Economic transition in Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States

Fifteen years ago, twenty-seven countries in Europe and Central Asia embarked on their economic transition paths. For some, the outcome was a considerable success. Several others are still struggling to shed the inheritance of the past and to correct more recent policy mistakes. Why were post-Communist recessions so long in some countries and growth disappointing? Why was fiscal performance so different? Was democracy a factor, which facilitated reforms or rather slowed them down? This book discusses these questions in the context of new empirical evidence, including a critical examination of the main themes in the economics of transition.

The influence of newer member states in the European Union:the case of Poland and the Eastern partnership

This article seeks to examine and assess the role of Poland in the early stages of the making of the Eastern Partnership of the European Union. First, it briefly reviews Poland's aims and ambitions with regard to the European Union's policy towards its eastern neighbours, both before and since it joined the European Union in 2004. Second, it describes and analyses the Eastern Partnership, including its added value for the European Neighbourhood Policy. Third, it draws on a range of interviews carried out by the authors in Brussels and Warsaw on Poland's role in the initial formation of the Eastern Partnership, as seen by its partners in the other member states and European institutions. In addition, it seeks to unpack some of the early stage lessons learnt by the Polish government about how best to achieve its ambitions in the European Union, and notes the remaining weaknesses of the Polish administration, particularly in the area of administrative capacity. © 2013 University of Glasgow.

Beyond the crisis: prospects for emerging Europe

This paper assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use crosscountry growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

Pivot or periphery? Xinjiang's regional development and Chinese-Central Asian relations at the century's end

Xinjiang, once described by Owen Lattimore as the "pivot of Asia", has played a strategically important role in China's national defense and security. Historically linked on the famous Silk Road with Central Asia, Xinjiang was crucial to East-West economic and cultural exchanges. During the period of Russian/Soviet expansion into Central Asia and Sino-Soviet rivalry, China's need for Xinjiang's defense and territorial integrity became paramount, and consequently Xinjiang's economy was relegated to the periphery.^ The demise of the Soviet Union--which resulted in the independence of five Central Asian states--and China's reform suggest dramatic new possibilities for Xinjiang's regional development as well as interregional cooperation. As China has begun to shift regional emphasis to the interior, Xinjiang's economic development will be accelerated. With the growth of Sino/Xinjiang-Central Asian relations, Xinjiang's importance will not only be borne out in terms of defense and security, but more significantly in terms of trade and economics. At the century's end and the beginning of the 21st century, Xinjiang will likely move away from the periphery and play an increasingly pivotal role in the economy. ^

Positionality and Comparisons: Critical Views on Qualitative Research across Asia

Ce cahier est basé sur la réflexion autobiographique de deux chercheuses ayant effectué des recherches qualitatives et ethnographiques, de 2008 à 2014, en Asie centrale et du Sud-­‐Est. Les expériences sur le terrain constituent des moyens de comparaisons dans le présent document. En mettant l’accent sur le positionnement sur le terrain, l’étude montre que, d’abord, il est essentiel de détenir une poste intermédiaire et de parler une langue locale afin de garantir un accès et de mener des activités de recherche sur le terrain. Deuxièmement, différentes régions prédéterminent des contextes culturels et politiques ponctuels qui, à leur tour, façonneraient la recherche en sciences sociales. Troisièmement, le fait d’être une femme présente à la fois des avantages et des inconvénients. Enfin, en termes de méthodologie, les stages et les entrevues se sont avérés des méthodes fiables pour la collecte des données empiriques sur les régions ci-­‐dessus mentionnées, sans pour autant permettre de bâtir la confiance.

