Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

A versatile toolkit to produce sensitive FRET biosensors to visualize signaling in time and space

Genetically encoded, ratiometric biosensors based on fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) are powerful tools to study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cell signaling. However, many biosensors lack sensitivity. We present a biosensor library that contains circularly permutated mutants for both the donor and acceptor fluorophores, which alter the orientation of the dipoles and thus better accommodate structural constraints imposed by different signaling molecules while maintaining FRET efficiency. Our strategy improved the brightness and dynamic range of preexisting RhoA and extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase (ERK) biosensors. Using the improved RhoA biosensor, we found micrometer-sized zones of RhoA activity at the tip of F-actin bundles in growth cone filopodia during neurite extension, whereas RhoA was globally activated throughout collapsing growth cones. RhoA was also activated in filopodia and protruding membranes at the leading edge of motile fibroblasts. Using the improved ERK biosensor, we simultaneously measured ERK activation dynamics in multiple cells using low-magnification microscopy and performed in vivo FRET imaging in zebrafish. Thus, we provide a construction toolkit consisting of a vector set, which enables facile generation of sensitive biosensors.

MEDICAL CARE UTILIZATION IN TIME AMONG ELDERLY MEDICARE ENROLLEES IN AN HMO

Investigation into the medical care utilization of elderly Medicare enrollees in an HMO (Kaiser - Portland, Oregon): The specific research topics are: (1) The utilization of medical care by selected determinants such as: place of service, type of service, type of appointment, physician status, physician specialty and number of associated morbidities. (2) The attended prevalence of 3 chronic diseases: hypertension, diabetes and arthritis in addition to pneumonias as an example of acute diseases. The selection of these examples was based on their importance in morbidity/or mortality results among the elderly. The share of these diseases in outpatient and inpatient contacts was examined as an example of the relation between morbidity and medical care utilization. (3) The tendency of individual utilization patterns to persist in subsequent time periods. The concept of contagion or proneness was studied in a period of 2 years. Fitting the negative binomial and the Poisson distributions was applied to the utilization in the 2nd year conditional on that in the 1st year as regards outpatient and inpatient contacts.^ The present research is based on a longitudinal study of 20% random sample of elderly Medicare enrollees. The sample size is 1683 individuals during the period from August 1980-December 1982.^ The results of the research were: (1) The distribution of contacts by selected determinants did not reveal a consistent pattern between sexes and age groups. (2) The attended prevalence of hypertension and arthritis showed excess prevalence among females. For diabetes and pneumonias no female excess was noticed. Consistent increased prevalence with increasing age was not detected.^ There were important findings pertaining to the relatively big share of the combined 3 chronic diseases in utilization. They accounted for 20% of male outpatient contacts vs. 25% of female outpatients. For inpatient contacts, they consumed 20% in case of males vs. 24% in case of females. (3) Finding that the negative binomial distribution fit the utilization experience supported the research hypothesis concerning the concept of contagion in utilization. This important finding can be helpful in estimating liability functions needed for forecasting future utilization according to previous experience. Such information has its relevance to organization, administration and planning for medical care in general. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

Chapter 3 Knowledge Exchanges and Innovation in Connected Firms: Evidence from Upstream-Downstream Relationships

This paper proposes evidences for linking innovation and knowledge exchanges in developing economies towards a comprehensive theory of new economic geography in the knowledge based spatial economy. Firms which dispatched engineers to customers achieved more innovations than firms which did not. Mutual sharing of knowledge also stimulates innovations. A just-in-time relationship is effective for dealing with upgrading production process. But such strong complementarities with partners are not effective for product innovation.. These evidences support the hypothesis that face-to-face communication and complementarities among production linkages have different roles in knowledge creation.

A second order in time modified Lagrange-Galerkin finite element method for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations

We introduce a second order in time modified Lagrange--Galerkin (MLG) method for the time dependent incompressible Navier--Stokes equations. The main ingredient of the new method is the scheme proposed to calculate in a more efficient manner the Galerkin projection of the functions transported along the characteristic curves of the transport operator. We present error estimates for velocity and pressure in the framework of mixed finite elements when either the mini-element or the $P2/P1$ Taylor--Hood element are used.

Non-Maxwellian electron distributions in time-dependent simulations of low-Z materials illuminated by a high-intensity X-ray laser

The interaction of high intensity X-ray lasers with matter is modeled. A collisional-radiative timedependent module is implemented to study radiation transport in matter from ultrashort and ultraintense X-ray bursts. Inverse bremsstrahlung absorption by free electrons, electron conduction or hydrodynamic effects are not considered. The collisional-radiative system is coupled with the electron distribution evolution treated with a Fokker-Planck approach with additional inelastic terms. The model includes spontaneous emission, resonant photoabsorption, collisional excitation and de-excitation, radiative recombination, photoionization, collisional ionization, three-body recombination, autoionization and dielectronic capture. It is found that for high densities, but still below solid, collisions play an important role and thermalization times are not short enough to ensure a thermal electron distribution. At these densities Maxwellian and non-Maxwellian electron distribution models yield substantial differences in collisional rates, modifying the atomic population dynamics.