Growth, selection and appropriate contracts

We study a dynamic model where growth requires both long-term investment and the selection of talented managers. When ability is not ex-ante observable and contracts are incomplete, managerial selection imposes a cost, as managers facing the risk of being replaced tend to choose a sub-optimally low level of long-term investment. This generates a trade-off between selection and investment that has implications for the choice of contractual relationships. Our analysis shows that rigid long-term contracts sacrificing managerial selection may be optimal at early stages of economic development and when access to information is limited. As the economy grows, however, knowledge accumulation increases the return to talent and makes it optimal to adopt flexible contractual relationships, where managerial selection is implemented even at the cost of lower investment. Better institutions, in the form of a richer contracting environment and less severe informational frictions, speed up the transition to short-term relationships.

Missing value imputation in longitudinal measures of alcohol consumption

Attrition in longitudinal studies can lead to biased results. The study is motivated by the unexpected observation that alcohol consumption decreased despite increased availability, which may be due to sample attrition of heavy drinkers. Several imputation methods have been proposed, but rarely compared in longitudinal studies of alcohol consumption. The imputation of consumption level measurements is computationally particularly challenging due to alcohol consumption being a semi-continuous variable (dichotomous drinking status and continuous volume among drinkers), and the non-normality of data in the continuous part. Data come from a longitudinal study in Denmark with four waves (2003-2006) and 1771 individuals at baseline. Five techniques for missing data are compared: Last value carried forward (LVCF) was used as a single, and Hotdeck, Heckman modelling, multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE), and a Bayesian approach as multiple imputation methods. Predictive mean matching was used to account for non-normality, where instead of imputing regression estimates, "real" observed values from similar cases are imputed. Methods were also compared by means of a simulated dataset. The simulation showed that the Bayesian approach yielded the most unbiased estimates for imputation. The finding of no increase in consumption levels despite a higher availability remained unaltered. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inducible gene expression in fetal thymic epithelium: A new BAC transgenic model.

The thymus is the site of T cell development. Several stromal and hematopoietic cell types are necessary for the proper function of thymic selection and eventually peripheral immunity. Thymic epithelial cells (TECs) are essential for T cell lineage commitment, expansion, and maturation in the thymus. We were interested in developing an in vivo model in which exogenous gene expression could be transiently induced in embryonic TEC (Tet-On system). To this end, we have generated a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) transgenic mouse line in which the reverse tetracycline-dependent transactivator (rtTA) is expressed under the control of the Foxn1 promoter, a transcriptional factor indispensable for TEC development. To analyze the expression pattern and efficiency of this novel mouse model, we crossed the Foxn1-rtTA founder with a Tet-Responsive Element (TRE)-LacZ GFP mouse reporter to obtain a double transgenic mouse. In the presence of doxycycline, rtTA can interact with TRE and induce the expression of GFP and LacZ. In this double transgenic mouse, we observed that GFP expression was high, inducible and limited to TEC in fetal thymus. In contrast, in adult thymus, when TEC development and maturation is completed, GFP was barely detectable. Therefore, Foxn1-rtTA represents a new and efficient transgenic mouse model to induce genes of interest specifically in fetal thymic epithelium. genesis 51:717-724. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

The robustness of the weak selection approximation for the evolution of altruism against strong selection.

The weak selection approximation of population genetics has made possible the analysis of social evolution under a considerable variety of biological scenarios. Despite its extensive usage, the accuracy of weak selection in predicting the emergence of altruism under limited dispersal when selection intensity increases remains unclear. Here, we derive the condition for the spread of an altruistic mutant in the infinite island model of dispersal under a Moran reproductive process and arbitrary strength of selection. The simplicity of the model allows us to compare weak and strong selection regimes analytically. Our results demonstrate that the weak selection approximation is robust to moderate increases in selection intensity and therefore provides a good approximation to understand the invasion of altruism in spatially structured population. In particular, we find that the weak selection approximation is excellent even if selection is very strong, when either migration is much stronger than selection or when patches are large. Importantly, we emphasize that the weak selection approximation provides the ideal condition for the invasion of altruism, and increasing selection intensity will impede the emergence of altruism. We discuss that this should also hold for more complicated life cycles and for culturally transmitted altruism. Using the weak selection approximation is therefore unlikely to miss out on any demographic scenario that lead to the evolution of altruism under limited dispersal.

