Radiolarian assemblages of the late Neogene North Pacific

Radiolarian census and abundance data were collected from three deep-sea cores drilled by the Ocean Drilling Program Sites 884, 887 and 1151 to investigate patterns of ecologic changes in space and time during the last 16 million years for the mid-latitude to subarctic North Pacific. High concentrations of radiolarians occurred between 9.0 and 2.7 Ma. Radiolarian species richness was highest in the early middle Miocene at each site and gradually decreased up to about 7 Ma, coinciding with a well-established global cooling trend. A degree of overlap index calculated for radiolarian assemblages revealed 11 faunal change events, of which 8 corresponded to global cooling events and expansions of polar ice sheets. Three of the faunal change events were observed within the peak of radiolarian accumulation rate and were ascribed to changes in primary productivity in the North Pacific rather than global climatic changes. Our assemblage analyses revealed that north-south differentiation in radiolarian assemblages in the northwestern Pacific has existed since 16 Ma and became more distinct via major steps at 6.8 Ma and 2.7 Ma, coinciding with major glaciation events, and that east-west faunal contrasts in the subarctic region became obvious beginning at 11.7 Ma and changed to a different mode around 6.8 Ma. The observed east-west faunal differences possibly reflect east to west climate differences that were characterized by cooler temperatures in the east than the west during the late Miocene (11.7-6.8 Ma) and then by the opposite temperature trend (6.8 Ma-Recent). A severe glaciation at 2.7 Ma played a large role, particularly in temporal changes in radiolarian accumulation rate and assemblage composition.

Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on an intertidal meiobenthic community

In the near future, the marine environment is likely to be subjected to simultaneous increases in temperature and decreased pH. The potential effects of these changes on intertidal, meiofaunal assemblages were investigated using a mesocosm experiment. Artificial Substrate Units containing meiofauna from the extreme low intertidal zone were exposed for 60 days to eight experimental treatments (four replicates for each treatment) comprising four pH levels: 8.0 (ambient control), 7.7 & 7.3 (predicted changes associated with ocean acidification), and 6.7 (CO2 point-source leakage from geological storage), crossed with two temperatures: 12 °C (ambient control) and 16 °C (predicted). Community structure, measured using major meiofauna taxa was significantly affected by pH and temperature. Copepods and copepodites showed the greatest decline in abundance in response to low pH and elevated temperature. Nematodes increased in abundance in response to low pH and temperature rise, possibly caused by decreased predation and competition for food owing to the declining macrofauna density. Nematode species composition changed significantly between the different treatments, and was affected by both seawater acidification and warming. Estimated nematode species diversity, species evenness, and the maturity index, were substantially lower at 16 °C, whereas trophic diversity was slightly higher at 16 °C except at pH 6.7. This study has demonstrated that the combination of elevated levels of CO2 and ocean warming may have substantial effects on structural and functional characteristics of meiofaunal and nematode communities, and that single stressor experiments are unlikely to encompass the complexity of abiotic and biotic interactions. At the same time, ecological interactions may lead to complex community responses to pH and temperature changes in the interstitial environment.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction of sediment core GeoB6518-1

Past hydrological changes in Africa have been linked to various climatic processes, depending on region and timescale. Long-term precipitation changes in the regions of northern and southern Africa influenced by the monsoons are thought to have been governed by precessional variations in summer insolation (Kutzbach and Liu, 1997, doi:10.1126/science.278.5337.440; Partridge et al., 1997, doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(97)00005-X). Conversely, short-term precipitation changes in the northern African tropics have been linked to North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, affecting the northward extension of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and its associated rainbelt (Hastenrath, 1990, doi:10.1002/joc.3370100504, Street-Perrott and Perrott, 1990, doi:10.1038/343607a0). Our knowledge of large-scale hydrological changes in equatorial Africa and their forcing factors is, however, limited (Gasse, 2000, doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00061-X). Here we analyse the isotopic composition of terrigenous plant lipids, extracted from a marine sediment core close to the Congo River mouth, in order to reconstruct past central African rainfall variations and compare this record to sea surface temperature changes in the South Atlantic Ocean. We find that central African precipitation during the past 20,000 years was mainly controlled by the difference in sea surface temperatures between the tropics and subtropics of the South Atlantic Ocean, whereas we find no evidence that changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone had a significant influence on the overall moisture availability in central Africa. We conclude that changes in ocean circulation, and hence sea surface temperature patterns, were important in modulating atmospheric moisture transport onto the central African continent.