Positionality and Comparisons: Critical Views on Qualitative Research across Asia

Ce cahier est basé sur la réflexion autobiographique de deux chercheuses ayant effectué des recherches qualitatives et ethnographiques, de 2008 à 2014, en Asie centrale et du Sud-­‐Est. Les expériences sur le terrain constituent des moyens de comparaisons dans le présent document. En mettant l’accent sur le positionnement sur le terrain, l’étude montre que, d’abord, il est essentiel de détenir une poste intermédiaire et de parler une langue locale afin de garantir un accès et de mener des activités de recherche sur le terrain. Deuxièmement, différentes régions prédéterminent des contextes culturels et politiques ponctuels qui, à leur tour, façonneraient la recherche en sciences sociales. Troisièmement, le fait d’être une femme présente à la fois des avantages et des inconvénients. Enfin, en termes de méthodologie, les stages et les entrevues se sont avérés des méthodes fiables pour la collecte des données empiriques sur les régions ci-­‐dessus mentionnées, sans pour autant permettre de bâtir la confiance.

Stay-green Drought Adaptation Trait Enhances Sorghum Production in Sub-tropical Australia, Central-Western India and Sub-Saharan Africa

Drought during grain filling is a common challenge for sorghum production in north-eastern Australia, central-western India, and sub-Saharan Africa. We show that the stay-green drought adaptation trait enhances sorghum grain yield under post-anthesis drought in these three regions. A positive relationship between stay-green and yield was generally found in breeding trials in north-eastern Australia that sampled 1668 unique hybrid combinations and 23 environments. Physiological studies in Australia also found that introgressing four individual stay-green (Stg1–4) quantitative trait loci (QTLs) into a senescent background reduced water demand before flowering and hence increased water supply during grain filling, resulting in higher grain yield relative to the senescent control. Studies in India found that various Stg QTLs affected both transpiration and transpiration efficiency, although these effects depended on the interaction between genetic background (S35 and R16) and individual QTLs. The yield variation unexplained by harvest index was related to transpiration efficiency in S35 (R2 = 0.29) and R16 (R2 = 0.72), and was related to total water extracted in S35 (R2 = 0.41) but not in R16. Finally, sixty-eight stay-green enriched lines were evaluated in six countries in sub-Saharan Africa during the 2013/14 season. Analysis of the data from Kenya indicates that stay-green and grain size were positively correlated at two sites: Kiboko (high yielding, r2=0.25) and Masongaleni (low yielding, r2=0.37). Together, these studies suggest that stay-green is a beneficial trait for sorghum production in the semi-arid tropics and is a consequence of traits altering the plant water budget.

Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants

Background: Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods: For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings: We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation: During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.

Action learning of online marketing via a global contest

Introduction: The Google Online Marketing Challenge is a global competition in which student teams run advertising campaigns for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) using AdWords, Google’s text-based advertisements. In 2008, its inaugural year, over 8,000 students and 300 instructors from 47 countries representing over 200 schools participated. The Challenge ran in undergraduate and graduate classes in disciplines such as marketing, tourism, advertising, communication and information systems. Combining advertising and education, the Challenge gives student hands-on experience in the increasingly important field of online marketing, engages them with local businesses and motivates them through the thrill of a global competition. Student teams receive US$200 in AdWords credits, Google’s premier advertising product that offers cost-per-click advertisements. The teams then recruit and work with a local business to devise an effective online marketing campaign. Students first outline a strategy, run a series of campaigns, and provide their business with recommendations to improve their online marketing. Teams submit two written reports for judging by 14 academics in eight countries. In addition, Google AdWords experts judge teams on their campaign statistics such as success metrics and account management. Rather than a marketing simulation against a computer or hypothetical marketing plans for hypothetical businesses, the Challenges has student teams develop and manage real online advertising campaigns for their clients and compete against peers globally.

Abundance of Natural Riparian Forests and Tree Plantations in the Amudarya Delta of Uzbekistan and their impact on emissions of soil-borne greenhouse gases

