794 resultados para Estimations


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A low power consumption 2 x 2 thermo-optic switch with fast response was fabricated on silicon-on-insulator by anisotropy chemical etching. Blocking trenches were etched on both sides of the phase-shifting arms to shorten device length and reduce power consumption. Thin top cladding layer was grown to reduce power consumption and switching time. The device showed good characteristics, including a low switching power of 145 mW and a fast switching speed of 8 +/- 1 mus, respectively. Two-dimensional finite element method was applied to simulate temperature field in the phase-shifting arm instead of conventional one-dimensional method. According to the simulated result, a new two-dimensional index distribution of phase-shifting arm was determined. Consequently finite-difference beam propagation method was employed to simulate the light propagation in the switch, and calculate the power consumption as well as the switching speed. The experimental results were in good agreement with the theoretical estimations. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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An eigenfunction expansion-variational method based on a unit cell is developed to deal with the steady-state heat conduction problem of doubly-periodic fiber reinforced composites with interfacial thermal contact resistance or coating. The numerical results show a rapid convergence of the present method. The present solution provides a unified first-order approximation formula of the effective thermal conductivity for different interfacial characteristics and fiber distributions. A comparison with the present high-order results, available experimental data and micromechanical estimations demonstrates that the first-order approximation formula is a good engineering closed-form formula. An engineering equivalent parameter reflecting the overall influence of the thermal conductivities of the matrix and fibers and the interfacial characteristic on the effective thermal conductivity, is found. The equivalent parameter can greatly simplify the complicated relation of the effective thermal conductivity to the internal structure of a composite. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We address the problem of the rectifying effect of heat conduction at macroscopic size. A design for a macroscopic thermal rectifier based on the macroscopic thermal conductivity of materials is introduced, and then realizations of the design are shown by numerical simulations and phenomenological estimations.

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We report the measurements of relative cross sections for single capture (SC), double capture (DC), single ionization (SI), double ionization (DI), and transfer ionization (TI) in collisions of Xe23+ ions with helium atoms in the velocity range of 0.65-1.32 a.u. The relative cross sections show a weak velocity dependence. The cross-section ratio of double-(DE) to single-electron (SE) removal from He, sigma(DE)/sigma(SE), is about 0.45. Single capture is the dominant reaction channel which is followed by transfer ionization, while only very small probabilities are found for pure ionization and double capture. The present experimental data are in satisfactory agreement with the estimations by the extended classical over-barrier (ECB) model..

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Turnover of soil organic matter (SOM) is coupled to the cycling of nutrients in soil through the activity of soil microorganisms. Biological availability of organic substrate in soil is related to the chemical quality of the organic material and to its degree of physical protection. SOM fractions can provide information on the turnover of organic matter (OM), provided the fractions can be related to functional or structural components in soil. Ultrasonication is commonly used to disrupt the soil structure prior to physical fractionation according to particle size, but may cause redistribution of OM among size fractions. The presence of mineral particles in size fractions can complicate estimations of OM turnover time within the fractions. Densiometric separation allows one to physically separate OM found within a specific size class from the heavier-density mineral particles. Nutrient contents and mineralization potential were determined for discrete size/density OM fractions isolated from within the macroaggregate structure of cultivated grassland soils. Eighteen percent of the total soil C and 25% of the total soil N in no-till soil was associated with fine-silt size particles having a density of 2.07-2.21 g/cm3 isolated from inside macroaggregates (enriched labile fraction or ELF). The amount of C and N sequestered in the ELF fraction decreased as the intensity of tillage increased. The specific rate of mineralization (mug net mineral N/mug total N in the fraction) for macroaggregate-derived ELF was not different for the three tillage treatments but was greater than for intact macroaggregates. The methods described here have improved our ability to quantitatively estimate SOM fractions, which in turn has increased our understanding of SOM dynamics in cultivated grassland systems.

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Air and shallow soil temperature in forest site are important factors impacting carbon cycle and plant physiology of the ecosystem.It is an effective method to estimating these temperatures by the recordings at neighboring meteorological station.The estimations will fill the gap of micrometeorological measurements in forest area.An empirical model to estimate the air temperature in the crown and soil temperature at 5 and 20 cm depth in the mixed forest of broad_leaved and Korean_pine was established,according to the recordings at adjacent meteorological station.The effects of seasons and snow coverage were taken into account in model establishment.The results showed that estimations were well accordance with the measurements.

