Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Singling out individual inventors from patent data

An increasing number of studies in recent years have sought to identify individual inventors from patent data. A variety of heuristics have been proposed for using the names and other information disclosed in patent documents to establish who is who in patents. This paper contributes to this literature by describing a methodology for identifying inventors using patents applied to the European Patent Office, EPO hereafter. As in much of this literature, we basically follow a threestep procedure : 1- the parsing stage, aimed at reducing the noise in the inventor’s name and other fields of the patent; 2- the matching stage, where name matching algorithms are used to group similar names; and 3- the filtering stage, where additional information and various scoring schemes are used to filter out these similarlynamed inventors. The paper presents the results obtained by using the algorithms with the set of European inventors applying to the EPO over a long period of time.

Question Waves: A multicast query routing algorithm for social search

This paper describes Question Waves, an algorithm that can be applied to social search protocols, such as Asknext or Sixearch. In this model, the queries are propagated through the social network, with faster propagation through more trustable acquaintances. Question Waves uses local information to make decisions and obtain an answer ranking. With Question Waves, the answers that arrive first are the most likely to be relevant, and we computed the correlation of answer relevance with the order of arrival to demonstrate this result. We obtained correlations equivalent to the heuristics that use global knowledge, such as profile similarity among users or the expertise value of an agent. Because Question Waves is compatible with the social search protocol Asknext, it is possible to stop a search when enough relevant answers have been found; additionally, stopping the search early only introduces a minimal risk of not obtaining the best possible answer. Furthermore, Question Waves does not require a re-ranking algorithm because the results arrive sorted

How to Model Heterogeneity in Costly Punishment: Insights from Responders' Response Times

We investigate what processes may underlie heterogeneity in social preferences. We address this question by examining participants' decisions and associated response times across 12 mini-ultimatum games. Using a finite mixture model and cross-validating its classification with a response time analysis, we identified four groups of responders: one group takes little to no account of the proposed split or the foregone allocation and swiftly accepts any positive offer; two groups process primarily the objective properties of the allocations (fairness and kindness) and need more time the more properties need to be examined; and a fourth group, which takes more time than the others, appears to take into account what they would have proposed had they been put in the role of the proposer. We discuss implications of this joint decision-response time analysis.

Anàlisi de la usabilitat web del Departament d'Ensenyament de la Generalitat de Catalunya

En el present treball farem un anàlisis complet de la usabilitat del lloc web del Departament d'Ensenyament de la Generalitat de Catalunya, tant des de el punt de vista heurístic com de l'ús en entorn real. Identificarem els punts forts i dèbils i, finalment, farem una proposta breu de millora i treball futur. Volem d'aquesta manera millorar l'experiència del ciutadà amb la institució i la qualitat de la seva relació.

Random walk radiosity with generalized absorption probabilities

The author studies random walk estimators for radiosity with generalized absorption probabilities. That is, a path will either die or survive on a patch according to an arbitrary probability. The estimators studied so far, the infinite path length estimator and finite path length one, can be considered as particular cases. Practical applications of the random walks with generalized probabilities are given. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of the variance is given, together with heuristics to be used in practical cases. The optimal probabilities are also found for the case when one is interested in the whole scene, and are equal to the reflectivities

Algorithmic Solutions for Combinatorial Problems in Resource Management of Manufacturing Environments