High resolution benthic stable-isotope records from ODP Site 1263 and 1262

Recent studies have shown that the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) was preceded by a series of short-lived global warming events, known as hyperthermals. Here we present high-resolution benthic stable carbon and oxygen isotope records from ODP Sites 1262 and 1263 (Walvis Ridge, SE Atlantic) between ~54 and ~52 million years ago, tightly constraining the character, timing, and magnitude of six prominent hyperthermal events. These events, which include Eocene Thermal Maximum (ETM) 2 and 3, are studied in relation to orbital forcing and long-term trends. Our findings reveal an almost linear relationship between d13C and d18O for all these hyperthermals, indicating that the eccentricity-paced co-variance between deep-sea temperature changes and extreme perturbations in the exogenic carbon pool persisted during these events towards the onset of the EECO, in accord with previous observations for the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and ETM2. The covariance of d13C and d18O during H2 and I2, which are the second pulses of the "paired" hyperthermal events ETM2-H2 and I1-I2, deviates with respect to the other events. We hypothesize that this could relate to a relatively higher contribution of an isotopically heavier source of carbon, such as peat or permafrost, and/or to climate feedbacks/local changes in circulation. Finally, the d18O records of the two sites show a systematic offset with on average 0.2 per mil heavier values for the shallower Site 1263, which we link to a slightly heavier isotopic composition of the intermediate water mass reaching the northeastern flank of the Walvis Ridge compared to that of the deeper northwestern water mass at Site 1262.

Oliogocene to Pleistocene benthic foraminifera in ODP Leg 121 sites

Oligocene to Pleistocene bathyal benthic foraminifers at Broken Ridge (Site 754) and Ninetyeast Ridge (Site 756), eastern Indian Ocean, were investigated for then- stratigraphic distribution and their response to paleoceanographic changes. Q-mode factor analysis was applied to relative abundance data of the most abundant benthic foraminifers. At Site 754, seven varimax assemblages were recognized from the upper Oligocene to the Pleistocene: the Gyroidina orbicularis-Rectuvigerina striata Assemblage in the uppermost Oligocene; the Lenticulina spp. Assemblage in the upper Oligocene to lower Miocene, and in lower Miocene to lowermost middle Miocene; the Burseolina cf. pacifica-Cibicidoides mundulus Assemblage in the lower Miocene; the Planulina wuellerstorfi Assemblage in the upper middle Miocene; the Globocassidulina spp. Assemblage in the upper Miocene; the Gavelinopsis lobatulus-Uvigerina proboscidea Assemblage in the Pliocene; and the Ehrenbergina spp. Assemblage in the Pleistocene. The major faunal changes are complex, but exist between the Lenticulina spp. Assemblage and the P. wuellerstorfi Assemblage at ~13.8 Ma, and between the Ehrenbergina spp. Assemblage and the G. lobatulus Assemblage at ~5 Ma. The development of the P. wuellerstorfi and Globocassidulina spp. Assemblages after 13.8 Ma is correlated with the decrease in temperature of the intermediate waters of the ocean, in turn related to Antarctic glacial expansion. The faunal changes at ~5 Ma are related to the development of low oxygen intermediate water, formed in the presence of a strong thermocline. At Site 756, six varimax assemblages are distributed as follows: the Cibicidoides cf. mundulus-Oridorsalis umbonatus Assemblage in the lower Oligocene; the Epistominella umbonifera-Cibicidoides mundulus Assemblage from the upper Oligocene to the lower Miocene; the Cibicidoides mundulus-Burseolinapacifica Assemblage from lower Miocene to the lower middle Miocene; the Globocassidulina spp. Assemblage from the upper lower Miocene to the Pliocene; the Uvigerina proboscidea Assemblage in the upper Miocene and the Pliocene; and the Globocassidulina sp. D Assemblage in the Pliocene. The main faunal change at this site is between the E. umbonifera Assemblage and the Globocassidulina spp. Assemblage, at ~17.1 Ma. The timing of this faunal change is coeval with faunal changes in the North Atlantic and the Pacific. The change is related to a change in bottom water characteristics caused by an increased influence of carbonate corrosive water from the Antarctic source region, and a change in surface productivity. A low oxygen event at Site 756, which started at about 7.3 Ma, occurred about 2.3 m.y. before that at Site 754. The different response to global paleoceanographic changes is not yet explained, but may be due to the difference of marine topography and the degree of upwelling