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The lithosphere behaves as an elastic thin plate overlying a weak fluid. When loaded by topography, it deflects to compensate the topography and isostasy is achieved. The response of the plate is often characterized by the flexural rigidity, or equivalently, by the effective elastic thickness(EET). The relationships between gravity and topography have commonly been employed to investigate quantitively the isostatic compensation of the lithosphere. Cross-spectral techniques have been developed to estimate the admittance and coherence between gravity and topography. The observed admittance and coherence functions, when compared with theoretical admittance and coherence computed for various models and parameters, can provide an estimate of the effective elastic thickness. As for coherence, the wavelength at which the coherence drops from approaching unity at long wavelengths to value approaching zero at short wavelengths is a measure of the rigidity of the lithosphere. This research takes advantage of the high-resolution gravity and topography data in Erdos. Using the coherence technique, we have estimated the effective elastic thickness of this region. Subsurface loads are also considered in our calculation. When the admittance between topography and gravity is obtained, we can filter the topography to give an estimate of gravity anomaly. This would be very important when the gravity data is scarce. Several other regions of China have been selected to investigate the effective elastic thickness of lithosphere. We compare those result with lithosphere thickness obtained through seismological technique and heat flow of the region. We find the effective elastic thickness is always smaller than the seismogenic thickness. This is due to what the effective elastic thickness reflects is only the up elastic part of the lithosphere. And we also find there is some degree of correlation between effective elastic thickness and heat flow. This suggests EET is probably controlled by the thermal state of the lithosphere and correlates with their tectonic age. Thus the estimations of the effective elastic thickness of lithosphere can help to investigate geophysical features of active tectonics of continental lithosphere.

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In exploration seismology, the geologic target of oil and gas reservoir in complex medium request the high accuracy image of the structure and lithology of the medium. So the study of the prestack image and the elastic inversion of seismic wave in the complex medium come to the leading edge. The seismic response measured at the surface carries two fundamental pieces of information: the propagation effects of the medium and the reflections from the different layer boundaries in the medium. The propagation represent the low-wavenumber component of the medium, it is so-called the trend or macro layering, whereas the reflections represent the high-wavenumber component of the medium, it is called the detailed or fine layering. The result of migration velocity analysis is the resolution of the low-wavenumber component of the medium, but the prestack elastic inversion provided the resolution of the high-wavvenumber component the medium. In the dissertation, the two aspects about the migration velocity estimation and the elastic inversion have been studied.Firstly, any migration velocity analysis methods must include two basic elements: the criterion that tell us how to know whether the model parameters are correct and the updating that tell us how to update the model parameters when they are incorrect, which are effected on the properties and efficiency of the velocity estimation method. In the dissertation, a migration velocity analysis method based on the CFP technology has been presented in which the strategy of the top-down layer stripping approach are adapted to avoid the difficult of the selecting reduce .The proposed method has a advantage that the travel time errors obtained from the DTS panel are defined directly in time which is the difference with the method based on common image gather in which the residual curvature measured in depth should be converted to travel time errors.In the proposed migration velocity analysis method, the four aspects have been improved as follow:? The new parameterization of velocity model is provided in which the boundaries of layers are interpolated with the cubic spline of the control location and the velocity with a layer may change along with lateral position but the value is calculated as a segmented linear function of the velocity of the lateral control points. The proposed parameterization is suitable to updating procedure.? The analytical formulas to represent the travel time errors and the model parameters updates in the t-p domain are derived under local lateral homogeneous. The velocity estimations are iteratively computed as parametric inversion. The zero differential time shift in the DTS panel for each layer show the convergence of the velocity estimation.? The method of building initial model using the priori information is provided to improve the efficiency of velocity analysis. In the proposed method, Picking interesting events in the stacked section to define the boundaries of the layers and the results of conventional velocity analysis are used to define the velocity value of the layers? An interactive integrate software environment with the migration velocity analysis and prestack migration is built.The proposed method is firstly used to the synthetic data. The results of velocity estimation show both properties and efficiency of the velocity estimation are very good.The proposed method is also used to the field data which is the marine data set. In this example, the prestack and poststack depth migration of the data are completed using the different velocity models built with different method. The comparison between them shows that the model from the proposed method is better and improves obviously the quality of migration.In terms of the theoretical method of expressing a multi-variable function by products of single-variable functions which is suggested by Song Jian (2001), the separable expression of one-way wave operator has been studied. A optimization approximation with separable expression of the one-way wave operator is presented which easily deal with the lateral change of velocity in space and wave number domain respectively and has good approach accuracy. A new prestack depth migration algorithm based on the optimization approximation separable expression is developed and used to testing the results of velocity estimation.Secondly, according to the theory of the seismic wave reflection and transmission, the change of the amplitude via the incident angle is related to the elasticity of medium in the subsurface two-side. In the conventional inversion with poststack datum, only the information of the reflection operator at the zero incident angles can be used. If the more robust resolutions are requested, the amplitudes of all incident angles should be used.A natural separable expression of the reflection/transmission operator is represented, which is the sum of the products of two group functions. One group function vary with phase space whereas other group function is related to elastic parameters of the medium and geological structure.By employing the natural separable expression of the reflection/transmission operator, the method of seismic wave modeling with the one-way wave equation is developed to model the primary reflected waves, it is adapt to a certain extent heterogeneous media and confirms the accuracy of AVA of the reflections when the incident angle is less than 45'. The computational efficiency of the scheme is greatly high.The natural separable expression of the reflection/transmission operator is also used to construct prestack elastic inversion algorithm. Being different from the AVO analysis and inversion in which the angle gathers formed during the prstack migration are used, the proposed algorithm construct a linear equations during the prestack migration by the separable expression of the reflection/transmission operator. The unknowns of the linear equations are related to the elasticity of the medium, so the resolutions of them provided the elastic information of the medium.The proposed method of inversion is the same as AVO inversion in , the difference between them is only the method processing the amplitude via the incident angle and computational domain.

