A construção da defesa da concorrência no MERCOSUL: uma perspectiva construtivista - cooperação e interesses nas relações internacionais

Pós-graduação em Relações Internacionais (UNESP - UNICAMP - PUC-SP) - FFC

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

Implementation of the Cairo Programme of Action in the Caribbean (1994-2013): Evaluating Progress and Renewing Commitment

Includes bibliography.

Economic survey of the Caribbean 2008-2009

This survey provides an overview of the economic performance of countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) for the year 2008 and their outlook for 2009. The report comprises three chapters. The first provides a regional comparative analysis of the main macroeconomic variables, namely GDP growth, inflation, fiscal and external accounts, as well as fiscal, monetary and other policies, particularly those specifically devised to cope with the ongoing global economic crisis. The second chapter deals with two topics relevant for economic development in the region: economic growth and small and medium enterprises development from an analytical and empirical perspective. The last chapter presents country briefs of the seven most developed countries (MDCs) in the Caribbean – Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago – together with a subregional assessment of the eight member countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU).

Uma história movida a álcool: impactos ambientais no contexto canavieiro paulista (1975 a 2003)

Pós-graduação em História - FCLAS

O setor de venture capital, as startups e o empreendedorismo em Israel, nos anos recentes

Some of the factors that help to explain the Israeli success case on promoting high-tech start-ups backed by venture capital funds can be found in the risk-taking culture of the country, the vast technological know-how associated with the huge military development, the high offer of human intellectual capital due to the immigration processes, and finally also the FDI inflows, mainly from the United States. Even though, these factors would not have the same effects in the economy unless the right structures were founded by the public-private sectors partnerships for the high-tech industry development and the adaptation of the investment industry surpasses two of the deepest global financial crisis: the dot-com bubble in the 2000’s and the subprime in 2008

Interpretação da crise financeira mundial sob a perspectiva de David Harvey

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Hidden Effects of Chronic Tuberculosis in African Buffalo

Infectious diseases can bring about population declines and local host extinctions, contributing significantly to the global biodiversity crisis. Nonetheless, studies measuring population-level effects of pathogens in wild host populations are rare, and taxonomically biased toward avian hosts and macroparasitic infections. We investigated the effects of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by the bacterial pathogen Mycobacterium bovis, on African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) at Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa. We tested 1180 buffalo for bTB infection between May 2000 and November 2001. Most infections were mild, confirming the chronic nature of the disease in buffalo. However, our data indicate that bTB affects both adult survival and fecundity. Using an age-structured population model, we demonstrate that the pathogen can reduce population growth rate drastically; yet its effects appear difficult to detect at the population level: bTB causes no conspicuous mass mortalities or fast population declines, nor does it alter host-population age structure significantly. Our models suggest that this syndrome—low detectability coupled with severe impacts on population growth rate and, therefore, resilience—may be characteristic of chronic diseases in large mammals.

L’alternativa democratica: Umberto Zanotti Bianco, il sud Italia e il Mediterraneo tra grande guerra e fascismo.

L’impegno civile di Umberto Zanotti Bianco (1889-1963) intrecciandosi ai principali eventi storici della prima metà del Novecento ha concorso a fare del Mezzogiorno d’Italia un laboratorio per una concreta emancipazione delle fasce sociali più umili. In queste coordinate l’azione di Zanotti Bianco è emblematica: supera la visione conservatrice di un sud incapace di fare emergere saperi e capacità organizzative mirando invece attraverso chiari, determinati e moderni progetti di riforma a far crescere il lievito della consapevolezza e della capacità di governarsi. Si può legittimamente sostenere che la complessa azione di Zanotti Bianco, pur partendo dalle migliori e più avanzate forme del pensiero meridionalista di inizio secolo, nella pratica tende a superare anche queste collocando la questione del Mezzogiorno d’Italia non solo nello scenario nazionale, tipico della fondamentale e già innovativa riflessione intorno al sud sviluppatasi da Villari a Salvemini, ma proietta le problematiche del meridione all’interno di un quadro europeo con una spiccata vocazione mediterranea. In sostanza i piani dell’intervento sociale, studiati e messi a punto inizialmente in Calabria e nelle regioni economicamente depresse del nostro Mezzogiorno, per Zanotti Bianco sembrano essere da modello anche per le più complesse questioni sociali di altri popoli del bacino del Mediterraneo i quali (come le popolazioni dell’Italia meridionale in quegli anni) apparivano deficitarii di strumenti per lo sviluppo economico, sociale, politico: è questa la tesi qui proposta.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Albania

