983 resultados para Fire Propagation Modelling


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Light is generally regarded as the most likely cue used by zooplankton to regulate their vertical movements through the water column. However, the way in which light is used by zooplankton as a cue is not well understood. In this paper we present a mathematical model of diel vertical migration which produces vertical distributions of zooplankton that vary in space and time. The model is used to predict the patterns of vertical distribution which result when animals are assumed to adopt one of three commonly proposed mechanisms for vertical swimming. First, we assume zooplankton tend to swim towards a preferred intensity of light. We then assume zooplankton swim in response to either the rate of change in light intensity or the relative rate of change in light intensity. The model predicts that for all three mechanisms movement is fastest at sunset and sunrise and populations are primarily influenced by eddy diffusion at night in the absence of a light stimulus. Daytime patterns of vertical distribution differ between the three mechanisms and the reasons for the predicted differences are discussed. Swimming responses to properties of the light field are shown to be adequate for describing diel vertical migration where animals congregate in near surface waters during the evening and reside at deeper depths during the day. However, the model is unable to explain how some populations halt their ascent before reaching surface waters or how populations re-congregate in surface waters a few hours before sunrise, a phenomenon which is sometimes observed in the held. The model results indicate that other exogenous or endogenous factors besides light may play important roles in regulating vertical movement.

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Purlin-sheeting systems used for roofs and walls commonly take the form of cold-formed channel or zed section purlins, screw-connected to corrugated sheeting. These purlin-sheeting systems have been the subject of numerous theoretical and experimental investigations over the past three decades, but the complexity of the systems has led to great difficulty in developing a sound and general model. This paper presents a non-linear elasto-plastic finite element model, capable of predicting the behaviour of purlin-sheeting systems without the need for either experimental input or over simplifying assumptions. The model incorporates both the sheeting and the purlin, and is able to account for cross-sectional distortion of the purlin, the flexural and membrane restraining effects of the sheeting, and failure of the purlin by local buckling or yielding. The validity of the model is shown by its good correlation with experimental results. A simplified version of this model, which is more suitable for use in a design environment, is presented in a companion paper. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

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A number of theoretical and experimental investigations have been made into the nature of purlin-sheeting systems over the past 30 years. These systems commonly consist of cold-formed zed or channel section purlins, connected to corrugated sheeting. They have proven difficult to model due to the complexity of both the purlin deformation and the restraint provided to the purlin by the sheeting. Part 1 of this paper presented a non-linear elasto plastic finite element model which, by incorporating both the purlin and the sheeting in the analysis, allowed the interaction between the two components of the system to be modelled. This paper presents a simplified version of the first model which has considerably decreased requirements in terms of computer memory, running time and data preparation. The Simplified Model includes only the purlin but allows for the sheeting's shear and rotational restraints by modelling these effects as springs located at the purlin-sheeting connections. Two accompanying programs determine the stiffness of these springs numerically. As in the Full Model, the Simplified Model is able to account for the cross-sectional distortion of the purlin, the shear and rotational restraining effects of the sheeting, and failure of the purlin by local buckling or yielding. The model requires no experimental or empirical input and its validity is shown by its goon con elation with experimental results. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

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Field studies have shown that the elevation of the beach groundwater table varies with the tide and such variations affect significantly beach erosion or accretion. In this paper, we present a BEM (Boundary Element Method) model for simulating the tidal fluctuation of the beach groundwater table. The model solves the two-dimensional flow equation subject to free and moving boundary conditions, including the seepage dynamics at the beach face. The simulated seepage faces were found to agree with the predictions of a simple model (Turner, 1993). The advantage of the present model is, however, that it can be used with little modification to simulate more complicated cases, e.g., surface recharge from rainfall and drainage in the aquifer may be included (the latter is related to beach dewatering technique). The model also simulated well the field data of Nielsen (1990). In particular, the model replicated three distinct features of local water table fluctuations: steep rising phase versus flat falling phase, amplitude attenuation and phase lagging.

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Izenman and Sommer (1988) used a non-parametric Kernel density estimation technique to fit a seven-component model to the paper thickness of the 1872 Hidalgo stamp issue of Mexico. They observed an apparent conflict when fitting a normal mixture model with three components with unequal variances. This conflict is examined further by investigating the most appropriate number of components when fitting a normal mixture of components with equal variances.

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In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and methods for checking them are described. It is shown on a simple example how different modelling assumptions act on the model equations and their effect on the differential index of the resulted model is also indicated.

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Protein, amino acids and ammonium were the main forms of soluble soil nitrogen in the soil solution of a subtropical heathland (wallum). After fire, soil ammonium and nitrate increased 90- and 60-fold, respectively. Despite this increase in nitrate availability after fire, wallum species exhibited uniformly low nitrate reductase activities and low leaf and xylem nitrate, During waterlogging soil amino acids increased, particularly gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) which accounted for over 50% of amino nitrogen. Non-mycorrhizal wallum species were significantly (P < 0.05) N-15-enriched (0.3-4.3 parts per thousand) compared to species with mycorrhizal associations (ericoid-type, ecto-, va-mycorrhizal) which were strongly depleted in N-15 (-6.3 to -1.8 parts per thousand). Lignotubers and roots had delta(15)N signatures similar to that of the leaves of respective species. The exceptions were fine roots of ecto-, ecto/va-, and ericoid type mycorrhizal species which were enriched in N-15 (0.1-2 4 parts per thousand). The delta(15)N signatures of delta(15)N(total soil N) and delta(15)N(soil NH4+) were in the range 3.7-4.5 parts per thousand, whereas delta(15)N(soil NO3-) was significantly (P < 0.05) more enriched in N-15 (9.2-9.8 parts per thousand). It is proposed that there is discrimination against N-15 during transfer of nitrogen from fungal to plant partner. Roots of selected species incorporated nitrogen sources in the order of preference: ammonium > glycine > nitrate. The exception were proteoid roots of Hakea (Proteaceae) which incorporated equal amounts of glycine and ammonium.

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The successful elimination of vectorial and transfusional transmission of Chagas` disease from some countries is a result of the reduction of domestic density of the primary vector Triatoma infestans, of almost 100% of coverage in blood serological selection and to the fact that the basic reproductive number of Chagas` disease is very close to one (1.25). Therefore, congenital transmission is currently the only way of acquiring Chagas` Disease in such regions. In this paper we propose a model of congenital transmission of Chagas` disease. Its aim is to provide an estimation of the time period it will take to eliminate this form of transmission in regions where vetorial transmission was reduced to close to zero, like in Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In immediate fire deaths, pulmonary injury may be the main source of mortality, being important to document the histologic findings for the purpose of excluding other modes of death, such as from asphyxia with no gross findings. In this context, a group of morphologic determinants have been targeted with useful makers of pulmonary injury. To facilitate the determination of whether an individual was deceased before the start of a fire and validate the importance of parenchymal alterations in pulmonary injury in fire deaths, we studied lungs in victims of fire (N = 28) and suffocation (N = 40), creating a mathematical model using cluster analysis. For this purpose, a semiquantitative analysis of the distal parenchyma was performed to evaluate the amount of bronchiolar dilatation, overinsufflation (ductal and alveolar), collapse (ductal and alveolar), passive congestion, alveolar edema, and hemorrhage (interstitial and alveolar). These 7 histologic determinants were useful to discriminate fire (bronchiolar dilatation, ductal overinsuflation, alveolar overinsuflation, alveolar hemorrhage) from suffocation lung injuries (alveolar collapse, congestion, and edema). We conclude that these determinants should be included in the routine of forensic pathology.

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Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.