Evidence for an episodic model of protein sequence evolution.

The evolution of protein function appears to involve alternating periods of conservative evolution and of relatively rapid change. Evidence for such episodic evolution, consistent with some theoretical expectations, comes from the application of increasingly sophisticated models of evolution to large sequence datasets. We present here some of the recent methods to detect functional shifts, using amino acid or codon models. Both provide evidence for punctual shifts in patterns of amino acid conservation, including the fixation of key changes by positive selection. Although a link to gene duplication, a presumed source of functional changes, has been difficult to establish, this episodic model appears to apply to a wide variety of proteins and organisms.

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Electoral competition through issue selection

Politics must tackle multiple issues at once. In a first-best world, political competition constrains parties to prioritize issues according to the voters' true concerns. In the real world, the opposite also happens: parties manipulate voter priorities by emphasizing issues selectively during the political campaign. This phenomenon, known as priming, should allow parties to pay less attention to the issues that they intend to mute. We develop a model of endogenous issue ownership in which two vote-seeking parties (i) invest to attract voters with "better" policy proposals and (ii) choose a communication campaign to focus voter attention on specific issues. We identify novel feedbacks between communication and investment. In particular, we find that stronger priming effects can backfire by constraining parties to invest more resources in all issues, including the ones they would otherwise intend to mute. We also identify under which conditions parties prefer to focus on their "historical issues" or to engage in issue stealing. Typically, the latter happens when priming effects are strong, and historical reputations differentiates parties less.

Power and selection of contract terms: The case from the Brazilian orange juice sector

ABSTRACT We propose a model to explain how contract terms are selected in the presence of a form of economic power: contract power. The orange juice sector is used to illustrate an analysis that demonstrates the effects of contract power on the economic organization of the sector. We define contract power as the ability to exploit contractual gaps or failures of contractual provisions, which are strategically left incomplete. Empirical evidence from content analysis of antitrust documents supports the logic of contract power in the orange juice sector in three forms: avoiding changes to payment methods from weight to solid contents (quality); using information asymmetries to manipulate indexes that calculate the formula of orange prices; and deliberately harvesting oranges late in order to dehydrate the fruit, which consequently reduces weight and price. The paper contributes to understanding the selection of contract terms and the debate about how antitrust offices can deal with this issue.

A metapopulation model for the introgression from genetically modified plants into their wild relatives

Most models on introgression from genetically modified (GM) plants have focused on small spatial scales, modelling gene flow from a field containing GM plants into a single adjacent population of a wild relative. Here, we present a model to study the effect of introgression from multiple plantations into the whole metapopulation of the wild relative. The most important result of the model is that even very low levels of introgression and selection can lead to a high probability that the transgene goes to fixation in the metapopulation. Furthermore, the overall frequency of the transgene in the metapopulation, after a certain number of generations of introgression, depends on the population dynamics. If there is a high rate of migration or a high rate of population turnover, the overall transgene frequency is much higher than with lower rates. However, under an island model of population structure, this increased frequency has only a very small effect on the probability of fixation of the transgene. Considering these results, studies on the potential ecological risks of introgression from GM plants should look not only at the rate of introgression and selection acting on the transgene, but also at the metapopulation dynamics of the wild relative.

A generalized mechanistic codon model.

Models of codon evolution have attracted particular interest because of their unique capabilities to detect selection forces and their high fit when applied to sequence evolution. We described here a novel approach for modeling codon evolution, which is based on Kronecker product of matrices. The 61 × 61 codon substitution rate matrix is created using Kronecker product of three 4 × 4 nucleotide substitution matrices, the equilibrium frequency of codons, and the selection rate parameter. The entities of the nucleotide substitution matrices and selection rate are considered as parameters of the model, which are optimized by maximum likelihood. Our fully mechanistic model allows the instantaneous substitution matrix between codons to be fully estimated with only 19 parameters instead of 3,721, by using the biological interdependence existing between positions within codons. We illustrate the properties of our models using computer simulations and assessed its relevance by comparing the AICc measures of our model and other models of codon evolution on simulations and a large range of empirical data sets. We show that our model fits most biological data better compared with the current codon models. Furthermore, the parameters in our model can be interpreted in a similar way as the exchangeability rates found in empirical codon models.