This thesis studies the use of heuristic algorithms in a number of combinatorial problems that occur in various resource constrained environments. Such problems occur, for example, in manufacturing, where a restricted number of resources (tools, machines, feeder slots) are needed to perform some operations. Many of these problems turn out to be computationally intractable, and heuristic algorithms are used to provide efficient, yet sub-optimal solutions. The main goal of the present study is to build upon existing methods to create new heuristics that provide improved solutions for some of these problems. All of these problems occur in practice, and one of the motivations of our study was the request for improvements from industrial sources. We approach three different resource constrained problems. The first is the tool switching and loading problem, and occurs especially in the assembly of printed circuit boards. This problem has to be solved when an efficient, yet small primary storage is used to access resources (tools) from a less efficient (but unlimited) secondary storage area. We study various forms of the problem and provide improved heuristics for its solution. Second, the nozzle assignment problem is concerned with selecting a suitable set of vacuum nozzles for the arms of a robotic assembly machine. It turns out that this is a specialized formulation of the MINMAX resource allocation formulation of the apportionment problem and it can be solved efficiently and optimally. We construct an exact algorithm specialized for the nozzle selection and provide a proof of its optimality. Third, the problem of feeder assignment and component tape construction occurs when electronic components are inserted and certain component types cause tape movement delays that can significantly impact the efficiency of printed circuit board assembly. Here, careful selection of component slots in the feeder improves the tape movement speed. We provide a formal proof that this problem is of the same complexity as the turnpike problem (a well studied geometric optimization problem), and provide a heuristic algorithm for this problem.

Kysynnän ennakointiprosessin kehittäminen leipomoyrityksessä

Tämän työn tarkoituksena on kehittää lyhyen tähtäimen kysynnän ennakointiprosessia VAASAN Oy:ssä, jossa osa tuotteista valmistetaan kysyntäennakoiden perusteella. Valmistettavien tuotteiden luonteesta johtuva varastointimahdollisuuden puuttuminen, korkea toimitusvarmuustavoite sekä tarvittavien ennakoiden suuri määrä asettavat suuret haasteet kysynnän ennakointiprosessille. Työn teoriaosuudessa käsitellään kysynnän ennustamisen tarvetta, ennusteiden käyttökohteita sekä kysynnän ennustamismenetelmiä. Pelkällä kysynnän ennustamisella ei kuitenkaan päästä toimitusketjun kannalta optimaaliseen lopputulokseen, vaan siihen tarvitaan kokonaisvaltaista kysynnän hallintaa. Se on prosessi, jonka tavoitteena on tasapainottaa toimitusketjun kyvykkyydet ja asiakkaiden vaatimukset keskenään mahdollisimman tehokkaasti. Työssä tutkittiin yrityksessä kolmen kuukauden aikana eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmällä laadittuja ennakoita sekä ennakoijien tekemiä muutoksia niihin. Tutkimuksen perusteella optimaalinen eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen alfa-kerroin on 0,6. Ennakoijien tilastollisiin ennakoihin tekemät muutokset paransivat ennakoiden tarkkuutta ja ne olivat erityisen tehokkaita toimituspuutteiden minimoimisessa. Lisäksi työn tuloksena ennakoijien käyttöön saatiin monia päivittäisiä rutiineja helpottavia ja automatisoivia työkaluja.

Mapping financial stability

The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of a systemwide, or macroprudential, approach to safeguarding financial stability. An essential part of macroprudential oversight concerns the tasks of early identification and assessment of risks and vulnerabilities that eventually may lead to a systemic financial crisis. Thriving tools are crucial as they allow early policy actions to decrease or prevent further build-up of risks or to otherwise enhance the shock absorption capacity of the financial system. In the literature, three types of systemic risk can be identified: i ) build-up of widespread imbalances, ii ) exogenous aggregate shocks, and iii ) contagion. Accordingly, the systemic risks are matched by three categories of analytical methods for decision support: i ) early-warning, ii ) macro stress-testing, and iii ) contagion models. Stimulated by the prolonged global financial crisis, today's toolbox of analytical methods includes a wide range of innovative solutions to the two tasks of risk identification and risk assessment. Yet, the literature lacks a focus on the task of risk communication. This thesis discusses macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of all three tasks: Within analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment, the focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. The overall task of this thesis is to represent high-dimensional data concerning financial entities on lowdimensional displays. The low-dimensional representations have two subtasks: i ) to function as a display for individual data concerning entities and their time series, and ii ) to use the display as a basis to which additional information can be linked. The final nuance of the task is, however, set by the needs of the domain, data and methods. The following ve questions comprise subsequent steps addressed in the process of this thesis: 1. What are the needs for macroprudential oversight? 2. What form do macroprudential data take? 3. Which data and dimension reduction methods hold most promise for the task? 4. How should the methods be extended and enhanced for the task? 5. How should the methods and their extensions be applied to the task? Based upon the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), this thesis not only creates the Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), but also lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. This thesis also introduces three extensions to the standard SOM for enhancing the visualization and extraction of information: i ) fuzzifications, ii ) transition probabilities, and iii ) network analysis. Thus, the SOFSM functions as a display for risk identification, on top of which risk assessments can be illustrated. In addition, this thesis puts forward the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) to provide means for visual dynamic clustering, which in the context of macroprudential oversight concerns the identification of cross-sectional changes in risks and vulnerabilities over time. Rather than automated analysis, the aim of visual means for identifying and assessing risks is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence, as well as external risk communication.

