Optimal compliance with emission constraints: dynamic characteristics and the choice of technique

The paper analyzes how to comply with an emission constraint, which restricts the use of an established energy technique, given the two options to save energy and to invest in two alternative energy techniques. These techniques differ in their deterioration rates and the investment lags of the corresponding capital stocks. Thus, the paper takes a medium-term perspective on climate change mitigation, where the time horizon is too short for technological change to occur, but long enough for capital stocks to accumulate and deteriorate. It is shown that, in general, only one of the two alternative techniques prevails in the stationary state, although, both techniques might be utilized during the transition phase. Hence, while in a static economy only one technique is efficient, this is not necessarily true in a dynamic economy.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

The emission reduction effect and economic impact of an energy tax vs. a carbon tax in China : a dynamic CGE model analysis

Chinese government commits to reach its peak carbon emissions before 2030, which requires China to implement new policies. Using a CGE model, this study conducts simulation studies on the functions of an energy tax and a carbon tax and analyzes their effects on macro-economic indices. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes. GDP will lose less than 0.8% with a carbon tax of 100, 50, or 10 RMB/ton CO2 or 5% of the delivery price of an energy tax. Thus, the loss of real disposable personal income is smaller. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon and energy tax induces more emission reductions with relatively smaller economic costs. With these taxes, the domestic competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved. Additionally, we found that the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant the achieved emission reductions.

Dynamic analysis of road vehicle-bridge systems under turbulent wind by means of Finite Element Models

When an automobile passes over a bridge dynamic effects are produced in vehicle and structure. In addition, the bridge itself moves when exposed to the wind inducing dynamic effects on the vehicle that have to be considered. The main objective of this work is to understand the influence of the different parameters concerning the vehicle, the bridge, the road roughness or the wind in the comfort and safety of the vehicles when crossing bridges. Non linear finite element models are used for structures and multibody dynamic models are employed for vehicles. The interaction between the vehicle and the bridge is considered by contact methods. Road roughness is described by the power spectral density (PSD) proposed by the ISO 8608. To consider that the profiles under right and left wheels are different but not independent, the hypotheses of homogeneity and isotropy are assumed. To generate the wind velocity history along the road the Sandia method is employed. The global problem is solved by means of the finite element method. First the methodology for modelling the interaction is verified in a benchmark. Following, the case of a vehicle running along a rigid road and subjected to the action of the turbulent wind is analyzed and the road roughness is incorporated in a following step. Finally the flexibility of the bridge is added to the model by making the vehicle run over the structure. The application of this methodology will allow to understand the influence of the different parameters in the comfort and safety of road vehicles crossing wind exposed bridges. Those results will help to recommend measures to make the traffic over bridges more reliable without affecting the structural integrity of the viaduct

Models for Lateral Dynamic Interaction of High-Speed Trains and Bridges

In this work a methodology for analysing the lateral coupled behavior of large viaducts and high-speed trains is proposed. The finite element method is used for the structure, multibody techniques are applied for vehicles and the interaction between them is established introducing wheel-rail nonlinear contact forces. This methodology is applied for the analysis of the railway viaduct of the R´ıo Barbantino, which is a very long and tall bridge in the north-west spanish high-speed line.

Mutual Information and Perplexity based Clustering of Dialogue Information for Dynamic Adaptation of Language Models

We present two approaches to cluster dialogue-based information obtained by the speech understanding module and the dialogue manager of a spoken dialogue system. The purpose is to estimate a language model related to each cluster, and use them to dynamically modify the model of the speech recognizer at each dialogue turn. In the first approach we build the cluster tree using local decisions based on a Maximum Normalized Mutual Information criterion. In the second one we take global decisions, based on the optimization of the global perplexity of the combination of the cluster-related LMs. Our experiments show a relative reduction of the word error rate of 15.17%, which helps to improve the performance of the understanding and the dialogue manager modules.

Mutual Information and Perplexity based Clustering of Dialogue Information for Dynamic Adaptation of Language Models

We present two approaches to cluster dialogue-based information obtained by the speech understanding module and the dialogue manager of a spoken dialogue system. The purpose is to estimate a language model related to each cluster, and use them to dynamically modify the model of the speech recognizer at each dialogue turn. In the first approach we build the cluster tree using local decisions based on a Maximum Normalized Mutual Information criterion. In the second one we take global decisions, based on the optimization of the global perplexity of the combination of the cluster-related LMs. Our experiments show a relative reduction of the word error rate of 15.17%, which helps to improve the performance of the understanding and the dialogue manager modules.

On the dynamic adaptation of language models based on dialogue information

We present an approach to adapt dynamically the language models (LMs) used by a speech recognizer that is part of a spoken dialogue system. We have developed a grammar generation strategy that automatically adapts the LMs using the semantic information that the user provides (represented as dialogue concepts), together with the information regarding the intentions of the speaker (inferred by the dialogue manager, and represented as dialogue goals). We carry out the adaptation as a linear interpolation between a background LM, and one or more of the LMs associated to the dialogue elements (concepts or goals) addressed by the user. The interpolation weights between those models are automatically estimated on each dialogue turn, using measures such as the posterior probabilities of concepts and goals, estimated as part of the inference procedure to determine the actions to be carried out. We propose two approaches to handle the LMs related to concepts and goals. Whereas in the first one we estimate a LM for each one of them, in the second one we apply several clustering strategies to group together those elements that share some common properties, and estimate a LM for each cluster. Our evaluation shows how the system can estimate a dynamic model adapted to each dialogue turn, which helps to improve the performance of the speech recognition (up to a 14.82% of relative improvement), which leads to an improvement in both the language understanding and the dialogue management tasks.