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Background: Elective repeat caesarean delivery (ERCD) rates have been increasing worldwide, thus prompting obstetric discourse on the risks and benefits for the mother and infant. Yet, these increasing rates also have major economic implications for the health care system. Given the dearth of information on the cost-effectiveness related to mode of delivery, the aim of this paper was to perform an economic evaluation on the costs and short-term maternal health consequences associated with a trial of labour after one previous caesarean delivery compared with ERCD for low risk women in Ireland.Methods: Using a decision analytic model, a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was performed where the measure of health gain was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a six-week time horizon. A review of international literature was conducted to derive representative estimates of adverse maternal health outcomes following a trial of labour after caesarean (TOLAC) and ERCD. Delivery/procedure costs derived from primary data collection and combined both "bottom-up" and "top-down" costing estimations.Results: Maternal morbidities emerged in twice as many cases in the TOLAC group than the ERCD group. However, a TOLAC was found to be the most-effective method of delivery because it was substantially less expensive than ERCD ((sic)1,835.06 versus (sic)4,039.87 per women, respectively), and QALYs were modestly higher (0.84 versus 0.70). Our findings were supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Conclusions: Clinicians need to be well informed of the benefits and risks of TOLAC among low risk women. Ideally, clinician-patient discourse would address differences in length of hospital stay and postpartum recovery time. While it is premature advocate a policy of TOLAC across maternity units, the results of the study prompt further analysis and repeat iterations, encouraging future studies to synthesis previous research and new and relevant evidence under a single comprehensive decision model.

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This paper analyzes the robustness of the estimate of a positive productivity shock on hours to the presence of a possible unit root in hours. Estimations in levels or in first differences provide opposite conclusions. We rely on an agnostic procedure in which the researcher does not have to choose between a specification in levels or in first differences. We find that a positive productivity shock has a negative impact effect on hours, but the effect is much shorter lived, and disappears after two quarters. The effect becomes positive at business-cycle frequencies, although it is not significant. © 2005 Cambridge University Press.