Kuljetustensuunnittelu- ja reitinoptimointiohjelmiston kaupallistamiseen vaikuttavat keskeiset ominaisuudet

Ajoneuvojen reititystä on tutkittu 1950-luvulta asti, alunperin etsiessä polttoainekuljetuksille optimaalisinta reittiä varastolta useille palveluasemille. Siitä lähtien ajoneuvon reititystehtäviä on tutkittu akateemisesti ja niistä on muodostettu kymmeniä erilaisia variaatioita. Tehtävien ratkaisumenetelmät jaetaan tyypillisesti tarkkoihin menetelmiin sekä heuristiikkoihin ja metaheuristiikkoihin. Konetehon ja heuristiikoissa käytettävien algoritmien kehittymisen myötä reitinoptimointia on alettu tarjota kaupallisesti. CO-SKY-projektin tavoitteena on kaupallistaa web-pohjainen tai toiminnanohjausjärjestelmään integroitava ajoneuvon reititys. Diplomityössä tutkitaan kuljetustensuunnittelu- ja reitinoptimointiohjelmistojen kaupallistamiseen vaikuttavia keskeisiä ominaisuuksia. Ominaisuuksia on tarkasteltu: 1) erityisesti pk-kuljetusyritysten tarpeiden ja vaatimusten pohjalta, ja 2) markkinoilla olevien ohjelmistojen tarjontaa arvioiden. Näiden pohjalta on myös pyritty arvioimaan kysynnän ja tarjonnan kohtaamista. Pilottiasiakkaita haastattelemalla ohjelmistolle on kyetty asettamaan vaatimuksia, mutta samalla on kuultu käyttäjien mielipiteitä optimoinnista. Lukuisia logistiikkaohjelmistojen tarjoajia on haastateltu logistiikkamessuilla sekä Suomessa että Saksassa. Haastattelujen perusteella on saatu käsitys kyseisistä ohjelmista sekä optimoinnin tarjonnasta että kysynnästä. Akateeminen tutkimus aiheesta on laajaa, koskien niin teknistä toteutusta kuin myös (kysely-)tutkimuksia tarjolla olevien ohjelmistojen ominaisuuksista ja laadusta. Kuljetusyritysten tarpeissa on vaihtelua yritys- ja alakohtaisesti. Perusongelmat ovat samoja, joita reitinoptimoinnin akateemisessa tutkimuksessa käsitellään ja joita kaupalliset ohjelmistot pystyvät ratkaisemaan. Vaikka reitinoptimoinnilla saatavat hyödyt ovat mitattavissa, suunnittelu etenkin pk-yrityksissä tehdään pääosin yhä käsin. Messuhaastattelujen ja loppukäyttäjien mielipiteiden perusteella voidaan todeta kaupallisten ratkaisujen olevan suunniteltu isommille kuljetusyrityksille: tyypillisen it-projektin hinta, käyttöönottoaika ja asennus sekä ratkaisun takaisinmaksuaika vaikuttavat pk-yritysten hankintapäätökseen. Kaupallistamiseen liittyen haasteet liittyvät erityisesti segmentointiin ja markkinointiin asiakasarvon todentamisen ja sen välittämisen kautta.