The evolution of XY recombination: sexually antagonistic selection versus deleterious mutation load.

Recombination arrest between X and Y chromosomes, driven by sexually antagonistic genes, is expected to induce their progressive differentiation. However, in contrast to birds and mammals (which display the predicted pattern), most cold-blooded vertebrates have homomorphic sex chromosomes. Two main hypotheses have been proposed to account for this, namely high turnover rates of sex-determining systems and occasional XY recombination. Using individual-based simulations, we formalize the evolution of XY recombination (here mediated by sex reversal; the "fountain-of-youth" model) under the contrasting forces of sexually antagonistic selection and deleterious mutations. The shift between the domains of elimination and accumulation occurs at much lower selection coefficients for the Y than for the X. In the absence of dosage compensation, mildly deleterious mutations accumulating on the Y depress male fitness, thereby providing incentives for XY recombination. Under our settings, this occurs via "demasculinization" of the Y, allowing recombination in XY (sex-reversed) females. As we also show, this generates a conflict with the X, which coevolves to oppose sex reversal. The resulting rare events of XY sex reversal are enough to purge the Y from its load of deleterious mutations. Our results support the "fountain of youth" as a plausible mechanism to account for the maintenance of sex-chromosome homomorphy.

Size-dependent predation by Dugesia lugubris (Turbellaria) on Physa acuta (Gastropoda): experiments and model

1. We investigated experimentally predation by the flatworm Dugesia lugubris on the snail Physa acuta in relation to predator body length and to prey morphology [shell length (SL) and aperture width (AW)]. 2. SL and AW correlate strongly in the field, but display significant and independent variance among populations. In the laboratory, predation by Dugesia resulted in large and significant selection differentials on both SL and AW. Analysis of partial effects suggests that selection on AW was indirect, and mediated through its strong correlation with SL. 3. The probability P(ij) for a snail of size category i (SL) to be preyed upon by a flatworm of size category j was fitted with a Poisson-probability distribution, the mean of which increased linearly with predator size (i). Despite the low number of parameters, the fit was excellent (r2 = 0.96). We offer brief biological interpretations of this relationship with reference to optimal foraging theory. 4. The largest size class of Dugesia (>2 cm) did not prey on snails larger than 7 mm shell length. This size threshold might offer Physa a refuge against flatworm predation and thereby allow coexistence in the field. 5. Our results are further discussed with respect to previous field and laboratory observations on P acuta life-history patterns, in particular its phenotypic variance in adult body size.

SlimCodeML: An Optimized Version of CodeML for the Branch-Site Model

CodeML (part of the PAML package) im- plements a maximum likelihood-based approach to de- tect positive selection on a specific branch of a given phylogenetic tree. While CodeML is widely used, it is very compute-intensive. We present SlimCodeML, an optimized version of CodeML for the branch-site model. Our performance analysis shows that SlimCodeML substantially outperforms CodeML (up to 9.38 times faster), especially for large-scale genomic analyses.

Endogenous Credit Cycles and Financial Dampening in an Adverse Selection Economy

We propose an adverse selection framework in which the financial sector has a dual role. It amplifies or dampens exogenous shocks and also generates endogenous fluctuations. We fully characterize constrained optimal contracts in a setting in which entrepreneurs need to borrow and are privately informed about the quality of their projects. Our characterization is novel in analyzing pooling and separating allocations in a context of multi-dimensional screening: specifically, the amounts of investment undertaken and of entrepreneurial net worth are used to screen projects. We then embed these results in a dynamic competitive economy. First, we show how endogenous regime switches in financial contracts may generate fluctuations in an economy that exhibits no dynamics under full information. Unlike previous models of endogenous cycles, our result does not rely on entrepreneurial net worth being counter-cyclical or inconsequential for determining investment. Secondly, the model shows the different implications of adverse selection as opposed to pure moral hazard. In particular, and contrary to standard results in the macroeconomic literature, the financial system may dampen exogenous shocks in the presence of adverse selection.