Through a forest inventory in parts of the Amudarya river delta, Central Asia, we assessed the impact of ongoing forest degradation on the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from soils. Interpretation of aerial photographs from 2001, combined with data on forest inventory in 1990 and field survey in 2003 provided comprehensive information about the extent and changes of the natural tugai riparian forests and tree plantations in the delta. The findings show an average annual deforestation rate of almost 1.3% and an even higher rate of land use change from tugai forests to land with only sparse tree cover. These annual rates of deforestation and forest degradation are higher than the global annual forest loss. By 2003, the tugai forest area had drastically decreased to about 60% compared to an inventory in 1990. Significant differences in soil GHG emissions between forest and agricultural land use underscore the impact of the ongoing land use change on the emission of soil-borne GHGs. The conversion of tugai forests into irrigated croplands will release 2.5 t CO2 equivalents per hectare per year due to elevated emissions of N2O and CH4. This demonstrates that the ongoing transformation of tugai forests into agricultural land-use systems did not only lead to a loss of biodiversity and of a unique ecosystem, but substantially impacts the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of GHG and soil C and N turnover processes.

A multi-genome analysis approach enables tracking of the invasion of a single Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia) clone throughout the New World

This study investigated the population genetics, demographic history and pathway of invasion of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA) from its native range in Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe to South Africa and the Americas. We screened microsatellite markers, mitochondrial DNA and endosymbiont genes in 504 RWA clones from nineteen populations worldwide. Following pathway analyses of microsatellite and endosymbiont data, we postulate that Turkey and Syria were the most likely sources of invasion to Kenya and South Africa, respectively. Furthermore, we found that one clone transferred between South Africa and the Americas was most likely responsible for the New World invasion. Finally, endosymbiont DNA was found to be a high resolution population genetic marker, extremely useful for studies of invasion over a relatively short evolutionary history time frame. This study has provided valuable insights into the factors that may have facilitated the recent global invasion by this damaging pest.

Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial land-use systems of the irrigated areas in the Aral Sea Basin

Land use and agricultural practices can result in important contributions to the global source strength of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). However, knowledge of gas flux from irrigated agriculture is very limited. From April 2005 to October 2006, a study was conducted in the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan, to quantify and compare emissions of N2O and CH4 in various annual and perennial land-use systems: irrigated cotton, winter wheat and rice crops, a poplar plantation and a natural Tugai (floodplain) forest. In the annual systems, average N2O emissions ranged from 10 to 150 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 with highest N2O emissions in the cotton fields, covering a similar range of previous studies from irrigated cropping systems. Emission factors (uncorrected for background emission), used to determine the fertilizer-induced N2O emission as a percentage of N fertilizer applied, ranged from 0.2% to 2.6%. Seasonal variations in N2O emissions were principally controlled by fertilization and irrigation management. Pulses of N2O emissions occurred after concomitant N-fertilizer application and irrigation. The unfertilized poplar plantation showed high N2O emissions over the entire study period (30 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1), whereas only negligible fluxes of N2O (<2 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1) occurred in the Tugai. Significant CH4 fluxes only were determined from the flooded rice field: Fluxes were low with mean flux rates of 32 mg CH4 m−2 day−1 and a low seasonal total of 35.2 kg CH4 ha−1. The global warming potential (GWP) of the N2O and CH4 fluxes was highest under rice and cotton, with seasonal changes between 500 and 3000 kg CO2 eq. ha−1. The biennial cotton–wheat–rice crop rotation commonly practiced in the region would average a GWP of 2500 kg CO2 eq. ha−1 yr−1. The analyses point out opportunities for reducing the GWP of these irrigated agricultural systems by (i) optimization of fertilization and irrigation practices and (ii) conversion of annual cropping systems into perennial forest plantations, especially on less profitable, marginal lands.

Seasonal occurrence and distribution of Bryde's whales in the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand

The Hauraki Gulf is a large, shallow embayment located north of Auckland City (36°51′S, 174°46′E), New Zealand. Bryde's whales (Balaenoptera edeni) are the most frequently observed balaenopterid in these waters. To assess the use of the Hauraki Gulf for this species, we examined the occurrence and distribution in relation to environmental parameters. Data were collected from a platform of opportunity during 674 daily surveys between March 2003 and February 2006. A total of 760 observations of Bryde's whales were recorded throughout the study period during 371 surveys. The number of Bryde's whales sighted/day was highest in winter, coinciding with the coolest median sea-surface temperature (14.6°C). Bryde's whales were recorded throughout the Hauraki Gulf in water depths ranging from 12.1–59.8 m (mean = 42.3, SD = 5.1). Cow–calf pairs were most frequently observed during the austral autumn in water depths of 29.9–53.9 m (mean = 40.8, SD = 5.2). Data from this study suggest Bryde's whales in the Hauraki Gulf exhibit a mix of both “inshore” and “offshore” characteristics from the Bryde's whales examined off the coast of South Africa. Based on complete mitochondrial DNA sequences, Sasaki et al. (2006) recognized two sister species of Bryde's whales: Balaenoptera brydei and B. edeni, with the latter including small-type, more coastal Bryde's whales from Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia. Their samples and samples in previous analyses of small-type whales, all originated from eastern and southeastern Asia. These authors did not include the forms of Bryde's whales that occur in other regions, e.g., in the Pacific off Peru (Valdivia et al. 1981), in the Atlantic off Brazil (Best 1977) and in the western Indian Ocean off South Africa (Best 1977). Recent genetic analysis using mtDNA from the “inshore” and “offshore” forms from South Africa confirms the offshore form is B. brydei, and establishes that the inshore form is more closely related to B. brydei than to B. edeni (Penry 2010). These different forms do vary considerably in their habitat use and ecology (refer to Table 1 for a detailed comparison between the South African inshore and offshore forms, as described by Best (1967, 1977) and the Bryde's whales from New Zealand (Wiseman 2008). Recent genetic analysis on the Bryde's whales in the Hauraki Gulf suggests they are B. brydei (Wiseman 2008). However, pending resolution of the uncertainty within and between species of this genus, we follow the Society of Marine Mammal's committee on taxonomy, who state that B. edeni applies to all Bryde's whales.

The burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders as risk factors for suicide : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) identified mental and substance use disorders as the 5th leading contributor of burden in 2010, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This estimate was incomplete as it excluded burden resulting from the increased risk of suicide captured elsewhere in GBD 2010's mutually exclusive list of diseases and injuries. Here, we estimate suicide DALYs attributable to mental and substance use disorders. Methods Relative-risk estimates of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders and the global prevalence of each disorder were used to estimate population attributable fractions. These were adjusted for global differences in the proportion of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders compared to other causes then multiplied by suicide DALYs reported in GBD 2010 to estimate attributable DALYs (with 95% uncertainty). Results Mental and substance use disorders were responsible for 22.5 million (14.8-29.8 million) of the 36.2 million (26.5-44.3 million) DALYs allocated to suicide in 2010. Depression was responsible for the largest proportion of suicide DALYs (46.1% (28.0%-60.8%)) and anorexia nervosa the lowest (0.2% (0.02%-0.5%)). DALYs occurred throughout the lifespan, with the largest proportion found in Eastern Europe and Asia, and males aged 20-30 years. The inclusion of attributable suicide DALYs would have increased the overall burden of mental and substance use disorders (assigned to them in GBD 2010 as a direct cause) from 7.4% (6.2%-8.6%) to 8.3% (7.1%-9.6%) of global DALYs, and would have changed the global ranking from 5th to 3rd leading cause of burden. Conclusions Capturing the suicide burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders allows for more accurate estimates of burden. More consideration needs to be given to interventions targeted to populations with, or at risk for, mental and substance use disorders as an effective strategy for suicide prevention.

Urban Form at the Edge : Proceedings from ISUF 2013 [Volume 1]

Urban morphology as a field of study has developed primarily in Europe and North America, and more recently emerging as a recurrent topic in China and South America. As a counterpoint to this centric view, the ISUF 2013 conference explored aspects of ‘urban form at the edge’. In particular the conference examined ‘off centre areas’ such as India, Africa, Middle East, Central Asia and Australasia which require innovative approaches to the study of traditional, as well as post-colonial and contemporary, morphologies. Broader interpretations of urban form at the edge focus on minor centres and suburbia, with their developing and transilient character; edge cities and regional centres; and new technologies and approaches that are developing alongside established methods, tools and theories of urban morphology...