Stable isotope analysis of Porites coral core from the Andaman Islands

North Atlantic climate variations are reflected in sedimentary records from the northern Indian Ocean in which two basins, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, are strongly affected by the monsoon. Contrary to the Bay of Bengal the Arabian Sea plays an important role in the global marine nitrogen cycle. In its mid-water oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) bioavailable fixed nitrogen is reduced to nitrogen gas (NO3- - > N2), whereas oxygen concentrations are slightly above the threshold of nitrate reduction in the OMZ of the Bay of Bengal. A coral colony (Porites lutea) growing south of Port Blair on the Andaman Islands in the Bay of Bengal was studied for its response to changes in the monsoon system and its link to temperature changes in the North Atlantic Ocean, between 1975 and 2006. Its linear extension rates, d13C and d18O values measured within the coral skeleton reveal a strong seasonality, which seems to be caused by the monsoon-driven reversal of the surface ocean circulation. The sampling site appears to be influenced by low salinity Bay of Bengal Water during the NE monsoon (boreal winter) and by the high salinity Arabian Sea Water during the SW monsoon in summer. The high salinity Arabian Sea Water circulates along with the Summer Monsoon Current (S-MC) from the Arabia Sea into the Bay of Bengal. Decreasing d18O and reconstructed salinity values correlate to the increasing SSTs in the North Atlantic Ocean indicating a reduced influence of the S-MC at the sampling site in the course of northern hemispheric warming. During such periods oxygen-depletion became stronger in the OMZ of the Arabian Sea as indicated by the sedimentary records. A reduced propagation of oxygen-depleted high salinity Arabian Sea Water into the Bay of Bengal could be a mechanism maintaining oxygen concentration above the threshold of nitrate reduction in the OMZ of the Bay of Bengal in times of global warming.

Revised calibration of the MBT-CBT paleotemperature proxy

The MBT-CBT proxy for the reconstruction of paleotemperatures and past soil pH is based on the distribution of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) membrane lipids. The Methylation of Branched Tetraether (MBT) and the Cyclisation of Branched Tetraether (CBT) indices were developed to quantify these distributions, and significant empirical relations between these indices and annual mean air temperature (MAT) and/or soil pH were found in a large data set of soils. In this study, we extended this soil dataset to 278 globally distributed surface soils. Of these soils, 26% contains all nine brGDGTs, while in 63% of the soils the seven most common brGDGTs were detected, and the latter were selected for calibration purposes. This resulted in new transfer functions for the reconstruction of pH based on the CBT index: pH = 7.90-1.97 × CBT (r**2 = 0.70; RMSE = 0.8; n = 176), as well as for MAT based on the CBT index and methylation index based on the seven most abundant GDGTs (defined as MBT'): MAT = 0.81-5.67 × CBT + 31.0 × MBT' (r**2 = 0.59; RMSE = 5.0 °C; n = 176). The new transfer function for MAT has a substantially lower correlation coefficient than the original equation (r**2 = 0.77). To investigate possible improvement of the correlation, we used our extended global surface soil dataset to statistically derive the indices that best describe the relations of brGDGT composition with MAT and soil pH. These new indices, however, resulted in only a relatively minor increase in correlation coefficients, while they cannot be explained straightforwardly by physiological mechanisms. The large scatter in the calibration cannot be fully explained by local factors or by seasonality, but MAT for soils from arid regions are generally substantially (up to 20 °C) underestimated, suggesting that absolute brGDGT-based temperature records for these areas should be interpreted with caution. The applicability of the new MBT'-CBT calibration function was tested using previously published MBT-CBT-derived paleotemperature records covering the last deglaciation in Central Africa and East Asia, the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The results show that trends remain similar in all records, but that absolute temperature estimates and the amplitude of temperature changes are lower for most records, and generally in better agreement with independent proxy data.