Usability comparison of open source content management systems

The purpose of this thesis is to study, investigate and compare usability of open source cms. The thesis examines and compares usability aspect of some open source cms. The research is divided into two complementary parts –theoretical part and analytical part. The theoretical part mainly describes open source web content management systems, usability and the evaluation methods. The analytical part is to compare and analyze the results found from the empirical research. Heuristic evaluation method was used to measure usability problems in the interfaces. The study is fairly limited in scope; six tasks were designed and implemented in each interface for discovering defects in the interfaces. Usability problems were rated according to their level of severity. Time it took by each task, level of problem’s severity and type of heuristics violated will be recorded, analyzed and compared. The results of this study indicate that the comparing systems provide usable interfaces, and WordPress is recognized as the most usable system.

Design and evaluation of web interface signs to improve web usability : a semiotic framework

Technological innovations, the development of the internet, and globalization have increased the number and complexity of web applications. As a result, keeping web user interfaces understandable and usable (in terms of ease-of-use, effectiveness, and satisfaction) is a challenge. As part of this, designing userintuitive interface signs (i.e., the small elements of web user interface, e.g., navigational link, command buttons, icons, small images, thumbnails, etc.) is an issue for designers. Interface signs are key elements of web user interfaces because ‘interface signs’ act as a communication artefact to convey web content and system functionality, and because users interact with systems by means of interface signs. In the light of the above, applying semiotic (i.e., the study of signs) concepts on web interface signs will contribute to discover new and important perspectives on web user interface design and evaluation. The thesis mainly focuses on web interface signs and uses the theory of semiotic as a background theory. The underlying aim of this thesis is to provide valuable insights to design and evaluate web user interfaces from a semiotic perspective in order to improve overall web usability. The fundamental research question is formulated as What do practitioners and researchers need to be aware of from a semiotic perspective when designing or evaluating web user interfaces to improve web usability? From a methodological perspective, the thesis follows a design science research (DSR) approach. A systematic literature review and six empirical studies are carried out in this thesis. The empirical studies are carried out with a total of 74 participants in Finland. The steps of a design science research process are followed while the studies were designed and conducted; that includes (a) problem identification and motivation, (b) definition of objectives of a solution, (c) design and development, (d) demonstration, (e) evaluation, and (f) communication. The data is collected using observations in a usability testing lab, by analytical (expert) inspection, with questionnaires, and in structured and semi-structured interviews. User behaviour analysis, qualitative analysis and statistics are used to analyze the study data. The results are summarized as follows and have lead to the following contributions. Firstly, the results present the current status of semiotic research in UI design and evaluation and highlight the importance of considering semiotic concepts in UI design and evaluation. Secondly, the thesis explores interface sign ontologies (i.e., sets of concepts and skills that a user should know to interpret the meaning of interface signs) by providing a set of ontologies used to interpret the meaning of interface signs, and by providing a set of features related to ontology mapping in interpreting the meaning of interface signs. Thirdly, the thesis explores the value of integrating semiotic concepts in usability testing. Fourthly, the thesis proposes a semiotic framework (Semiotic Interface sign Design and Evaluation – SIDE) for interface sign design and evaluation in order to make them intuitive for end users and to improve web usability. The SIDE framework includes a set of determinants and attributes of user-intuitive interface signs, and a set of semiotic heuristics to design and evaluate interface signs. Finally, the thesis assesses (a) the quality of the SIDE framework in terms of performance metrics (e.g., thoroughness, validity, effectiveness, reliability, etc.) and (b) the contributions of the SIDE framework from the evaluators’ perspective.

The demand-supply balancing process in supply chain management - case mining & metals industry equipment

The aim of this thesis is to search how to match the demand and supply effectively in industrial and project-oriented business environment. The demand-supply balancing process is searched through three different phases: the demand planning and forecasting, synchronization of demand and supply and measurement of the results. The thesis contains a single case study that has been implemented in a company called Outotec. In the case study the demand is planned and forecasted with qualitative (judgmental) forecasting method. The quantitative forecasting methods are searched further to support the demand forecast and long term planning. The sales and operations planning process is used in the synchronization of the demand and supply. The demand forecast is applied in the management of a supply chain of critical unit of elemental analyzer. Different meters on operational and strategic level are proposed for the measurement of performance.