Lateral Dynamic Models for High-Speed Railway Bridges and Vehicles

The analysis of the running safety of railway vehicles on viaducts subject to strong lateral actions such as cross winds requires coupled nonlinear vehicle-bridge interaction models, capable to study extreme events. In this paper original models developed by the authors are described, based on finite elements for the structure, multibody and finite element models for the vehicle, and specially developed interaction elements for the interface between wheel and rail. The models have been implemented within ABAQUS and have full nonlinear capabilities for the structure, the vehicle and the contact interface. An application is developed for the Ulla Viaduct, a 105 m tall arch in the Spanish high-speed railway network. The dynamic analyses allow obtaining critical wind curves, which define the running safety conditions for a given train in terms of speed of circulation and wind speed

Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain

In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.

Foreground segmentation in depth imagery using depth and spatial dynamic models for video surveillance applications

Low-cost systems that can obtain a high-quality foreground segmentation almostindependently of the existing illumination conditions for indoor environments are verydesirable, especially for security and surveillance applications. In this paper, a novelforeground segmentation algorithm that uses only a Kinect depth sensor is proposedto satisfy the aforementioned system characteristics. This is achieved by combininga mixture of Gaussians-based background subtraction algorithm with a new Bayesiannetwork that robustly predicts the foreground/background regions between consecutivetime steps. The Bayesian network explicitly exploits the intrinsic characteristics ofthe depth data by means of two dynamic models that estimate the spatial and depthevolution of the foreground/background regions. The most remarkable contribution is thedepth-based dynamic model that predicts the changes in the foreground depth distributionbetween consecutive time steps. This is a key difference with regard to visible imagery,where the color/gray distribution of the foreground is typically assumed to be constant.Experiments carried out on two different depth-based databases demonstrate that theproposed combination of algorithms is able to obtain a more accurate segmentation of theforeground/background than other state-of-the art approaches.

Dynamic topic-based adaptation of language models: a comparison between different approaches

This paper presents a dynamic LM adaptation based on the topic that has been identified on a speech segment. We use LSA and the given topic labels in the training dataset to obtain and use the topic models. We propose a dynamic language model adaptation to improve the recognition performance in "a two stages" AST system. The final stage makes use of the topic identification with two variants: the first on uses just the most probable topic and the other one depends on the relative distances of the topics that have been identified. We perform the adaptation of the LM as a linear interpolation between a background model and topic-based LM. The interpolation weight id dynamically adapted according to different parameters. The proposed method is evaluated on the Spanish partition of the EPPS speech database. We achieved a relative reduction in WER of 11.13% over the baseline system which uses a single blackground LM.

Application of the dynamic models to the detection of imperfections in plate Structures

This paper is part of a set of publications related with the development of mathematical models aimed to simulate the dynamic input and output of experimental nondestructive tests in order to detect structural imperfections. The structures to be considered are composed by steel plates of thin thickness. The imperfections in these cases are cracks and they can penetrate either a significant part of the plate thickness or be micro cracks or superficial imperfections. The first class of cracks is related with structural safety and the second one is more connected to the structural protection to the environment, particularly if protective paintings can be deteriorated. Two mathematical groups of models have been developed. The first group tries to locate the position and extension of the imperfection of the first class of imperfections, i.e. cracks and it is the object of the present paper. Bending Kirchoff thin plate models belong to this first group and they are used to this respect. The another group of models is dealt with membrane structures under the superficial Rayleigh waves excitation. With this group of models the micro cracks detection is intended. In the application of the first group of models to the detection of cracks, it has been observed that the differences between the natural frequencies of the non cracked and the cracked structures are very small. However, geometry and crack position can be identified quite accurately if this comparison is carried out between first derivatives (mode rotations) of the natural modes are used instead. Finally, in relation with the analysis of the superficial crack existence the use of Rayleigh waves is very promising. The geometry and the penetration of the micro crack can be detected very accurately. The mathematical and numerical treatment of the generation of these Rayleigh waves present and a numerical application has been shown.

Slip complexity in dynamic models of earthquake faults.

We summarize recent evidence that models of earthquake faults with dynamically unstable friction laws but no externally imposed heterogeneities can exhibit slip complexity. Two models are described here. The first is a one-dimensional model with velocity-weakening stick-slip friction; the second is a two-dimensional elastodynamic model with slip-weakening friction. Both exhibit small-event complexity and chaotic sequences of large characteristic events. The large events in both models are composed of Heaton pulses. We argue that the key ingredients of these models are reasonably accurate representations of the properties of real faults.

Simple models for computing dynamic responses of complex frame structures /

"NSF/RA-780529."