Middle to late Miocene oxygen isotope stratigraphy of ODP site 1085 (SE Atlantic): new constrains on Miocene climate variability and sea-level fluctuations

The middle Miocene delta18O increase represents a fundamental change in earth's climate system due to a major expansion and permanent establishment of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet accompanied by some effect of deepwater cooling. The long-term cooling trend in the middle to late Miocene was superimposed by several punctuated periods of glaciations (Mi-Events) characterized by oxygen isotopic shifts that have been related to the waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice-sheet and bottom water cooling. Here, we present a high-resolution benthic stable oxygen isotope record from ODP Site 1085 located at the southwestern African continental margin that provides a detailed chronology for the middle to late Miocene (13.9-7.3 Ma) climate transition in the eastern South Atlantic. A composite Fe intensity record obtained by XRF core scanning ODP Sites 1085 and 1087 was used to construct an astronomically calibrated chronology based on orbital tuning. The oxygen isotope data exhibit four distinct delta18O excursions, which have astronomical ages of 13.8, 13.2, 11.7, and 10.4 Ma and correspond to the Mi3, Mi4, Mi5, and Mi6 events. A global climate record was extracted from the oxygen isotopic composition. Both long- and short-term variabilities in the climate record are discussed in terms of sea-level and deep-water temperature changes. The oxygen isotope data support a causal link between sequence boundaries traced from the shelf and glacioeustatic changes due to ice-sheet growth. Spectral analysis of the benthic delta18O record shows strong power in the 400-kyr and 100-kyr bands documenting a paleoceanographic response to eccentricity-modulated variations in precession. A spectral peak around 180-kyr might be related to the asymmetry of the obliquity cycle indicating that the response of the dominantly unipolar Antarctic ice-sheet to obliquityinduced variations probably controlled the middle to late Miocene climate system. Maxima in the delta18O record, interpreted as glacial periods, correspond to minima in 100-kyr eccentricity cycle and minima in the 174-kyr obliquity modulation. Strong middle to late Miocene glacial events are associated with 400-kyr eccentricity minima and obliquity modulation minima. Thus, fluctuations in the amplitude of obliquity and eccentricity seem to be the driving force for the middle to late Miocene climate variability.

Methylation index of Branched Tetraethers (MBT) and Cyclization ratio of Branched Tetraethers (CBT), annual mean air temperature and soil pH of sediment core GeoB6518-1 in the Congo River basin

We analyzed the distribution of branched tetraether membrane lipids derived from soil bacteria in a marine sediment record that was recovered close to the Congo River outflow, and the results enabled us to reconstruct large-scale continental temperature changes in tropical Africa that span the past 25,000 years. Tropical African temperatures gradually increased from ~21° to 25°C over the last deglaciation, which is a larger warming than estimated for the tropical Atlantic Ocean. A direct comparison with sea-surface temperature estimates from the same core revealed that the land-sea temperature difference was, through the thermal pressure gradient, an important control on central African precipitation patterns.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, nutrients and calcification during experiments with cold-water scleractinian corals (Lophelia pertusa, Madrepora oculata and Desmophyllum dianthus), 2011

Global environmental changes, including ocean acidification, have been identified as a major threat to scleractinian corals. General predictions are that ocean acidification will be detrimental to reef growth and that 40 to more than 80 per cent of present-day reefs will decline during the next 50 years. Cold-water corals (CWCs) are thought to be strongly affected by changes in ocean acidification owing to their distribution in deep and/or cold waters, which naturally exhibit a CaCO3 saturation state lower than in shallow/warm waters. Calcification was measured in three species of Mediterranean cold-water scleractinian corals (Lophelia pertusa, Madrepora oculata and Desmophyllum dianthus) on-board research vessels and soon after collection. Incubations were performed in ambient sea water. The species M. oculata was additionally incubated in sea water reduced or enriched in CO2. At ambient conditions, calcification rates ranged between -0.01 and 0.23% d-1. Calcification rates of M. oculata under variable partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) were the same for ambient and elevated pCO2 (404 and 867 µatm) with 0.06 ± 0.06% d-1, while calcification was 0.12 ± 0.06% d-1 when pCO2 was reduced to its pre-industrial level (285 µatm). This suggests that present-day CWC calcification in the Mediterranean Sea has already drastically declined (by 50%) as a consequence of anthropogenic-induced ocean acidification.