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A model to estimate the mean monthly growth of Crassostrea virginica oysters in Chesapeake Bay was developed. This model is based on the classic von Bertalanffy growth function, however the growth constant is changed every monthly timestep in response to short term changes in temperature and salinity. Using a dynamically varying growth constant allows the model to capture seasonal oscillations in growth, and growth responses to changing environmental conditions that previous applications of the von Bertalanffy model do not capture. This model is further expanded to include an estimation of Perkinsus marinus impacts on growth rates as well as estimations of ecosystem services provided by a restored oyster bar over time. The model was validated by comparing growth estimates from the model to oyster shell height observations from a variety of restoration sites in the upper Chesapeake Bay. Without using the P. marinus impact on growth, the model consistently overestimates mean oyster growth. However, when P. marinus effects are included in the model, the model estimates match the observed mean shell height closely for at least the first 3 years of growth. The estimates of ecosystem services suggested by this model imply that even with high levels of mortality on an oyster reef, the ecosystem services provided by that reef can still be maintained by growth for several years. Because larger oyster filter more water than smaller ones, larger oysters contribute more to the filtration and nutrient removal ecosystem services of the reef. Therefore a reef with an abundance of larger oysters will provide better filtration and nutrient removal. This implies that if an oyster restoration project is trying to improve water quality through oyster filtration, it is important to maintain the larger older oysters on the reef.

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Trust is a complex concept that has increasingly been debated in academic research (Kramer and Tyler, 1996). Research on 'trust and leadership' (Caldwell and Hayes, 2007) has suggested, unsurprisingly, that leadership behaviours influence 'follower' perceptions of leaders' trustworthiness. The development of 'ethical stewardship' amongst leaders may foster high trust situations (Caldwell, Hayes, Karri and Bernal, 2008), yet studies on the erosion of teacher professionalism in UK post-compulsory education have highlighted the distrust that arguably accompanies 'new managerialism', performativity and surveillance within a climate of economic rationalisation established by recent deterministic skills-focused government agendas for education (Avis, 2003; Codd, 1999, Deem, 2004, DFES, 2006). Given the shift from community to commercialism identified by Collinson and Collinson (2005) in a global economic environment characterised by uncertainty and rapid change, trust is, simultaneously, increasingly important and progressively both more fragile and limited in a post compulsory education sector dominated by skills-based targets and inspection demands. Building on such prior studies, this conference paper reports on the analysis of findings from a 2007-8 funded research study on 'trust and leadership' carried out in post-compulsory education. The research project collected and analysed case study interview and survey data from the lifelong learning sector, including selected tertiary, further and higher education (FE and HE) institutions. We interviewed 18 UK respondents from HE and FE, including principals, middle managers, first line managers, lecturers and researchers, supplementing and cross-checking this with a small number of survey responses (11) on 'trust and leadership' and a larger number (241) of survey responses on more generalised leadership issues in post-compulsory education. A range of facilitators and enablers of trust and their relationship to leadership were identified and investigated. The research analysed the ways in which interviewees defined the concept of 'trust' and the extent to which they identified that trust was a mediating factor affecting leadership and organisational performance. Prior literature indicates that trust involves a psychological state in which, despite dependency, risk and vulnerability, trustors have some degree of confident expectation that trustees will behave in benevolent rather than detrimental ways. The project confirmed the views of prior researchers (Mayer, Davis and Schoorman, 1995) that, since trust inevitably involves potential betrayal, estimations of leadership 'trustworthiness' are based on followers' cognitive and affective perceptions of the reliability, competence, benevolence and reputation of leaders. During the course of the interviews it also became clear that some interviewees were being managed in more or less transaction-focused, performative, audit-dominated cultures in which trust was not regarded as particularly important: while 'cautious trust' existed, collegiality flourished only marginally in small teams. Economic necessity and survival were key factors influencing leadership and employee behaviours, while an increasing distance was reported between senior managers and their staff. The paper reflects on the nature of the public sector leadership and management environment in post-compulsory education reported by interviewees and survey respondents. Leadership behaviours to build trust are recommended, including effective communication, honesty, integrity, authenticity, reliability and openness. It was generally felt that building trust was difficult in an educational environment largely determined by economic necessity and performativity. Yet, despite this, the researchers did identify a number of examples of high trust leadership situations that are worthy of emulation.

