma carteira formada por fundos com ações mais líquidas na posição comprada do que na posição vendida e 5,4% para uma carteira com posição inversa. Uma análise de risco-retorno feita com o Índice de Sharpe (IS) corrobora o estudo, pois a carteira composta por fundos com posição mais líquida na posição vendida apresentou IS de -1,5368, bem inferior ao IS de -0,3374 da carteira de posição inversa (mais líquida na posição comprada). Foi também utilizado o Modelo Índice, como em Bodie, Kane e Marcus (2005), para verificar se esses fundos, separados em carteiras divididas entre mais líquidos na posição comprada do que na posição vendida e vice-versa, tinham desempenho melhor que o mercado (IBOVESPA) de maneira sistemática (alpha=α) e a exposição dessas carteiras ao risco de mercado (Beta = β), além do Modelo de Fatores. As regressões realizadas para os modelos citados encontram coeficientes e respectivas inferências estatísticas que respaldam a hipótese acima, apesar de baixo número de observações utilizado.

O cinema, o jogo e a cultura

práticas artificiais, que incluem a experiência midiática, numa negociação/conciliação permanente entre a cultura objetiva (social) e a subjetiva (do indivíduo). A mediação cotidiana e fundamental é a comunicação do real com o imaginário. Para além do ato ou efeito de mediar, de estar entre, as mediações são a articulação entre práticas de comunicação e movimentos sociais; são as modalidades da comunicação dentro das quais se inserem os meios e que estão ligadas ao sensorium dos modos de percepção e da experiência social. O cinema reflete esse quadro como produto de uma experiência coletiva de fascínio mágico, um lugar de participação afetiva. Comporta elementos do jogo não competitivo e também apresenta elementos do sagrado pela alimentação e divulgação de mitos, pela ritualização convertida em periodicidade e pelo extraordinário evocado em êxtase profano.

The Genome Sequence of Taurine Cattle: A Window to Ruminant Biology and Evolution

To understand the biology and evolution of ruminants, the cattle genome was sequenced to about sevenfold coverage. The cattle genome contains a minimum of 22,000 genes, with a core set of 14,345 orthologs shared among seven mammalian species of which 1217 are absent or undetected in noneutherian (marsupial or monotreme) genomes. Cattle-specific evolutionary breakpoint regions in chromosomes have a higher density of segmental duplications, enrichment of repetitive elements, and species-specific variations in genes associated with lactation and immune responsiveness. Genes involved in metabolism are generally highly conserved, although five metabolic genes are deleted or extensively diverged from their human orthologs. The cattle genome sequence thus provides a resource for understanding mammalian evolution and accelerating livestock genetic improvement for milk and meat production.

PTEN Directly Activates the Actin Depolymerization Factor Cofilin-1 During PGE(2)-Mediated Inhibition of Phagocytosis of Fungi

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

O futuro do presente: a mídia audiovisual e a sociedade contemporânea na ficção científica do cinema de animação

This research presents a study that seeks to analyze the images of the future in science fiction movies, specifically those made through animation techniques, exploring particularly the representation of audiovisual communication medias in its dialogue with the approached societies in the movies chosen to be analyzed. The proposed discussion seeks approximations in order to answer to the question that initiated this research: how are we thinking the future nowadays? It also seeks to, according to Morin (1997), comprehend aspects of the contemporary society by using the cinema, and at the same time, to understand the cinema, aided by a social analysis

The Hunt for New Physics at the Large Hadron Collider

The Large Hadron Collider presents an unprecedented opportunity to probe the realm of new physics in the TeV region and shed light on some of the core unresolved issues of particle physics. These include the nature of electroweak symmetry breaking, the origin of mass, the possible constituent of cold dark matter, new sources of CP violation needed to explain the baryon excess in the universe, the possible existence of extra gauge groups and extra matter, and importantly the path Nature chooses to resolve the hierarchy problem - is it supersymmetry or extra dimensions. Many models of new physics beyond the standard model contain a hidden sector which can be probed at the LHC. Additionally, the LHC will be a. top factory and accurate measurements of the properties of the top and its rare decays will provide a window to new physics. Further, the LHC could shed light on the origin of neutralino masses if the new physics associated with their generation lies in the TeV region. Finally, the LHC is also a laboratory to test the hypothesis of TeV scale strings and D brane models. An overview of these possibilities is presented in the spirit that it will serve as a companion to the Technical Design Reports (TDRs) by the particle detector groups ATLAS and CMS to facilitate the test of the new theoretical ideas at the LHC. Which of these ideas stands the test of the LHC data will govern the course of particle physics in the subsequent decades.