Sensitivity of a distributed temperature-radiation index melt model based on AWS observations and surface energy balance fluxes, Hurd Peninsula glaciers, Livingston Island, Antarctica

We use an automatic weather station and surface mass balance dataset spanning four melt seasons collected on Hurd Peninsula Glaciers, South Shetland Islands, to investigate the point surface energy balance, to determine the absolute and relative contribution of the various energy fluxes acting on the glacier surface and to estimate the sensitivity of melt to ambient temperature changes. Long-wave incoming radiation is the main energy source for melt, while short-wave radiation is the most important flux controlling the variation of both seasonal and daily mean surface energy balance. Short-wave and long-wave radiation fluxes do, in general, balance each other, resulting in a high correspondence between daily mean net radiation flux and available melt energy flux. We calibrate a distributed melt model driven by air temperature and an expression for the incoming short-wave radiation. The model is calibrated with the data from one of the melt seasons and validated with the data of the three remaining seasons. The model results deviate at most 140 mm w.e. from the corresponding observations using the glaciological method. The model is very sensitive to changes in ambient temperature: a 0.5 ◦ C increase results in 56 % higher melt rates.

Assessing the dynamic behavior of wsn motes and rfid semi-passive tags for temperature monitoring.

A notorious advantage of wireless transmission is a significant reduction and simplification in wiring and harness. There are a lot of applications of wireless systems, but in many occasions sensor nodes require a specific housing to protect the electronics from hush environmental conditions. Nowadays the information is scarce and nonspecific on the dynamic behaviour of WSN and RFID. Therefore the purpose of this study is to evaluate the dynamic behaviour of the sensors. A series of trials were designed and performed covering temperature steps between cold room (5 °C), room temperature (23 °C) and heated environment (35 °C). As sensor nodes: three Crossbow motes, a surface mounted Nlaza module (with sensor Sensirion located on the motherboard), an aerial mounted Nlaza where the Sensirion sensor stayed at the end of a cable), and four tags RFID Turbo Tag (T700 model with and without housing), and 702-B (with and without housing). To assess the dynamic behaviour a first order response approach is used and fitted with dedicated optimization tools programmed in Matlab that allow extracting the time response (?) and corresponding determination coefficient (r2) with regard to experimental data. The shorter response time (20.9 s) is found for the uncoated T 700 tag which encapsulated version provides a significantly higher response (107.2 s). The highest ? corresponds to the Crossbow modules (144.4 s), followed by the surface mounted Nlaza module (288.1 s), while the module with aerial mounted sensor gives a response certainly close above to the T700 without coating (42.8 s). As a conclusion, the dynamic response of temperature sensors within wireless and RFID nodes is dramatically influenced by the way they are housed (to protect them from the environment) as well as by the heat released by the node electronics itself; its characterization is basic to allow monitoring of high rate temperature changes and to certify the cold chain. Besides the time to rise and to recover is significantly different being mostly higher for the latter than for the former.

Mejora de los modelos térmicos de las presas bóveda en explotación : aplicación al análisis del efecto del cambio climático