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The performance of four common estimators of diversity are investigated using calanoid copepod data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey. The region of the North Atlantic and the North Sea was divided into squares of 400 nautical miles for each 2-month period. For each 144 possible cases, Pielou's pooled quadrat method was performed with the aims of determining asymptotic diversity and investigating the CPR sample-size dependence of diversity estimators. It is shown that the performance of diversity indices may greatly vary in space and time (at a seasonal scale). This dependence is more pronounced in higher diverse environments and when the sample size is small. Despite results showing that all estimators underestimate the `actual' diversity, comparison of sites remained reliable from a few pooled CPR samples. Using more than one CPR sample, the Gini coefficient appears to be a better diversity estimator than any other indices and spatial or temporal comparisons are highly satisfactory. In situations where comparative studies are needed but only one CPR sample is available, taxonomic richness was the preferred method of estimating diversity. Recommendations are proposed to maximise the efficiency of diversity estimations with the CPR data.

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The distribution of dissolved, soluble and colloidal fractions of Al and Ti was assessed by ultrafiltration studies in the upper water column of the eastern tropical North Atlantic. The dissolved fractions of both metals were found to be dominated by the soluble phase smaller than 10 kDa. The colloidal associations were very low (0.2–3.4%) for Al and not detectable for Ti. These findings are in some contrast to previous estimations for Ti and to the predominant occurrence of both metals as hydrolyzed species in seawater. However, low tendencies to form inorganic colloids can be expected, as in seawater dissolved Al and dissolved Ti are present within their inorganic solubility levels. In addition, association with functional organic groups in the colloidal phase is unlikely for both metals. Vertical distributions of the dissolved fractions showed surface maxima with up to 43 nM of Al and 157 pM of Ti, reflecting their predominant supply from atmospheric sources to the open ocean. In the surface waters, excess dissolved Al over dissolved Ti was present compared to the crustal source, indicating higher solubility and thus elevated inputs of dissolved Al from atmospheric mineral particles. At most stations, subsurface minima of Al and Ti were observed and can be ascribed to scavenging processes and/or biological uptake. The dissolved Al concentrations decreased by 80–90% from the surface maximum to the subsurface minimum. Estimated residence times in the upper 100 m of the water column ranged between 1.6 and 4 years for dissolved Al and between 14 and 17 years for dissolved Ti. The short residence times are in some contrast to the low colloidal associations of Al and Ti and the assumed role of colloids as intermediates in scavenging processes. This suggests that either the removal of both metals occurs predominantly via direct transfer of the hydrolyzed species into the particulate fraction or that the colloidal phase is rapidly turned over in the upper water column.

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Mechanistic models such as those based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory are emergent ecomechanics tools to investigate the extent of fitness in organisms through changes in life history traits as explained by bioenergetic principles. The rapid growth in interest around this approach originates from the mechanistic characteristics of DEB, which are based on a number of rules dictating the use of mass and energy flow through organisms. One apparent bottleneck in DEB applications comes from the estimations of DEB parameters which are based on mathematical and statistical methods (covariation method). The parameterisation process begins with the knowledge of some functional traits of a target organism (e. g. embryo, sexual maturity and ultimate body size, feeding and assimilation rates, maintenance costs), identified from the literature or laboratory experiments. However, considering the prominent role of the mechanistic approach in ecology, the reduction of possible uncertainties is an important objective. We propose a revaluation of the laboratory procedures commonly used in ecological studies to estimate DEB parameters in marine bivalves. Our experimental organism was Brachidontes pharaonis. We supported our proposal with a validation exercise which compared life history traits as obtained by DEBs (implemented with parameters obtained using classical laboratory methods) with the actual set of species traits obtained in the field. Correspondence between the 2 approaches was very high (>95%) with respect to estimating both size and fitness. Our results demonstrate a good agreement between field data and model output for the effect of temperature and food density on age-size curve, maximum body size and total gamete production per life span. The mechanistic approach is a promising method of providing accurate predictions in a world that is under in creasing anthropogenic pressure.