The main objective of this thesis is to explore the short and long run causality patterns in the finance – growth nexus and finance-growth-trade nexus before and after the global financial crisis, in the case of Albania. To this end we use quarterly data on real GDP, 13 proxy measures for financial development and the trade openness indicator for the period 1998Q1 – 2013Q2 and 1998Q1-2008Q3. Causality patterns will be explored in a VAR-VECM framework. For this purpose we will proceed as follows: (i) testing for the integration order of the variables; (ii) cointegration analysis and (iii) performing Granger causality tests in a VAR-VECM framework. In the finance-growth nexus, empirical evidence suggests for a positive long run relationship between finance and economic growth, with causality running from financial development to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have not affected the causality direction in the finance and growth nexus, thus supporting the finance led growth hypothesis in the long run in the case of Albania. In the finance-growth-trade openness nexus, we found evidence for a positive long run relationship the variables, with causality direction depending on the proxy used for financial development. When the pre-crisis sample is considered, we find evidence for causality running from financial development and trade openness to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have affected somewhat the causality direction in the finance-growth-trade nexus, which has become sensible to the proxy used for financial development. On the short run, empirical evidence suggests for a clear unidirectional relationship between finance and growth, with causality mostly running from economic growth to financial development. When we consider the per-crisis sub sample results are mixed, depending on the proxy used for financial development. The same results are confirmed when trade openness is taken into account.

Understanding Recent Developments in the Turkish Labor Market: Empirical Essays with a Gender Focus

This dissertation comprises three essays on the Turkish labor market. The first essay characterizes the distinctive characteristics of the Turkish labor market with the aim of understanding the factors lying behind its long-standing poor performance relative to its European counterparts. The analysis is based on a cross-country comparison among selected European Union countries. Among all the indicators of labor market flexibility, non-wage cost rigidities are regarded as one of the most important factors in slowing down employment creation in Turkey. The second essay focuses on an employment subsidy policy which introduces a reduction in non-wage costs through social security premium incentives granted to women and young men. Exploiting a difference-in-difference-in differences strategy, I evaluate the effectiveness of this policy in creating employment for the target group. The results, net of the recent crisis effect, suggest that the policy accounts for a 1.4% to 1.6% increase in the probability of being hired for women aged 30 to 34 above men of the same age group in the periods shortly after the announcement of the policy. In the third essay of the dissertation, I analyze the labor supply response of married women to their husbands' job losses (AWE). I empirically test the hypothesis of added worker effect for the global economic crisis of 2008 by relying on the Turkey context. Identification is achieved by exploiting the exogenous variation in the output of male-dominated sectors hard-hit by the crisis and the gender-segmentation that characterizes the Turkish labor market. Findings based on the instrumental variable approach suggest that the added worker effect explains up to 64% of the observed increase in female labor force participation in Turkey. The size of the effect depends on how long it takes for wives to adjust their labor supply to their husbands' job losses.

Enti locali e società di capitali nella gestione di servizi pubblici locali e strumentali

La gestione di servizi pubblici locali e di servizi strumentali tramite società di capitali partecipate da enti locali viene esplorata in vista di una riconsiderazione generale del sistema all'interno del contesto socio-economico sviluppatosi negli anni successivi alla crisi economica mondiale dell'anno 2008.

Entwicklung einer Kryokonservierungsmethode für Spermien der Honigbiene, Apis mellifera

Die westliche Honigbiene (Apis mellifera) ist von großer ökologischer und ökonomischer Bedeutung. Seit Jahren zeichnen sich in Nordamerika sowie in manchen Teilen Europas rückläufige Bienenvölkerzahlen und eine abnehmende Artenvielfalt innerhalb der Bienenfamilie ab. Mittlerweile ist von einer globalen Bestäuberkrise die Rede und es wird verstärkt nach Möglichkeiten gesucht, um dieser Krise entgegenzuwirken. Eine Konservierung von Bienenspermien in flüssigem Stickstoff ohne Fruchtbarkeitsreduzierung würde die Bienenzucht revolutionieren und stark beschleunigen, da räumliche und zeitliche Restriktionen bei der Wahl des Bienenspermas wegfielen. Zudem wäre eine Möglichkeit zur Sicherung der genetischen Diversität geschaffen. Im Rahmen des hier vorgestellten Projektes wurde eine solche Methode erarbeitet. In umfangreichen Abkühl- und Einfrierversuchen konnte eine neue Konservierungstechnik entwickelt werden, bei der das Kryoprotektivum mittels Dialyse dem Bienensperma zugesetzt wird. Dieses Verfahren erhält die native Spermaform, in der die Spermien parallel und inaktiv in dicht gepackten Clustern vorliegen, und erzielt bisher unerreichte Besamungserfolge. So konnten durchschnittlich 1,25 Mio. Spermien in den Spermatheken besamter Königinnen gezählt werden und davon waren ungefähr 90% motil. Besonders vielversprechend ist jedoch, dass 79,4% der Brut weiblich waren. Ein so hoher Anteil weiblicher Brut konnte bislang nicht erreicht werden und wäre für züchterische Zwecke ausreichend.

Beyond biofuels: jatropha’s multiple uses for farmers in East Africa

The jatropha plant produces seeds containing 25–40% oil by weight. This oil can be made into biodiesel. During the recent global fuel crisis, the price of crude oil peaked at over USD 130 per barrel. Jatropha attracted huge interest – it was touted as a wonder crop that could generate biodiesel oil on “marginal lands” in semi-arid areas. Its promise appeared especially great in East Africa. Today, however, jatropha’s value in East Africa appears to lie primarily in its multipurpose use by small-scale farmers, not in large-scale biofuel production.