Las cargas de origen térmico causadas por las acciones medioambientales generan esfuerzos apreciables en estructuras hiperestáticas masivas, como es el caso de las presas bóvedas. Ciertas investigaciones apuntan que la variación de la temperatura ambiental es la segunda causa de reparaciones en las presas del hormigón en servicio. Del mismo modo, es una causa de fisuración en un porcentaje apreciable de casos. Las presas son infraestructuras singulares por sus dimensiones, su vida útil, su impacto sobre el territorio y por el riesgo que implica su presencia. La evaluación de ese riesgo requiere, entre otras herramientas, de modelos matemáticos de predicción del comportamiento. Los modelos han de reproducir la realidad del modo más fidedigno posible. Además, en un escenario de posible cambio climático en el que se prevé un aumento de las temperaturas medias, la sociedad ha de conocer cuál será el comportamiento estructural de las infraestructuras sensibles en los futuros escenarios climáticos. No obstante, existen escasos estudios enfocados a determinar el campo de temperaturas de las presas de hormigón. Así, en esta investigación se han mejorado los modelos de cálculo térmico existentes con la incorporación de nuevos fenómenos físicos de transferencia de calor entre la estructura y el medio ambiente que la rodea. También se han propuesto nuevas metodologías más eficientes para cuantificar otros mecanismos de transferencia de calor. La nueva metodología se ha aplicado a un caso de estudio donde se disponía de un amplio registro de temperaturas de su hormigón. Se ha comprobado la calidad de las predicciones realizadas por los diversos modelos térmicos en el caso piloto. También se han comparado los resultados de los diversos modelos entre sí. Finalmente, se ha determinado las consecuencias de las predicciones de las temperaturas por algunos de los modelos térmicos sobre la respuesta estructural del caso de estudio. Los modelos térmicos se han empleado para caracterizar térmicamente las presas bóveda. Se ha estudiado el efecto de ciertas variables atmosféricas y determinados aspectos geométricos de las presas sobre su respuesta térmica. También se ha propuesto una metodología para evaluar la respuesta térmica y estructural de las infraestructuras frente a los posibles cambios meteorológicos inducidos por el cambio climático. La metodología se ha aplicado a un caso de estudio, una presa bóveda, y se ha obtenido su futura respuesta térmica y estructural frente a diversos escenarios climáticos. Frente a este posible cambio de las variables meteorológicas, se han detallado diversas medidas de adaptación y se ha propuesto una modificación de la normativa española de proyecto de presas en el punto acerca del cálculo de la distribución de temperaturas de diseño. Finalmente, se han extraído una serie de conclusiones y se han sugerido posibles futuras líneas de investigación para ampliar el conocimiento del fenómeno de la distribución de temperaturas en el interior de las presas y las consecuencias sobre su respuesta estructural. También se han propuesto futuras investigaciones para desarrollar nuevos procedimiento para definir las cargas térmicas de diseño, así como posibles medidas de adaptación frente al cambio climático. Thermal loads produced by external temperature variations may cause stresses in massive hyperstatic structures, such as arch dams. External temperature changes are pointed out as the second most major repairs in dams during operation. Moreover, cracking is caused by thermal loads in a quite number of cases. Dams are unique infrastructures given their dimensions, lifetime, spatial impacts and the risks involve by their presence. The risks are assessed by means of mathematical models which compute the behavior of the structure. The behavior has to be reproduced as reliable as possible. Moreover, since mean temperature on Earth is expected to increase, society has to know the structural behavior of sensitive structures to climate change. However, few studies have addressed the assessment of the thermal field in concrete dams. Thermal models are improved in this research. New heat transfer phenomena have been accounted for. Moreover, new and more efficient methodologies for computing other heat transfer phenomena have been proposed. The methodology has been applied to a case study where observations from thermometers embedded in the concrete were available. Recorded data were predicted by several thermal models and the quality of the predictions was assessed. Furthermore, predictions were compared between them. Finally, the consequences on the stress calculations were analyzed. Thermal models have been used to characterize arch dams from a thermal point of view. The effect of some meteorological and geometrical variables on the thermal response of the dam has been analyzed. Moreover, a methodology for assessing the impacts of global warming on the thermal and structural behavior of infrastructures has been proposed. The methodology was applied to a case study, an arch dam, and its thermal and structural response to several future climatic scenarios was computed. In addition, several adaptation strategies has been outlined and a new formulation for computing design thermal loads in concrete dams has been proposed. Finally, some conclusions have been reported and some future research works have been outlined. Future research works will increase the knowledge of the concrete thermal field and its consequences on the structural response of the infrastructures. Moreover, research works will develope a new procedure for computing the design thermal loads and will study some adaptation strategies against the climate change.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.